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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

How can we settle our differences on here?

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KiwiMum View Drop Down
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    Posted: December 04 2021 at 3:07pm

I think we can all agree on one thing, which is that this constant bickering and aggressive behaviour is getting us nowhere. Rational discussion has vanished. So I'm hoping that we can find a way to accept our differences and get back to being a discussion forum.

We seem to have split into two camps. One support group is 100% pro vaccine and the other is questioning the narrative of this.

Six months ago it was impossible to find anything in the mainstream media that questioned the idea of the vaccines being perfect. Every article was about how great they were and nothing was published that expressed a counter view. Now, however, the media has changed. Now it's starting to report on the adverse reactions to the vaccines because there are too many of them to ignore, and the protests are finally being covered. The narrative is changing. 

Six months ago no one would admit to the vaccines losing efficacy or to breakthrough infections, but now governments around the world are acknowledging this as a scientifc fact. No one would show video of protest marches for fear of encouraging more people to join in but now this is being covered on the nightly news.

The thing about democracy is that we have freedom of speech. 

The newspapers today are all showing articles that many people would probably like to see banned, that they would think are "anti-vaxx",  but these articles are not anti vaxx, they are simply reporting the news. This stuff is happening and as unpalatable as it may seem, we live in a democracy that allows, by it's very nature, for that to happen. 

What I'd like to propose is that each group on here tries to see the others' point of view. That we try not to make blanket inflammatory statements tarring it all with one brush. That we accept that the science is changing and the situation is evolving by the hour. Perhaps we could try discussion instead of bickering. 

If you have any good ideas, please contribute to this post.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2021 at 3:46pm

Kiwi, 

The problem is that as I have said before " the unvaccinated is the devil"  Anyone who argues that the vaccine is unsafe or that it causes more harm or that you don't need it, is essentially the devil.  We have been vaccinated X3 and other than a sore arm, it has been smooth sailing for us.   We are urging our fellow members to get vaccinated.  If you have read the latest study on Omicron, it clearly states that if you have been infected and have gotten ill, you will find that Omicron is reinfecting those who have been infected with other variants.   So, that is how we feel about those who are unvaccinated.  

Jill, Becky, ME163 and Vicki 



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All we need to do is move on from whether vaccine's are safe or not ,

We all know ,no medical procedure is safe ,

Governments are mandating vaccines ,I don't really agree with that,as I've said many times,

We need to concentrate on what's happening ,not what had happened,that's for history to say,we need to watch where what is happening to the mutations ,you KW was the 1st to alert us to omicron

Thats what we do best.....

Trying to out post each other to get a point over is pointless,

Can we please get over the vaccine thing, millions of people have taken it,time will tell ,

Time is what we don't have with this virus.......

Take care all πŸ˜·πŸ˜‰


Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (5) Thanks(5)   Quote AandEM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2021 at 6:52pm

I dont know. I am simply going to say that not vaccinating would be the best and safest option if you could live completely isolated.  On that, we all agree. But, if that lifestyle is not an option, the next safest choice is to vaccinate. I have 175 students coming through my classroom, unmasked everyday. I have students who have lost parents. I personally know of 11 deaths in my community alone..  I know of 0 cases of vaccination injuries or hospitalizations from breakthrough infections. Why are we even treating this as a "debate"? The evidence is clear on a large scale,  and through personal observations  i want to be able to come here and learn. This discussion gets us nowhere, is not based in clear and easily available data, and is a huge distraction from the amazing and necessary work many are doing to interpret the data as it arrives. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2021 at 11:38pm

Originally posted by AandEM AandEM wrote:

I dont know. I am simply going to say that not vaccinating would be the best and safest option if you could live completely isolated.  On that, we all agree. But, if that lifestyle is not an option, the next safest choice is to vaccinate. I have 175 students coming through my classroom, unmasked everyday. I have students who have lost parents. I personally know of 11 deaths in my community alone..  I know of 0 cases of vaccination injuries or hospitalizations from breakthrough infections. Why are we even treating this as a "debate"? The evidence is clear on a large scale,  and through personal observations  i want to be able to come here and learn. This discussion gets us nowhere, is not based in clear and easily available data, and is a huge distraction from the amazing and necessary work many are doing to interpret the data as it arrives. 

Thanks, this is brilliant!  

I am an expert in viral epidemiology and control of viral epidemics & pandemics with all different means of control, including self-isolation, quarantine, and vaccination.

The claims of "bad reactions" to the available COVID-19 vaccines are, for the most part, lies.  A relatively small number of Internet influencers (a dozen or so) are responsible for the vast majority of anti-vaccine garbage. 

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/13/996570855/disinformation-dozen-test-facebooks-twitters-ability-to-curb-vaccine-hoaxes

I dare anyone on this forum to raise their hands and say they are unhappy to have been vaccinated against polio. 

The mRNA vaccines in particular are the safest vaccines ever developed.  Instead of using portions of virus (living and attenuated, or killed, or viral particle antigens), the RNA genetic code to induce our own cells to generate pathogen antigens its nothing less than revolutionary.  This approach may lead to the control of many other diseases, including flu, AIDS and even some cancers. 

I support the right of people to refuse vaccination, but I also support the right of society to limit these people's freedoms.  Employers should be free to ban unvaccinated workers, and shame on public safety and healthcare workers who shun the vaccine.   I have nothing else to say on this. 


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KiwiMum I think you are here (and a number of times in the past) using a straw-man argument saying that everyone here is 100% pro-vaccination.   That.is.blatantly.no.true.    

While it is true that I am pro-vaccination,  I have never been the 100% you claim I and everyone else you disagree with is.   In the early stages I did post that I was glad I was not a health working needing to decide on taking the vaccine early on before some of the risks were seen.  However, by the time it was available to my age group I was happy with the balance of RISKS.   I have also posted on some of the negative reactions to the vaccine.     I do hope I have never implied that vaccinations are the "be all and end all" in fighting the effects of covid-19 (and the virus that causes it), yet you are using sweeping statements to put down people like me.  


You say you want discussion, but you haven't really acted like that.  On a post I made about data from Finland showing unvaccinated people being 33 time more likely to end up in ICU than vaccinated people, you did not try to discuss the data of the post and went on some anti-vacciation line complaining that vaccines are not 100% safe  [which is obvious from the 3% or '1' in a 33:1 ratio].   You would earn more respect if you were willing to debate the data rather than try to dis-rail the thread, in what appeared to me to be a troll like fashion.  I would not have minded if the debate in the thread went to how differing countries had a different ratio, and what that means.    I chose not to respond to your posts in the thread I started because you were not entering into a debate.  But then my purpose here is not to have endless 'debates', but to learn about risks and how to navigate them.


