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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Hubei Adds 15,000 New Cases on Data Revision: Viru

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Albert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Hubei Adds 15,000 New Cases on Data Revision: Viru
    Posted: February 12 2020 at 4:55pm


I feel bad for China, but for whatever the reason, the virus is clearly prone to the Chinese. Maybe it was a bio-lab conspiracy theory as people are saying lol, who knows, but whatever the case, not a chance it's airborne / aerosol outside of China. Does it make sense to you all that 50,000 cases in China, and not one cluster of cases outside of China? Sure the imported cases, and get it. On the cruise ship, mostly caucasion with passengers, yet the Asian infection rate was 10 fold? I'm not claiming population control, but it makes no sense to me. China can spray the streets all day long for all I care, but it is clearly sticking to China. H7N9 did the exact same thing. Sorry folks, not trusting communist China.


Hubei Adds 15,000 New Cases on Data Revision: Virus Update



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-12/u-s-disease-team-still-in-limbo-deaths-at-1-115-virus-update?srnd=premium-asia&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=business&utm_source=facebook&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&fbclid=IwAR0F0zenOffyJyxIV1shhAFKoX6oz1uC1qPfUy6cUooiQ04siR2kdg8mDnI&fbclid=IwAR0LthuXnYNM8H4hewr9q5nzGTswIT1067mv6iyU5cPSfc1rijX-3Lv_VbY
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pheasant View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2020 at 6:04pm
I hope your correct.

The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2020 at 6:22pm
Why would you kill your own people? Just can't imagine any country doing that.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2020 at 6:23pm
Venezuela does - they disarmed them and now shoots them
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Flubergasted Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2020 at 6:46pm
They have some demographic problems for sure. The one child policy created a huge burden on younger generations left to care for their elders. If you are young and have two elderly parents to take care of, do you want to add to your problems by having children? Your productivity will definitely suffer.

We also have a crisis looming in which we will have to figure out how to care for baby boomers as they age. It will be hard enough to care for the ones who prepared financially, due to lack of capacity in expensive nursing homes. What will we do for the ones who did not prepare?

I dunno. Just spit-balling.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2020 at 8:23pm
A couple explanations that I can see...

Maybe the outbreak started much earlier than most think. Perhaps the rest of the world is still experiencing what China did back in November or maybe even October. Maybe in 2 or 3 months it will be just as wide spread Outside of China than it is is there.

Maybe the theory I voiced awhile back about Fecal-Oral route of infection has some validity.   However if that is true, we all know many other places have just as bad or worse hygiene practices so we will see when it hits those places.

Or thirdly, perhaps CoVid19 is interacting with some other unknown epidemic.    Maybe both epidemics are co current, or perhaps an earlier epidemic predisposed the Chinese people to have a particularly bad time with CoVid19.

Lastly, maybe CoVid19 needs very particular climate/weather to proliferate.   China was just unlucky.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2020 at 8:33pm
Here's my two penneth worth:
Either:
1. China has decided to kill off it's old folks due to the enormous demographic time bomb that is going off and they just can finance, and at the same time take out all the younger people who have underlying health problems and are also a burden on society
or
2. This disease is targeting Asia people somehow
or, my personal favourite,
3. That the incubation period is much longer than previously thought and in the next two weeks we'll see an explosion of cases outside China.

Whilst I like number 1, I find it hard to believe as this type of corona virus is very difficult, if not totally impossible to create a vaccine for it as it's an unstable and fast mutating RSA virus and no government that's made up of old men is going to unleash it without being fully vaccinated themselves first.
You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2020 at 8:33pm
I think we are see the 14 day incubation period...

