HAS TO BE H2H!

Indonesian boy dies of bird flu, local test finds (English)
JAKARTA - A three-year-old boy from Indonesia's Central Java province has died of bird flu, a senior health official said on Saturday, citing the results of a local test. | If confirmed by a U.N.-recognised laboratory, the boy would be the country's ...

The URL above doesn't work.
I did a little search and came up with the original article. (Thank you, fluprepper.)
THIS IS IMPORTANT!

Scientists have said a woman who died of bird flu probably contracted the disease from her daughter.

The researchers from the Thai Ministry of Public Health warn it is likely there will be more cases where the virus is passed from human to human.

Professor John Oxford, a leading UK expert, said the virus had broken down the "final door" which prevented it being spread between people.

The study is published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

This is a very important step towards the conclusion that we all wanted to avoid Professor John Oxford, Queen Mary's School of Medicine

In 2004, avian flu infected at least 44 people in eight south Asian countries, killing 32.

Until the late 1990s, it had not been thought that the virus strain - H5N1 - could spread to humans.

Once it did, scientists began to fear it could then be spread between people.

In a "worst-case scenario", they suggested the virus could combine with a human flu virus if people were simultaneously infected with both.

If the viruses then exchanged genes, a new, highly infective virus could be created and be passed from person to person.

It is not thought that this happened in the Thai case, but experts say the fact that the evidence strongly suggests human-to-human transmission of the basic virus is worrying.

Fever

The case began with an 11-year-old girl who lived with her aunt and went to the doctors with a fever, cough and sore throat in September last year.

Chickens in the household had all died from avian flu in the preceding weeks. The girl slept and played in the area under the elevated house where the chickens were also present.

The girl's mother lived in Bangkok, but went to visit her daughter when she heard she was sick, and cared for her in hospital for two days before the child died.

Three days later, she too began to experience fever and severe shortness of breath. About a week later, she also died.

The child's aunt, who also nursed her, showed symptoms of the virus, and was hospitalised. However, she survived her illness.

The research team interviewed surviving members of the family and carried out laboratory tests on the aunt and the body of the mother to test for the presence of the virus.

The child's body had been cremated so could not be tested.

'Shiver down the spine'

Writing in NEJM, the team, led by Dr Kumnuan Ungchusak, said: "We believe that the most likely explanation for the family clustering of these three cases of avian influenza is that the virus was transmitted directly from the infected patient to her mother and to her aunt.

"Person-to-person spread of avian influenza A (H5N1) strains has been the focus of intense concern.

"If H5N1 remains endemic for months to years in the eight countries that contain more than 30% of the world's population, it is likely that such clusters will appear again."

However, they add, "it is reassuring that no further transmission of the virus has been detected" after the Thai case.

The researchers said human-to-human transmission of avian flu had probably occurred before, but that this case was unique because secondary infection - of the mother - had resulted in her death.

Professor John Oxford, a virologist at Queen Mary's School of Medicine in London, said: "This is a very important step towards the conclusion that we all wanted to avoid - the spread of this virus from human to human.

"It sends a cold shiver down the spine.

He added: "In this case, it didn't spread, but I think we have to be careful not to be over-optimistic."

Isn't the above article from January 28, 2005?

Yeah small family h2h clusters arent new, what is new is more experts confirming that this has happened in the past.

I disagree with Prof John Oxford when he says the final door has been knocked down. Not quite, the final door is widespread and easy h2h transmission ,leading to pandemic. This is more like the door before the final door, or even the door before that.

This news shouldnt mean that much to those who have believed in family h2h cases for a year or 2 now, it confirms what we already knew. So why should we panic more as a result of this news as its not really news to us?

Has anyone seen this?  http://www.juiceenewsdaily.com/index.php/2006/01/23/mutated- bird-flu-found-in-turkey/

 

I can't find anything else on it as of yet. 

I think we are still in the waiting room. We wont know till it's too late.

Here is the article amyjo linked to above. I'll go find the article about them rushing teams to Indonesia to do something about all the outbreaks.....

Mutated Bird Flu found in Turkey

by Landon Howell

Looked everywhere I can't find it. thought it was on news now on the right hand coloum between 330am-530am today. Maybe rick knows something. I've looked everywhere.

Maybe this will clean up the above post a little. This is close to the one I read, this am but it had a helth official or someone in the government saying they didn't know what elso to do. Maybe they are sppeding up this articles implimentation. The article use the word "intervene" and it was in Java , East Java or that general area. Who knows now at this point I'm confused and getting burnt out scanning the headlines searching for the article. Will Tell ya one thing.... If you scan over the headlines for the past 4 days pretty fast you see alot of death, suspected cases and spread. That stands out. Tons of it the past few days.....