It is in this navigating the risks that I am mostly saddened by what seems to me to be you focusing on, and pushing, an anti-vaxx line, rather than focusing on how to LIVE in the current situation.  You have a lot to offer from your experiences in prepping for various situations and in that area I respect your posting.   [The economy has held up better than I expected but there are signs of strain - so the whole preparing line will, in my opinion, be as important as the function for giving early warnings for which this site has been very valuable].








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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Pandemic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 12:20am

I dont visit the site often but when i revisited after nearly two Years. i noticed the same familiar usernames. Surprisingly, the site didn't have more ' new blood ' as the information and contributions made are very important. I question if some people have been put off by the sense of squabbling and politically driven feelings that sometimes appear!!??. Like any forum, if respect for each other's opinions is undermined you're heading for problems. Vax or no vax, or any other pandemic issue,.You will never agree entirely but you can show respect and not get defensive. Ive sensed this is sometimes lacking in some of the posts, which is sad because there's some incredibly informative stuff on the site. PEACE❀



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 1:18am

If we had "all the answers" we should not be on this forum but in some hospital-working till we drop...So-for me- I have "all the questions" not that many answers....

Trying to find my way in this pandemic-labyrinth....

DJ

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 1:46am

I remember when all it started (for me at least), when DRph made it 100% clear that masks were useless and he knew the "science". He was actually demeaning in his response to people who wanted to use masks. I actually felt ashamed buying some after listening to his rambling about all his accomplishments, expert knowledge, and superior man training and education under the guise of the "best information available"....I work for the government, and know everything crap, and lets not forget the posts of badges, and certificates...

I berated some at work in the beginning of the pandemic for using those "useless" Masks, and then after some time, waiting to buy some myself and going  through considerable angst trying to find them when DRph changed his mind (note the science never changed)...Fauci anyone?

There is no language i can use to describe my anger after finding out he was flat wrong and a quack......and how my decision to listen and not stockpile masks could effect my, and my family s safety.......I took that personally.

Now they are mandatory for whole societies.

The point is (and we have discussed this many times) nothing is set in stone except death and taxes. As science learns more, approaches to beating this change. The problem comes when people stake out a cast on cement position on an issue and refuse to budge, even as new information comes out, this is how people split into 2 camps. One side does not trust the other....so who is drinking the Koolaid?

After getting thoroughly pissed off at Mr. PHD for making false statements (which affected my family and relationship with my wife) I decided to make my own decisions with the best information i could find..... 

The problem here is that one camp believes they have the monopoly on knowledge, and everyone else is wrong, there cannot be any room for dissent, differing opinion, some say "ohh well, we welcome your opinion, even tho its wrong".

This forum has been essentially turned into the "flat earth" debate with both sides claiming the others are the flat earthe'rs.



 


The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Hello all :-) 


I've been following this forum for years now (I posted many years ago from Northern Ireland but lost my log in details) and as soon as covid hit I thought this would be the best place to come. I was proud that I knew a place to get information and advice that others didn't! I thought these people have prepared for this, they know what they are doing and have been 'friends' online for years.


I've been surprised to see instead of coming together (like I thought) there seems to have been one fight after another. Its a mirror of what's happening in the real world. I believe this is what the people that run the countries want, sending out misinformation and wanting to fight so the truth gets lost.

 I am from a place that Knows fighting only too well. And both sides truly believe they are right, some would kill and die for that faith. Both sides are right and wrong. Both sides have done evil and good. But its the higher people that should concern people the most, the ones that are getting power and money from the fighting.


I'm not saying this virus is going to end the world. I am so much more less informed then many, if not all of yous. But shouldn't we be using this as a test run? Building on what would or could happen. 

If this forum can't come together as a community then the rest of the world hasn't got a chance. But I'm an optimistic and still believe in hope :-)


Sorry if I have overstepped my boundaries. To you I am a stranger but to me I know yous.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 5:15am

I hope that it is clear by now that we are in a twilight struggle against viruses, germs and whatever nature or a nation state can throw at us.  All I want to do is to live.  I have been thru a lot.  I hope that everyone gets a vaccine and if you don't then hopefully you won't come near me.  I think of all the advances in modern medical tech and wonder what if there were people who fought against blood transfusions or the measles vaccine.  I wonder what would have happened if there was a whole crowd who was opposed to X rays.  That they claimed that X rays could cause you to die or  that your skin would turn green and you would bark at the moon.  And what if, parents refused to bring their kids in for dental x rays  or to fix  a broken arm because they opposed x rays.  Wouldn't you think that was totally bonkers ?   Now, take the word X rays and switch it with covid vaccine.  The vaccine is a tool against a killer.  It is no different than x rays or the flu shot or insulin.  Of course there are risks in medical tech, but as a friend told me once, I would rather have a shot than die from coivd.  I understand the reluctance to take the shot.  Had a very good freind of mine who died from a drug reaction.   But in the end, it is a choice, you have the right to not take the vaccine.  You, however do not have the right to cause me to get sick by not getting a shot.   So, I have an idea, send all the anti vaxxers to kiwi.  Let kiwi  deal with them, let the rest of us get on with the business of informing the world of the virus and it's spread and possible prevention and mitigation.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 6:26am

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

All we need to do is move on from whether vaccine's are safe or not ,

I just posted that life carries no guarantees in another area.  If you're looking for one, you'll be disappointed.


Beyond the fact that this thread seems to have degenerated into arguing pro or con vaccine, I'd like to point out a few things. 

We all have freedom of speech. But with freedom comes great responsibility.  That and we ALL have freedom of speech.  So when one posts something another disagrees with, be prepared to ACCURATELY  and FACTUALLY defend your stance.  I haven't seen a lot of that from the cons....and yes a few pros... except to spam the forum with unsubstantiated and old information and make factually erroneous blanket statements to bully people into submission.

Yes.  I said bully.  There's a lot of that going on and it needs to stop.

Everybody makes blanket statements.  There is no reason in the world to believe on that on an internet forum built from bits and bytes that anyone should be understood.  In this respect, they'll either be called out for that statement.  Stop whining and clarify.  Instead I'm seeing gaslighting, twisting of words and spamming of links from questionable sources and old information.  Frankly its tiresome.  It's why I don't even bother to address some people here anymore.  And that's a shame.  Because although I believe all voices should be heard, there are some voices that have illustrated they do not and can not add any value to my experience here.  As such, I ignore their posts.

Yes, I said ignore.  There's not a lot of that going on and it needs to stop.

The only other thing I can add is that people here need to start treating each other the way they expect to be treated.  I have very few expectations that I'm "heard" on this forum.  That's good, because when I'm not heard I don't start whining and calling other people names.  The inferences of same needs to stop as well.


Yes I said don't start whining and calling other people names.  Not to mention the inferences of what avoidance of name calling means. There's a fair bit of that going on around here and it needs to stop.

