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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Going to Defcon 6 & Declaring Pandemic

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carbon20 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 2:01pm
after reading an item from Health people here in Australia ,

The underlying theme was, "it given us time to Prepare"

That's why all the P2/n95 masked  disappeared over night here, 

Over Australia Day long weekend!!!!!!!!!....just doesn't happen......

Time before the panic sets in!!!!!!!! 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 2:51pm
Cry
12 Monkeys...............
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 3:02pm
Italy store shelves are fully wiped out This is why prepping early is a smart move.
https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 3:40pm
Originally posted by Gdeb Gdeb wrote:

Chuck is one of the most if not the most knowledgeable on here, when it comes to pandemic disease information. In my opinion, now is not the time to be offended by anything he or anyone else says. There are way bigger problems coming our way that need attention.

Thank you!  I seem to be the voice of calm reason, even within parts of the US government (I'm not an employee, but they seek my opinion as a Subject Matter Expert). 

Here's my concerns: 

a) Many people will likely die, but folks won't drop in their tracks as reported for the 1918 Spanish Flu (much of that was media exaggeration, the primary cause of death from the Spanish Flu was secondary bacterial pneumonia).  We in the USA (at least) can control our own fates by practicing social distancing, personal hygiene (hand washing), getting vaccinated for flu (you are at far greater risk of flu complications than COVID-19), and avoiding panic. 

b) This is not a leaked bioweapon, but conceivably could be a leak from a Chinese research lab....I'm a signatory to the Cambridge Group document, and we advocate for stricter controls on BSL4 labs and viral gain of function research.  I personally think that, like SARS, this is a zoonotic disease released from a Chinese "wet market" that mixed bats, civet cats, dogs, wolves, donkeys, snakes, pangolin etc.  Who knows how many hosts this virus went through? 

c) Don't overreact.   Hoarding masks reduces the supply available to first responders & hospital workers, who genuinely need these.  I personally am convinced that the primary mode of dissemination is fecal/oral, which would explain why the quarantine on the cruise ship Diamond Princess failed so completely.  

d)  There are worse scenarios.  As nuclear-armed states like Pakistan, Iran (you didn't hear that from me), Israel, North Korea etc. become consumed with this pest, it could lead to regional or even global instability.  North Korea has stockpiles of smallpox, with a 50% case fatality rate, and may release this if the leadership feels they are losing control.  

Please calm down.  


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 3:51pm
LOL, we are calm we are prepped to the nines but we I believe are worried about others panic when the people cannot get into the hospital and they are very ill or people start dying. When grandma dies because her grand daughter comes home from school and gives it to grandma... you are going to see really pissed off people.

Panic will be ramped because no one is telling them the only way to curb this is to SIP. I know you say it is just a cold but grandma does not die from a cold and usually would be able to get into the hospital.

Why do you think Italy has closed down ten cities, We are not panicked but we are panicked about when people here realize this is not just a cold. iMHO
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Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

North Korea has stockpiles of smallpox, with a 50% case fatality rate, and may release this if the leadership feels they are losing control.  




Hi Chuck, How long does the smallpox vaccine last? I had one as a baby, I still have the vaccination card to prove it. Would it still offer some protection? Would i have passed on some protection to my children? Thanks.
You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 4:47pm
Here we go....

Its gonna get real crazy.

Normies don't know yet. They will wig out. The stock market will implode.

I'm predicting a Friday announcement.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 4:50pm
Buy silver
Pull you money out of the bank. Be ahead of the curve.

Act now!!!

There's the best advice you will ever receive.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 4:51pm
lol
https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Little House Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 5:00pm

Quote
c) ...I personally am convinced that the primary mode of dissemination is fecal/oral, which would explain why the quarantine on the cruise ship Diamond Princess failed so completely.  




