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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Pandemic Alert: Phase 3 / Phase 4

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    Posted: June 11 2006 at 6:46pm
Phase 3: Pandemic Alert
 
 
Human infection(s) with a new subtype, but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact.

Rationale

The occurrence of cases of human disease increases the chance that the virus may adapt or reassort to become transmissible from human to human, especially if coinciding with a seasonal outbreak of influenza. Measures are needed to detect and prevent spread of disease.

Rare instances of transmission to a close contact ­ for example, in a household or healt-hcarer setting ­ may occur, but do not alter the man attribute of this phase, i.e. that the virus is essentially not transmissible from human to
human.

Definition of new: a subtype that has not circulated in humans for at least several decades and to which the great majority of the human population therefore lacks immunity.

Examples:

One or more unlinked human cases with a clear history of exposure to an animal source/non-human source (with laboratory confirmation in a WHO-designated reference laboratory).

Rare instances of spread from a case to close household or unprotected health-care contacts without evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission.

One or more small independent clusters of human cases (such as family members) who may have acquired infection from a common source or the environment, but for whom human-to-human transmission cannot be excluded.

Persons whose source of exposure cannot be determined, but are not associated with clusters

Phase 4: Pandemic Alert

Small cluster(s) with limited human-to-human transmission but spread is highly localized, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans.


Rationale

Virus has increased human-to-human transmissibility but is not well adapted to humans and remains highly localized, so that its spread may possibly be delayed or contained.

Examples:

One or more clusters involving a small number of human cases, e.g. a cluster of <25 cases lasting <2 weeks.

Appearance of a small number of human cases in one or several geographically linked areas without a clear history of a non-human source of exposure, for which the most likely explanation is considered to be human-to-human transmission

 
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vian influenza – situation in Indonesia – update 15

29 May 2006

The Ministry of Health in Indonesia has confirmed an additional six cases of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. Three of these cases were fatal.

None of the newly confirmed cases is associated with the family cluster in Karo, North Sumatra. The cases are widely dispersed geographically (see map below).

One newly confirmed case is an 18-year-old man from East Java Province. He developed symptoms on 6 May and was hospitalized on 17 May. He is now recovering. The investigation found a history of exposure to dead chickens in his home within the week prior to symptom onset. No further cases of influenza-like illness have been identified during the investigation and monitoring of his close contacts.

Two additional cases occurred in a 10-year-old girl and her 18-year-old brother from Bandung, West Java. Both children developed symptoms on 16 May, were hospitalized on 22 May, and died on 23 May. Both children had a history of close contact with sick and dying chickens at their home in the week before symptom onset. The identical onset dates strongly suggest that they acquired their infection following a shared exposure to poultry, and not from each other. Follow-up of contacts has not identified further cases of influenza-like illness. (MY NOTE: CLUSTER)

An additional case occurred in a 39-year-old man from West Jakarta. He developed symptoms on 9 May, was hospitalized on 16 May, and died on 19 May. The investigation determined that the man cleaned pigeon faeces from blocked roof gutters at his home shortly before symptom onset. No further potential source of exposure was identified.

The remaining two patients are a 43-year-old man from South Jakarta, who developed symptoms on 6 May, and a 15-year-old girl from West Sumatra, who developed symptoms on 17 May. The 43-year-old man has recovered and been discharged from hospital. The 15-year-old girl remains hospitalized. The sources of exposure for these two cases are under investigation. (NO ANIMAL OR SOURCE OF EXPOSURE WAS INDENTIFIED)

The newly confirmed cases bring the cumulative total in Indonesia to 48. Of these cases, 36 were fatal.

 

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23 May 2006

The Ministry of Health in Indonesia has confirmed an additional case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. The case occurred in a 32-year-old man. He developed symptoms on 15 May and died on 22 May.

The case is part of a family cluster in the Kubu Sembelang village, Karo District, of North Sumatra. The man is the seventh member of an extended family to become infected with the H5N1 virus and the sixth to die. An additional person, who was the first member of the family to fall ill, died of respiratory disease on 4 May. No specimens were taken prior to her burial and the cause of her death cannot be determined. However, as her clinical course was compatible with H5N1 infection, epidemiologists at the outbreak site include this woman as the initial case in the cluster.

The newly confirmed case is a brother of the initial case. Specimens were taken on 21 May and flown the same day to Jakarta. Tests run overnight confirmed his infection. His 10-year-old son died of H5N1 infection on 13 May. The father was closely involved in caring for his son, and this contact is considered a possible source of infection.

Although the investigation is continuing, preliminary findings indicate that three of the confirmed cases spent the night of 29 April in a small room together with the initial case at a time when she was symptomatic and coughing frequently. These cases include the woman’s two sons and a second brother, aged 25 years, who is the sole surviving case among infected members of this family. Other infected family members lived in adjacent homes.

All confirmed cases in the cluster can be directly linked to close and prolonged exposure to a patient during a phase of severe illness. Although human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out, the search for a possible alternative source of exposure is continuing. (HUMAN TO HUMAN NO FURTHER SOURCE IDENTIFIED)

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19 May 2006

The Ministry of Health in Indonesia has confirmed an additional case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. The case occurred in a 12-year-old boy from Bekasi in East Jakarta. He was hospitalized on 7 May and died on 13 May.

An investigation is under way to determine the source of his infection.

(NO ANIMAL SOURCE INDENTIFIED)
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18 May 2006

The Ministry of Health in Indonesia has confirmed an additional seven cases of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. Six of the cases were fatal.

One fatal case, in a 38-year-old woman, occurred in the city of Surabaya, in East Java. She developed symptoms on 2 May, was hospitalized on 7 May, and died on 12 May. The case is the first reported from this area.

