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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

HAS TO BE H2H!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2006 at 7:13am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2006 at 2:14pm

Originally posted by Rick Rick wrote:

 

China's latest bird flu death adds to worries for HK

The 32-year-old man fell ill after visiting a live poultry market several times to conduct research in southern Guangdong province, which borders Hong Kong. He died last Thursday, the ninth person to die of bird flu in China.

"He is an urban resident, he had no contact with farms or any poultry from the villages. His only exposure is the wet markets, which has poultry which are supposedly safe for consumption and safe for the public," Hong Kong's health minister York Chow said.

This is the kind of stuff that scares me to death.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2006 at 4:18pm

Cats with bird flu may mean human danger

March 8, 2006 - 5:39AM

Reports that a cat contracted bird flu could mean the virus is adapting to
mammals and poses a potentially higher risk to humans, a World Health
Organisation (WHO) official says.

Michael Perdue, a scientist with the WHO's global influenza program, said
more studies were needed on infections in cats, including how they shed
the virus.

But Perdue said there was no evidence cats were hidden carriers of the
virus, which can wipe out poultry flocks in the space of 48 hours and
infect people.

Austria said that a cat in an animal sanctuary in the southern city of Graz
had tested positive for the H5N1 bird flu virus but had yet to show any
symptoms of the disease.

However, the virus could take up to a week to strike and it was possible
the cat in Austria could still develop clinical signs, Perdue said.

"We have to follow-up with laboratory studies to see if
it (the virus) changed genetically and is not causing clinical signs," Perdue
said.

"If it is true, it would imply the virus has changed significantly," he said.


The virus has killed 95 people in East Asia and the Middle East since late
2003.

Most of the victims contracted the disease directly from sick poultry, but
experts fear the virus could mutate and spread easily among people,
sparking a pandemic which could kill millions.

Animals carrying H5N1 without showing any
signs of ill health could make it harder to detect and contain bird flu.

The longer the virus remains dormant in a mammal, without it getting
sick or dying, the greater the risk of it also mutating into a more
dangerous form.

"The longer it stays in mammals one would assume it is more likely to be
adapted to mammals, as opposed to staying in birds.

"If the virus obtains all the mutations needed to transmit easily between
mammals it could imply higher risk to humans," Perdue said.


http://www.theage.com.au/news/World/Cats-with-bird-flu-may-m
ean-
human-danger/2006/03/08/1141701533026.html
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gricha56 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote gricha56 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2006 at 7:07pm
Hello.  I've just joined your group this evening, and I'm impressed by the level of awareness by your members of this threat.  But  I'm also concerned about  the level of distrust exhibited regarding the efforts of the World Health Organization and by suggestions to Nuke a country because some of their citizens have become victims of this disease.  The World Health Organization is an organ of the United Nations.  It is staffed by some of the best physicians and scientists in the World.  They have been engaged in active confrontation with this virus for over ten years now.  They are working with a strict case definition, which accounts for their figures not corresponding with reports you may have read about in the papers.  But that is good science.  In the end, we will all be better off for their methodical approach to the problem.  I'll be frank. I'm not confident that they will be able to contain an outbreak.  The spectre of an illness that has a case fatality rate of over 60 per cent SCARES me.  But there are many things we can do to effect a good outcome.  Put your Nukes away.  Roll up your sleeves.  It is time to get ready for this bad oscar.    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fafhrd Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2006 at 7:28pm
gricha, I'm fairly certain the nukes were a joke.  Gallows humor if you will.  However, the distrust of the WHO is warranted.  They're playing politics with human lives.  I don't care if they have a cruel master.  If they get the pandemic alert to 4, I'll reconsider.  Until then, they're a bunch of hapless toadies in my book.  
I had a little bird,
his name was Enza;
I opened the window,
and influenza.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote araywood Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2006 at 8:44pm
I think it jumped and they know it. Theres  no information coming out of the most active area. VERY SUSPiCIOUS! No news on those 66 cases. If they were all right the  would say something but .......Nothing.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2006 at 10:40pm
You have become a cynic like me.

Congratulations!

Years ago that would have meant that you were not with the mainstream. Today, it means you are a free thinker.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fafhrd Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2006 at 10:54pm
<does the dance of the misanthrope>
I had a little bird,
his name was Enza;
I opened the window,
and influenza.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 08 2006 at 4:18am


If you examine the funding of the WHO and UN, you'll
understand the need to critically examine the information they release.
There are enormous sums of money involved. People die for far less each
day. Every country that has bird flu, has one one time denied having the
disease.

The fact that the WHO appears to be hoarding genetic information about
the virus and offers no explanation leaves makes me more than
suspicious. When an institution does not want to honestly respond to a
problem, their tradmark response, "there is no evidence". I wish I had a
nickel every time I read that frackin statement.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 08 2006 at 6:37am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tansau Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 08 2006 at 8:18am
Man Received in Hospital in Belgium with Symptoms of Bird Flu

8 March 2006 | 17:29 | FOCUS News Agency

Brussels. Authorities in Belgium announced that a man with symptoms of
bird flu was received in hospital in Brussels, Reuters reported. The man
returned from China recently.

Earlier on Wednesday it was announced that a nine-year-old girl from
Eastern China died from bird flu. This is the tenth case of a human death,
caused by the disease in the Asian country.

http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?
catid=135&newsid=84096&ch=0&datte=2006-03-08
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote endman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 08 2006 at 9:51am
Everybody thinks that WHO will come up and announce to the world that pandemic Has started, but everybody remembers the SARS epidemic and how it effected that region. So no big news or announcements just not from WHO anyway just rumors and cover-ups the only way to know is to follow the money trail or news blackouts.
They already have a cover story if the cluster is found WHO pints to the chickens but they will administrate Tamyflu to everybody in the area “JUST AS A precaution”
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote gricha56 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 09 2006 at 8:57am
When the expected antigenic shift occurs that makes this virus a human pathogen then you will not be considering outbreaks of sixty cases.  Hundreds of thousands will be affected.  Some of the press I am seeing now reminds me of the reports I use to read from my travels in Africa, where every outbreak of febrile illness was described as "Malaria".  "700 die from outbreak of Malaria in ___________ province."  the headline would read.  Sometimes the illness was malaria.  Frequently, it was measles.  Less often it was Ebola. Or Rift Valley Fever.  Or West Nile Fever.   My point is, press reports can be accurate and completely wrong at once and at the same time.  700 deaths from some illness is indicative of a problem and is true enough to provide pause for consideration.  Does it matter if it was measles or malaria?  It only does of you intend to intervene.  Because the action you would take to minimize the scope of the illness would be different, depending on the identity of the causative agent.  Spray for mosquitoes or begin a vaccination program ? You choice for effective action would depend on the identity of the causative agent.  Diagnosis is never made  by consulting a symptoms table.  Fever and respiratory symptoms are common to beaucoup illnesses.  Hell, while we are waiting for H5N1 to megasize, some other influenza virus just might sneak up on us.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 09 2006 at 9:11am

Welcome Gricha56, your post gave me a lot to think of.  It's sometimes hard to know what to think of these countries and the reporting. 

If you need anything please ask and someone can help.  Again nice to meet you

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Falcon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 09 2006 at 10:18am
Welcome Gricha56 and yes your post gave a lot of pointers, your last sentence holds a lot of truth. while we concentrate on one virus another one sneaks up suddenly
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