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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

How do we know when ?
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euroforce View Drop Down
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    Posted: April 01 2006 at 11:36am
Hi , how do we know when a pandemic is out ?

A simple question but the answer is not so simple , mild flu cases can be related to H5N1. Some governments may not want to tell the truth.

People can have the virus without showing signs...

Will it be too late when we find out ?

I have had a sore throat for weeks now, could this be related to something ? Many people seem ill but arent really , they just look and sound a bit ill , they cough.

I am worried that despite our best efforts and prepping its all for nothing , if this thing evolves to what we fear it could hit like a lightning bolt from a clear sky.

Humanity will survive but not as we know it today and maybe thats a good thing.

People dont seem to know anything about this , they think the government will come up with at solution in the last minute.
People dont know that bird droppings can contain virus and so on.

I this country where i live we have found 14 dead birds in only a few weeks , all had the H5N1 virus, contamination zones have been established but the locel communities have not been informed of what to do or not to do. Vehicles exiting thew zones are not checked or decontaminated at all. our neighbouring countries have found mammels  dead from H5N1 .

What are your views and thoughts ? will we actually have time to act if/when this thing gets real.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2006 at 11:54am
Where do you live? Do you have allergies (the sore throat)? How close were the dead birds to you? How were the birds handled? Did you touch the birds?
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First we must all keep in contact and second we have to make an educatd guess. More countires covered the better.
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euroforce View Drop Down
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I live in Denmark, No dead birds have been found in the area where i live yet, The dead birds have been found in other parts of my country.  I have no idea why the sore throat seems to never go away.

I talked to my grandmother today , she told me that her dad was very sick in 1918, see was not born yet then but she was told by her mother who is not among us any more , but she actually had something to say about the pandemic in 1918 i found that very interesting that i could get a litlle bit of info on the 1918 pandemic from her.  She did not know alot about the current situation and i did not want to alarm her too much (she is very old)


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Siameselade View Drop Down
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You know maybe it's good news, maybe the virus isn't as bad as we thought it was going to be? I'd take a sore throat any day, over what may be coming. IMO
Wouldn't that be something, it's already here, and is not doing much damage,  not that I expect that to be true, but it's a thought
Siam
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Originally posted by euroforce euroforce wrote:

Hi , how do we know when a pandemic is out ?

A simple question but the answer is not so simple , mild flu cases can be related to H5N1. Some governments may not want to tell the truth.

People can have the virus without showing signs...

Will it be too late when we find out ?

I have had a sore throat for weeks now, could this be related to something ? Many people seem ill but arent really , they just look and sound a bit ill , they cough.

I am worried that despite our best efforts and prepping its all for nothing , if this thing evolves to what we fear it could hit like a lightning bolt from a clear sky.

Humanity will survive but not as we know it today and maybe thats a good thing.

People dont seem to know anything about this , they think the government will come up with at solution in the last minute.
People dont know that bird droppings can contain virus and so on.

I this country where i live we have found 14 dead birds in only a few weeks , all had the H5N1 virus, contamination zones have been established but the locel communities have not been informed of what to do or not to do. Vehicles exiting thew zones are not checked or decontaminated at all. our neighbouring countries have found mammels  dead from H5N1 .

What are your views and thoughts ? will we actually have time to act if/when this thing gets real.


 
Even if you get sick with BF, it doesn't mean your prepping is for naught.  If the fatality rate of BF is in the 5% range, you are still much more likely to survive BF than to survive without food and water while society is paralyzed.  Prep.  If you get sick and make it, you will still need to eat and drink.
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I don't honestly know I am hoping that Our Gov'ts will step up and tell us, but I have grave doubts that they will.   We should watch for news casts of people with mystery illness flooding local hospitals. Like we should see LA Hospitals then maybe NY's etc.
Siam
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Hi everyone,

It seems to me that the virulance of AI is the problem.  I have heard of symptoms and death in South Asia within 2 days.  How do you prepare for that? 

