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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

H5N1 pandemic

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: H5N1 pandemic
    Posted: March 31 2024 at 12:07am

DJ, I hate "fear-porn" but I do believe in "early warning" ! From a history perspective lots of "bad things" may have been prevented if "we opened our eyes in time" !

Wishfull thinking and "saving profits "the economy" may end up very destructive because governments fail to take action in time ! 

CoViD-19/SARS-2 -like SARS-1 in 2003- could have been stopped before it did become a pandemic ! [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_China[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_China ; On 23 January 2020, the central government of China imposed a lockdown in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei in an effort to quarantine the center of an outbreak of COVID-19; this action was commonly referred to as the Wuhan lockdown (Chinese武汉封城pinyinWǔhàn fēng chéng). The World Health Organization (WHO), although stating that it was beyond its own guidelines, commended the move, calling it "unprecedented in public health history".[2]

yet most of the world did NOT take action in time...M.Koopmans-top virologists; NL has no need to worry because there are no direct flights from Wuhan-China to NL ...(was it APRIL !!!??? 2020 she made that claim ???)

-----

H5N1 was a global problem in 2022, 2023 most in birds all over the planet being infected with High Pathogenic Avian Influenza HPAI A-H5N1...

In 2023 Argentina reported spread of H5N1 in sealions, from sealion to sealion...Lots of mammals did test positive for H5N1-very likely most of them after eating death infected birds or contact with infected bird droppings...

March 2024 did see H5N1 spreading in US cattle...from cow-to-cow...

HPAI in cattle: What does AI predict? "The high mutation rate ... leads to a concerning development - a novel strain emerges that has acquired the ability to efficiently spread from cattle to humans and then between humans" Reddit Virology https://reddit.com/r/Virology/comments/1br655j/so_in_the_rh5n1_avianflu_community_one_of_the/

DJ, AI is "far from perfect" however the scenario sounds very realistic;

So in the r/H5N1_AvianFlu community, one of the users asked Claude Opus, a generative AI model, what would happen in the worst case scenario. This is what Claude had to say. Thoughts? Should we trust an AI generative model or no?

This is how the prompt went…

Human transmission of the mutated HPAI virus, which we'll call the "Omega Strain," occurs about 2 months after the initial detection in dairy cows. 

Here's how it could unfold: Despite biosecurity measures, the virus continues to spread rapidly among cattle herds across the country. 

The high mutation rate of the virus leads to a concerning development - a novel strain emerges that has acquired the ability to efficiently spread from cattle to humans and then between humans. 

The first human cases are reported among dairy farm workers who had close contact with infected cows. 

They experience severe flu-like symptoms that quickly progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and multi-organ failure. 

The case fatality rate in this initial cluster is a frightening 60%

Human-to-human transmission is soon confirmed as family members and healthcare workers treating the patients also fall ill. 

The virus spreads rapidly in healthcare settings and communities, overwhelming hospitals in affected areas. 

Within weeks, the Omega Strain has spread to all major U.S. cities and begins to appear in other countries. 

The global medical community scrambles to understand the virus and develop treatments, but its high mutation rate makes it a challenging target.

 In this scenario, the Omega Strain could have a case fatality rate of around 35-40% overall, higher in older adults and those with underlying health conditions. 

It would be particularly devastating in densely populated urban areas and countries with weaker health systems. 

By the 6-month mark, the worldwide death toll could reach into the tens of millions as countries struggle to control the spread and treat the sick. 

The pandemic would cause massive social and economic disruption on a global scale.


Is this really what will happen, or should we just wait and see? Should we always trust AI? I have a grandfather myself, and he’s in his 80’s, and I do not want him to be amongst this group as he’s coming to live with us.

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2024 at 12:21am

part 2;








Replying to  and 
In Europe, there are major protest from farmers since months. So, govs will be quite reluctant to test cattle, as it could ignite fear among consumers... and in few weeks we have major EU elections 😅

DJ, When one looks at how "politics" totally failed and made CoViD-19 into a pandemic "saving the economy" I do not doubt "present politics" will do "all they can" to also send H5N1 on a world tour....

[url]https://twitter.com/ejustin46/status/1773968684668637277[/url] or https://twitter.com/ejustin46/status/1773968684668637277 Among Others;

8) 𝗕 𝗰𝗲𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝗱𝘆𝘀𝗿𝗲𝗴𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 B cells is of such importance, particularly in the infection - reinfection process, that we will return in a mega-thread especially dedicated to this subject. Thanks for reading 🙏
Quote







Emmanuel

@ejustin46
·
SARS-COV-2. T CELLS and B CELLS EXPLAINED

DJ link to a thread explaining how CoViD-19 destroys immunity...so; the doors are wide open for H5N1 ! 

[url]https://twitter.com/siamosolocani/status/1773056496223305987[/url] or https://twitter.com/siamosolocani/status/1773056496223305987 ;

This is a great study coming from Nigeria finding Sars1 and Sars2 crossreactives antibodies between 2020-22 in wild/domestic animals. I m not a virologist but it seems very well done. Congrats to  authors:    Et al
Quote







Emmanuel

@ejustin46
·
𝗦𝗔𝗥𝗦-𝗖𝗼𝗩 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝗔𝗥𝗦-𝗖𝗼𝗩 -2 𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀-𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗯𝗼𝗱𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗱𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗺𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗹𝗶𝗳𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗡𝗶𝗴𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗮 𝘀𝘂𝗴𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗶𝗿𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝘀𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗿𝘂𝘀𝗲𝘀 Key study! https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771424000351

DJ....CoViD is NOT over...it may even be SARS-1 and SARS-2 "did meet and mix"...so we may see another-new-CoViD pandemic...Mixed with H5N1 we could end up with "Flu-Rona"...only the name is "nice"...

[url]https://twitter.com/ejustin46[/url] or https://twitter.com/ejustin46 lots of info...

Wars and climate collapse are "perfect feeding grounds" for pandemics...

end of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2024 at 12:29am

part 3;

[url]https://www.reddit.com/r/Virology/comments/1br655j/so_in_the_rh5n1_avianflu_community_one_of_the/[/url] or https://www.reddit.com/r/Virology/comments/1br655j/so_in_the_rh5n1_avianflu_community_one_of_the/ has comments-maybe interesting views,

Also DJ-I am NOT any kind of expert...I am NOT writing any "science"...just trying to make my mind up....

-We will miss 95-99% of H5N1 cases in animals...maybe even more...

-Here in NL sometimes the number of dead birds from H5N1 was that large only those bodies near urban area's were destroyed..

-So in many places wild animals did eat H5N1 infected birds...

-Bird droppings also may have the H5N1 virus...

-Dried infected droppings could result in virus spread by the wind..."viral-dust"...

DJ-Of course there are LOTS of ways to stop getting infected! Masks do help ! Ventilation lowers viral loads ! 

We could increase testing for H5N1 in mammals...problem is we are NOT doing it ! 

-Avoiding panic

-Saving the economy...

DJ-You NEED an economy to have public healthcare...but you also need to be aware of risks, find a balance and a will to face problems !

Part of a comment;


The high mutation rate of the virus leads to a concerning development - a novel strain emerges that has acquired the ability to efficiently spread from cattle to humans and then between humans.

Cows are likely not going to be the source for this type of spillover.

The case fatality rate in this initial cluster is a frightening 60%.

Historically HPAI H5 is at about a 60% CFR, so this is probably where it's pulling the number from. This changes a lot with many factors, but a transmissible cluster at this CFR is highly unlikely.

The global medical community scrambles to understand the virus and develop treatments, but its high mutation rate makes it a challenging target.