Chuck,
Sorry to be dense, but could you explain how fecal/oral dissemination explains why the quarantine failed?
I am guessing that since you say the quarantine failed you assume that people were infected during the quarantine, but I don’t understand how that could happen through fecal/oral if everyone was locked in their rooms. Am I missing something?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 5:08pm
Thanks, Cobber. This is definitely a prepper site - there must be a mention of buying silver. :) I'd buy gold if I could, myself. Any paper assets are likely to be inflated away by the FED. In a crisis, they will turn on the money printing hoses full blast faster than you can say "helicopter money."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 7:37pm

 Assessment.   CDC is close to calling it!  Updated February 23, 2020

Outbreaks of novel virus infections among people are always of public health concern. The risk from these outbreaks depends on characteristics of the virus, including how well it spreads between people, the severity of resulting illness, and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccine or treatment medications). The fact that this disease has caused illness, including illness resulting in death, and sustained person-to-person spread is concerning. These factors meet two of the criteria of a pandemic. As community spread is detected in more and more countries, the world moves closer toward meeting the third criteria, worldwide spread of the new virus.

The potential public health threat posed by COVID-19 is high, both globally and to the United States.

But individual risk is dependent on exposure.

  • For the general American public, who are unlikely to be exposed to this virus at this time, the immediate health risk from COVID-19 is considered low.
  • Under current circumstances, certain people will have an increased risk of infection, for example healthcare workers caring for patients with COVID-19 and other close contacts of persons with COVID-19. CDC has developed guidance to help in the risk assessment and management of people with potential exposures to COVID-19.

However, it’s important to note that current global circumstances suggest it is likely that this virus will cause a pandemic. In that case, the risk assessment would be different.

What May Happen

More cases are likely to be identified in the coming days, including more cases in the United States. It’s also likely that person-to-person spread will continue to occur, including in the United States. Widespread transmission of COVID-19 in the United States would translate into large numbers of people needing medical care at the same time. Schools, childcare centers, workplaces, and other places for mass gatherings may experience more absenteeism. Public health and healthcare systems may become overloaded, with elevated rates of hospitalizations and deaths. Other critical infrastructure, such as law enforcement, emergency medical services, and transportation industry may also be affected. Health care providers and hospitals may be overwhelmed. At this time, there is no vaccine to protect against COVID-19 and no medications approved to treat it. Nonpharmaceutical interventions would be the most important response strategy.

CDC Response

Global efforts at this time are focused concurrently on containing spread of this virus and mitigating the impact of this virus. The federal government is working closely with state, local, tribal, and territorial partners, as well as public health partners, to respond to this public health threat. The public health response is multi-layered, with the goal of detecting and minimizing introductions of this virus in the United States so as to reduce the spread and the impact of this virus. CDC is operationalizing all of its pandemic preparedness and response plans, working on multiple fronts to meet these goals, including specific measures to prepare communities to respond local transmission of the virus that causes COVID-19. There is an abundance of pandemic guidance developed in anticipation of an influenza pandemic that is being repurposed and adapted for a COVID-19 pandemic.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 7:52pm
Thanks, Pixie, that was actually comforting and validating.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 7:57pm
My IPad is dying as we speak,keeps collapsing. Great timing huh?

I guess tomorrow I'll have replace,can't be without.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 8:24pm
In Australia, the Victorian chief medical officer announced on twitter that its a pandemic. At the same time the feds are saying keep calm and no need for masks.

laughable.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 8:33pm

new report from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention analyzed records of all of China's reported cases of the virus from December 8 to February 11 — a total of 72,314 patients. (For the latest official case total and death toll, see Business Insider's live updates.)

The researchers found that 80.9% of the confirmed cases were mild. Those patients might experience a fever or dry cough but weren't likely to have difficulty breathing or to develop a severe lung infection. The study also found that infected people could show no symptoms at all — that was the case for 1.2% of the patients.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 8:55pm
Originally posted by Pixie Pixie wrote:

My IPad is dying as we speak,keeps collapsing. Great timing huh?

I guess tomorrow I'll have replace,can't be without.


