Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Origin of COVID-19 |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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Posted: November 18 2021 at 10:22pm |
I'm looking forward to reading this, especially since I am now officially part of the University of Arizona!! To remind everyone, on January 8, 2020 I posted this to AFT: Posted: January 08 2020 at 6:09pm Starting to look like a corona-virus, just like SARS and MERS. I thought that was the most likely candidate. The seafood market at the center of the investigation also sold live animals such as poultry, bats, marmots, and snakes. In the SARS outbreak, bats harbored the virus, which passed it to palm civets as the intermediate host, which then transmitted the virus to people in the livemarket setting. Ye Gods, is there anything those people WON'T eat? No wonder they have so many exotic virus outbreaks! |
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CRS, DrPH
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95567 |
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CRS, DrPH I am just wondering if there have been other corona virus disease outbreaks in humans that did not get that big as SARS-1, SARS-2, MERS ? [url]https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.581569/full[/url] or https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.581569/full Yunnan miners in 2012....Also bats-camels MERS link should have seen more variants-proberbly not getting big.... SARS-2 was NOT an incident but an ongoing proces of corona-bat virusses jumping into other species...my impression. Laos-China border area may be one of the breeding grounds...for lots of problems... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Why do you think people are more inclined to believe that covid was man made? Is it because they can't get their heads around the whole virus/mutation/ variants,how viruses evolve by swapping RNA with other viruses, I mean it happens everytime a child is conceived !!!! except it's DNA...... maybe therein lies the problem...🤔!!!!! take care all 😷😉💉 |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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Thanks, DJ! Coronaviruses are widespread in humanity, most only cause mild common cold-like symptoms. They all seem to be "crossover" events, where an animal virus jumps species into humans, as did MERS, SARS and COVID-19. There are historical indications of past coronavirus outbreaks that caused devastating illness in humanity. This article is very good: In 2005, a research group from Belgium postulated that the ancestor of hCoV-OC43 – one of the current human coronaviruses responsible for a common cold – jumped from cattle to humans, leading to what they described as
The researchers argue that in the second half of the 19th century a highly infectious respiratory disease with a high mortality rate, now known as contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, affected cattle herds around the world. Even though most industrialised countries mounted massive culling operations in the period between 1870 and 1890 and were able to eradicate the disease by the beginning of the 20th century, it is plausible that the culling personnel, animal handlers and farmers could have been exposed to coronavirus-infected bovine respiratory secretions. |
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CRS, DrPH
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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If you REALLY want to explore the topic, check out this paper! https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC544107/pdf/1371-04.pdf This study provides evidence for viral promiscuity, a phe- nomenon that has already been reported for several animal coronaviruses, including BCoV, for which the potential to infect other species, including humans, has already been described (26, 66). The isolation of the SARS-CoV from masked palm civets and raccoon dogs indicates that this new type of coronavirus was also enzootic in an animal species before suddenly emerging as a virulent virus for humans. The characterization of the BCoV–HCoV-OC43 pair presented in this study provides insights into the process of adaptation of a nonhuman coronavirus to a human host, which is important for understanding the interspecies transmission events that led to the origin of the SARS outbreak. |
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CRS, DrPH
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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All that have been on this site for a long time , Realised that a pandemic was imminent ,and they understood the science behind it, This crossover between spices is not a new phenomenon ,it's happened before and im sure it will happen again, It's inevitable........... Take care all 😷😉💉 |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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True....however, attention on this site for many years (as I've read it) was focused upon influenza, and specifically avian influenza. I've taken many hours of pandemic training & preparedness work, and except for the bioterrorism stuff after 9/11 (which is waning in interest), all of the emphasis was upon influenza and emerging avian strains. Not much attention was given to swine flu or human variants. After the SARS near-pandemic of 2003, I was screaming loud and long about the need for public health to shift attention and focus upon coronavirus agents vs. influenza. Reasons included:
Therefore, we are hidebound by our scientific and institutional biases. There are MANY worse viruses that could leap from wildlife into humans, including Marburg Virus, NIPAH and others. COVID-19 was bad enough, if we didn't have our advanced vaccine machinery ready to make vaccines, we'd be in even worse trouble. Be safe, Chuck |
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CRS, DrPH
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Yes it was AFT for many years, Covid came out if left field as JacksDad said often a pandemic might ,as you say we all looking at Bird flu ,and we still should be. Never know when or where the next pandemic will come we from, Just keep watching and waiting for it . Take care all 😷😉💉 |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95567 |
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CRS, DrPH maybe to put your points in other words; The carpenter did know nails...so that is why he worked with nails... Flu (H5N1 a.o) has been seen as "the major risk"...Peak Prosperity/Chris Martenson once had a very good interview with I believe a virologist...She studied coronavirusses before SARS-1...But coronavirusses were hardly seen as interesting..she had to push for the subject to get it accepted for study... I believe what was it 90% of lifeforms on this globe are insects and smaller ? Virusses are not even seen as "life"since they need to reproduce in a host... If you would have to make a list of the known virusses you may learn there are allready millions-often with subtypes...Unknown virusses may be even more...(if you do not know what you are looking for you may not recognize it...). Underestimating the risks may be the biggest problem...SARS-2 was a relatively mild virus...acting in time could have prevented this pandemic. From Peak Prosperity (when it was worth watching) "It did not have to be this way"....and that may be the hardest part to accept...WE (humans) were the weakspot due to inaction... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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To those of us in the field, we were just waiting for another Chinese coronavirus disease like SARS (2003) to pop out. Reasons include:
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CRS, DrPH
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