We have antivirals and vaccines against H5, so this isn't the case.

In this scenario, the Omega Strain could have a case fatality rate of around 35-40% overall, higher in older adults and those with underlying health conditions.

That would be an order of magnitude higher than anything seen in transmissible flu settings. It's pulling from case data, but there's a pretty significant underreporting factor that moderates that. Still even 10 fold less would be a nightmarish virus.

By the 6-month mark, the worldwide death toll could reach into the tens of millions as countries struggle to control the spread and treat the sick

Anything that deadly would bring the world to a halt worse than we saw with COVID. I don't think we'd ever seen numbers like this in 6 months. That's too Hollywood.



DJ, H5N1 has now been detected to be spreading between sealions, cows....we may have missed a lot of mammal-to-mammal spread...

End of part 3...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2024 at 1:48am

part 4,

Another comment;

Pigs are the common source of true pandemic leap from livestock to human, so maybe general farmer? 

But a slaughterhouse is a much more likely jumping off point, lots of blood, very close quarters, animals from all over you get the picture. 

As for CFR, HPAI has a CFR of 50%+ when its host is an animal because of several factors, but no flu in history that’s spreading H2H rapidly has even approached 50%, it would simply burn itself out. 

This is basically virology version of the FAFO chart, as CFR goes up, R0 tends to go down, so 50% CFR leading to a global pandemic like COVID is statistically and biologically impossible. 

You’re more likely case is “Slaughterhouse worked in Iowa reports to local health clinic and dies from flu like symptoms 5 days later, CDC receives a flu sample indicating H5N1 has jumped to humans. 

Several other members of his factory have symptoms and the doctor who treated him has become sick as well, flash forward 6 months and CFR of 1.1% in elderly and young with a CFR of .3% in young(we must take into account immunological imprinting and almost everyone 60 and younger have been exposed to H1N1 since birth so we get a slight leg up plus our good immune system). 

This will undoubtedly be a cataclysmic loss of life but it is not the earth ending pandemic of a 50% CFR

-

Hope you are right, but HPAI has been causing havoc among migratory birds, poultry and mammals since the 90's and possibly even earlier, even though it has a high CFR. 

Also, pigs were thought to be the main organism of concern as a mixing vessel, though recent studies suggest a lot more organisms are potential mixing vessels, such as dogs and felines.

 I think the first human transmissible HPAI will he due to poultry-human contact, due to this clade's capability to spill over without a mixing vessels, as did happen to seals, cats, cows, pigs and other mammals..

DJ, H5N1 in US cows did NOT kill those -still very limited number of- cows...Cow-to-cow spread of H5N1 has to be seen as part of a much larger global trend;

-H5N1 is getting very widespread both in areaś and "hosts"

-CoViD may decrease immunity

-Politics do not seem to have public health as a high priority

-Lots of wars/crises around the globe...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/987828-discussion-thread-hpai-in-us-dairy-cows-march-24?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/987828-discussion-thread-hpai-in-us-dairy-cows-march-24?view=stream (a.o. trying to get some basic idea). 

sharon sanders

I do not know what assay is being used to test cattle for H5N1 at this time but from 2008:

"...Our findings show that HPAIV (H5N1) has the potential to infect bovine calves, at least after high-titer intranasal inoculation, and that conventional HI tests may underestimate such infections....The NP-ELISA is currently the assay of choice for the evaluation of bovine serum, and the VN test should be used for confirmation..."


Emerg Infect Dis. 2008 Jul; 14 - Experimental Infection of Cattle with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus (H5N1)

DJ...again...pointing to higher risk...

end of part 4

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2024 at 2:02am

part 5,

Any info on the status of the dairy farmers and their employees on the affected dairy farms in TX, KS, NM, ID , and MI? Are they being treated with antivirals; monitored for flu-like signs or eye problems; tested for highly pathogenic avian influenza; and/or isolated? #vogelgriep

-








Replying to 
That’s strange. Given that highly pathogenic avian influenza virus was found in milk samples in 3 of the first 4 affected farms and that an average of 10% of the dairy cows were ill, employees working in the milking parlours were at risk of virus exposure and should be checked.

-DJ...very likely "limited testing" to "limit damage"....So farm workers, farm cats/dogs may NOT be tested...

[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2024/03/articles/animals/other-animals/avian-flu-in-cattlewhat-to-be-concerned-about-and-what-to-not-freak-out-about/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2024/03/articles/animals/other-animals/avian-flu-in-cattlewhat-to-be-concerned-about-and-what-to-not-freak-out-about/ ;

By Scott Weese on 
POSTED IN OTHER ANIMALS


Recent reports of H5N1 avian flu in cattle in the US have gotten a lot of attention.

There’s a good reason for that, but as is typical, some has gone a bit over the top.

  • This is certainly a noteworthy event.
  • Some aspects of this are concerning.
  • Many aspects are unclear.

It’s not, at this point, a game changer in terms of what this avian pandemic virus is doing, but it’s yet another reason we need to pay attention of animals and flu.

Quick primer…we’re seeing an unprecedented, sustained pandemic H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPIA) in myriad bird populations internationally. (Note…the ‘highly pathogenic’ moniker is based on what how it behaves in poultry, where it can be devastating. That doesn’t mean it’s necessarily highly pathogenic in people or other mammals. H

While 99.99+% of infections have been in birds, there’s been spillover into a really wide range of mammals, including domestic species such as dogs, cats, goats and, now, cattle. Often, these have been fatal infections. Whether that’s because infections are severe when they occur or we just see the severe infections (since most are in wildlife) isn’t clear.

DJ...we do not know if 99,99% of H5N1 spread has been in birds...Very likely -so far- over 95% of H5N1 cases will have been in birds...However cow-to-cow, sealion-to-sealion spread IS alarming....

And again...the H5N1 spread has to be seen in the context of decrease of immunity...More H5N1 in mammals will result in new variants better able to spread in mammals (including humans)...

High Case Fatality Ratio MAY !!!! result in lower R0/spread...however history may indicate pandemics can bring high CFR and high R0....(that is what makes them bad news...). 

Enough for now...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2024 at 12:39am

DJ, In  a very optimistic scenario H5N1 in US cows are limited, stop spreading and will be over, "old news" in a few months...Case-Fatality-Ratio remain 0...Cows feel "unwell" produce less milk...Most of the damage is economic; milk can 't be sold...cow-meat may not be sold as well...

The bigger picture is H5N1 has been seen in lots of mammals [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mammals_that_can_get_H5N1[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mammals_that_can_get_H5N1 (the wiki-list will be updated)...

Spread from cow-to-cow, sealion-to-sealion is a "major worry"....Also H5N1 can mix with other types of flu-result in a much higher risk type of flu...

BMJ: The real human case-fatality rate of HPAI H5N1 avian influenza "Based on surveillance and seroprevalence studies conducted in several countries, the real H5N1 [case fatality] rate should be closer to 14–33%." JECH/BMJ  

link; [url]https://jech.bmj.com/content/62/6/555.abstract[/url] or https://jech.bmj.com/content/62/6/555.abstract ;

Abstract

Background: Accurate estimation of the case-fatality (CF) rate, or the proportion of cases that die, is central to pandemic planning. While estimates of CF rates for past influenza pandemics have ranged from about 0.1% (1957 and 1968 pandemics) to 2.5% (1918 pandemic), the official World Health Organization estimate for the current outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza to date is around 60%.