I feel you pain I just replaced my computer that died last week!
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Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

<p style="-sizing: border-; margin: 2.15rem 0px; font-family: TiemposTextWeb, Georgia, Times, serif; caret-color: rgb17, 17, 17; font-size: 20px;">new report from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention analyzed records of all of China's reported cases of the virus from December 8 to February 11 — a total of 72,314 patients. (For the latest official case total and death toll, see Business Insider's live updates.)

<p style="-sizing: border-; margin: 2.15rem 0px; font-family: TiemposTextWeb, Georgia, Times, serif; caret-color: rgb17, 17, 17; font-size: 20px;">The researchers found that 80.9% of the confirmed cases were mild.Those patients might experience a fever or dry cough but weren't likely to have difficulty breathing or to develop a severe lung infection. The study also found that infected people could show no symptoms at all — that was the case for 1.2% of the patients.




So 20% were bad. Ok Denver metro one million people say 50 k sick in a three week period means 10K really sick. Denver has 4K in hospital beds just counted. Not sure how many ICU but our hospitals will not be able to deal with numbers like that especially with how long people are very sick. This will not go well if it comes to the U.S.

I hope this hits late May schools will be out and that will help.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:13pm
How many ventilators does Denver have? 2/3 of critically ill will need a ventilator for four weeks or more. Does Denver have 6,666 ventilators?

There are approximately 62,000 full feature ventilators TOTAL in the US, and about 98,000 other than full feature ventilators, for 160,000 TOTAL in the US.

The US has 350 million people. Let's say this virus infects just 5% in the first month of a full-blown pandemic breakout, or 12.5 million people. 20% of 12.5 is 2.5 million people. Of those 2/3, or 1.6 MILLION people will need ventilators, but remember, 160,000.

And that's just with 5% of the population hit during the month. If only 5% of that 5% need a ventilator, that's still 625,000.

CONCLUSION: WE ARE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE.

With all due respect to CRS here, I think he's not seeing the forest for the trees if he thinks just a small percentage of people are going to die. If it'sjust 1 in 7, or 50,000,000 Americans are infected, that means about 1,000,000 Americans are likely to die at a 2% CFR. If it's 1%, it's 500,000.
Panic is not our enemy. Panic won't kill 500,000 Americans, but COVID-19 sure can. Can the US shut down like China has for a two months? I don't know, does anyone?

--

Number of ventilators in US
Accounting for nonrespondents, we estimate that there are 62,188 full-feature mechanical ventilators owned by US acute care hospitals. The median number of full-feature mechanical ventilators per 100,000 population for individual states is 19.7 (interquartile ratio 17.2-23.1), ranging from 11.9 to 77.6.

RESULTS:
Responding to the survey were 4305 (74.8%) hospitals, which accounted for 83.8% of US intensive care unit beds. Of the 52,118 full-feature mechanical ventilators owned by respondent hospitals, 24,204 (46.4%) are pediatric/neonatal capable. Accounting for nonrespondents, we estimate that there are 62,188 full-feature mechanical ventilators owned by US acute care hospitals. The median number of full-feature mechanical ventilators per 100,000 population for individual states is 19.7 (interquartile ratio 17.2-23.1), ranging from 11.9 to 77.6. The median number of pediatric-capable device full-feature mechanical ventilators per 100,000 population younger than 14 years old is 52.3 (interquartile ratio 43.1-63.9) and the range across states is 22.1 to 206.2. In addition, respondent hospitals reported owning 82,755 ventilators other than full-feature mechanical ventilators; we estimate that there are 98,738 devices other than full-feature ventilators at all of the US acute care hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS:
The number of mechanical ventilators per US population exceeds those reported by other developed countries, but there is wide variation across states in the population-adjusted supply. There are considerably more pediatric-capable ventilators than there are for adults only on a population-adjusted basis.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21149215
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:23pm
Have you been watching Dr John Campbell on Youtube in the UK? He's really good and his major concern that he keeps mentioning over and over again is not the lack of ventilators, but the lack of oxygen facilities. He says that way more people will need oxygen to get them through the tricky patch that can hit at about the day 10-14 stage of the virus and without it things can go downhill very fast.