I'm sure everyone has their own ideas on what would constitute a more peaceful union here on Pandemic Talk.  In my own opinion, the bullying needs to stop, ignoring those you don't think add value to your experience here has to start, name calling and inferences of the like need to stop.

I have no expectation that this forum will every come to peace on the vaccine debate.   But those who don't meet my expectations in terms of exchanges on the aforementioned and other topics where there are differences and opinion can certainly expect some "correction".  That being said, if you have a problem if someone suggests you're wrong as if it somehow makes you look stupid or makes you a bad person, then ignore me.  Please.  I'm a New Yorker.  And as much as I try to sit on my fingers, I tend to talk with my hands.

Bright blessings to you all. 




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 1:06pm

Originally posted by EdwinSm, EdwinSm, wrote:

KiwiMum I think you are here (and a number of times in the past) using a straw-man argument saying that everyone here is 100% pro-vaccination.   That.is.blatantly.no.true.    

While it is true that I am pro-vaccination,  I have never been the 100% you claim I and everyone else you disagree with is.   In the early stages I did post that I was glad I was not a health working needing to decide on taking the vaccine early on before some of the risks were seen.  However, by the time it was available to my age group I was happy with the balance of RISKS.   I have also posted on some of the negative reactions to the vaccine.     I do hope I have never implied that vaccinations are the "be all and end all" in fighting the effects of covid-19 (and the virus that causes it), yet you are using sweeping statements to put down people like me.  


You say you want discussion, but you haven't really acted like that.  On a post I made about data from Finland showing unvaccinated people being 33 time more likely to end up in ICU than vaccinated people, you did not try to discuss the data of the post and went on some anti-vacciation line complaining that vaccines are not 100% safe  [which is obvious from the 3% or '1' in a 33:1 ratio].   You would earn more respect if you were willing to debate the data rather than try to dis-rail the thread, in what appeared to me to be a troll like fashion.  I would not have minded if the debate in the thread went to how differing countries had a different ratio, and what that means.    I chose not to respond to your posts in the thread I started because you were not entering into a debate.  But then my purpose here is not to have endless 'debates', but to learn about risks and how to navigate them.


It is in this navigating the risks that I am mostly saddened by what seems to me to be you focusing on, and pushing, an anti-vaxx line, rather than focusing on how to LIVE in the current situation.  You have a lot to offer from your experiences in prepping for various situations and in that area I respect your posting.   [The economy has held up better than I expected but there are signs of strain - so the whole preparing line will, in my opinion, be as important as the function for giving early warnings for which this site has been very valuable].

Edwin, I'm honestly baffled by what you've written. I've always thought that you and Josh are the most reasonable and polite people on this forum, so I'm really surprised to hear your anger and I'm sorry if I've upset you in the past. I certainly never meant to offend you as I appear to have done. Btw, I didn't think you were 100% pro vaxx.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 1:10pm

Originally posted by pheasant pheasant wrote:

I remember when all it started (for me at least), when DRph made it 100% clear that masks were useless and he knew the "science". He was actually demeaning in his response to people who wanted to use masks. I actually felt ashamed buying some after listening to his rambling about all his accomplishments, expert knowledge, and superior man training and education under the guise of the "best information available"....I work for the government, and know everything crap, and lets not forget the posts of badges, and certificates...

I berated some at work in the beginning of the pandemic for using those "useless" Masks, and then after some time, waiting to buy some myself and going  through considerable angst trying to find them when DRph changed his mind (note the science never changed)...Fauci anyone?

There is no language i can use to describe my anger after finding out he was flat wrong and a quack......and how my decision to listen and not stockpile masks could effect my, and my family s safety.......I took that personally.

Now they are mandatory for whole societies.

The point is (and we have discussed this many times) nothing is set in stone except death and taxes. As science learns more, approaches to beating this change. The problem comes when people stake out a cast on cement position on an issue and refuse to budge, even as new information comes out, this is how people split into 2 camps. One side does not trust the other....so who is drinking the Koolaid?

After getting thoroughly pissed off at Mr. PHD for making false statements (which affected my family and relationship with my wife) I decided to make my own decisions with the best information i could find..... 

The problem here is that one camp believes they have the monopoly on knowledge, and everyone else is wrong, there cannot be any room for dissent, differing opinion, some say "ohh well, we welcome your opinion, even tho its wrong".

This forum has been essentially turned into the "flat earth" debate with both sides claiming the others are the flat earthe'rs.

Well said. The situation and the evidence and the knowledge is an ever evolving beast.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 1:29pm

Thank you for all your responses. It's good to air grievances and clear the air. 

Shall we draw a line under this and accept that, based on our own individual experiences and perceptions, we each have a different and valid point of view?

I will certainly try to be more considerate of other people's viewpoint, and I'm sorry if I have offended anyone with my posts. I think we underestimate the how easy it is to misunderstand,  misconstrue and misinterpretate someone's written word. A well intentioned phrase may well read by someone else as something entirely different. We should all try to bear in mind that we are spread across the globe, in different cultures and for some of us, English might not be their first language. Cultural sensitivities vary, even in the English speaking countries. 

I wish you all well. Shall we move on?

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote HoneyBee08 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 1:46pm

Not so fast.  This thread has been up only one day.  I know two people who would probably like to weigh in, who are away at the moment.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote A-I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 2:42pm

Abraham Lincoln was know to intentionally fill his cabinet positions with rival politicians who had diametrically opposed political views and positions. This had the effect of rather vigorous debates and discussions when making decisions which Lincoln encouraged.

"Facts don't care about your feelings" I'M A UNVAXXED DEVIL so kiss my rebel ass.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 2:50pm

Kiwi - You have offended quite a few people and I don't see that changing!

NOW is the Season to Know

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 3:19pm

Originally posted by pheasant pheasant wrote:

I remember when all it started (for me at least), when DRph made it 100% clear that masks were useless and he knew the "science". He was actually demeaning in his response to people who wanted to use masks. I actually felt ashamed buying some after listening to his rambling about all his accomplishments, expert knowledge, and superior man training and education under the guise of the "best information available"....I work for the government, and know everything crap, and lets not forget the posts of badges, and certificates...

I berated some at work in the beginning of the pandemic for using those "useless" Masks, and then after some time, waiting to buy some myself and going  through considerable angst trying to find them when DRph changed his mind (note the science never changed)...Fauci anyone?

There is no language i can use to describe my anger after finding out he was flat wrong and a quack......and how my decision to listen and not stockpile masks could effect my, and my family s safety.......I took that personally.

Now they are mandatory for whole societies.

Fair enough, I was quoting what was then the best known scientific data on mask usage.  One major consideration that public health specialists had was that we were concerned of public hoarding of masks & PPE, robbing health workers of this vital protection. 