Methods and results: The official estimate of the H5N1 CF rate has been described by some as an over-estimate, with little relevance to the rate that would be encountered under pandemic conditions. The reasons for such opinions are typically: (i) numerous undetected asymptomatic/mild cases, (ii) under-reporting of cases by some countries for economic or other reasons, and (iii) an expected decrease in virulence if and when the virus becomes widely transmitted in humans. Neither current data nor current literature, however, adequately supports these scenarios. While the real H5N1 CF rate could be lower than the current estimate of 60%, it is unlikely that it will be at the 0.1–0.4% level currently embraced by many pandemic plans. We suggest that, based on surveillance and seroprevalence studies conducted in several countries, the real H5N1 CF rate should be closer to 14–33%.

Conclusions: Clearly, if such a CF rate were to be sustained in a pandemic, H5N1 would present a truly dreadful scenario. A concerted and dedicated effort by the international community to avert a pandemic through combating avian influenza in animals and humans in affected countries needs to be a global priority.




DJ, CFR is "just one statistic", long term damage (like with CoViD, Q-fever, Lyme etc.) has to be another major worry...

ALSO;

CoViD is NOT over ! Co-infections of H5N1 with CoViD, Mpox etc. will worsen the outcome of major spread of H5N1 !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2024 at 12:34pm
sharon sanders
Human case in Texas:

-

Pathfinder
CDC Newsroom Releases:

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Virus Infection Reported in a Person in the U.S.

CDC’s Risk Assessment for the General Public Remains Low

Press Release
For Immediate Release: Monday, April 1, 2024
...
Press releases, advisories, telebriefings, transcripts and archives.

-

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2024 at 12:52pm

[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/04/cdc-statement-risk-assessment-on-texas.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/04/cdc-statement-risk-assessment-on-texas.html ;

The CDC has weighed in, via an emailed press release (I'll update a link when I find one), on the Texas H5N1 case announced about 45 minutes ago by the DSHS.  For now, this appears to be an isolated case, although monitoring and testing of close contacts is undoubtedly underway.


Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Virus Infection Reported in a Person in the U.S.

 

CDC’s Risk Assessment for the General Public Remains Low

 

 

April 1, 2024—A person in the United States has tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) virus (“H5N1 bird flu”), as reported by Texas and confirmed by CDC. This person had exposure to dairy cattle in Texas presumed to be infected with HPAI A(H5N1) viruses. The patient reported eye redness (consistent with conjunctivitis), as their only symptom, and is recovering. The patient was told to isolate and is being treated with an antiviral drug for flu.

This infection does not change the H5N1 bird flu human health risk assessment for the U.S. general public, which CDC considers to be low. However, people with close or prolonged, unprotected exposures to infected birds or other animals (including livestock), or to environments contaminated by infected birds or other animals, are at greater risk of infection. CDC has interim recommendations for prevention, monitoring, and public health investigations of HPAI A(H5N1) viruses.

 

--

This is the second person reported to have tested positive for influenza A(H5N1) viruses in the United States. A previous human case occurred in 2022 in ColoradoHuman infections with avian influenza A viruses, including A(H5N1) viruses, are uncommon but have occurred sporadically worldwide. CDC has been monitoring for illness among people exposed to H5 virus-infected birds since outbreaks were first detected in U.S. wild birds and poultry in late 2021. Human illnesses with H5N1 bird flu have ranged from mild (e.g., eye infection, upper respiratory symptoms) to severe illness (e.g., pneumonia) that have resulted in death in other countries.

--

Preliminary analysis of A(H5N1) viruses has not found changes that would make these viruses resistant to current FDA-approved flu antiviral medications, so these are believed to be effective against these viruses. Candidate vaccine viruses (CVVs) developed against related clade 2.3.4.4b viruses are available for vaccine manufacturing if necessary and preliminary analysis indicates that they may provide reasonable protection against H5N1 influenza viruses. Seasonal flu vaccines do not provide protection against these viruses. Analysis of virus samples is ongoing.

DJ, H5N1 may cause no or only mild symptoms-so easy to miss...








Two people have been diagnosed with bird flu in England

-[url]https://www.mediarunsearch.co.uk/two-people-have-been-diagnosed-with-bird-flu-in-england/[/url] or https://www.mediarunsearch.co.uk/two-people-have-been-diagnosed-with-bird-flu-in-england/ 

Two people have been diagnosed with bird flu in England

APRIL 1, 2024 

Two people have been diagnosed with bird flu in England, according to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), on Tuesday (16/5).

The infected people are poultry farmers who work on a farm where cases of bird flu infection among animals have already been confirmed. They are infected with influenza A (H5) virus, but have no symptoms of illness. Confirmation was made through an asymptomatic testing program for people who had contact with infected birds.

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1#Human_infections[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1#Human_infections ;

Human infections[edit]

As of March 2024, the WHO reported a total of 888 confirmed human cases which resulted in the deaths of 463 people since 2003.[5]

DJ a list at [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1#Transmission_and_host_range[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1#Transmission_and_host_range ;

Confirmed human cases and mortality rate of avian influenza (H5N1) 2003–2024

DJ, since a lot of mild/asymptomatic cases will be missed the CFR will be much lower-however co-infections may push up the CFR

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2024 at 3:11pm

can we talk about how seriously you all are taking this.  it seems huge to me and I am planning on stocking up on more food and water.  What do you guys think?  We live rural but it has grown so also wondering when we should pack up and go to our mountain cabin!  what will be the signs that make you do that/!?!


NOW is the Season to Know

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2024 at 9:57pm

roni3470, my non expert-far from perfect-view;

-War situation = very bad, getting worse for now...

-Climate situation = very bad also worsening...

-Pandemic situation = bad

On H5N1, at least three human cases reported april 1; 1 US-Texas and 2 from UK...all mild. Very likely an increase of testing will increase findings.

My view; new types of the H5N1 virus may have seen some mutations resulting in more spread in mammals. So cows, humans may run more risks.

It may be -for now- very hard to be 100% certain of spread from sealion-to-sealion, cow-to-cow...however from a risk management view one should not wait for such proof.

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1#Transmission_and_host_range[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1#Transmission_and_host_range has 888 human cases testing positive for H5N1 since 2003.

Both Cambodia and Vietnam did report a human death linked to H5N1 this year. Given the very limited number of detected human cases the Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) may give an overestimation. Real CFR may also differ from the variant of H5N1. Some forms of H5N1 could have a CFR of 0....not much worse than a cold...

-

The problem is in recombinations, coinfections, aerosol spread etc. 

Lots of other diseases (from measles, dengue to Mpox, CoViD) may be getting worse. 

Signs and symptoms of a bird flu infection Fever/chills (temp. of 100°F [37.8°C] or greater) Cough Sore throat Runny or stuffy nose Headaches Fatigue Eye redness (conjunctivitis) Difficulty breathing/shortness of breath Diarrhea Nausea Vomiting Seizures https://dshs.texas.gov/news-alerts/health-alert-first-case-novel-influenza-h5n1-texas-march-2024

A lot of these symptoms can be indicators for lots of diseases...even most polio-cases may have some of the same symptoms...

If I would use a "color-scale" for "mixed dangers" BLACK may be the worst...we may however be moving from RED to PURPLE...just one step away from BLACK...

Maybe another remark; "moving into a safe place" to early may limit safety of that "safe place" (using reserves etc.). Timing in a crisis matters-but timing NEVER can be 100% perfect. 