For many people having oxygen then will facilitate them getting better. Ventilators are actually the next step up and mechanically breathe for you. But he says the UK is not set up to offer oxygen to thousands of people at once.
You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:33pm
Great point, I didn't know that, I likely misunderstood about the level of treatment necessary. I'll go watch more of his videos now.

Is it ECMO he's talking about, or just plain old extra oxygen?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:34pm
Do you have an episode number that has that in it I can focus on? Thanks!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:38pm
He did a couple of medical case studies of Covid 19 patients whose treatment has been written up in medical journals. In two that he did almost back to back, both had a drop in blood oxygen on about day 10 of the illness after symptoms began. Both were given supplementary oxygen via either a mask or a nasal canula for about 3 days, and then they both felt better on about day 14 and recovered. He said that in his opinion this oxygen had been crucial and without it things would have got really bad for them. His concern is that if patients need oxygen for even a day or esp. 3 or so days, that there simply aren't enough facilities to cope with a large demand.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:58pm
Hi Kiwi, here In the states all hospital bes have oxygen at the beds, not ventilator just O2. I am not sure how many ventilators hospitals have. Denver metro area has only 4,000 hospital beds for 1 million people. With 80% not very sick means 20% are serious to critical we are in trouble. So if we have 50k sick that means 10k serious and only 4K beds.

We are in big trouble! CRS says they will not close schools but when hospitals are full and people are dying they will do what China and Italy are doing shut down the only was to slow the virus.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Touchoftheblues Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 1:17am
Babycat and CRS, I agree with you both and I have respect for both of your opinions having read through numerous posts.  I think panic will be driven by the accelerated death rate caused by overwhelmed hospitals. Batten down the hatches. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 2:59am
 Don't Panic

What does that even mean?

There are no signs of panic in the US. If and when conditions merit panic, it will be too late to panic. Assuming of course we can accurately define "panic

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We only have 6 vents at our local hospital. We don't have the facilities to handle 100's of people. We are going to have a disaster on our hands. It will be 1918 all over again. People will drop like flies. ICU is going to be a mess.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 6:11am
Campbell knows the British system and ALL our hospital beds have oxygen. He must mean even that is not enough!
ERCD
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"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself." 

Here are some facts about COVID-19: 

a) We are at the beginning of the epidemic curve, and data is still being generated.  Although there have been mortalities, analysis shows that this tends to be a very mild disease in most cases, and a huge proportion of people who catch the SARS-CoV2 do not even become symptomatic.  

b)  Most of the cases who perish seem to have old age or pre-existing conditions, and in this way, COVID-19 acts somewhat like Legionnaire's Disease.  I could probably go to all of your houses and isolate Legionella bacteria from your shower-heads - why aren't you all dying from it?  Exposure to an agent doesn't guarantee illness/death. 

c)  Coronaviruses are spread via respiratory droplets, but how closely do any of us get within someone sick who hacks all over us?  Not so much.  The greater mechanism for transmittal is fecal/oral.  Research shows that most (MOST) people do not wash their hands after using a public bathroom, so faucet handles, door handles, etc. are covered in a thin film of fecal residue.  Even if you wash your hands, do you use a paper towel to then open the door to leave?  I doubt if you do, this is standard procedure in hospitals.  

d)  As usual, the public health folks are badly bungling this.  I've seen this happen since 1976, when the Ford Administration panicked about a few cases of "swine flu" in Kansas, and many were hurt from a rushed vaccine.  Public Health folks panicked about H5N1 bird flu (doesn't infect humans unless you get a lungful of chicken poop), H1N1 swine flu from Mexico, and now this bug.  

Will we be dying in the streets?  Nope.  You are peddling disaster-porn.  There are scenarios much worse than COVID-19, and I'm always watching for them on behalf of US Public Health and law enforcement.  