In action.....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2020 at 8:50pm
Another theory I have... maybe the virus didn't originate in Wuhan at all.   Maybe the rest of the world already had a very mild outbreak that wasn't noticed. Wuhan just happened to be where the second wave more severe outbreak started(like the Spanish flu).   For the time being maybe there is herd immunity in most of the world.   At least for now...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2020 at 9:35pm
Originally posted by DeepThinker DeepThinker wrote:

Another theory I have... maybe the virus didn't originate in Wuhan at all.   Maybe the rest of the world already had a very mild outbreak that wasn't noticed. Wuhan just happened to be where the second wave more severe outbreak started(like the Spanish flu).   For the time being maybe there is herd immunity in most of the world.   At least for now...


I would not be surprised if this were true. In my area, a relatively small town, there has been a month-long lower respiratory bug going around. Except, most have no fever, so it's not a fit that way. Unless that is part of the 'mild' part. The part that does match is the upper respiratory symptoms suddenly coming in about a week or two into it.   

The general consensus around town is it was the worst cough anyone has ever had.
And *not* the flu. Doctors/pharmacy staff/friends/acquaintances - all saying the same thing. So who knows? Certainly W.H.O. doesn't know, or if they do they're not telling us.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2020 at 3:25am
Me neither! I wish I had thought of that.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2020 at 7:26am
Albert its not population control. Very interesting thought however and Xi does have that doctor evil thing going on...

I think its explainable and makes perfect sense in my head. I'll try and explain.. (after a few beers)

Firstly the numbers in China are huge. China isn't counting them. Maybe a million infected, or more. There is a virtual sea of asymptomatic cases and low viral load mild cases. Many with cold like symptoms getting about. They are uncounted and don't make up the stats.

Then there is the group of people who get admitted to hospital sick but not going to die. They are counted. There is a group who go to ICU on the edge and some die. (they are counted too)

Hence the scary CFR and fear created.

So

When this originally hit the media everyone panicked and anyone coming out of Wuhan was tested. Even the asymptomatic cases were tested and picked up. This is evident with the case descriptions of asymptomatic cases and mild symptoms. Also the very low CFR outside China.

last i checked it was 1 death for 319 ill

Similar story for the cruise ships. One person infected and is very sick. The captain says test the person for Corona and bingo. We have a winner. Then the whole ship is locked down and everyone is tested. Again many asymptomatic and Low CFR

I dont know why, but we aren't being told about the uncounted in China. Maybe everyone is just towing the line. Or maybe the authorities think the true numbers would blow peoples minds.

Its so obvious to me that this virus is a friggen powderpuff and has a very low CFR around 0.3%. Is basically the flu. It has huge numbers of asymptomatic cases and this is spreading every where.

It is starting to crop up in Hong Kong and Singapore.

I'm confident this is spreading in the west just no one sick enough to go to hospital yet and get tested. There will eventually be cases pop up.

But. Dont worry its a powderpuff..   :)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2020 at 7:34am
A possible explanation floating around with regard to why it infects Asians the most is based on the ACE2 receptors in the lungs, of which the Asians have twice as many of.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2020 at 7:35am
I really hope you're right Cobber!

However, while I want to believe, I could counter your argument a number of ways. Here's one of many:

How do you explain the number of serious cases that have obviously overwhelmed Chinese hospitals and health care in Wuhan and nearby towns?

If it's a powderpuff flu, why that? Does the flu overwhelm a region's hospitals like that where people become desperate and are dying in hospitals (even by low "official" counts)?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2020 at 10:12am
I hope that you are right cobber, however. I think these death figures are bogus. It is much much higher. You are looking at the Hubei figures. CCP will give the illusion of control at any cost. Why haven't we heard about the cases outside if Hubei ?.. 5 million people left Wuhan before the quarantine . We know that the incubation period is up to 14 days and at least one study said 24 days. It is very clear that we don't know the number of infected nor the real death toll. I am thinking about this and i am afraid that the real story is not going to told nor is level of deceit will ever come to light.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2020 at 12:00pm
Originally posted by KiminNM KiminNM wrote:



I would not be surprised if this were true. In my area, a relatively small town, there has been a month-long lower respiratory bug going around. Except, most have no fever, so it's not a fit that way. Unless that is part of the 'mild' part. The part that does match is the upper respiratory symptoms suddenly coming in about a week or two into it.   