My information was from a colleague, Dr. Lisa Brousseau, at the University of Illinois School of Public Health: 

https://publichealth.uic.edu/news-stories/commentary-masks-for-all-for-covid-19-not-based-on-sound-data/

Conclusions

While this is not an exhaustive review of masks and respirators as source control and PPE, we made our best effort to locate and review the most relevant studies of laboratory and real-world performance to inform our recommendations. Results from laboratory studies of filter and fit performance inform and support the findings in real-world settings.

Cloth masks are ineffective as source control and PPE, surgical masks have some role to play in preventing emissions from infected patients, and respirators are the best choice for protecting healthcare and other frontline workers, but not recommended for source control. These recommendations apply to pandemic and non-pandemic situations.

Leaving aside the fact that they are ineffective, telling the public to wear cloth or surgical masks could be interpreted by some to mean that people are safe to stop isolating at home. It’s too late now for anything but stopping as much person-to-person interaction as possible.

Masks may confuse that message and give people a false sense of security. If masks had been the solution in Asia, shouldn’t they have stopped the pandemic before it spread elsewhere?


I contend that I have yet to be proven wrong throughout this pandemic.  I predicted the return of 2003 SARS coronavirus in 2009 in a lecture to MD and PhD students and faculty at University of Illinois.  My prediction was based upon the fact that the Chinese would not undertake basic food chain biosecurity and eliminate mixing wild game (bats, pangolins, civet cats etc.) in their repugnant "wet market" ecosystem.  Sure enough, that appears to be the likely source of this outbreak.  

My first post to AFT on this matter is in black, below (Jan 8, 2020).   I predicted that the Wuhan virus was, in fact, an emerging coronavirus based upon the limited reporting out of China.  I posted this on Jan 8, 2020 and the index case (first death) in China was Jan 11, 2020.  First US case was Jan 21, so I was weeks ahead of the reporting. 

I was requested by the FBI to give a back-of-the envelope estimate of US mortalities based upon the limited Chinese data.  This is part of my formal response, submitted on March 13, 2020, which came before confirmation by UK epidemiologist teams on March 16, 2020. 

US population is presently about 331 million souls. if about 1/3 of us are at highest risk for serious illness, the numerator is 100 million. CFR (case fatality rate) may be 2%, so 2 million might die from this one in the US.

"Sweeping new federal recommendations announced on Monday for Americans to sharply limit their activities appeared to draw on a dire scientific report warning that, without action by the government and individuals to slow the spread of coronavirus and suppress new cases, 2.2 million people in the United States could die."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-fatality-rate-white-house.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Sweeping new federal recommendations announced on Monday for Americans to sharply limit their activities appeared to draw on a dire scientific report warning that, without action by the government and individuals to slow the spread of coronavirus and suppress new cases, 2.2 million people in the United States could die.

To summarize: I am a highly respected expert in infectious diseases.  Pheasant, I'm sorry if you feel you missed out on your chance to hoard masks based upon my advice, but your attitude is exactly what made this pandemic so long-lived to begin with - for every proper (not cloth) mask that was hoarded and not used, some medical worker may have been infected and died.  

I have yet to be proven wrong in any of my statements on AFT/PT.  The irrational fears of the public against accepting some of the safest and most studied vaccines in history has resulted in a "petri dish" culture, whereby the SARS-CoV2 virus can continue to propagate and mutate.  Delta and Omicron will not be the worst variants of this virus we will face.  





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Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

Originally posted by pheasant pheasant wrote:

I remember when all it started (for me at least), when DRph made it 100% clear that masks were useless and he knew the "science". He was actually demeaning in his response to people who wanted to use masks. I actually felt ashamed buying some after listening to his rambling about all his accomplishments, expert knowledge, and superior man training and education under the guise of the "best information available"....I work for the government, and know everything crap, and lets not forget the posts of badges, and certificates...

I berated some at work in the beginning of the pandemic for using those "useless" Masks, and then after some time, waiting to buy some myself and going  through considerable angst trying to find them when DRph changed his mind (note the science never changed)...Fauci anyone?

There is no language i can use to describe my anger after finding out he was flat wrong and a quack......and how my decision to listen and not stockpile masks could effect my, and my family s safety.......I took that personally.

Now they are mandatory for whole societies.



I was requested by the FBI to give a back-of-the envelope estimate of US mortalities based upon the limited Chinese data.  This is part of my formal response, submitted on March 13, 2020, which came before confirmation by UK epidemiologist teams on March 16, 2020. 

US population is presently about 331 million souls. if about 1/3 of us are at highest risk for serious illness, the numerator is 100 million. CFR (case fatality rate) may be 2%, so 2 million might die from this one in the US.

Do you have a screen shot of the formula( including a time frame for those number of deaths)  that you gave on here back then regarding the number of possible deaths due to covid? Seems I recall you said 3 million dead in a year and I could be wrong it was almost 2 years ago, but I don't think so.  



"Facts don't care about your feelings" I'M A UNVAXXED DEVIL so kiss my rebel ass.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 4:32pm

Originally posted by A-I A-I wrote:

Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

Originally posted by pheasant pheasant wrote:

I remember when all it started (for me at least), when DRph made it 100% clear that masks were useless and he knew the "science". He was actually demeaning in his response to people who wanted to use masks. I actually felt ashamed buying some after listening to his rambling about all his accomplishments, expert knowledge, and superior man training and education under the guise of the "best information available"....I work for the government, and know everything crap, and lets not forget the posts of badges, and certificates...

I berated some at work in the beginning of the pandemic for using those "useless" Masks, and then after some time, waiting to buy some myself and going  through considerable angst trying to find them when DRph changed his mind (note the science never changed)...Fauci anyone?

There is no language i can use to describe my anger after finding out he was flat wrong and a quack......and how my decision to listen and not stockpile masks could effect my, and my family s safety.......I took that personally.

Now they are mandatory for whole societies.



I was requested by the FBI to give a back-of-the envelope estimate of US mortalities based upon the limited Chinese data.  This is part of my formal response, submitted on March 13, 2020, which came before confirmation by UK epidemiologist teams on March 16, 2020. 

US population is presently about 331 million souls. if about 1/3 of us are at highest risk for serious illness, the numerator is 100 million. CFR (case fatality rate) may be 2%, so 2 million might die from this one in the US.

Do you have a screen shot of the formula and response that you gave on here back then regarding the number of possible deaths due to covid? Seems I recall you said 3 million dead and I could be wrong it was almost 2 years ago, but I don't think


Not that one, but I have always stayed with this formula - predicted cases (numerator) over vulnerable population (entire US population).  This was my email to my FBI superior:

US population is presently about 331 million souls. if about 1/3 of us are at highest risk for serious illness, the numerator is 100 million. CFR (case fatality rate) may be 2%, so 2 million might die from this one in the US.