However, this will put the world into a good recession or even depression, so guard your finances.  You may not get deathly ill, but you might get wiped out.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Touchoftheblues Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 9:09am
d)  As usual, the public health folks are badly bungling this.  I've seen this happen since 1976, when the Ford Administration panicked about a few cases of "swine flu" in Kansas, and many were hurt from a rushed vaccine.  Public Health folks panicked about H5N1 bird flu (doesn't infect humans unless you get a lungful of chicken poop), H1N1 swine flu from Mexico, and now this bug

Looks like the WHO won’t disappoint in the bungling department. They now say that “pandemic” is no longer a term that the WHO uses so they’ll just stick to calling it an emergency. 

Maybe in terms of minimizing panic, this is a good move but only if the disease really is just a bad cold. Otherwise it’s just criminally negligent to let people go about their day with no warning that a threat is incoming. 

CRS, everything points to a CFR of around 2% and if I compare current deaths to cases from 3 weeks ago, (which seems to be the average time it take to kill someone), it’s closer to 14%. I don’t understand why you keep saying it’s an overblown cold. Isn’t 2% plenty bad enough for a SHTF pandemic?


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rjw Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 9:26am
If this is a nothing event then why did China shut down its cities and damage its economy? Why call it a grave crisis?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 10:14am
Originally posted by Touchoftheblues Touchoftheblues wrote:

d)  As usual, the public health folks are badly bungling this.  I've seen this happen since 1976, when the Ford Administration panicked about a few cases of "swine flu" in Kansas, and many were hurt from a rushed vaccine.  Public Health folks panicked about H5N1 bird flu (doesn't infect humans unless you get a lungful of chicken poop), H1N1 swine flu from Mexico, and now this bug

Looks like the WHO won’t disappoint in the bungling department. They now say that “pandemic” is no longer a term that the WHO uses so they’ll just stick to calling it an emergency. 

Maybe in terms of minimizing panic, this is a good move but only if the disease really is just a bad cold. Otherwise it’s just criminally negligent to let people go about their day with no warning that a threat is incoming. 

CRS, everything points to a CFR of around 2% and if I compare current deaths to cases from 3 weeks ago, (which seems to be the average time it take to kill someone), it’s closer to 14%. I don’t understand why you keep saying it’s an overblown cold. Isn’t 2% plenty bad enough for a SHTF pandemic?

This is why: 

a) we are at the beginning of an outbreak (NOT a pandemic, it isn't a pandemic until there is sustained human-to-human transmission in multiple countries on different continents).  We are not a pandemic yet, but it is trending that way. 

b) results of analysis are showing that the great majority of cases are very mild, and many infections are not even being detected.  Therefore, the CFR is likely to be far less than 2%.  

c)  SHTF pandemic?  LOL  The only SHTF is on the stock market.  Panic is causing stocks to plunge, easily predicted.  SARS was a MUCH worse outbreak with higher CFR, and stocks did plunge a bit on that one, but not this much. 

People seem to be reading too many books or watching too many zombie movies.  I'm sorry for the lives lost in this outbreak (NOT pandemic), but seasonal flu kills more.   We are about 3,000 COVID-19 fatalities thus far.  Likely more in the near future, but it is already slowing down in China, where most cases are.  

CDC estimates that from October through mid-January, there have been upwards of 21 million cases of flu illnesses and anywhere between 8,200–20,000 deaths resulting from the flu. 



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 10:36am
I suspect the real CFR is higher than 2%, but probably not by much.

Having said that I find this far more worrying than the flu.

1, Not only no vaccine, but never has been one for a coronavirus.
2, Massively long stays in the ICU, there are insufficient beds for that.
3, Higher R0 than the flu, higher even than pandemic flu.
4, The world's greatest superspreaders - kids - are largely asymptomatic.
5, Infection does not seem to confer immunity for survivors, or if it does then not for long.
6, The 'pandemic' has not officially started yet, but already there is supply chain interrupion.
7, NONE of our figures are reliable, as China, the epicentre, are a bunch of liars. Their actions show a far more worrying problem than their claims would warrant.