Just my view...from an urban area in NL...if you are in a position with "lots of safe places" it may influence your view. 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2024 at 10:24pm

DJ, 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-america-might-emerge-as-the-epicenter-for-a-global-h5n1-outbreak-after-the-avian-virus-infecting-dairy-cows-jumps-to-a-human-in-texas[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-america-might-emerge-as-the-epicenter-for-a-global-h5n1-outbreak-after-the-avian-virus-infecting-dairy-cows-jumps-to-a-human-in-texas TMN

I can not copy from this site. Often it has links to sources. The info is NOT always "perfect"..but it may be "thought provoking"...Some claims in the article;

-US department for Agriculture estimate 2,7 million US cows may have the H5N1 virus (a source for that would be welcome !)

-Texas maje got H5N1 from an infected cow. Cow-to-cow spread and "just one or two mutations away" from jumping/spreading in humans.

-CoViD19 limited immunity resulting in farm workers more vulnerable to H5N1.

-End of april could see start of H2H spread - some US health agencies may think possible...

-In the US increase of surveilance for H5N1

-Animal health, public health, virologists etc. need to wotk together.

DJ-I wonder how TMN came with 2,7 million US cows may have H5N1. 

[url]https://www.science.org/content/article/bird-flu-discovered-u-s-dairy-cows-disturbing[/url] or https://www.science.org/content/article/bird-flu-discovered-u-s-dairy-cows-disturbing -others did not mention any numbers...

It may be to early to make claims on H5N1 spread in US cows. It could be "limited" with bird droppings in -just a few- areas "easy" spreading in cows. Maybe just one cow-to-cow infection ????

We need to know much more...will learn a lot this week-also from the UK, other places...[url]https://www.mediarunsearch.co.uk/two-people-have-been-diagnosed-with-bird-flu-in-england/[/url] or https://www.mediarunsearch.co.uk/two-people-have-been-diagnosed-with-bird-flu-in-england/The infected people are poultry farmers who work on a farm where cases of bird flu infection among animals have already been confirmed.

So three human cases in "the news" on one day (april 1) all three mild/no symptoms...all three in contact with infected animals. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2024/04/articles/animals/other-animals/human-h5n1-likely-linked-to-cattle/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2024/04/articles/animals/other-animals/human-h5n1-likely-linked-to-cattle/ (from Canada...so why not mention the two UK cases ?)

Human H5N1 likely linked to cattle

By Scott Weese on 
POSTED IN OTHER ANIMALS

Following recent report of H5N1 avian flu in cattle in the US, there’s a report of a human infection likely liked to cattle contact. This is bound to get a lot of attention. To a large degree, it’s warranted, but it’s probably going to be overblown.

Here’s the story.: The CDC has reported H5N1 infection in a person from Texas that had been exposed to infected dairy cattle. The person had conjunctivitis (redness and swelling around the eyes) as the only clinical sign, so disease has been mild. They’ve been told to isolate and are receiving an antiviral drug. This is the 2nd known infection of a person in the US, following a 2022 case in Colorado in a person that got infected while culling infected poultry. That person also only had mild disease, with a couple days of fatigue.

I’d some up my initial thoughts as such:

Not good.

Not unexpected.

Not something to panic about.

Not something to ignore.

Not good because we don’t want people to get sick. It’s also not good because the more time this virus spends in people, the more chance it has to adapt to be better able to infect people. It also increases the chance of recombination with a human flu virus if the person gets exposed to human flu at the same time (fortunately, we’re not in prime human flu season now). That creates the potential for creation of a new virus with the human flu’s ability to spread widely in people but one that we don’t have good immune protection from since it’s different enough from strains we’ve been infected with or vaccinated against.

Not unexpected since we know that people can get infected with this strain. Human infections have been surprisingly rare given the scope of infections in myriad other species but we know they can occur. More contact with infected animals means more exposure risk. It’s another reminder of the value of routine infection control practices and the need to ramp those up with possible exposure to infected animals.

Not something to panic about because panic rarely helps. More than that, it’s good that disease has been mild in this person and other human cases. The virus is not, at the moment, adapted for being able to readily infect and transmit between people. We have a very small number of known infections in an ecosystem with millions of infected animals. That’s not meant to be dismissive, since this is a significantly concerning event, but it’s meant to provide balance.

Not something to ignore because of what could happen. A rare infection from direct contact with an infected animal isn’t a big deal. Adaptation of this virus to more readily infect people or recombination with a human flu virus would be a very big deal. That might not happen or it might have occurred already and it’s just not been identified yet. We don’t know. That’s why we need to be proactive and try to control the virus in domestic animals as much as we can (we’re kind of screwed when it comes to trying to control it in wildlife) and doing all we can to make sure infected people and animals do not get exposed to other flu viruses.

Time will tell. Hopefully we can keep taking appropriate measures (and up our game) to better contain this virus in domestic animals and people, and be prepared for the possible event that it becomes a human flu virus. We should have learned from lessons from COVID but I fear we’ve forgotten many of them already and have politicized things like public health measures and vaccination so much that we could be starting even farther behind than we would have a few years ago if something major develops.

Another thing to ponder. Is this the first instance or first diagnosis of H5N1 from cattle? That’s always a question. It could be this is the first person that’s (likely) gotten H5N1 from a cow. It’s possible that this has happened many times and we didn’t know because the cattle weren’t known to be infected, the person’s disease was mild and, because of that, there was no testing.

Context is important and is often lacking with emerging issues.

DJ, I put all of the (good) article to put things in perspective...YES there is a problem, NO we are -not yet- in any kind of human H5N1 pandemic !

Both the US -limited number of- cows as the latest three US/UK human H5N1 infections are (very) mild. 

More testing will increase "statistics" but make control better ! From that view...more H5N1 infections getting reported is "good news"; at least we are testing for it !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2024 at 1:51am







Replying to 
The lack of precautions taken, even to quarantine infected cows is worrying, given the high pathogenicity of the virus, and the very real risk of spillover into humans (as we're seeing now, with the first human case from this  particular outbreak has been detected)

On [url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 ;

Clinical epidemiology, machine learning,  NLP, global health. Intersectional feminist. she/her.  Also on @dgurdasani1@mastodon.world 

.bsky.social

DJ, so epidemiologists wondering why cows testing positive for H5N1 seem not to be seperated...








Study: The eyes have it - Influenza virus infection beyond the respiratory tract "Avian and human influenza A viruses alike have shown a capacity to use  the eye as a portal of entry and cause ocular disease in human beings." H/t 

On [url]https://twitter.com/MarionKoopmans[/url] or https://twitter.com/MarionKoopmans ;

Head of Viroscience Department , WHO collaborating centre EID
Rotterdam, The Netherlandserasmusmc.nl/en/research/de…

DJ...glasses/eye protection may limit infection risks...

[url]https://twitter.com/HmpxvT/status/1774873864603918454[/url] or https://twitter.com/HmpxvT/status/1774873864603918454 ;

⚠️ "Clinicians should consider the possibility of H5N1 virus infection in persons showing signs or symptoms of acute respiratory illness who have relevant exposure history" Case definitions and epidemiologic Criteria for testing can be seen below.

and 








Conjunctivitis in what looks like #cow2human H5N1. Glad to see that surveillance & reporting (including  's) work. Stay tuned, I guess.

DJ, we failed to stop CoViD-19/SARS becoming a pandemic-action in january 2020 could have prevented the pandemic...

So now we have to do ALL WE CAN !!! to contain further spread of H5N1 in mammals/humans...

testing may already be a major problem...spreading info is "just the groundwork"...

[url]https://twitter.com/1goodtern/status/1775046451040510260[/url] or https://twitter.com/1goodtern/status/1775046451040510260 underlining political failure can turn any virus into a pandemic...