I stayed with 2 million, and the assumption was no vaccine available.  With the development of a vaccine, I made a later post predicting that the USA would suffer 1 million deaths from COVID-19.  We appear to be on track for that number.

This is my final post on AFT/PT.  Be safe.

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Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

Originally posted by A-I A-I wrote:

Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

Originally posted by pheasant pheasant wrote:

I remember when all it started (for me at least), when DRph made it 100% clear that masks were useless and he knew the "science". He was actually demeaning in his response to people who wanted to use masks. I actually felt ashamed buying some after listening to his rambling about all his accomplishments, expert knowledge, and superior man training and education under the guise of the "best information available"....I work for the government, and know everything crap, and lets not forget the posts of badges, and certificates...

I berated some at work in the beginning of the pandemic for using those "useless" Masks, and then after some time, waiting to buy some myself and going  through considerable angst trying to find them when DRph changed his mind (note the science never changed)...Fauci anyone?

There is no language i can use to describe my anger after finding out he was flat wrong and a quack......and how my decision to listen and not stockpile masks could effect my, and my family s safety.......I took that personally.

Now they are mandatory for whole societies.



I was requested by the FBI to give a back-of-the envelope estimate of US mortalities based upon the limited Chinese data.  This is part of my formal response, submitted on March 13, 2020, which came before confirmation by UK epidemiologist teams on March 16, 2020. 

US population is presently about 331 million souls. if about 1/3 of us are at highest risk for serious illness, the numerator is 100 million. CFR (case fatality rate) may be 2%, so 2 million might die from this one in the US.

Do you have a screen shot of the formula and response that you gave on here back then regarding the number of possible deaths due to covid? Seems I recall you said 3 million dead and I could be wrong it was almost 2 years ago, but I don't think


Not that one, but I have always stayed with this formula - predicted cases (numerator) over vulnerable population (entire US population).  This was my email to my FBI superior:

US population is presently about 331 million souls. if about 1/3 of us are at highest risk for serious illness, the numerator is 100 million. CFR (case fatality rate) may be 2%, so 2 million might die from this one in the US.

I stayed with 2 million, and the assumption was no vaccine available.  With the development of a vaccine, I made a later post predicting that the USA would suffer 1 million deaths from COVID-19.  We appear to be on track for that number.

This is my final post on AFT/PT.  Be safe.

Hmm interesting you have that screenshot but not the latter one with your post that has the formula and your prediction. We did have an exchange about that post and your number so that's why I have a memory about it. And I have a pretty good memory just was wanting to check my memory. You be safe too.

"Facts don't care about your feelings" I'M A UNVAXXED DEVIL so kiss my rebel ass.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 5:27pm

Originally posted by A-I A-I wrote:

Hmm interesting you have that screenshot but not the latter one with your post that has the formula and your prediction. We did have an exchange about that post and your number so that's why I have a memory about it. And I have a pretty good memory just was wanting to check my memory. You be safe too.

I have made probably hundreds of posts, I took that screenshot because I had a feeling it would be prophetic. 

My math has never changed throughout.   We are now at 787,000 deaths in the USA, and my prediction of 1 million deaths was based upon the logical thinking that the population would embrace a safe and effective vaccine. 

Instead, many people act like petulant children, throwing toys and screaming "FREEDOM!!" and "PERSONAL CHOICE" and so forth.  I have no use for such idiots, and this forum has its share. 

They used to have leper colonies for good reasons, we should probably consider bringing them back again.  Viruses don't care about religious preferences, irrational fears and political orientation, they only exist to infect, replicate and move on.  COVID-19 is now completely inter-twined in the community of human infectious diseases and will continue to mutate into new and interesting forms. 

Will it become more deadly than the Delta variant?  It might, although spillover viruses tend to attenuate when they become widespread in the human population.  However, the large population of HIV positive patients in the world is like a playground to this virus, which is why the Omicron variant erupted from South Africa. 

I no longer have use for fools who ignore reason and science.  Whenever I made a prediction, I always provided can independent confirmation of my thinking based upon the latest developments.  I no longer have an interest in discussing this pandemic, but will warn everyone that this was only a dress rehearsal for what is likely to be a much more serious infectious disease.  


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Moving on......

It's a nice sunny day here.......

Take care all πŸ˜·πŸ˜‰πŸ’‰

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 9:29pm

Originally posted by roni3470 roni3470 wrote:

Kiwi - You have offended quite a few people and I don't see that changing!

Seriously????? In what way? By having an opinion that was different to yours? This is ridiculous. I was being conciliatory in an effort to restart discussion but now I'm over it. Say what you like it really is water off a duck's back to me. I might as well be talking to block of cheese.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

Moving on......

It's a nice sunny day here.......

Take care all πŸ˜·πŸ˜‰πŸ’‰

I wish we could move on Carbon but some people seem determined to keep flogging......anyway it's pouring with glorious heavy rain here and we really need it. It was 28 degs yesterday, 9 degs today.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2021 at 2:24pm

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

Moving on......

It's a nice sunny day here.......

Take care all πŸ˜·πŸ˜‰πŸ’‰

I think you're wrong here, buddy.  I know the instinct is to draw a line under things, but I think that would be a mistake.  A big one.  Several members thus far have called out Kiwimum over the ill feelings she elicited.  Two of them don't think anything has been resolved.  Not targeting Kiwimum because I've seen she's gotten her feelings hurt too. That being said, I'm not seeing any understanding from either end of the proverbial equation. Unless there is understanding and indications certain behaviors will stop, this will not end with a line drawn on this thread.  It will simply continue.  

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Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:


I no longer have use for fools who ignore reason and science.  Whenever I made a prediction, I always provided can independent confirmation of my thinking based upon the latest developments.  I no longer have an interest in discussing this pandemic, but will warn everyone that this was only a dress rehearsal for what is likely to be a much more serious infectious disease.  

Have I told you lately how much I admire and love you?  I hope Mrs. CRS doesn't mind me saying that!  I admire her too for marrying such a great guy!

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Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

I wish we could move on Carbon but some people seem determined to keep flogging...

I don't think anyone is trying to flog you.  The wish is that there is some indication that certain behaviors will stop.  Neither side has given any indication of that.  There's an old hymn my mother was very fond of.  One of the lines are "Let there be peace on earth and let it begin with me".  

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Well I've just posted on another thread,"sorry"

Seems I keep asking ,but falls on deaf ears ,so you all right ,I have tried to stay off here so busy at work ,

This antivax thing has been going on far to long ,it's a facille argument,seeing as though millions of people have been vaccinated....!!!!!?

And millions more will be ,the only people listening to KW are the people on here!!!!

And we are all BORED WITH IT.....HER......