I could go on   ................   and on   ...................   and on   ..............
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Touchoftheblues Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 10:37am
A.) We have uncontrolled human to human transmission in 2 countries in Asia and one in Europe. That’s level 6, straight out of the WHO playbook. Which is exactly why this thread was created in the first place. 

B.)  I’ve heard this argument a lot. Lots of unreported cases so it must mean the CFR is lower.  People can believe what they like but seems to me, if there’s unreported cases...there’s unreported deaths. 

C.) stock markets are a good indicator of what’s to come. Whether it’s an over reaction or not, it’s happening for good reason. 

I’m not a zombie movie guy, I’m just paying attention to the news. Part of my criteria for bugging out to the cabin is when I see grocery store shelves clear out like they are in South Korea and Italy.  That’s real, not a scene from a movie. When the food is in short supply people will turn in to animals. Remember the super dome incident after Katrina?  Those people went ape in a matter of days. I’ll watch from a distance. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Touchoftheblues Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 10:43am
Excellent points technophobe. Those are all reasons why I began prepping in January. Nothing else in my lifetime has given me cause to do so up until this point. I should have, but this is what lit a fire under my feet. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 10:48am
I have seen pandemics and outbreaks that worried me before, but never on the scale that this one does.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Touchoftheblues Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 10:49am
Yep, this is different. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 10:53am
The stock market is not selling due to a panic and fear of dying. They are selling because many companies such as AAPL, Micron, etc... and many tech companies do business with (in) China, and a lot of it has come to a halt. Auto makers here in the U.S. such as Toyota are not able to get various parts they need out of China. China plays a key roll in the stock market. The big companies are issuing warnings about these issues as mandated by the SEC.

Also, comparing this with the flu once again is not making a lot of sense. If the same 21 million get infected with Corona, 500 - 600k would die (way more than 8,000 - 20,000), and significantly more than the flu. Of course with the flu there is also a vax, so potentially more could eventually become infected over time with COVID-19.

Not buying into the flu comparison with the CFR is clearly higher. No-brainer.

Also, I've heard the CFR in China is going to most likely increase soon as they are going to be checking apartments and homes for deceased body counts. There were also many pneumonia deaths not counted, and again, no doubt many deceased in homes not counted.

Believing all info coming out of China is never a wise move, but unfortunately that's all we've had to go on. I believe Italy and S. Korea have a CFR of around 3%, and far higher in Iran.

This one has met two of the 3 criteria for being a pandemic, and like I said, this is clearly the beginning of the next pandemic, albeit not full blown.

A lot of the fear comes from, well, that nobody fully believes China, and very reckless to go that route. Way too early to predict any fatality rate and to discount it. Let's keep an eye on Italy, S. Korea, japan and the Middle East for additional info and a more accurate CFR.    


      

    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 10:56am
We all love Chuck lol, but he may be downplaying it a little too much, or too early. We're all entitled to our views. :) Comparing it (and the potential) to the seasonal flu, well, people lose me on that one.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 10:59am
I've never known Chuck to get it wrong before - and I have.

But I still think I'm right on this one.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mjm1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 11:29am
I'd say we were already at the pandemic level. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 11:42am
Checking back on CDC update yesterday ,should have posted this also. Respirator conservation strategy?

Preparing first responders, healthcare providers, and health systems

  • Establishing visibility across healthcare systems to understand healthcare use, particularly surges in demand for medical care and associated resources.
  • Conducting extensive outreach to clinical and hospital professional organizations to ensure health system preparedness.
  • Producing more than 23 guidance documents on infection control, hospital preparedness assessments, personal protective equipment (PPE) supply planning, and clinical evaluation and management (as of February 22, 2020).
    • Working closely with healthcare facilities and providers to reinforce infection control principles that recognize PPE is one component of a larger set of practices that help to limit the spread of disease.
    • Developing a range of respirator conservation strategies, including strategies to make supplies last longer (such as using alternative products like reusable respirators) and extending the use of disposable respirators.
  • Leveraging existing telehealth tools to direct people to the right level of healthcare for their medical needs.
  • Working with supply chain partners to understand supply usage, what products are available, and when more aggressive measures may need to be taken to ensure that healthcare workers at highest risk have access to PPE.
  • Sharing information with stakeholders to help them recognize when to shift the strategies they are using.