Just to clarify my earlier tweet -there have been cases of unsustained human to human transmission seen in previous outbreaks (e.g. in China in 2008)- but not been seen in the current outbreak. To date, there have been no cases of sustained/efficient human to human transmission.

DJ,the major problem is H5N1 has been spreading in mammals -eating infected birds- for over two years...Millions of mammals may have had H5N1-infection...most likely mild in most cases...but it does increase mutations/variants...We simply may not know a lot of mammal-to-mammal (a symptomatic) spread...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2024 at 5:53am

DJ, H5N1 also in Texas cats;

Cats also involved in highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 outbreak in Texas and Kansas. #vogelgriep 1/2 https://dshs.texas.gov/news-alerts/health-alert-first-case-novel-influenza-h5n1-texas-march-2024

-

“Samples were collected and tested for influenza from several animals … including … #cats, … because they exhibited signs of illness. Some of the animals tested positive for influenza. Further testing of these samples indicated the presence of avian influenza A(H5N1).” 2/2

[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/04/usda-confirms-avian-flu-in-new-mexico.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/04/usda-confirms-avian-flu-in-new-mexico.html ;

Although New Mexico has been mentioned now for at least a week as having HPAI presumptive positive cattle, the verification process by the National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) - which is undoubtedly dealing with a large number of samples - can take some time. 

Late yesterday (April 1st) the USDA reported the samples from New Mexico were confirmed positive, along with 5 more cattle herds in Texas (n=7).  Four states are now confirmed (Texas, Kansas, Michigan & New Mexico), while confirmation of the presumptive positive results from Idaho remain pending.

It seems likely that additional infected herds will be announced in the days and weeks ahead.  While the only positive tests have come thus far from symptomatic dairy cows, it isn't clear how aggressively non-symptomatic cattle are being tested (or if the capacity even exists to do so on a large scale).

The USDA's FAQ, issued on March 29th (see excerpt below) makes it pretty clear they are concentrating primarily on testing symptomatic cattle.

-

Federal and state agencies continue to conduct additional testing in swabs from sick animals and in unpasteurized clinical milk samples from sick animals, as well as viral genome sequencing, to assess whether HPAI or another unrelated disease may be underlying any symptoms.

The NVSL has also confirmed that the strain of the virus found in subsequent states is very similar to the strain originally confirmed in cattle in Texas and Kansas that appears to have been introduced by wild birds (H5N1, Eurasian lineage goose/Guangdong clade 2.3.4.4b). Initial testing has not found changes to the virus that would make it more transmissible to humans. While cases among humans in direct contact with infected animals are possible, this indicates that the current risk to the public remains low.

There continues to be no concern that this circumstance poses a risk to consumer health, or that it affects the safety of the commercial milk supply because products are pasteurized before entering the market. Dairies are required to send only milk from healthy animals into processing for human consumption; milk from impacted animals is being diverted from the commercial milk tank or destroyed so that it does not enter the human food supply. In addition, pasteurization has continually proven to inactivate bacteria and viruses, like influenza, in milk. Pasteurization is required for any milk entering interstate commerce for human consumption. FDA’s longstanding position is that unpasteurized, raw milk can harbor dangerous microorganisms that can pose serious health risks to consumers, and FDA is reminding consumers of the risks associated with raw milk consumption in light of the HPAI detections.

Because of the limited information available about the transmission of HPAI in raw milk, the FDA recommends that industry does not manufacture or sell raw milk or raw/unpasteurized milk cheese products made with milk from cows showing symptoms of illness, including those infected with avian influenza or exposed to those infected with avian influenza. At this time, the FDA is not aware that any milk or dairy product from symptomatic cows is entering interstate commerce. Furthermore, if milk from cows showing symptoms of illness or exposed to those infected with avian influenza, is intended to be used to feed calves or other animals, FDA strongly encourages that it be pasteurized or otherwise heat treated to kill harmful bacteria or viruses, such as influenza, before calf feeding. Food safety information from FDA, including information about the sale and consumption of raw milk, can be found here.

Milk loss resulting from symptomatic cattle to date is too limited to have a major impact on supply and there should be no impact on the price of milk or other dairy products. Further, the U.S. typically has a more than sufficient milk supply in the spring months due to seasonally higher production.

-

While hopefully only symptomatic dairy cows are carrying the HPAI virus, until wider testing is conducted, that assumes facts that are not yet in evidence. And even if non-dairy cows aren't being infected today, that provides no guarantees for the future. 

Two weeks ago - despite evidence to the contrary -  it was widely assumed that cattle were not susceptible to HPAI (or any influenza A viruses).  As a result, it took weeks before anyone thought to test sick dairy cows for avian influenza.

Which means we don't really know how long the virus has been infecting cattle, or how widespread it has become.  In the same vein, yesterday's announced (mild) human infection would likely have gone undiagnosed if the alert hadn't been issued a week ago. 

In a few southern states some county and state fairs are already underway, with agricultural exhibits of both cattle and swine being well attended events.  Those numbers will increase over the summer and fall. 

While most fairs require the screening and barring of `sick animals' from exhibition, over the years we've learned that many pigs may be infected asymptomatically (see EID Journal: Flu In Healthy-Looking Pigs and Transmission Of Swine H3N2 To Humans At Agricultural Exhibits - Michigan & Ohio 2016).

It is unknown if HPAI in exhibition cattle will pose a similar risk, but the possibility can't be ignored. It is also reasonable that if cattle and goats are being infected via wild birds, that pigs may be at risk as well. 

While large scale testing of cattle or pigs may be impractical, pre-screening of animals prior to exhibition - including the use of RIDTs (Rapid Influenza Detection Tests) - may be worth serious consideration.  

Otherwise we risk finding out the hard way that HPAI is more entrenched in livestock than we think. 

DJ...recommendations...country/state fairs with mixing of cows, sheep, pigs, humans....

Did we learn anything ?????









#H5N1 updates A person* in the United States has tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) virus (“H5N1 bird flu”), as reported by Texas and confirmed by CDC. *contact w/ sick cows reported

DJ, H5N1 may have killed hundreds of millions of birds all over the planet...most of those birds got eaten by mammals...so H5N1 got widespread in mammals via infected birds...

Why do we only "wake up" when humans test positive for H5N1 ? 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1#Human_infections[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1#Human_infections 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932024_H5N1_outbreak[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932024_H5N1_outbreak 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1#Transmission_and_host_range[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1#Transmission_and_host_range 889 human cases-still missing the 2 UK april-cases...

What to do ? 

-Stay informed !

-Masks + eye protection (at least in higher risk area/farm)

-Most of the spread may be without (severe) symptoms..."it could look like hayfever"....

-Take risks serious !!!!

[url]https://www.science.org/content/article/us-dairy-farm-worker-infected-as-bird-flu-spreads-to-cows-in-five-states[/url] or https://www.science.org/content/article/us-dairy-farm-worker-infected-as-bird-flu-spreads-to-cows-in-five-states ;

The case is the latest surprise in the global march of the flu strain, a subtype of H5N1 known as clade 2.3.4.4b that has devastated wild birds and poultry around the world for more than two years. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) says it has confirmed that the virus has infected cattle at farms in Texas, Kansas, New Mexico, and Michigan, while Idaho has a “presumptive” outbreak at one dairy farm. Wild birds, which have been found dead on some farms, most likely contaminated cow feed or water.

Some evidence suggests the virus was transmitted between cows, but that remains unproven. And for now, USDA says its “initial testing has not found changes to the virus that would make it more transmissible to humans.”   Still, the widespread occurrence of H5N1 in mammals has renewed worries that it may evolve to become more transmissible between people.  And scientists are urgently trying to answer a host of questions, including how far the virus has spread among U.S. cows and how to prevent more herds and people from becoming infected.

