UK Bird flu: The Secret Cabinet Document

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    Bird flu: the secret Cabinet document

Mon 3 Apr 2006

     �     More than 700,000 could die in worst-case bird flu scenario

     �     The figures were disclosed in a Cabinet Office briefing paper

     �     Army could be "too stretched to help" due to international 

"Key quote "Scientific modelling suggests that it may only take 2-3 weeks from the virus first entering the UK to its being widespread," - Cabinet Office paper

Story in full THE death toll from a bird flu pandemic in Britain could be more than 700,000, according to a confidential government report seen by The Scotsman.

The figure - far higher than previously stated - is contained in a Cabinet Office briefing paper prepared for emergency planning officials, which warns that the virus could strike the country in multiple "waves".

It also says the armed forces may not be available to help in an emergency because of Britain's extensive international military deployments.

Although ministers promised to order enough vaccine for the entire UK population, the document says that effective drugs "would not be available until at least four to six months after a pandemic had struck, which could be well after the first wave of illness in the UK". (EXCERPT)

The document warns that, once such an infection arrives in Britain, it could take only two weeks to become widespread. Issued in late February, it contains the latest updated projections for the spread of a "novel" form of the common flu virus to which people would have no immunity.

One of its central themes is the possibility that the virus could mutate again after an initial widespread infection, producing further pandemic waves. Those projections include a "reasonable worst-case scenario" in which multiple waves of the virus infect a total of 50 per cent of the population. At worst, the disease would be as powerful as the strain that caused the 1918 global pandemic, killing 2.5 per cent of those infected."

The key points

� The "reasonable worst-case scenario" of repeated "waves" of infection would mean 709,300 deaths from flu. The "base case" would mean 53,700 deaths.

� Planners must not rely on the armed forces being able to help with emergency management.

� Once the flu virus mutates into a "novel" strain, widespread infection could be reached in two weeks.

� An effective vaccine would not be available until at least four-to-six months after a pandemic. Only health service staff can be sure of priority access.

� The huge death toll could swamp mortuaries. Authorities should plan to stockpile bodies then bury them en masse.

http://news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=508792006

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Guests Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: UK Bird flu: The Secret Cabinet Document Posted: April 02 2006 at 8:10pm
	Bird flu: the secret Cabinet document Mon 3 Apr 2006 � More than 700,000 could die in worst-case bird flu scenario � The figures were disclosed in a Cabinet Office briefing paper � Army could be "too stretched to help" due to international "Key quote "Scientific modelling suggests that it may only take 2-3 weeks from the virus first entering the UK to its being widespread," - Cabinet Office paper Story in full THE death toll from a bird flu pandemic in Britain could be more than 700,000, according to a confidential government report seen by The Scotsman. The figure - far higher than previously stated - is contained in a Cabinet Office briefing paper prepared for emergency planning officials, which warns that the virus could strike the country in multiple "waves". It also says the armed forces may not be available to help in an emergency because of Britain's extensive international military deployments. Although ministers promised to order enough vaccine for the entire UK population, the document says that effective drugs "would not be available until at least four to six months after a pandemic had struck, which could be well after the first wave of illness in the UK". (EXCERPT) The document warns that, once such an infection arrives in Britain, it could take only two weeks to become widespread. Issued in late February, it contains the latest updated projections for the spread of a "novel" form of the common flu virus to which people would have no immunity. One of its central themes is the possibility that the virus could mutate again after an initial widespread infection, producing further pandemic waves. Those projections include a "reasonable worst-case scenario" in which multiple waves of the virus infect a total of 50 per cent of the population. At worst, the disease would be as powerful as the strain that caused the 1918 global pandemic, killing 2.5 per cent of those infected." The key points � The "reasonable worst-case scenario" of repeated "waves" of infection would mean 709,300 deaths from flu. The "base case" would mean 53,700 deaths. � Planners must not rely on the armed forces being able to help with emergency management. � Once the flu virus mutates into a "novel" strain, widespread infection could be reached in two weeks. � An effective vaccine would not be available until at least four-to-six months after a pandemic. Only health service staff can be sure of priority access. � The huge death toll could swamp mortuaries. Authorities should plan to stockpile bodies then bury them en masse. http://news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=508792006

loosecannon Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Valued Member Joined: February 11 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 33	Post Options Post Reply Quote loosecannon Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: April 02 2006 at 8:38pm
	As a "non-scientific, non-medical" layman I have trouble understanding how their predictions always seem to assume something on the scale of the 1918 pandemic as the "worse case" scenario. I've seen the optimistic view that the virus will moderate in lethality, but that looks like blue sky wishful thinking to me. How can they possibly expect the H5N1 virus to moderate from a +50% mortality rate down to 2.5% rate. (shaking my head in disbelievement at the "experts" predictions) Check out the CDC site. In their Pademic Timeline document they are talking about a pademic that could last for YEARS. Here's the last paragraph of the doc. "Globally and nationally, a pandemic might last for at least one year and up to three years, while disease outbreaks in local communities may last 5 to 10 weeks. Pandemics end simply because all or most susceptible persons within the population have contracted the infection and have either died, developed immunity or been vaccinated." http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3_flu-pandemic-timeline.htm Still prepping, but I'm starting to think we are totally screwed if it goes H2H, and with the number of genetic dice being rolled, I don't see what would stop H2H from coming up eventually. IMHO

Guests Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: April 02 2006 at 8:41pm
	Our society and environment are much more complex than in 1918. You can't make simple extropolations.