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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Human-to-Human transmission confirmed

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    Posted: May 18 2006 at 11:15pm
Blind clusters.
 
 

CDC, WHO experts visit Indonesia to inspect H5N1 cluster

May 18, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – An international team of scientists from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) arrived today on Indonesia's Sumatra island to investigate the largest cluster to date of confirmed human cases of H5N1 avian influenza, according to news services.

In addition, the WHO reported today that a 75-year-old Egyptian woman died of H5N1 infection, becoming the sixth fatality in Egypt.

In a news release about the Indonesian cluster today, the WHO said the source of infection was not yet known for any of the cases. "The possibility of limited human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out," the agency said.

"A cluster is always serious," the WHO's Thomas Grein told Bloomberg news today after visiting North Sumatra. "This one by its sheer size and that it has occurred in an area where there have been no confirmed outbreaks is of course of interest."

In its statement today, the WHO gave some details on the cases in six extended family members from Kubu Sembelang village in the Karo district of North Sumatra—five of whom died—as well as on another Indonesian woman who died of avian flu in Surabaya in East Java. Her death was reported by news media yesterday.

In North Sumatra, the outbreak may have begun Apr 27 when a 37-year-old woman contracted a respiratory disease, which took her life May 4. However, no specimens were obtained from her body for confirmatory testing, but the WHO said she is considered the initial case in the cluster.

Her relatives, according to the WHO, constitute the six who tested positive for H5N1. The woman's 15-year-old son died of avian flu May 9, her 17-year-old son died May 12, her 10-year-old nephew died May 13, and her 28-year-old sister died May 10. The sister's 18-month-old daughter died May 14. In addition, her 25-year-old brother tested positive for H5N1 but is still alive.

These latest WHO confirmations raise Indonesia's case total to 40 (23 in 2006), with 31 deaths (20 in 2006), according to WHO data. Indonesia has reported by far the most cases and fatalities this year. Egypt has the second-most cases with 14 (6 deaths), and China has the second-highest death rate, with 7 deaths in 10 cases.

Although the WHO release about the cluster states that "If human-to-human transmission has occurred, it has not been either efficient or sustained," officials are concerned about the lack of an identified source for the virus.

"The source of exposure for the initial case is still under investigation, with exposure to infected poultry or an environment contaminated by their faeces considered the most plausible source," the agency said.

"The likely source of infection for the additional cases has not yet been determined," the statement continued. "Multiple hypotheses are being investigated. Apart from living in close proximity to each other, the cases in this cluster are known to have participated in a family gathering around 29 April. The cases may have acquired their infection from a shared environmental exposure yet to be identified."

"We have not yet found any evidence of the ongoing transmission among chickens in that area," said Shigeru Omi, WHO director for the Western Pacific region, as quoted in the Bloomberg story today. However, the story quoted Indonesia's agriculture minister as saying that 10 of 11 pigs tested in the district had antibodies to avian flu in their bloodstream, and about half of the 400 households in Kubu Sembelang raise pigs, chickens, and ducks.

Although the presence of antibodies in the pigs could signal a previous infection, "If the virus is in pigs, that would be a major concern," said Ton Schat, professor of virology and immunology at Cornell University, according to Bloomberg. Pigs are susceptible to both human and avian strains of influenza, and simultaneous infection with both types could allow viruses to trade genetic material, potentially giving rise to a hybrid that could spread among humans.

According to the WHO, instances of human-to-human H5N1 transmission have occurred, but in no case has the virus spread beyond people who have had close contact with an infected person, like family members.

In a Washington Post story today, Sari Setiogi, spokesperson for WHO's Indonesia office, said, "We are taking this very seriously. The good news is that, from our investigation to date, there's no evidence of further spread of the virus beyond the family."

Egyptian case

In Egypt, WHO officials confirmed that a 75-year-old woman became Egypt's sixth death among 14 human cases of avian influenza, an AFP article said today.

The woman, from Al-Minya in southern Egypt, contracted the disease from infected birds, according to WHO regional health regulation officer John Jabbour. "She was admitted into the hospital yesterday, and she died today," Jabbour said in the AFP story.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 18 2006 at 11:48pm
The article you cited for confirmation of H2H says nothing of the sort.  I would suggest changing the title of your thread.  It is misleading.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 18 2006 at 11:55pm
read it again
 

Although the presence of antibodies in the pigs could signal a previous infection, "If the virus is in pigs, that would be a major concern," said Ton Schat, professor of virology and immunology at Cornell University, according to Bloomberg. Pigs are susceptible to both human and avian strains of influenza, and simultaneous infection with both types could allow viruses to trade genetic material, potentially giving rise to a hybrid that could spread among humans.

According to the WHO, instances of human-to-human H5N1 transmission have occurred, but in no case has the virus spread beyond people who have had close contact with an infected person, like family members.

In a Washington Post story today, Sari Setiogi, spokesperson for WHO's Indonesia office, said, "We are taking this very seriously. The good news is that, from our investigation to date, there's no evidence of further spread of the virus beyond the family."

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 19 2006 at 5:22am
that is old news..
 
been going on from the begining"limited h2h  ,non efficent transmission"
 
so  ya i would say its missleading also
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Commonground Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 19 2006 at 5:35am
This comment is regarding the history of cases:

"According to the WHO, instances of human-to-human H5N1 transmission have occurred, but in no case has the virus spread beyond people who have had close contact with an infected person, like family members."