Although cows routinely contract influenza viruses, this is the first time that a “highly pathogenic” bird flu strain has been found in them. USDA says about 10% of affected herds have become ill. Sick cows have a mild illness, and produce less milk, which is thicker than usual, resembling colostrum, the first milk produced after a calf is born.

-

Antibody tests of herds should soon reveal how widespread the infection is and how long it has been infecting cattle. Lab experiments may clarify how a virus that typically causes respiratory disease wound up in cow udders, making it detectable in their milk, and whether other organs are infected.  No evidence exists that the virus has infected beef cattle, but researchers say that could simply be because of a lack of surveillance, or because these animals show subtler symptoms than changes in milk production and its appearance.

-

Although avian influenza viruses, first detected in humans in 1997, have caused outbreaks that killed hundreds of people, they have difficulty infecting human cells due to differences in the sugars that adorn human and bird cellular receptors for the virus. But humans have the bird version in our eyes, which explains why we can develop conjunctivitis.

“I think the conjunctivitis in itself is not so serious, but it points to the fact that those people have been exposed and that they might develop respiratory disease,” says Thijs Kuiken, a comparative pathologist at Erasmus Medical Center who specializes in avian influenza. “I am really concerned about the people who are looking after affected cattle because I've heard of really high levels of virus in the milk and people are milking these animals twice a day.”

The appearance of H5N1, clade 2.3.4.4b in cows was unexpected, even after its detection in dozens of mammalian species, including cats, dogs, foxes, tigers, leopards, coyotes, bears, seals, dolphins—and last month, goats at a Minnesota farm that also had an infected poultry flock. Cattle are often infected with type D, which one study shows can readily infect farm workers and cause disease, but H5N1 is a type A virus. “Its definitely taken me by surprise, but perhaps it shouldn’t have,” says virologist Richard Webby of St. Jude Childrens Research Hospital.

Idaho officials contend transmission of the virus between cattle occurred on a dairy farm there. That herd became sick after coming into contact with cows trucked in from an area in Texas where the virus was circulating. That “does lead state officials to believe cow-to-cow is how the virus was transmitted in this case,” a spokesperson for the Idaho State Department of Agriculture told Science. In Michigan, too, the virus surfaced after the importation of cows from Texas.

-

There are no H5N1 vaccines for cattle. Poultry vaccines do exist and are used heavily in China, with some marked successes. A crash program to develop a cattle equivalent might make sense, says Carol Cardona, an avian influenza specialist and poultry veterinarian at the University of Minnesota. If vaccinations can reduce viral spread, they might offer some secondary protection to dairy workers. “The person-to-cow ratio is so much higher than the person-to-chicken ratio,” notes Cardona, putting many more workers at risk. The cattle infections are “a game changer,” she adds. “I think it's all hands on deck.”

David Swayne, who formerly ran the USDAs avian influenza research lab, says it would be possible to quickly make a new cattle vaccine by modifying one now used in swine. And unlike with the bird vaccines, which are banned in the U.S. due in part to international trade concerns, swine vaccination is already “widely accepted,” Swayne says.

The U.S. government stockpiles an H5N1 vaccine for humans, and CDC said in a statement today that vaccines developed for related viruses “are available for vaccine manufacturing” if preliminary studies show they protect against 2.3.4.3b. “As a protective measure you can imagine vaccinating dairy workers,” Kuiken says.

The human infection in Texas has echoes of a massive outbreak of another highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, H7N7, in poultry flocks in the Netherlands in 2003 that Kuiken studied. Hundreds of people developed conjunctivitis, mainly during culling of infected flocks, and there was some evidence of human-to-human transmission. One veterinarian died.

Kuiken advises the U.S. to restrict the movement of cattle to limit the spread of the virus. “I would take the precautionary principle and say, ‘OK, until we know what's going on, let's put a standstill on this,’” he says.

But that is a controversial idea because the dairy industry relies on trucking cows south over the winters and then returning them north. And Armstrong doubts halting cattle transports would have much impact if migratory birds prove to be the main route of transmission. Many bird species are currently moving north and may be taking the virus with them. “It would be very surprising if it wasn't already everywhere,” Armstrong says, noting how difficult it is for farms to keep out birds. “We have to protect people, but we also have to … make sure were not crippling the industry,” he says.

As to H5N1s future, Cardona says we should continue to expect the unexpected. “The virus is making up new dances,” she says. “Its broken the rules on everything.”

DJ, Texas cows did spread H5N1 -very likely- further into other US states (so not the wild birds but transport of cows-infecting other cows...???) 

AVOIDING ANOTHER PANDEMIC SHOULD BE #1 !!!!!! Not -again- "saving economy"....




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 03 2024 at 12:42am
Texas: Now CATS test positive for H5N1 avian flu "A press officer from the TDSHS confirmed in an e-mail that sick cats tested positive for the virus." #H5N1 #HPAI CIDRAP https://cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/tests-confirm-avian-flu-new-mexico-dairy-farm-probe-finds-cat-positives

DJ, Did farm-cats start spreading H5N1 to cows ??? Cats eat dead birds-they may catch H5N1 that way...cat urine/poop may end up in a farm-reach cows that way ? 

Another suggestion infected wild bird-droppings in water infecting cows ? 

DJ-As far as I did read/follow the news;

-Cow-to-cow spread idea based on Texas cows imported and start of H5N1 infections in other US states in cows/cattle...

-Texas seems to be the H5N1-cow-hotspot...but there may be much less testing in other places....

-H5N1 spread in mammals -after contact with infected birds- has been going on for over 2 years...

-So H5N1 an "increasing risk" for humans is not new....








H5N1 Update | Avian Flu Clade 2.3.4.4b Looked at the newly uploaded Human Sequence (ID: 19027114) from Texas - PB2 contains 👀E627K 👀  in addition to the mutations found in the dairy cattle and wild bird sequences uploaded earlier (used #Fluserver for mutational analysis)

[url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1775312873868132464/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1775312873868132464/photo/1 

DJ, is a E627K mutation increasing risks for spread of H5N1 in mammals (including humans)????








Here in our new paper, we consider the causes of and solutions to multiple converging and interwoven crises on Earth, including climate change, ecological destruction, disease, pollution, and socio-economic inequality. https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae106

link [url]https://twitter.com/WilliamJRipple/status/1775226048910962835/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/WilliamJRipple/status/1775226048910962835/photo/1 Pandemic risks are related to a background-NEVER !!!!- isolated events....

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 03 2024 at 12:50am

part 2;

[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/04/usda-confirms-infection-in-idaho-dairy.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/04/usda-confirms-infection-in-idaho-dairy.html ; Although we've known since last week that preliminary tests had indicated HPAI in an Idaho Dairy herd, this afternoon the USDA has confirmed those test results, making Idaho the 5th state with confirmed HPAI in cattle. 

DJ, Very likely more testing will result in detecting more cases...So if one wants to deny a problem stop testing...it will make most problems a lot worse...But it -for now"- may "save the economy"....

[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/04/cdc-summary-analyses-of-genetic.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2024/04/cdc-summary-analyses-of-genetic.html ;

The CDC this evening has released their analysis of the HPAI H5N1 virus sampled from the human case in Texas, and reports that it is largely similar to HPAI viruses collected from dairy cattle in Texas. 

They do, however, report finding one well known `mammalian' mutation in the human sample; PB2-E627K. 

DJ, so the virus in the Texas farm worker catching H5N1 -most likely- from the cows had the E627K mutation the cows did NOT show...

