There is concern now because:

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http://www.searo.who.int/LinkFiles/Avian_Flu_why_are_we_concerned_now_II.pdf

There is concern now because:
Of the three pre-requisites to start an influenza pandemic viz.(i) emergence of a

novel virus to which all are susceptible, (ii) new virus is able to replicate and cause
diseases in humans, (iii) new virus is transmitted efficiently from human-to-human,
the first two have already been met by the current H5N1 outbreaks in birds in Asia.
H5N1 virus, the potential candidate for the next pandemic, has not yet acquired

the ability for efficient human-to-human transmission. If this happens, all conditions
for a pandemic will be fulfilled.
H5N1 virus is gradually expanding the host range (e.g.domestic, wild and migratory

birds) and spreading geographically in the affected countries as well as to other
countries. In February 2006, 13 countries around the world have reported H5N1 in
birds.
Although no one can predict with certainty when the pandemic will occur, experts

warn that it is imminent; there is a great possibility that it would begin from Asia.
During the current H5N1 outbreaks more than 150 million birds have been destroyed

or died and the direct economic costs to affected countries is truly enormous.
The next pandemic may cause very high morbidity and mortality in a few weeks. It

is estimated that the pandemic may cause more than 1 billion cases and 2-7 million
deaths. It may severely strain the health services and other essential services and
cause massive social, political and economic disruption.
A modest pandemic lasting over one year might cause losses as high as 3% of Asia�s

GDP and 0.5% of world GDP. This is presently equivalent to about a loss of $ 150-
200 billion in GDP.
Countries with pandemic preparedness and pre-existing core capacities will be able to
respond quickly to pre-empt the pandemic or minimize its adverse impact.

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Guests Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: There is concern now because: Posted: June 11 2006 at 10:46pm
	http://www.great-destinations.org/great_destinations_files/images/myanmar2.gif http://www.searo.who.int/LinkFiles/Avian_Flu_why_are_we_concerned_now_II.pdf There is concern now because: Of the three pre-requisites to start an influenza pandemic viz.(i) emergence of a novel virus to which all are susceptible, (ii) new virus is able to replicate and cause diseases in humans, (iii) new virus is transmitted efficiently from human-to-human, the first two have already been met by the current H5N1 outbreaks in birds in Asia. H5N1 virus, the potential candidate for the next pandemic, has not yet acquired the ability for efficient human-to-human transmission. If this happens, all conditions for a pandemic will be fulfilled. H5N1 virus is gradually expanding the host range (e.g.domestic, wild and migratory birds) and spreading geographically in the affected countries as well as to other countries. In February 2006, 13 countries around the world have reported H5N1 in birds. Although no one can predict with certainty when the pandemic will occur, experts warn that it is imminent; there is a great possibility that it would begin from Asia. During the current H5N1 outbreaks more than 150 million birds have been destroyed or died and the direct economic costs to affected countries is truly enormous. The next pandemic may cause very high morbidity and mortality in a few weeks. It is estimated that the pandemic may cause more than 1 billion cases and 2-7 million deaths. It may severely strain the health services and other essential services and cause massive social, political and economic disruption. A modest pandemic lasting over one year might cause losses as high as 3% of Asia�s GDP and 0.5% of world GDP. This is presently equivalent to about a loss of $ 150- 200 billion in GDP. Countries with pandemic preparedness and pre-existing core capacities will be able to respond quickly to pre-empt the pandemic or minimize its adverse impact. http://www.spiceroads.com/maps/burma.html