The general consensus around town is it was the worst cough anyone has ever had.


Here in NZ we are 6 months ahead of you, seasonally speaking. It's summer here now and on June 1st we head into winter. Traditionally the Northern hemisphere looks at the flus circulating down here and prepares for them to strike the following winter. Well last year we had a terrible cough here. Almost everyone I know got it. It lasted for ages and people were very tired for a few weeks after it passed.
You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2020 at 12:05pm
Ok, just my opinion, but i feel it's too soon and we haven't gotten into the meat of the outbreak yet.

   The incubation times, the speed of spread, and late onset of serious disease is messing with the formulas.

   Seems that we are very early in this. It really started (on the radar) or good seeding started around early to mid January.

   So if you take 1/20 as a reasonable start time to today that's just 23 days....if incubation is stated as 14 days max (other reports say longer) then wouldn't we be less than two full cycles of initial infection to severe.

   Add to the above the issue of cases becoming severe late, very late, like 10-15 days in?....put another way person gets infected, symptoms manifest around 10-14 days...said person ends up in hospital maybe 4-8 days later...becomes severe 1-7 days after that and critical for how long?

   all of the above is very reasonable conclusion from the current info.

   So that gives us an infected person from day 1 up to 30 days later to a severe case including death....there are undoubtedly people in ICU from back in January still.

   During the last WHO press conference they mentioned the backlog of patients in critical, and said be prepared for increased deaths as some are taken off support.....

   We are only 30 days or so into this (feels like 6 months). Not enough time has passed for a true cyclical scientific measure...just hypothesis and hope from what I see....but ,again that's just how i see it.
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Thorne! Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2020 at 12:07pm
It is summer in Singapore, just saying. Daytime highs in the low 90s, night time lows in the mid-70s.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2020 at 6:37pm
I read a few journal reports on Ace2. I'm not disagreeing with you, there's probably some element of receptor bias, but i believe its more a case of hidden numbers and unhygienic sanitation standards.

I've been to China many times and I'm always amazed at how disgusting the hygiene is. There's always something new which shocks me.

Spitting everywhere. I'm eating at a restaurant, guy across spits on the floor. Normal

Picking their noses. Everyone cleans house.

$hitting in the street. Literally hang your bum over the gutter and doing a poo in the street.

Squat toilets, no toilet paper. A bucket of water for everyone to dip their hands into and splash away.

Fanta bottles with red cordial sold as genuine fanta. Kids fill them up in the river and sell them on the street.

Number one... The worst. I saw a guy selling raw meat un-refrigerated spread over a table 30 degrees in direct sunlight. His little stall was suspended over an open sewer.


I kinda get how these things takeoff in China.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2020 at 10:16pm
I see that WHO has refused to add these new cases to the data in their situation reports because they do not conform to the "Case classifications are based on WHO case definitions for COVID-19."

WHO definition page

Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2020 at 11:23pm
I think WHO needs their acronym changed... WTH, WTF...any other suggestions?
If it's to be - it's up to me!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 14 2020 at 12:20am
No, that's about says it all lol
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 14 2020 at 4:08am
I wish the emojis were working, I would give that a standing ovation.

Technobrat says WSO (world suicide organisation) or KUA (kill us all). For myself, FWRB (fiddle while Rome burns).
ERCD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 14 2020 at 5:10am
I think it is going to ne a long hard slog so the Chinese have no idea how long this will last or how long it will take to reduce its population. I do think it is looking like a bio weapon, accidently released. Remember the Chinese were victims of Japanese germ warfare in WW2. CCP is already stressed by the numbers of older people in china.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 14 2020 at 8:47am
In another thread Carbon said:

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

W.H.O.knows...lol
How about that for a new name?
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