Avian influenza in birds is predominantly a gastrointestinal malady, and is spread mostly via infected droppings. Birds run `hotter’ than mammals, which means avian flu viruses must adapt to lower temperatures found in the respiratory tract if they are to succeed in human or mammalian hosts.


PB2-E627K
describes the swapping out of Glutamic acid (E) for Lysine (K) at position 627 in the PB2 protein, which allows the virus to replicate at lower temperatures found in the human respiratory tract.
Additional adaptations are needed to make an avian virus a genuine pandemic threat (some we know about, while others we may not), but PB2-E627K is an important one often look for.

DJ, In SouthEast Asia Cambodia and Vietnam had several human H5N1 infections...was it the same one as in this US, the two UK cases from april 1 ? 

Despite previous identification of PB2 E627K in human cases of HPAI A(H5N1) virus, there is no evidence of onward transmission among humans after infection with viruses containing this mutation.

 It is important to note that this substitution has not been seen in available PB2 genes from viruses circulating in wild birds and poultry or in the recently described cattle viruses detected in Texas, suggesting the mutation may have been acquired in the patient during the development of conjunctivitis.

 Viruses can undergo changes in a host as they replicate after infection, and it is not uncommon or surprising for HPAI A(H5N1) viruses to undergo this and other polymerase gene changes in infected patients (9). 

Additional data from A(H5N1) virus-infected animals from the premises where the person was likely exposed is needed to support this hypothesis.

DJ so the H5N1 virus changed in the human host to better "spread" in the host...

Collectively, epidemiologic, and viral genomic analyses indicate that this case represents a single zoonotic event and while the HA lacked changes likely to enhance transmission to mammals, it did acquire substitutions in PB2 likely to enhance replication in mammals, which illustrates that we have to remain vigilant and continue to characterize zoonotic viruses.

So...pandemic risk (based on CDC-US data) remains low...More info on other H5N1 mammal infections may -however- need to review that idea...

end of part 2,


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 03 2024 at 1:15am

part 3, 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/who-oms/988128-who-avian-influenza-a-h5n1-viet-nam-2-april-2024[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/who-oms/988128-who-avian-influenza-a-h5n1-viet-nam-2-april-2024 ;

WHO - Avian Influenza A(H5N1) - Viet Nam. 2 April 2024


2 April 2024

Situation at a Glance

The World Health Organization (WHO) was notified about a case of human infection with an influenza A(H5N1) virus on 25 March 2024 by the national authorities of Viet Nam. The patient, who had no underlying medical conditions, developed symptoms on 11 March and died on 23 March. Exposure to birds was ascertained to have taken place in the third week of February. Samples collected from close contacts tested negative for influenza A(H5N1) virus. This is the first human infection with an avian influenza A (H5N1) virus reported in Viet Nam since 2022. According to the International Health Regulations (IHR) 2005, a human infection caused by a novel influenza A virus subtype is an event that has the potential for high public health impact and must be notified to the WHO. Based on available information, WHO assesses the risk to the general population posed by this virus as low.

Description of the Situation

On 25 March 2024, Viet Nam National Focal Point (NFP) for International Health Regulations (IHR) notified the World Health Organization (WHO) of one case of human infection with an influenza A(H5N1) virus in a 21-year-old male with no underlying conditions from Khanh Hoa Province, Viet Nam.

The case developed a fever and cough on 11 March 2024 and was admitted on 15 March to a local hospital due to persistent symptoms, including abdominal pain and diarrhoea. On 17 March, his condition worsened, and he was transferred to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of a provincial hospital. On 20 March, the patient was transferred to another provincial hospital with a diagnosis of severe pneumonia, severe sepsis, and acute respiratory distress syndrome. The case died on 23 March.

On 19 March, samples were taken for real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing by the Pasteur Institut in Nha Trang, which resulted in a positive result for the influenza (H5) virus. On 22 March, genomic sequencing conducted by the Pasteur Institut of Nha Trang revealed the presence of the avian influenza A (H5N1) virus.

Initial results from the case investigation revealed that during the second and third weeks of February 2024, the case went bird hunting. Between that time and the onset of illness, no contact with dead or sick poultry nor contact with anyone exhibiting similar symptoms was reported. Among close contacts traced, no further cases of influenza A(H5N1) were detected.

DJ, there may be more info on the clade/mutations...








Cats in Texas have died of H5N1 bird flu, according to state officials. 3 cases have been confirmed. The cats were tested in connection with bird flu outbreaks at dairy farms.

DJ...the cows only had limited symptoms...but H5N1 -maybe higher viral load/smaller animal-host- killed cats (???)

[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2024/04/articles/animals/cats/avian-flu-in-a-cat-on-a-dairy-farm-completely-unsurprising/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2024/04/articles/animals/cats/avian-flu-in-a-cat-on-a-dairy-farm-completely-unsurprising/ ;

As part of the farm investigation, some (number not reported) sick (type of illness not reported) cats were tested, and three were positive. There’s no way to know for sure, but I’d guess that the cats were infected by the same source as the cows (i.e. from infected wild birds), not from the sick cows themselves.

DJ...or did the cats catch H5N1 before the cows did ? Did they show symptoms before the cows had any symptoms ? 

It’s totally unsurprising, since there are various reports of cats from several countries around the world being infected with this virus, which continues to circulate widely in the wild bird population. 

Cats hunt birds, and birds that are sick with avian flu are a lot easier to catch. Eating a sick bird is a clear what to get infected, so it’s not surprising at all to find infected cats in areas where there’s lots of flu activity. 

 I’d guess there have been hundreds of infections of cats worldwide, but most of them have gone unrecognized.

DJ, very likely a much higher number of (wild) animals eating H5N1-infected birds may have been infected with H5N1. Very likely most of them may have had no or only mild symptoms. Dead mammals in areas with a high level of H5N1 in birds have been reported in many places...hardly any of them may have been tested...

Wild pigs may be of even higher risks for H5N1 infection than cats, rats or mice...

This isn’t a game changer, but it’s yet another reminder to pay attention. Fortunately, cats (like cows) don’t have their own influenza A virus, and they tend not to be very susceptible to human flu strains. So, there’s less risk of them being infected with the H5N1 virus and another flu virus at the same time, and acting as a mixing vessel for creation of a new, more problematic recombinant flu strain. However, every spillover into any mammal poses some extra risk, and cats are potential bridges between wildlife and people, since people often have close contact with cats. That’s why we’re on the lookout for these spillover infections, and ideally want to limit exposure of cats to infected wild birds.

If you have cats that go outside and you can’t prevent that (not all cats can be indoor only), be on the lookout for flu. If an outdoor cat gets sick, especially with respiratory or neurological disease, and it’s had potential contact with flu-infected birds, it’s important to talk to your veterinarian (and ideally get the cat tested so we can gather more information on the virus’ behaviour, and also try to contain the infection).

DJ...a very MAIN DRIVER is A-SYMPTOMATIC SPREAD !!!!!!!!!!

Very likely most pandemics do become pandemics because not every host shows (much) symptoms !!!!

In the US only cows with symptoms get tested...country/state fairs continue...Do we want a H5N1 pandemic ? 

A lot of animal-science is agri-culture science...NOT looking at PUBLIC health risks but on farm-economy...We have to change that perspective...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 03 2024 at 1:34pm

This mutation is the first of many as far as I am concerned.  The speed at which it went from cow to cat to human is a little crazy. Now a 2nd person has it.  I just dont think this is good.  my son just got sick from his roommate, they both had pink eye and flu.  He is in Arizona and hasn't had pink eye in like 10 years.  This all has be so edgy!  I hope and pray with all my heart that it stays mild and is no worse than a normal flu!