Questions have been ask as to how she a moderator,

I'm one I never asked to be one ,Roni or WM , would be a better choice,I'm far to  busy,  hence my poping on with short firey  statements.... for which I apologize,mostly......lol

Take care all πŸ˜·πŸ˜‰πŸ’‰


Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2021 at 2:49pm

I stand corrected.  Carbon is flogging.    Bad Carbon!   Give Kiwimum a chance to digest and everyone look at their own behaviors.  

FWIW, something like this doesn't just stop.  People just don't get over the kind of chit I've seen going on since I resolved to become more active.  I'd rather see an evolving conversation about it.  Not to flog each other but to see what sinks in and to see if people are capable of owning it.  It's just too Ayn Rand an arrogant to believe that what we say can't hurt another.  I know it sounds airy fairy, but it's an opportunity for growth as individuals and as a forum.


P.S.  I would NOT be a better choice. Vision prohibits me from filtering through some of the epic posts people do here and I'm not willing to risk watery eyes and headaches.  Besides, I'm just way too bombastic.  No one would take me seriously. But thanks for the vote of confidence.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2021 at 8:39pm

Maybe just trying to get this forum on the rails...We do not have to "settle our differences" ! Difference of opinions make/keep forums interesting ! 

But try to keep it polite, friendly...modest ! 

Even the best experts seem to disagree on many things in/on this pandemic...from what vaccines can (not) do to if there can/will be more (and what kind of) variants.....

We all are learning, trying to stay informed.....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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I am with Josh on this, we will probably never settle our differences.

To help keep the forum going it would be best if we do not spam/troll threads that other people have started.  If there is a disagreement with what someone has posted you are free to state why you disagree but it is wrong to just spout political statements.

Also there is a sub-forum for political discussion, so keep those discussions to that that sub-forum 

Further there are various derogatory "N" words that should not be used.    

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When the news of this pandemic broke, I remember talking about it with a friend.  Like Cobber, I believed it was impossible to develop a vaccine for Covid, because it mutated too fast.  When it became available, I waited until May to get vaxxed even though I was eligible to get the vax alot sooner, because I wanted to see how other people who took it fared. 

I saw an interview with one of the scientists that developed the Moderna vax.  He answered all those who felt the vaccine was rushed/not tested enough by using this analogy: We started working on this vaccine after the original SARS in 2003, because we knew there would be a next time.  We assembled the vaccine carefully, like an engineer would construct a plane.  We had the entire plane constructed.  The only thing we did after Covid broke was carefully choose the pilot, and place him in the seat.  I'm paraphrasing, but that is how he described it.  That, and the fact that that I could find no reports of any major, widespread negative effects from the vaxxes were why I decided to go and get vaxxed and with the Moderna.

Having said that, I do not believe for a second that the pandemic has been managed well.  In order for the vaccine strategy to have really worked, in my opinion, we needed to roll it out alot differently.  Lockdowns till the vaccine rollout, accompanied by distancing and correct usage of masks, mandated.  It should have been a four-legged stool, not a one-legged one.

I have no particular animus toward those who do not wish to vax.  In a perfect world, those opposed could choose to not get vaxxed, as long as there was a commitment to the other three legs of the stool.  The problems with that are: the vaccine rollouts, by necessity, took a long time; very few countries were willing to commit to a lengthy lockdown; people suck at distancing and masking.  So the next best, in order to end the pandemic quickly, would be to vax everyone.  But that is not possible either, so, as Jacksdad said, we have a slow burn situation with the virus, and we probably will for quite some time.

Alot of people who have commented had some good points and ideas.  I agree with Josh, Edwin and Witchy.  This is probably going to have to be an evolving conversation, this thread.  I also like what Witchy said, let there be peace, and let it begin with me.  So if I have offended anyone, I apologize and will endeavor to do better.  Also, Witchy suggested we learn to ignore people who do not add value to our experience here.  I agree, and would like to take it one step further: several years ago, this site had a spammer named Aurora, who came back as Crying Out Loud.  She was eventually sent packing, but it was suggested to Albert that we install an "ignore" or "hide" button, as there is on other sites, so that if there is someone who rubs us the wrong way, we can just not have to see their posts.  If such a thing is possible, I'd sure love to see it done; I think it's a great idea.

I agree with KiwiMum that we must be open to the evolving science on this matter.  I feel that our standard for presenting that science at times on this site could improve, as a few have stated.  I commit to that improvement, and I hope everyone will also.

Several people have remarked how much the tone of this site has changed recently.  I spent the evenings of the past couple days going through some selected posts that have been made since my advent here eight years ago.  It is my opinion, from what I saw, that the changes began after the 2016 US election, and accelerated during Covid.  This is true in society as a whole as well.  These events have been stressful to many of us, and sometimes it is hard to remember, but 



I can honestly say that most everyone on this site seem to be fine folks; I'd love to have a beer, a martini, or a cup of coffee with a good many of you, even ones I have disagreed with.  Maybe someday...

I am the DZ Queen, and I approve this message.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2021 at 8:55pm

ViQueen24-warm & welcome, wise words ! Thank you ! 

"It aint what you say, its the way that you say it...that's what gets results...." (Bananarama...70's or so)

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 08 2021 at 1:01pm

Not it!  haha!  As long as we can keep our sidebars Carbon, I am good with just that!  Nothing but love!

NOW is the Season to Know

that Everything you Do

is Sacred
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 08 2021 at 1:32pm

Peace and love to all xx

Take very good care all not sure at the moment what the future holds,

World is in a flux at the moment,

Russia, Ukraine....

China, Taiwan.....

pandemic that could go many ways.

we still living covid free here , no lockdown no mandates,80% fully vaccinated, aming for 90%,

borders open in January , thats the plan  , should be interesting.......

take care all πŸ˜·πŸ˜‰πŸ’‰

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 10 2021 at 10:41am

Originally posted by A-I A-I wrote:

Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

[QUOTE=pheasant]

I remember when all it started (for me at least), when DRph made it 100% clear that masks were useless and he knew the "science". He was actually demeaning in his response to people who wanted to use masks. I actually felt ashamed buying some after listening to his rambling about all his accomplishments, expert knowledge, and superior man training and education under the guise of the "best information available"....I work for the government, and know everything crap, and lets not forget the posts of badges, and certificates...

I berated some at work in the beginning of the pandemic for using those "useless" Masks, and then after some time, waiting to buy some myself and going  through considerable angst trying to find them when DRph changed his mind (note the science never changed)...Fauci anyone?

There is no language i can use to describe my anger after finding out he was flat wrong and a quack......and how my decision to listen and not stockpile masks could effect my, and my family s safety.......I took that personally.

Now they are mandatory for whole societies.



I was requested by the FBI to give a back-of-the envelope estimate of US mortalities based upon the limited Chinese data.  This is part of my formal response, submitted on March 13, 2020, which came before confirmation by UK epidemiologist teams on March 16, 2020. 