Luckily, we are still in the phase of this where there is no pandemic in humans.  I am tracking the WHO listing of illness and death in humans.  I'll keep everyone posted as soon as things change.  The WHO website hasn't updated the cumulative totals with the Egyptian deaths yet.  Probably because of the weekend.

Sorry to do this to everyone, but the mortality rate as reported by WHO is now at 57%.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2006_03_24/en/index.html
Don't be afraid to be afraid; it keeps you on your toes.
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EMS and ER staff will be the junior epidemilogists on this one.  They'll see the patterns first as they are the point of contact for emergency patient care.  And by the time that they can establish a pattern----they will have already become contaminated.  I've spent most of today putting together a FD Pandemic Flu Plan, using the pandemicflu.gov website for EMS/Healthcare facilities.  I did find a few suprises in the plan that will affect the culture of doing business in EMS.
Credibility is like virginity, once it is gone- it is gone forever.
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Euroforce

First, go to the doctor! It is not avian flu as you have had a sore throat for a while, but it may be a bacterial infection or something serious.

If H5N1 goes H2H, you will know. Take my word on this, a flu pandemic will be one of the most covered stories in history. I've read posts about a "news blackout", well it would be impossible (not that the current US gov would not try, or any for that matter). The saturation of news via sat, internet, cable, radio, ect. is too vast to shut down. So, just pay attention.

The virus in it's current form is not easily transmittable. I would not go scraping bird sh*t off my windows, or taking home a sick bird, so use caution not paranoia.
It's always the lowest common denominator.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2006 at 6:48pm
Good call CitizenBlue,
 
Euro - You'll know if the virus starts to pass easily from human to human (H2H) because the press will cover it 24/7.
 
You are right, there can be mild forms of an H5 infection. The people who have died to this point had close contact with infected birds. They developed regular flu symptoms at first and then developed severe symptoms and most died in a few days even with intensive care.
 
Best bet it to isolate yourself from sick folks when it does go H2H.
 
Prep-On
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carpenter, is that the light house at witefish point?
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Ceasar,
 
No idea,  I just picked an avatar from the list..  I like lighthouses, though.
Don't be afraid to be afraid; it keeps you on your toes.
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Originally posted by CitizenBlue CitizenBlue wrote:

Euroforce

First, go to the doctor! It is not avian flu as you have had a sore throat for a while, but it may be a bacterial infection or something serious.

If H5N1 goes H2H, you will know. Take my word on this, a flu pandemic will be one of the most covered stories in history. I've read posts about a "news blackout", well it would be impossible (not that the current US gov would not try, or any for that matter). The saturation of news via sat, internet, cable, radio, ect. is too vast to shut down. So, just pay attention.

The virus in it's current form is not easily transmittable. I would not go scraping bird sh*t off my windows, or taking home a sick bird, so use caution not paranoia.
 
First off...though a doctor is helpful...not all doctors help.
 So first find a person who you can trust to help you should your condition deteriorate and then seek out whatever medical care you feel you need.  Make sure someone knows you have been sick so they check on you regularly. Do not go it alone. I know someone who had a sore throat for several days / to a week in duration who was assessed by a doctor and died shortly after this of an influenza strain in Japan iin 2005.
Secondly, I really wish people on the internet would not diagnose or come close to trying to do so because you might be wrong with the advice your giving.
Lastly,  how will we know when there is a pandemic?..well we might hear it in the news 24/7 after it is full blown but I am not so sure we will see it immediately in the news when TSHTF -they will scramble first to try to keep it hush hush until they figure out how to try and lessen the damage. Governments will panic first, not the people , because the people will be the last to know just how serious it really is. The panic by the people will be only the aftermath of the governments panic to contain the disease and their failure to do so. IMHO
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I have alot of people on my msn messenger list, and a few of these are writing that they are sick after their msn name , 3 players on a football team had to cancel because of flu symptoms , the trainer said in the news that this had never happend before... small things yes , could be something could be nothing..... carpenters and others like them have now been allowed to not work in areas with alot of bird poop , the union has allowed this ... things are changing , is the virus changing too ?




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