UPDATED: 10:21, March 04, 2006

Multilateral pilot project on bird flu control to start in Indonesia

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SINGAPORE, March 3 (Xinhua) -- A multilateral pilot project aiming to control avian influenza in Indonesia will begin with the preparation phase immediately, according to a statement issued by Singapore's Ministry of Health Friday. The project involves Singapore, the United States, Indonesia, as well as the World Bank, the World Health Organization (WHO), the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE). Officials from participating parties met in Singapore Friday to discuss the details of the project, including the scope, project site, time frame and activities, roles and responsibilities of the partners, as well as the project budget. Estimated to cost about 4.5 million U.S. dollars, the three- year project will be carried out in Tangerang Municipality of Indonesia's Banten Province, which covers an area of 200 square kilometers and has a population of 1.5 million. It aims to implement Indonesia's national plan for the control of bird flu to reduce the prevalence of H5N1 bird flu there and test out how recommended approaches work on-the-ground. Experiences and lessons learnt are expected to be applied to other areas in Indonesia. "Indonesia will lead the project in its management, providing on-site manpower, financial, and infrastructure support. The other partners may be involved in providing financial assistance and technical expertise," the statement said. The project was proposed by Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, U.S. President George W. Bush and Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' Meeting in South Korea's Busan last November. Source: Xinhua

I think WHO are puting a lot into Indonesia because they think it's the site
of least resistance to the mystic mist we know as Bird Fu. I agree with them.
If you sleep with a chicken expect strange mutations to appear.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2006%5C03%5C04 %5Cstory_4-3-2006_pg7_48

Albert wrote: No news out of Indo in over two days.  We could be losing valuable time.  We need an update on the new number of suspected cases.  We need to know if it's spreading, and at what rate.

Friday into Saturday = Moslem Sabbath.

News always dies on those days and then the western media goes to sleep on Sunday, so news will come out on Monday.

Thanks, Dr. Niman, for your forthrightness. But I feel like I've been hit by a
truck.

 When you also check out what Recombinomics has to say about it. And check out the links that it provides. It gives what shounds like credible facts about the background of its research, and anyone can see where this is headed.

 I have to say that I for one am now past concerned. I give us maybe one more month before we hear it officially from the WHO that there is human to human transmission.

 It will take that long before they can get that info through all of the bureaucracy.
 

niman wrote: Most human cases are H2H   http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02040603/H5N1_H2H_Most.htm l

Dr. Niman

When do you predict it will become pandemic?

loopylou wrote: I know that this question is probably like asking how long is a piece of string but in your opinion how long before BF goes H2H and starts a pandemic? A lot of you seem to have been watching its progress for a long time and are much more knowledgeable then myself.

John Oxford, professor of virology at Barts hospital,
London, said the likelihood of a human avian flu pandemic is "high and
within a span of, say, 18 months".



http://www.guardian.co.uk/birdflu/story/0,,1713623,00.html



http://
www.24dash.com/content/news/viewNews.php?

His most recent comments about Niger suggest the time line he gave
might need to be shortened. He helped create Tamiflu.

Rick - You should make that Guardian article, speaking of the 18 month timeline prediction of a human pandemic, a stand alone thread.

It's that compelling.

fileid=20060306.C01&irec=1">http://www.thejakartapost.com/
detailnational.asp?fileid=20060306.C01&irec=1

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=1692403&CMP=OTC-
RSSFeeds0312

The WHO appear to be in the best position to make this
judgement, since they have all the necessary genetic information in their
private database, upon which to draw this conclusion. March 6/06

Everyone should know that no government will ever figure this out until the virus mutates to humans and then in one year to 18 months,the governments may be able to help. Johnray

Always good for insomnia: Russian to English trans. and put on the web
as is.

Expert: one third of Earth population will suffer from bird flu pandemic
Read it in Russian

No quarantine measures can stop bird flu pandemic, if it appears, stated
in March 7 head of virology research institute of Russian Medical
Academy of Sciences Dmitry Lvov, informs a REGNUM correspondent.
According to the expert, one third of Earth population will suffer from
bird flu pandemic. He thinks that in Russia, bird flu pandemic can come
from China. He reminded that nearly all Russian regions, except for
Eastern Siberia and Far East are infected with bird flu in a greater or lesser
extent.

The expert asked Russian authorities to be ready in short amount of time
to create hundred thousands of quarantine places.

They seem to be reporting a death or two everyday.

JAKARTA: A pregnant woman with symptoms of bird flu died in the Indonesian capital Jakarta, while a boy who died elsewhere over the weekend was also suspected of carrying the virus, officials said. Yani Mulyani, 25, who was five months pregnant, died along with her fetus while she was being treated at Sulianti Saroso, the main hospital treating bird flu patients in the capital.

http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=111081