Did I just hear that right?

Please don't scare yourself with the present 50% case fatality rate. The avian flu has not yet mutated to an H2H form - which might well have a much lower rate, especially where good medical care is available. There also are still lots of unknown factors, such as the effectiveness of vaccines and antivirals on a mutated strain.

The 1 in 3 infected is from what you usually see in any influenza outbreak. Think back to this last winter how many people did you know who got the flu this year. Flu viruses are adept at transmission they are effecient little boogers, thats why its going to be pandemic

Let's not forget, the fatality rate to date is over 50%. That rate is sustained! My point is......All or most of those folks had the best care available, ventilators etc. And still over 50% died.  If it goes pandemic, very few of us will have access to the 10,000 ventilators in the US. Only about 10,000 of us. So, I would think that the fatality will be much greater in the end .....The fatality rate will actually increase as health care will not be as intensive as it has been for the folks that have already contracted the virus. If the final version of the virus weakens, like suggested by some scientists to below 50%, the final fatality percentage will still be higher because only a very few will have access to the best care. i.e. ventilators etc.

Hate to be gloom and doom, but it's important to realize this I think.

Scott

Yes, 10,000 ventilators. And according to officials they are already in use everyday for other health emergencies. The doctors will have to make tough decisions.....Do they take the 70 year old man off the ventilator for a 15 year old girl that has BF?

I read enough about those poor people in india going to crowded hospitals with their sick children and begging doctors to help them.  I will not be taking anyone to the hospital unless they have a broken leg or something.  The only reason i would do it then is because i don't think the hospitals are going to be much of a factor in this...if it hits.  There have been many "hints" that most people will never see a hospital.  They will be put into wards in schools or perhaps tents and such.  With 40% of the hospital personnel not willing to show up, do you really think the medical workers will be any help at all with this?  There have also been statements to the effect they expect many to have home care.  When someone gets to the ARDS stage with this there are very few survivors.  Without Tamiflu, and there is precious little of it, the chances are not good and Tamiflu is only good if taken in the first few hours.  Force fluids, keep the temps down and look for ways to cut the viral load.  We really don't have many otions in this.  Reread some of the reports and advisories on this....very little out there.

 I do not want to frighten any one. You can have 1 million ventilators  but it requires a skilled ICU Nurse to take care of the patient.  We are already at an extreame shortage of skilled nurses.  On top of that, ARDS is not that easy to reverse...mortality is high.  Best bet is to forget about the vents and rely on your own preps and isolation...if it should come to this.

Diane your right. My bad! I forgot to add a zero. Sorry. You are correct 100,000 ventilators. 10,000 was just too few. Not much sleep lately.
Sorry about that everyone.

Scott

The strike rate - percentage of the population to become infected - is estimated to be quite high because its a novel virus meaning we have no immunity.