NOW is the Season to Know

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 03 2024 at 10:44pm

Have a look at this YouTube video from the 12 minute mark. It's the Canadian Prepper and his view on the H5N1 situation and where he thinks it will lead us. It's very interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PAG-dKRfzAg

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2024 at 12:13am

KiwiMum, interesting-good-video..."under reaction to over reaction"...CFR may be even less than 5% -at the start...Governments will use a H5N1 pandemic -they failed to stop- to increase further "population control"...Also further going after "spreading false info"....

If people this time of year get eye problems, runny nose etc. it may be "just" hayfever....

However....H5N1 by now must be widespread in (wild) mammals...testing capacity may be very limited. So they now only test symptomatic cows, cats etc because of limits to testing capacity...

Key mutations among the #AvianInfluenza sequences isolated from #Cats uploaded to #EpiFlu  from #Poland | Analysis using #FluServer tool. Interesting #PB2 mutations: #E627K and #K526R  https://cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/polish-officials-probe-h5n1-avian-flu-link-cat-deaths

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Key Papers on the highlighted mutations: The K526R substitution in viral protein PB2 enhances the effects of E627K on influenza virus replication

DJ, the july 1 -2023 tweet makes clear what role the K562R mutation plays in combination with E627K...increasing -in this case- H5N1 virus spreading in the (mammal) host...Humans are mammals...

Somehow there may still be the idea "humans" are not linked to other animals...But "one health" what happens in humans may spread to other mammals (like CoViD) or the other way round; H5N1 jumping from birds to mammals and it may end up in humans...

There are a lot of links I could include-but to keep this story to "the point" I will keep it limited...only if they provide new info...Ohio the 6th US state with H5N1 in cows is not "surprising"...Texas the "motor" behind H5N1 spreading in cows, cats also not surprising...

We may see H5N1 in (farm) dogs...but it may stay limited there...for now. 

DJ-My view; H5N1 is moving us towards a flu-pandemic but it may NOT be a H5N1-flu...

Like H1N1 in 1917/18 "Spanish Flu" it is how we deal with it that may matter most..."under reaction" a very major problem ! 

If a flu infects half of all humans -it would be in 4 billion people...If it killed 1% of them it would kill 40 million...

Lots of other diseases around-very likely new diseases may increase as well...It may be the combination that is "very bad news"...At the end it may not matter what disease killed your family member, friend, partner...he/she is gone...very likely by a disease that should have been controlled...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2024 at 9:23am
⚠️WAIT HOLD UP—Pasteurization of milk actually may **not** neutralize all viruses sufficiently to stop infectivity—“many viruses cannot”. 
 It seems that fat globules in whole milk and 2% fat milk can protect viruses from high temperature pasteurization (dairy research shows for foot and mouth disease virus)—and show residual infectivity of the virus after pasteurization. 

➡️My trusted colleague points out that the USDA & CDC has presented **zero evidence** avian flu cannot survive pasteurization in whole/2% fat milk🥛.
 He warns that until such evidence is shown, we need to be careful of USDA/CDC’s claims that virus in milk can “reliably” be neutralized via current pasteurization temperatures.

-

2) Contrast that above study with this USDA statement that “pasteurization would kill the virus” — but without any caveats or proven evidence. ➡️folks need to keep in mind that the U.S. Dept of Agriculture is actually the **COMMERCE AGENCY FOR AGRICULTURE**—it’s mission is to protect and help agriculture industry. Public health is a side priority.

-

3) If we look at the study 📖 above, it seems that the pasteurization neutralized the virus in majority of the samples. But in 7 of the experiments… injection of the pasteurized milk sample into a naive uninfected steer ==> showed the cattle getting still infected from the pasteurized milk injection❗️ https://journalofdairyscience.org/article/S0022-0302(07)71769-1/fulltext

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4) In the U.S., pasteurization standard is 161 degrees F (or 71.7 Celsius) for a holding time of at least 15 seconds. ➡️Yet if we look at the temperatures and holding times in the study, we see the 7 samples that showed infectivity of pasteurized milk all above 72 C and 18 seconds… ➡️ even pasteurized milk infectivity at 82.5 C and 36 seconds! ❗️

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5) There is another type of pasteurization called ULTRA-PASTEURIZATION, which requires heating to 280 degrees F (137.8 C) for 2 seconds. This is likely safest. ➡️Try to find **ultra-pasteurized milk if possible**.

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6) Caveats: the study in infectivity of pasteurized milk is for foot and mouth disease virus, not avian flu. The infectivity is for injection of the milk into a naive uninfected steer, not ingestion of the milk orally. We need true data on avian flu virus titer in pasteurized milk from USDA and CDC to know for sure.

- - 

8) Side datapoint on cats— cats 🐈‍⬛ have died of avian flu already. It seems that cats maybe getting the flu virus from somewhere like in their water (or eating dead birds) are "ingesting" and thus maybe how they got infected. A lot of variables that are very easily tested experimentally.  Best thing to do is experiment and discuss, vs just blanket assume safety.

-DJ- Maybe small cats get more ill from a same viralload compared to big cows...Would a small child see more severe disease with a same viral load that gets a 100 kilo male down ? Of course !

9) speaking of ingesting the virus, public health officials have already warned about avian flu from raw and undercooked eggs. So ingesting the virus is a thing. And by *cooked* eggs 🥚— we mean no “runny” eggs with undercooked egg yolk! Fully cooked eggs 🍳 only folks.

DJ, may also include products with un(der)cooked eggs...

10) Eye infection of avian flu is a thing as well. Scientists have directly warned about conjunctivitis in humans from avian flu because our eyes have the same type of sugar-complexes as birds that allows the avian flu to infect.

Eye-protection ! May also help a bit against hayfever...summer on its way...

12"There is massive (unprecedented) exposure of wild carnivores (feasting on sick/dead birds) and potentially also other mammals (through contaminated water and surface areas, including grasslands),” Ron Fouchier, an influenza virologist at Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam. “The infected mammals get infected upon feeding/drinking, which is an alternative route of infection of mammals.” ➡️we seriously need USDA & CDC to do a study of virus titer level needed for ingestion infection https://statnews.com/2024/04/03/h5n1-bird-flu-in-cows-risk-to-humans/

DJ-old news-number of infected mammals/spread in mammals big question..

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2024 at 11:22pm

DJ, H5N1 will be used as distraction for the latest NATO criminal disasters in UKraine and USrael...Some western crazy leaders may accuse Putin of infecting US cows with H5N1, blame China for another "lab-leak"...not based on any evidence...but it may distract from total western politics failure...

H5N1 is affecting egg-production. Some mega-farms did see H5N1 in their chickens...

A welcome outcome of -yet another- pandemic may be rethinking meat consumption...do we need milk, eggs that much ? 

Farm animals ARE a pandemic risk! Alternatives for meat (etc) are getting better...

[url]https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/livestock[/url] or https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/livestock on H5N1 spread in US cows/cattle...








The current #H5N1 detection in cattle is a good moment to think about food safety and security, and the risk posed by emerging animal and human viral diseases. The way we currently farm & interact with livestock is not sustainable and not safe. And not ethical.

DJ, transporting animals for days, treating them as "things" is just as bad as "wars for profits"...







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Biden: ‘Israel Has An Obligation Not To Harm My Reelection Chances’

We need better leaders !...it should not be that hard to find more intelligent ones...But a "powerblock" is using the present crazy leaders to fill up their pockets !