Suburban survivalists prepare for pandemic

WASHINGTON -- The more stories about avian flu appeared on the news, the more canned goods and bottled water found their way into Melanie Mattson's apartment.

Gradually, the 52-year-old writer from Falls Church, Va., gave over her spare bedroom to the growing emergency stockpile. If a pandemic arrives, Mattson hopes to have enough food, water and emergency supplies to see her and a few of her elderly neighbors through the catastrophe.

Avian flu is headed this way. U.S. health officials expect migratory birds to carry the lethal H5N1 flu strain to North America this year, endangering wild and domestic flocks. The threat to humans is less clear.

At the moment, the only way to catch bird flu is through very close contact with an infected bird. The disease does not spread easily from birds to humans, but when it does, the mortality rate tops 50 percent. Nearly 100 people have died of the disease, which bears an eerie resemblance to the 1918 influenza pandemic that killed millions worldwide.

The thought that H5N1 might someday mutate into a flu strain that could spread from human to human is terrifying enough to send health officials and ordinary citizens like Mattson into high alert.

A pandemic could drag on for weeks or months. Millions could die, tens of millions could fall ill and millions more would be unable or unwilling to leave their homes. Widespread absenteeism could endanger utilities and other basic services. State, federal and local emergency services would be strained to the limits.

"If you think about pandemic flu, think about 50 Katrinas," Mattson said. "The government's not going to be able to help us. We're going to be on our own."

State, federal and local governments and health officials are drawing up pandemic preparation plans. So are Mattson and thousands of other people who visit the online avian flu information network she co-founded, Flu Wiki.

As many as 15,000 people a day visit the online forum to swap news stories, debate avian flu theories and share tips about disaster preparedness. Founded less than a year ago, Flu Wiki has more than 1,200 pages of avian flu information, all of it contributed by members.

"Our motto is, don't panic -- prepare," Mattson said.

Preparations of another sort are under way at the Nitro-Pak Preparedness Center in Heber City, Utah. Last month, company owner Harry Weyandt decided to offer a line of avian flu survival gear. Sales are up 600 percent compared with March 2005, he said.

The avian flu supplies are the same sort of gear he sells to campers, boat owners looking to stock life rafts and people preparing for emergencies such as earthquakes, hurricanes or terrorist attacks.

First-aid kits. Freeze-dried food in bulk. Water purification equipment. Face masks -- the N95 versions recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention -- along with rubber gloves and hand sanitizer.

For $4,100, shoppers can buy enough freeze-dried food to supply one person for a year or a family of four for three months. For $7,999, Nitro-Pak will ship the Ultimate Family Survival Preparedness Pak, stocked with everything from food to gas masks to sanitation equipment.

The $1,699.99 two-person Emergency Reserve kit has been very popular, Weyandt said. Compact enough to store in the back of a closet or under a bed, the kit promises six weeks' worth of meals for two people, along with hospital masks, a 40-gallon water storage unit and a water purification system.

"Y2K really kind of took the steam out of the preparedness movement," said Weyandt, referring to fears that a computer glitch on the eve of the year 2000 would crash computers worldwide and lead to widespread panic and disorder. Any number of people found themselves sitting around on New Year's Day 2000 with a garage full of canned goods and toilet paper, for nothing.

Weyandt, who founded his company 20 years ago, said Hurricane Katrina kicked off a new nationwide interest in disaster preparedness that has shifted into worries about a possible influenza pandemic.

"We're seeing a lot more professionals ordering these days. We have doctors and lawyers placing orders," Weyandt said. "I had one guy who works for the CDC call. He said, 'Everybody here is stockpiling supplies.' And I said, 'Man, if the guys from the CDC are worried, maybe this is something more people should be worried about."'

Federal health officials have begun actively encouraging Americans to make pandemic preparations.

"The things you would do to prepare for a pandemic are the things you can do for any emergency," said Christine Pearson, spokeswoman for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. "The difference being that a hurricane, tornado or blizzard generally hits in a limited area for a limited time."

With a pandemic, she said, "you would need to plan for something that lasts for months."

Planning for bird flu