These comments are regarding the current situation:

In a news release about the Indonesian cluster today, the WHO said the source of infection was not yet known for any of the cases. "The possibility of limited human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out," the agency said.
"Although the WHO release about the cluster states that "If human-to-human transmission has occurred, it has not been either efficient or sustained," officials are concerned about the lack of an identified source for the virus.

It's especially important to be factual at this time, and I agree the title is misleading. Even though we assume it is H2H in this cluster, the WHO has not "officially" stated it. We need to keep the titles factual.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Scotty Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 19 2006 at 12:04pm
When, if, this thing goes genuinely H2H, we won't need to speculate. We won't move, we won't speak. We'll just gaze at our screens in total silence.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Glow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 19 2006 at 12:25pm
Scotty, I won't be gazinggggggg...I will be running up and down the supermarket isles like a mad women!...I'm almost completely prepped...but I did leave some things for the last minute.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Scotty Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 19 2006 at 12:45pm
I thought I was prepped but I know that I will be frantically topping up when the time comes. If the time comes.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 19 2006 at 12:50pm
Originally posted by Glow Glow wrote:

Scotty, I won't be gazinggggggg...I will be running up and down the supermarket isles like a mad women!...I'm almost completely prepped...but I did leave some things for the last minute.
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DAX COM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 19 2006 at 1:50pm
Originally posted by Scotty Scotty wrote:

When, if, this thing goes genuinely H2H, we won't need to speculate. We won't move, we won't speak. We'll just gaze at our screens in total silence.
I'll still be posting, lol.  People will going nuts and we will all be here for them.  It's what we do.  It's what we have been doing for months now. 
 
People will be coming here for local and regional reports, and good solid information and all of us are going to help them get it. 
 
I just added a second hub here today so that I can add more computers to the network here and when the time comes I'll have people on the comps around the clock.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Oisanatta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 19 2006 at 6:31pm
For what it is worth, the title is misleading.  I checked out this thread thinking, here it is, wow, let's check it out....and the news is the same as it has always been.

No sense repeating the comments of  the others who have said the same thing., other than to say the article was okay to read, but it was disappointing relative to the title of the thread.
The only thing worse than a brutal lie is the brutal truth. (M Twain) I waited patiently for the LORD; He turned to me and heard my cry. He lifted me out of the pit; He set my feet on a rock. Psalm40
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 19 2006 at 11:52pm
You can say what you like but this is the first confirmation I have seen saying there has been ANY H2H. It is from CIDRAP.
 

According to the WHO, instances of human-to-human H5N1 transmission have occurred, but in no case has the virus spread beyond people who have had close contact with an infected person, like family members.

 
 
The point is there has been H2H but the clusters are short.
 
Then they lengthen
 
Then it is pandemic.
 
Now we know what to look for dont we?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2006 at 4:38am
Exactly, that is how it starts...progressively worsens. Many are debating that the virus will evolve into a much less potent form of influenza but right not there is no evidence of that.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TCharley300 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2006 at 8:36am
I wouldn't get too hasty yet. You mis-read the article. Watch, listen, and prepare. But, This hasn't happened yet, and if it has, it has not sustained itself yet.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2006 at 9:16am
Originally posted by Kilt Kilt wrote:

Blind clusters.
 
 

CDC, WHO experts visit Indonesia to inspect H5N1 cluster

May 18, 2006 (CIDRAP News) – An international team of scientists from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) arrived today on Indonesia's Sumatra island to investigate the largest cluster to date of confirmed human cases of H5N1 avian influenza, according to news services.

In addition, the WHO reported today that a 75-year-old Egyptian woman died of H5N1 infection, becoming the sixth fatality in Egypt.

In a news release about the Indonesian cluster today, the WHO said the source of infection was not yet known for any of the cases. "The possibility of limited human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out," the agency said.

"A cluster is always serious," the WHO's Thomas Grein told Bloomberg news today after visiting North Sumatra. "This one by its sheer size and that it has occurred in an area where there have been no confirmed outbreaks is of course of interest."

In its statement today, the WHO gave some details on the cases in six extended family members from Kubu Sembelang village in the Karo district of North Sumatra—five of whom died—as well as on another Indonesian woman who died of avian flu in Surabaya in East Java. Her death was reported by news media yesterday.

In North Sumatra, the outbreak may have begun Apr 27 when a 37-year-old woman contracted a respiratory disease, which took her life May 4. However, no specimens were obtained from her body for confirmatory testing, but the WHO said she is considered the initial case in the cluster.





I would not want to be insensitive to the lady or her familiy but unless she was cremated considered the gravity of the situation I would say "exume the body and test her;" get the specimens you need and you will have no problems in identifying the infection.


Edited by medclinician - May 20 2006 at 9:42am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SusanT Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2006 at 9:16am
I agree, we should all be careful not to jump to conclusions. I have read several times now "this is it" or "it is happening, finish your preps NOW". While I agree, things look as though it is evolving, and we should all be prepared and stay informed, we need to stay reality based. Strangely enough, I have caught myself even a bit disappointed when things fizzle out to be nothing. Perhaps it is just me wanting justification for those who have called me crazy over the last 6 months, but I realize how ridiculous this is. If any of you are like me, we all need to take a step back and take a deep breath, and stop waiting for the end of the world as we know it. p.s. I apologize if this affends anyone, that is certainly not my intention.
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