Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese  Click to Translate to Myanmar (Burmese)

PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
123456
Forum Home Forum Home > Main Forums > Latest News
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Good Morning America!
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Good Morning America!

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
Message
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Good Morning America!
    Posted: May 24 2006 at 4:24am
Well The BF made the 1st story of the morning on Good Morning America.  They showed the burial of one of the victims.  Kept stressing that it is contained in a VERY SMALL tight group.  Also I noticed they did say that it was 'human to human' NOT 'human to human to human' --- we're learning a lot on this forum, aren't we?? They also made note that the virus has NOT mutated ... made sure that was clear, as well. Not a word was mentioned about what should be done in anticipation of it becoming a growing situation.  Just the initial Indonesia story line. -k
Back to Top
oknut View Drop Down
V.I.P. Member
V.I.P. Member


Joined: March 04 2006
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 847
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oknut Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 24 2006 at 4:32am
The report sounds pretty feeble, but at least it was a mainstream report.   

Sometimes I wonder how much news we don't even learn here on the forum due to lack of reporting and suppression of facts.

If the mainstream news people were to actually jump in and dig, we might all have a better understanding of the risk and most of the public might prepare.
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 24 2006 at 4:56am
So on these H2H2H people, do you think they found the virus higher up in the respiratory track? I thought that was part of the reason it was so difficult to spread it because it buried itself deep in our lungs. Also, now it seems to be much easier to catch from chickens. Many months ago, it was very difficult to catch from birds. Or are we looking harder?
Sorry for all the questions, I ask because I'm interested in other people's opinions.

    
Back to Top
oknut View Drop Down
V.I.P. Member
V.I.P. Member


Joined: March 04 2006
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 847
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oknut Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 24 2006 at 5:00am
Ruth,

I think you are asking the questions that we expect the experts to be answering ...

Instead, all we see is no major mutation or no mutation or maybe H2H, but it hasn't mutated.

Doesn't make sense to me.
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 24 2006 at 6:03am
My question is, if there has been no mutation, why did they send a shipment of tamiflu from the US over there? Micheal Leavitt was on the news and stated that the shipment was being sent to an un named asian country (my guess is india, but could also be vietnam which also has clusters) but that it was preventitive in nature.And that not do to H2H.
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 24 2006 at 6:09am
Ruth,
 
H5N1 Virus replication in vivo (inside) is more complicated than that but is not impossible to completely understand.
 
This report may help and has illustrations.
 
Here is another, Why is Bird Flu So Deadly
 
Prep-On
Back to Top
MYSTery View Drop Down
Valued Member
Valued Member


Joined: May 24 2006
Status: Offline
Points: 3
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MYSTery Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 24 2006 at 7:44am
I saw that too. Found it rather 'interesting' that I haven't heard a peep on any of the TV news for quite some time on this. Then, all of a sudden, it's everywhere. A short note on it on the evening world news last night, on our local news this morning, then on GMA as well. Did the media finally get 'permission' to release info. on this (although limited it may be, as we in the forum all know)..?
Back to Top
Jhetta View Drop Down
Valued Member
Valued Member
Avatar

Joined: March 28 2006
Status: Offline
Points: 1272
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 24 2006 at 8:30am
Originally posted by oknut oknut wrote:

The report sounds pretty feeble, but at least it was a mainstream report.   

Sometimes I wonder how much news we don't even learn here on the forum due to lack of reporting and suppression of facts.

If the mainstream news people were to actually jump in and dig, we might all have a better understanding of the risk and most of the public might prepare.
 
The media is supported by advertisers....
 
Take a look at the financial fall out from the limited reports that the WHO issued yesterday.
 
We will have to dig our selves and watch for actions not words.
Back to Top
NZ er View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group
Avatar

Joined: March 27 2006
Location: New Zealand
Status: Offline
Points: 329
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NZ er Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 24 2006 at 8:43am
Was a tiny snippet on Sky TV last night.. did any one see it? if you had blinked you would not have...said that four?? people from a family had died in Indonesia..that was it. I totally agree Jhetta. ..it appeared yesterday that the WHO seemed pretty concerned, thinking of raising the level.. making a few noises ..the $$$$ started moving..and then shhhhhhh
Land of the Long White Cloud
Back to Top
ebburcher View Drop Down
Valued Member
Valued Member
Avatar

Joined: April 05 2006
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 1
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ebburcher Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 24 2006 at 9:12am
Fox News is carrying the story, six members of the same family dead.  What I find particularly troublesome is the scenes where they are disposing of what we are to assume are infected chickens.  These people are donning plastic bags and cloth masks to protect themselves, neither of which are going to do much ...
Back to Top
Jhetta View Drop Down
Valued Member
Valued Member
Avatar

Joined: March 28 2006
Status: Offline
Points: 1272
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 24 2006 at 9:25am
Originally posted by NZ er NZ er wrote:

Was a tiny snippet on Sky TV last night.. did any one see it? if you had blinked you would not have...said that four?? people from a family had died in Indonesia..that was it. I totally agree Jhetta. ..it appeared yesterday that the WHO seemed pretty concerned, thinking of raising the level.. making a few noises ..the $$$$ started moving..and then shhhhhhh
 
China is our friend.... hack hack cough cough gag gag.
 
