Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Hubei-18% CFR estimate; Global 1% CFR estimate. |
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Pandemic
Adviser Group Joined: January 31 2020 Location: UK Status: Offline Points: 2725 |
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Posted: February 14 2020 at 3:17am |
Hubei-18% CFR estimate; Global 1% CFR estimate.
From London Imperial College report 4. Would it be reasonable to summise that the disparity in % reflects the fact that the health care system in Hubei was swamped ?. This scenario could affect any health care system. The fact that many people become very ill, compared to seasonal flu is obvious. Seasonal flu CFR, less than 0.1% COVOD 19 - 1% estimate. |
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cobber
Admin Group Joined: August 13 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6035 |
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Reports are that 95% of patients coming to hospitals in China are being turned away.
The Wuflu CFR is approximately 0.3% |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Wuflu! Yeah!
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Little House
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 13 2020 Location: Ohio Status: Offline Points: 1910 |
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I do believe the 0.3% number is coming from number of heath workers who got sick and those who died. Remember that these would be relatively healthy people and relatively young people. (Most 80 year old people are not health care workers.) I think that the number is useful but we need to keep it in context.
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