659,887,218 deaths possible?

Bird flu is coverstory on Newsweek

Newsweek’s bird flu coverstory is good, though with some of the sensationalism that the media can’t help but interject.

No one knows why the virus suddenly spread into Europe this year or what it portends, although epidemiologists consider it an ominous development. “Something has happened to the relationship between the virus and wild birds that hadn’t happened before,” Osterholm said. Nevertheless, the only immediately obvious threat was to Europe’s waterfowl and poultry farms.

I was under the impression that migratory birds brought it, and that the infections have been expected for some time.

An interesting comment from the CDC, inline with what I’ve read in other places.

Public-health officials, though, worry that there’s too much emphasis in the media on the size of the Tami-flu stockpile. “I think it’s a complete misdirection of energy to be so focused on the issue of stockpiling,” CDC director Julie Gerberding said in an interview Friday. “There is no evidence that it will make a difference if we are hit with a pandemic.”

One suspects that the underlying reason for Tamiflu stockpiles is that governments and populations want to be seen as doing something… anything.

This entry was posted on Monday, October 24th, 2005 at 7:49 am and is filed under Prevention/Preparation. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

One Response to “Bird flu is coverstory on Newsweek”
Larry Wilson Says:

October 26th, 2005 at 1:00 pm
I agree completely with the CDC.

However, if one looks at the numbers of deaths from the Spanish Flu, about 1.7% of the infected, and compares that with H5N1 death rates so far (about 60%) the CDC numbers on deaths don’t add up.

We can expect over 1 billion deaths worldwide, though I can understand why the governments are not publicizing these numbers; the governments can do anything about the total numbers and to cause (more) panic now would not help anything.

Even if the governments of the world put an all out effort in, since migratory birds can carry the flu, and assume this remains true even after the flu acquires a gene to make it easily human-to-human transmissible, then no amount of quarantine will make much of a difference.

Housing is going to be really, really affordable!

One Response to "Bird flu is coverstory on Newsweek"
END OF ARTICLE



My opinion:

Actually I have heard the Spanish Flu death rate was 2.5% so why is the CDC saying the max. worldwide death count would be 150 million?

The world population counter is 6,598,872,189@ 10:15 A.M..1/24/06

Let's estimate 20% contract avian flu, that's 1,319,774,436.

Now let's estimate only 50% mortality compared to the present approx. 60%.

That's 659,887,218 deaths.

Any thoughts?

Mary Kay

Mary Kay;

Personally I would put the mortality rate higher just because of various factors. Such as 70% mortality rate among expecting mothers, 70-80% mortality among children. Poverty, and compromised immune systems would play heavily into the numbers also. Then there would be those who refused to consider that they or their families would be at risk. Also would these mortality rates include secondary death rates from Cholera, dysentery, starvation and those who survived the flu only to succumb to the results of the internal organ injuries caused by the flu?

Meewee

There is a thread on the  board about a BBC broadcast.

The posters are aghast over the reported 38% of people tested show antibodies for H5N1.  The only broad testing that I know that was done was in China and it was done years ago.  The exact date, I do not know, but could Google it if I could come up with the right search parameters

All this tells me is that there was some sort of mild H5N1 that spread in China at one time; OR, as others have suggested, China was preparing to use H5N1 is a biological weapon against the world and had started an aggressive vaccination program for their populace in advance. That sounds far fetched, but with totalitarian regimes, anything is possible. I was a Nuclear, Biological & Chemical Warfare Officer in the Navy and this is possible.  Not probable, but possible.

Could this new strain (of H5N1 that I call Sichuan Sheet) have escaped from a Biological Warfare Lab in western China?  Again, possible. Perhaps that is the reason why they refuse to release sequences from their most recent outbreaks in Mid 2005 to present.

It spread from China on wings with feathers.  The question is how did it start at Qinghai lakes? The sequences from China would tell the story, but they are not letting anybody see them..

I believe there have been multiple modes of transmission.  We know that Wild Birds have the Qinghai Lakes strain of Bird Flu.  We know that as they migrated west that the virus spread west, too.  Logical conclusion is that the Wild Birds spread the virus.

BUT, there is always the possibility that the Wild Birds are the victims, too. Certainly, the transportation of infected chickens across international borders might have spread the virus, too.  That is the reason why  many countries have quarantine provisions for all manner of imported animals.