Notice the financial writers are closer to the true numbers in the family... they are watching this very closely!
 
Asian Currencies: Indonesian Rupiah Falls on Bird-Flu Concern
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aNGiIwYdxz.4&refer=asia 
May 24 (Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies dropped, led by the Indonesian rupiah, after the World Health Organization said avian flu may have spread among family members in Indonesia, raising concern the region will become the source of a pandemic.

Japan

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=aOQRytNbw_YM&refer=japan
 
Dollar Advances as Bird-Flu Scare Fuels Demand for Safer Assets
May 24 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar gained for a second day after the World Health Organization said seven Indonesians may have contracted bird flu from other people, raising concerns of a global pandemic and bolstering demand for safer investments.

24 May 2006
PUTRAJAYA: It’s certain death for any chicken, duck or any other fowl from Indonesia caught at Malaysian landing points, to stop the avian flu virus from spreading here.

Their owners will face a maximum fine of RM5,000 or two years’ jail or both, for importing animals without a permit under the Animal Act 1953.

Veterinary Services Department acting director-general Datuk Dr Mustapa Abd Jalil said the birds would be destroyed immediately upon seizure, as the Act empowered them to destroy any animal bearing the threat of disease.

"No need for laboratory testing. We don’t want to take the risk," Mustapa said at his office here yesterday.
 
Flu scare over poultry meat overdone: analysts
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060524/hl_nm/birdflu_poultry_consumers_dc;_ylt=A0SOwlxMhnREiDwBJw8Q.3QA;_ylu=X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA

By Nigel Hunt 24 minutes ago

LONDON (Reuters) - The scare over poultry meat sparked by bird flu has been overdone, particularly in low-risk areas such as Europe, and farmers have paid a very heavy price, analysts and industry officials said on Wednesday.

EUROPE MARKETS: European Shares Fall On Industrials, Bird-flu Fears

By Sarah Turner

European shares were pressured lower Wednesday by industrial stocks and the resources sector, with travel stocks in focus as the World Health Organization placed bird flu firmly back on the agenda.


Back to Top
Jhetta View Drop Down
Valued Member
Valued Member
Avatar

Joined: March 28 2006
Status: Offline
Points: 1272
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jhetta Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 24 2006 at 9:37am

Agriculture Department prepares for bird flu testing
Agriculture Department prepares for bird flu testing 

By LIBBY QUAID, AP Food and Farm Writer

Published: May 24, 2006
Last Modified: May 24, 2006 at 07:42 AM

AMES, Iowa (AP) - The government's elaborate network for diagnosing bird flu will eventually come down to a sprawling 640-acre campus in the Iowa countryside where strict security is the only hint of the crucial role scientists there could play in a national drama that the country hopes will never materialize.

The security and the elaborate protective clothing the Agriculture Department scientists wear - scrubs, coveralls, rubber boots, protective glasses, hairnets and gloves - looks like a made-for-TV disaster movie.

"These are nice, bright, healthy birds," says veterinarian Michelle Crocheck of four unsuspecting chickens strutting around in their cage.

For now.

If suspected cases of bird flu are found at other screening labs across the country, the future for Crocheck's charges is grim.

The four fowl - and hundreds like them - are key players in a complex testing process at the National Veterinary Services Laboratories that will determine whether the highly pathogenic H5N1 bird flu virus has arrived in the United States.

"Lab diagnosis is definitely the centerpiece of the whole avian influenza response," said Larry Granger, who oversees emergency management for the Agriculture Department.

The labs - normally off-limits to anyone but the scientists who work there - were opened Tuesday to journalists for a walkthrough of the "nation's only" internationally recognized bird flu testing program.

Researchers test for bird flu, mad cow disease and many other animal diseases on the 640-acre campus near Iowa State University. The sprawling green lawns and low buildings are under tight security.

Known as the H5N1 strain of bird influenza, the virus spread from Asia, where it's blamed for the slaughter of 200 million birds, to Africa and Europe. The virus has killed at least 124 people.

No one knows whether the virus will reach the U.S. or develop into a strain of deadly flu that can be transmitted easily by humans.

To help determine when and where it arrives, the government has begun a massive testing program. The first phase started in Alaska, where thousands of migratory birds will be captured and swabbed. The birds are considered natural reservoirs for bird flu and can harbor hundred of different flu viruses.

Samples will be shipped to a network of laboratories across the country for screening. If a sample contains evidence of the H5 virus, it then gets shipped to Ames, where tests are run over several days to determine if the infected bird carried the H5N1 strain.