US population is presently about 331 million souls. if about 1/3 of us are at highest risk for serious illness, the numerator is 100 million. CFR (case fatality rate) may be 2%, so 2 million might die from this one in the US.

Do you have a screen shot of the formula( including a time frame for those number of deaths)  that you gave on here back then regarding the number of possible deaths due to covid? Seems I recall you said 3 million dead in a year and I could be wrong it was almost 2 years ago, but I don't think so.  


Since May 2021, people living in counties that voted heavily for Donald Trump during the last presidential election have been nearly three times as likely to die from COVID-19 as those who live in areas that went for now-President Biden. That's according to a new analysis by NPR that examines how political polarization and misinformation are driving a significant share of the deaths in the pandemic.

NPR looked at deaths per 100,000 people in roughly 3,000 counties across the U.S. from May 2021, the point at which vaccinations widely became available. People living in counties that went 60% or higher for Trump in November 2020 had 2.73 times the death rates of those that went for Biden. Counties with an even higher share of the vote for Trump saw higher COVID-19 mortality rates. 

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/12/05/1059828993/data-vaccine-misinformation-trump-counties-covid-death-rate

Regarding my formulas used - I made my calculations based upon Epidemiology 101.  You will find the information you seek here. 

https://www.cdc.gov/training/publichealth101/epidemiology.html#anchor_available_materials

Also, I think my predictions pre-dated those of Dr. Osterholm, or at least we were right about the same time.  I said "about 1 million," he predicted 800,000.  Same-same in epidemiology.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/09/opinions/infectious-disease-expert-warned-covid-19-deaths-bergen/index.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote A-I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 10 2021 at 9:15pm

Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

Originally posted by A-I A-I wrote:

Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

[QUOTE=pheasant]

I remember when all it started (for me at least), when DRph made it 100% clear that masks were useless and he knew the "science". He was actually demeaning in his response to people who wanted to use masks. I actually felt ashamed buying some after listening to his rambling about all his accomplishments, expert knowledge, and superior man training and education under the guise of the "best information available"....I work for the government, and know everything crap, and lets not forget the posts of badges, and certificates...

I berated some at work in the beginning of the pandemic for using those "useless" Masks, and then after some time, waiting to buy some myself and going  through considerable angst trying to find them when DRph changed his mind (note the science never changed)...Fauci anyone?

There is no language i can use to describe my anger after finding out he was flat wrong and a quack......and how my decision to listen and not stockpile masks could effect my, and my family s safety.......I took that personally.

Now they are mandatory for whole societies.



I was requested by the FBI to give a back-of-the envelope estimate of US mortalities based upon the limited Chinese data.  This is part of my formal response, submitted on March 13, 2020, which came before confirmation by UK epidemiologist teams on March 16, 2020. 

US population is presently about 331 million souls. if about 1/3 of us are at highest risk for serious illness, the numerator is 100 million. CFR (case fatality rate) may be 2%, so 2 million might die from this one in the US.

Do you have a screen shot of the formula( including a time frame for those number of deaths)  that you gave on here back then regarding the number of possible deaths due to covid? Seems I recall you said 3 million dead in a year and I could be wrong it was almost 2 years ago, but I don't think so.  


Since May 2021, people living in counties that voted heavily for Donald Trump during the last presidential election have been nearly three times as likely to die from COVID-19 as those who live in areas that went for now-President Biden. That's according to a new analysis by NPR that examines how political polarization and misinformation are driving a significant share of the deaths in the pandemic.

NPR looked at deaths per 100,000 people in roughly 3,000 counties across the U.S. from May 2021, the point at which vaccinations widely became available. People living in counties that went 60% or higher for Trump in November 2020 had 2.73 times the death rates of those that went for Biden. Counties with an even higher share of the vote for Trump saw higher COVID-19 mortality rates. 

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/12/05/1059828993/data-vaccine-misinformation-trump-counties-covid-death-rate

Regarding my formulas used - I made my calculations based upon Epidemiology 101.  You will find the information you seek here. 

https://www.cdc.gov/training/publichealth101/epidemiology.html#anchor_available_materials

Also, I think my predictions pre-dated those of Dr. Osterholm, or at least we were right about the same time.  I said "about 1 million," he predicted 800,000.  Same-same in epidemiology.



































 

Well took me a bit to find our specific conversation, had to reread through the pandemic. That was like time travel. Seems my recollection of 3 million was not correct. Your predictions of covid deaths went from 250,000 to 2 million and then settled at 1 million. Maybe I was adding up all your predictions. LOL. I am curious though given there was no time frame associated with your "prediction" when it breaks the 1 million mark are you going to revert to the 2 million prediction? I mean I could say 10,000 people in the US are going to die from chicken pox and I'd be right sooner or later since about 100-150 die each year from them. Time frame is relevant it's 19 months post prediction and when covid is no longer a pandemic but rather endemic, the deaths will continue just like the flu.

As for masks I did see you calling them "useless" and saying "calm down no mask will save you".  And given that you'r an expert I expect that you based that response on your knowledge of all the peer reviewed large scale mask studies (surgical masks) prior to covid about the virtually negligible effect they had on stopping the flu in study after study. And no you didn't give the "saving them for health care workers" excuse at the time you stated all that, that came later.  Now the question I have for the expert such as yourself, is how is it that simple cloth masks are now proclaimed to help stop the spread of covid yet they couldn't help stop a less transmissible virus like the flu?  And lets not forget that the flu and covid are both spread via droplet transmission so the "well the masks are catching coughs and sneezes" applied to the flu studies as well. It's a very simple question.

And now we get to your leper colony for those not vaxxed comment. I assume you must also be thinking there would be a separate but equal leper colony for those who are vaxxed. I mean you are the expert and you are cognizant by now I hope of the fact the vaxx doesn't stop transmission of covid by those vaxxed correct? ???And Omnicron seems to not care in the least about being spread by the triple vaxxed, and is in fact seems quite adept at being spread by the vaxxed. You are going to need a really really big vaxxed leper colony.

And the leper colony comment and  your prior comments about wanting to use tanks on protesters as well as a few others you have made leads me to believe you are an extremist. Camps for the non vaxxed  LOL how very VAXXNAZI of you, maybe you can command a panzer tank at one. It's a good thing you are not in a position to actually effect any policy, or well do anything really for that matter actually, but post your extremist views. 

And one last thing Bidens CDC sure did a bang up job of effectively facilitating the spread of covid using the vaxxed from May 13th till July 27th. Delta sure took advantage of it. Follow the science right LOL

Be well and wash your hands. Oh and Merry Christmas!!!!

PS We can save the chat about leaky vaccines(VAXX) and their negative effects for another time.