Reinforcing state, territorial, and local public health readiness

  • Assessing state and local readiness to implement community mitigation measures like home containment, including housing and transportation needs.
  • Coordinating with states to identify and mitigate gaps in readiness that will help reduce the spread of disease in the community while protecting workers, infrastructure, and institutions.
  • Linking public health agencies and healthcare systems to identify and mitigate stressors to the health system.
  • Tracking stockpiles of PPE across jurisdictions.
  • Working with state and local public health to use existing Public Health Emergency Preparedness (PHEP) funding to support COVID-19 preparedness and response activities.
  • Leveraging funding mechanisms to help states accelerate preparedness activities.
  • Providing technical assistance and guidance to states to improve their ability to respond to the outbreak.

Supporting communities, businesses, and schools

  • Creating business guidance to help the public and private sectors ensure they are able to operate with adaptations like telework and flexible sick leave policies, as well as how to respond if an employee gets sick.
  • Developing guidance for childcare programs, K-12 schools, and colleges/universities to help them plan and prepare for COVID-19 and respond if there is a local outbreak in their community.
  • Providing planning guides for COVID-19 that households, community- and faith-based organizations, event planners of mass gatherings, and public health communicators can use.
  • Educating communities about nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that help slow the spread of illness, like COVID-19.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 11:57am
"People seem to be reading too many books or watching too many zombie movies. I'm sorry for the lives lost in this outbreak (NOT pandemic), but seasonal flu kills more.   We are about 3,000 COVID-19 fatalities thus far. Likely more in the near future, but it is already slowing down in China, where most cases are."

   How many fatalities are enough?
   How many infections before one should heed the advice here?
   Is there a specific number that meets the threshold?
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

Hi Kiwi, here In the states all hospital bes have oxygen at the beds, not ventilator just O2. I am not sure how many ventilators hospitals have. Denver metro area has only 4,000 hospital beds for 1 million people. With 80% not very sick means 20% are serious to critical we are in trouble. So if we have 50k sick that means 10k serious and only 4K beds.

We are in big trouble! CRS says they will not close schools but when hospitals are full and people are dying they will do what China and Italy are doing shut down the only was to slow the virus.


Hi Flumom, yes they have O2 by all the beds here but we don't have many beds. They also have O2 in nursing homes and at the doctors surgeries but still I don't think that will be enough to offer oxygen therapy to people who need a boost to raise their oxygen levels and facilitate healing. I'm worried too. He seems a very sensible man not prone to panic and I think he makes a very good point.
You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 12:12pm
Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

Hi Kiwi, here In the states all hospital bes have oxygen at the beds, not ventilator just O2. I am not sure how many ventilators hospitals have. Denver metro area has only 4,000 hospital beds for 1 million people. With 80% not very sick means 20% are serious to critical we are in trouble. So if we have 50k sick that means 10k serious and only 4K beds.

We are in big trouble! CRS says they will not close schools but when hospitals are full and people are dying they will do what China and Italy are doing shut down the only was to slow the virus.


Hi Flumom, yes they have O2 by all the beds here but we don't have many beds. They also have O2 in nursing homes and at the doctors surgeries but still I don't think that will be enough to offer oxygen therapy to people who need a boost to raise their oxygen levels and facilitate healing. I'm worried too. He seems a very sensible man not prone to panic and I think he makes a very good point.

Thank you.  I have 30+ years of advanced training in infectious disease epidemiology and outbreak analysis, including working on the origins of Legionnaire's Disease and AIDS.  

The genie is out of the bottle....please read this article.  

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