(NO ANIMAL SOURCE INDENTIFIED)
 
The remaining six cases are from the village of Kubu Sembelang in the Karo district of North Sumatra. All six are members of an extended family, and all but one lived in neighbouring houses
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Avian influenza – situation in Djibouti

12 May 2006

The Ministry of Health in Djibouti has confirmed the country’s first case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. The patient is a 2-year-old girl from a small rural village in Arta district. She developed symptoms on 23 April. She is presently in a stable condition with persistent symptoms.

Three tests conducted on 10 May by the Cairo-based US Naval Medical Research Unit 3 (NAMRU-3) confirmed the child’s infection with the H5N1 virus. She is the first case of human infection reported in the Horn of Africa.

Three of the child’s siblings are under investigation for possible infection and are also receiving care. Samples have been taken and are being sent to NAMRU-3 for testing. (4 PERSON CLUSTER)

Health authorities in Djibouti initiated surveillance for human cases following reports of a small number of chicken deaths in early April. NAMRU-3 has also confirmed the presence of H5N1 virus in samples from three chickens.

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Avian influenza – situation in Egypt - update 5

21 April 2006

The Ministry of Health in Egypt has informed WHO of the country’s fourth death from H5N1 avian influenza. The death occurred in a previously announced patient, an 18-year-old girl from the northern governorate of Minufiyah. She developed symptoms on 5 April and died on 14 April.

(NO SOURCE NOTED)
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vian influenza – situation in China – update 10

21 April 2006

The Ministry of Health in China has informed WHO of the country’s 12th death from H5N1 avian influenza. The death occurred in a previously reported case, a 21-year-old man from Hubei Province. He died of severe respiratory disease on 19 April.

(NO SOURCE NOTED)
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Avian influenza – situation in China – update 9

19 April 2006

The Ministry of Health in China has confirmed the country’s 17th case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. The case occurred in a 21-year-old male migrant worker employed in Wuhan City, Hubei Province. He developed symptoms on 1 April. He is presently hospitalized in critical condition.

The man’s source of exposure is under investigation. No poultry outbreaks have been reported in Hubei Province since November 2005. His close contacts have been placed under medical observation.

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vian influenza – situation in Indonesia – update 10

19 April 2006

The Ministry of Health in Indonesia has confirmed the country’s 32nd case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. The case occurred in a 24-year-old man from Tangerang, near Greater Jakarta. He developed symptoms on 29 March, was hospitalized on 5 April, and died on 8 April.

His source of exposure is presently under investigation.

(NO SOURCE NOTED)
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Avian influenza – situation in Azerbaijan - update 3

11 April 2006

Tests conducted at a WHO collaborating laboratory in the United Kingdom have retrospectively identified an additional human case of H5N1 infection. The case is a 17-year-old girl who developed symptoms on 11 March. She was seriously ill with bilateral pneumonia but has since fully recovered and been discharged from hospital. Early in her course of illness, a diagnosis of H5N1 infection was presumed based on her clinical symptoms and preliminary laboratory results, and she was treated accordingly.

Her 15-year-old cousin, previously confirmed by WHO, developed symptoms on the same day and was hospitalized in critical condition. She has also fully recovered and been discharged from hospital. Both girls, who are neighbours, reside in the small Daikyand settlement in Salyan rayon, where 7 of the 8 cases in Azerbaijan occurred. Active house-to-house surveillance in the settlement has failed to detect any further cases.

(7 PERSON CLUSTER)
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The ninth case, announced by the government on 5 April, is a 16-month-old girl from the southern governorate of Sohaj. The child’s infection was detected on 4 April. She is presently hospitalized in stable condition.

The tenth case, announced today, is an 8-year-old boy from the Qaliubiya governorate near Cairo. He is presently hospitalized in stable condition.

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he Ministry of Health in Indonesia has confirmed an additional case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. The case, which was fatal, occurred in a 20-month-old girl who resided in Kapuk, West Jakarta. She developed symptoms of fever and cough on 17 March, was hospitalized on 22 March, and died on 23 March.

Field investigation found a history of deaths in a chicken flock near her home about one week prior to symptom onset.

 
(AIRBORNE)
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vian influenza – situation in Egypt - update 2

3 April 2006

Samples from four patients, previously announced by the Egyptian Ministry of Health as infected with the H5N1 avian influenza virus, have now been tested in a WHO collaborating laboratory in the United Kingdom. Positive H5N1 results were obtained for all four patients. WHO has updated its cumulative number of cases accordingly.

The four cases were described in WHO updates issued on 20 March and 29 March. Two of the patients died. Two patients fully recovered and have now been discharged from hospital.

A fifth patient, previously announced by the Ministry of Health, remains hospitalized. External diagnostic confirmation of this patient, an 18-year-old girl from the Kafr El-Sheikh governorate, is pending.

On 2 April, Egyptian authorities announced that an additional two residents of Kafr El-Sheikh, a 6-year-old girl and her 18-month-old sister, were shown to have H5N1 infections in local laboratory tests. Further diagnostic confirmation is pending. Both girls remain hospitalized in stable condition.

(NO EXPOSURES NOTED)
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Avian influenza – situation in Egypt - update 2

3 April 2006

Positive H5N1 results were obtained for all four patients. WHO has updated its cumulative number of cases accordingly.

On 2 April, Egyptian authorities announced that an additional two residents of Kafr El-Sheikh, a 6-year-old girl and her 18-month-old sister, were shown to have H5N1 infections in local laboratory tests. Further diagnostic confirmation is pending. Both girls remain hospitalized in stable condition. (CLUSTER)
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This is not rare.
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