"Facts don't care about your feelings" I'M A UNVAXXED DEVIL so kiss my rebel ass.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2021 at 8:44am

This thread is a week old and here we are again…

Your post is exactly why people are divided here. You take pride in humiliating and insulting others. You seem to have elevated yourself to the attacker in chief, what happened to the understanding we all have different viewpoints? This go along to get along leads to hesitance to post knowing you will personally attack them if it is not to your liking.You owe CRS DrPH and all of us an apology for your behavior and the moderator should support it.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote A-I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2021 at 11:49am

Originally posted by Pixie Pixie wrote:

This thread is a week old and here we are again…

Your post is exactly why people are divided here. You take pride in humiliating and insulting others. You seem to have elevated yourself to the attacker in chief, what happened to the understanding we all have different viewpoints? This go along to get along leads to hesitance to post knowing you will personally attack them if it is not to your liking.You owe CRS DrPH and all of us an apology for your behavior and the moderator should support it.

Apology huh? OK.  Sorry I don't support radical extremist viewpoints that call out for, and cause division. Sorry that you apparently do, as you were silent about his extremist dividing comment, but somehow mine calling it out for what it actually is, is "dividing" and hence warranted your post. How very interesting and telling. And just because some have a different viewpoint, it most certainly doesn't mean you have to agree with it or remain silent.  Especially when it comes to radical extremism. That's how it festers and leads to full blown infection.

Radical extremest viewpoints need to be called out for what they are, wherever and whenever they are found. Whether online or in life. 

John Stuart Mill British Philosopher sums it up rather nicely.

Let not anyone pacify his conscience by the delusion that he can do no harm if he takes no part, and forms no opinion. Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing. He is not a good man who, without a protest, allows wrong to be committed in his name, and with the means he helps to supply, because he will not trouble himself to use his mind on the subject”  

And history shows Mill's words to be true as inaction and looking the other way lead extremist ideologist to commit atrocities by the state in the name of the people "for the greater good and their safety"

{Note to A-I:  section deleted - Please refrain from calling people you disagree with by the "N" word}

"Facts don't care about your feelings" I'M A UNVAXXED DEVIL so kiss my rebel ass.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2021 at 12:09pm

Originally posted by Pixie Pixie wrote:

This thread is a week old and here we are again…

Your post is exactly why people are divided here. You take pride in humiliating and insulting others. You seem to have elevated yourself to the attacker in chief, what happened to the understanding we all have different viewpoints? This go along to get along leads to hesitance to post knowing you will personally attack them if it is not to your liking.You owe CRS DrPH and all of us an apology for your behavior and the moderator should support it.

Thanks, Pixie, I appreciate it!  I said I'd leave and I keep coming back!    

A few thoughts: 

a) mRNA vaccines - actually, this technology has been in development for a number of years, and was proposed to counteract the 2003 SARS pandemic (pandemic doesn't mean world-wide, just more than one country involved).  Whole virus vaccines like Sinovac can work very well for some viruses like influenza, but coronavirus is different....if whole-virus vaccines worked against coronavirus, we would have eliminated the common cold.  The spike protein on coronas is more complex than the hemagluttinin on flu viruses, so it is always a moving target.   There is no reason whatsoever to wish to select an attenuated virus vaccine like Sinovac over Moderna or Pfizer, the mRNA vaccines have now been given to millions of people with virtually no side-effects being reported (except by liars online).

b)  Chinese vaccines - I would touch those with a ten-foot (meter?) pole.  Worldwide experience show they don't work very well at all.  China just doesn't have our technology base & manufacturing to rely upon.  See below.

c)  Obama pandemics - a "pandemic" is NOT a worldwide outbreak - CDC's definition is Pandemic refers to an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents, usually affecting a large number of people.  Obama had numerous pandemics to deal with including Ebola in West Africa, H1N1 Swine Flu, and HIV Aids.  They had their problems (depleted the Strategic National Stockpile supplies during H1N1 and didn't restock it, which was crushing for COVID-19), but he also didn't dismantle the White House ability to respond to public health emergencies as Trump did. 

d) White House Actions during Trump Administration:  on page 132 of Bolton's book "The Room Where It Happened," he says: 

Other criticisms of the Administration, however, were frivolous. One such complaint targeted an aspect of the

general streamlining of NSC staffing that I conducted in my first months at the White House. 


To reduce duplication and overlap, and enhance coordination and efficiency, it made good management sense to shift the responsibilities of the directorate dealing with global health and biodefense into the existing directorate dealing with weapons ofmass destruction (biological, chemical and nuclear). 


The characteristics of bioweapons’ attacks and pandemics can have much in common, and the medical and public-health expertise required to deal with both threats went hand in hand. 


.....Bolton doesn't know what he's talking about.  The only characteristic that public health pandemic response and WMD have is infectious agents.  Pandemics are natural events that are made better or worse by political acts, whereas WMD and bioterrorism are manmade events that are only political/criminal/military in nature.  Because of the consolidation of resources, COVID-19 was not observed early on due to loss of personnel and resources in the White House.


Have fun, I'll check back someday, Chuck 


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/22/business/economy/china-vaccines-covid-outbreak.html

Mongolia promised its people a “Covid-free summer.” Bahrain said there would be a “return to normal life.” The tiny island nation of the Seychelles aimed to jump-start its economy.

All three put their faith, at least in part, in easily accessible Chinese-made vaccines, which would allow them to roll out ambitious inoculation programs when much of the world was going without.

But instead of freedom from the coronavirus, all three countries are now battling a surge in infections.

China kicked off its vaccine diplomacy campaign last year by pledging to provide a shot that would be safe and effective at preventing severe cases of Covid-19. Less certain at the time was how successful it and other vaccines would be at curbing transmission.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nzdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2021 at 6:30pm

Extremist  views on either side of any debate should be discarded immediately. 

Calling for leper colonys for healthy, unaltered fellow humans is downright demonic in my humble opinion.

History will recall persons calling for these types of inhumane, unnecessary  treatments of their neighbours and fellows with the deserved disgust.

Dr. John campbell has put up on youtube a video discussing the current state of play regarding the omicron situation.

It is clear and concise and will give you hope.

Please take the time to view his recording before commenting further.

prepare for the worst,hope for the best.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2021 at 6:37pm






AI we all know by now your  antivax,your choice.....

You are very very boring......πŸ₯±πŸ₯±πŸ₯±

Take care all πŸ˜·πŸ˜‰πŸ’‰


Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nzdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 11 2021 at 7:09pm

Thank you carbon, 

Im a numbers man.

Currently, i have zero chance of vax injury.

Currently, i have an 0.3 chance of dying of covid.

I think that those numbers are excellent numbers within the current situation.

You'll need to forgive me for the boring posts, im dry on dad jokes for the meantime.

Good health to you friend.

prepare for the worst,hope for the best.
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