First, virus from the sample is injected in bird eggs, which are tested five days later to determine whether it is one of 144 strains of bird flu or whether it is another disease such as Exotic Newcastle, which is harmless to humans but deadly to poultry.

If it contains bird flu, the sample is tested to determine whether it is H5N1 or another of the avian influenzas. Only those testing positive for H5N1 go to the lab with the caged chickens.

Eight of these birds, specially bred and disease-free, are injected with virus from the suspect sample. Perhaps within hours, certainly in two days, the birds will begin moving more slowly, perhaps hunching in the corner of the cage and no longer eating and drinking. Their wattles might turn from bright orange to blue.

"If you lose 75 percent of the chickens, or more, then it's high-path," said Brundaben Panigrahy, head of the lab's avian section, using scientists' shorthand for the lethal strain of Asian bird flu.

Although the test results will be announced publicly, likely by officials in Washington, Granger said this will not be a signal of a threat to humans.

"If we find this virus in the wild bird population, it doesn't necessarily mean there's a human health risk," Granger said. "Likewise, it doesn't mean there is a risk to commercial poultry."

So far, the virus has mostly affected birds. Those who have died from the virus - mostly in Asia - had close contact with infected birds. However, scientists cautioned that the virus could mutate into a form that spreads easily among people and could spark an epidemic.

"Finding it in a migratory bird is an early warning system," Ron DeHaven, head of the Agriculture Department's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, said in a recent interview.

"So it would be cause for us to put out an alert, do some additional surveillance testing and do some education and outreach, in terms of practicing good biosecurity," DeHaven said

Back to Top
Cygnet View Drop Down
Valued Member
Valued Member


Joined: May 20 2006
Status: Offline
Points: 114
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Cygnet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 24 2006 at 10:10am
Site's not quoting ebburcher's post -- this is in reponse to the post above.

   I don't see any plot here.

You have to realize that the major news organizations are not particularly creative. There are very few journalists who actually do any investigation. Mostly, they just package and deliver because it's easier and they don't want to get "scooped" by the competition.

So Network "A" runs a story on Bird Flu. Networks "B" "C" and "D" will promptly run the same story.

Print media does the same thing -- sometimes because they're buying their content from Reuters or AP, sometimes because they're just rewriting articles other sites have printed.

There's a fair amount of outright theft of content going on, too. Site "A" posts a story. Site "B" copies and pastes the story to THEIR web site because that's even easier than rewriting it. (Yes, illegal. But also generally not worth sueing over. And they know it.)

Leva
    
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 24 2006 at 10:15am
Originally posted by ReadyMom ReadyMom wrote:

Well The BF made the 1st story of the morning on Good Morning America.  They showed the burial of one of the victims.  Kept stressing that it is contained in a VERY SMALL tight group.  Also I noticed they did say that it was 'human to human' NOT 'human to human to human' --- we're learning a lot on this forum, aren't we?? They also made note that the virus has NOT mutated ... made sure that was clear, as well. Not a word was mentioned about what should be done in anticipation of it becoming a growing situation.  Just the initial Indonesia story line. -k


They keep on saying that the virus has not mutated, totally ignoring that the mutation that made it a human to human virus happened months ago.  Sure, it did not mutate recently because it did so late last year in Indonesia.

What it has not gained is Ease of Transmission.  That will come when it combines with another flu virus and gains the capacity to infect the nose and throat (upper respiratory) tissue as it replicates.  Right now, it appears to still be replicating in the lungs (lower respiratory).

When it moves from mainly the lungs to mainly the nose and throat, we will see the pandemic.  I am still thinking November time frame.
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 24 2006 at 10:22am
Originally posted by Jhetta Jhetta wrote:

Agriculture Department prepares for bird flu testing
Agriculture Department prepares for bird flu testing 

By LIBBY QUAID, AP Food and Farm Writer

Published: May 24, 2006
Last Modified: May 24, 2006 at 07:42 AM

AMES, Iowa (AP) - The government's elaborate network for diagnosing bird flu will eventually come down to a sprawling 640-acre campus in the Iowa countryside where strict security is the only hint of the crucial role scientists there could play in a national drama that the country hopes will never materialize.

...


Interesting!  Iowa refuses to talk about the death of all those cows and pigs and yet, this story is run.  Trying to placate the masses with reassurances when they refuse to answer any questions on the animal deaths.  What is that Yiddish word, Chutzpah?

It takes a lot of nerve to post a story out of Iowa!
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 24 2006 at 10:23am
Just looked it up after posting.

chutzpah
 
 
(KHOOT-spuh, HOOT-spuh) Yiddish term for courage bordering on arrogance, roughly equivalent to “nerve” (in the slang sense): “It took a lot of chutzpah to make such a controversial statement.”

Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down