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If Fossil fuels were gone tommrow...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2019 at 4:13pm
It's only the start, if you believe the modeling the planet is in for a rough ride,

One things for sure the planet will still be here, we humans will still be here, but it won't be anything like the life we lead now......

I worry about my grandchildren ,

It will 2070 when the oldest is my age....

I'll be long gone......
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2019 at 4:31pm
Modeling, hum..............

I did a course in modeling a year or so ago ('hardest one I ever took) and the very first lesson included the phrase: "all models are wrong." The explanation of that was very interesting. All models ARE wrong, but those using no models arrive at conclusions even further from the truth. Those people using several different models and combining the results got closest to predicting the correct outcomes (as high as 95% accruacy sometimes!).

Climate change modellers are each using different models and arriving at similar conclusions. This suggests that they are at least on the right track. What worries me about the mathematics used, is that each model seems to be based on different axioms. Each leaves out sections of known science. (for instance, CO2 models incorporate methane but normally ignore the methane from methane hydrates and the sea level rise calculators do not usually include isostatic readjustment.) This and the fact that most individually use only one model, suggests that the deleterious effects of climate change could be considerably worse than current predictions.

Still, the models keep improving so they may end up accurate soon.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2019 at 7:18pm
I wish there was a way but I would bet good money that in 5 years it will obvious the planet is cooling and not warming.

The Sun is going quiet, so the next couple decades don't look good for warming.   The equinox is progressing so the next few hundred years to the next couple thousand years don't look good either.

Maybe global warming will save us from the Ice Age that is now over due.   I sure hope so but I doubt it.
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Crash! 10 Biggest Impact Craters on Earth
By Becky Oskin 28 April 2014

    

Ancient scars

An artist’s concept of the giant asteroid or comet plunging into what is now Chesapeake Bay 35 million years ago.
(Image: © Science)
Whether they're the size of a molehill or a mountain, meteorite impacts are one of the most destructive forces in the solar system. Here on Earth, flying space debris triggered mass extinctions, but the same deadly asteroids might also have delivered the seeds of life soon after Earth was born. The effects of asteroid impacts linger for billions of years. Here are the 10 biggest impact craters known, from largest to smallest.

Vredefort crater


In the abraded heart of South Africa's Vredefort impact crater lurk striking green-black rocks, some of the only remnants of a magma sea that once filled the gaping crater.
(Image: © NASA)
The oldest impact crater on Earth is also the largest. Vredefort crater in South Africa, also called the Vredefort Dome, was originally 185 miles (300 kilometers) across, scientists estimate. A meteorite or asteroid bigger than South Africa's Table Mountain blasted out the giant crater 2.02 billion years ago.

Sudbury crater
Sudbury crater
(Image: © NASA)
Sudbury crater in Ontario, Canada, clocks in at 81 miles (130 km) wide and 1.85 billion years old, close in age and size to Vredefort crater in South Africa. The original crater is believed to have sprawled 160 miles (260 km). Rock fragments from the impact have been found in Minnesota, over 500 miles (800 km) away.

Chicxulub crater
Chicxulub crater
(Image: © LPI)
Chicxulub crater's discovery clinched what was once a wild theory: that a meteor impact wiped out the dinosaurs. A thin layer of exotic iridium metal from a meteor impact had been detected worldwide at Cretaceous mass extinction before Chicxulub was found. Now, the meteorite that carved the Chicxulub crater in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is widely thought to have caused or greatly contributed to the mass extinction at the end of the Cretaceous 65 million years ago, including the end of the dinosaurs. Some scientists think Chicxulub's original crater may have been bigger than Sudbury crater in Ontario. Estimates of its original diameter range up to 150 miles (240 km) in diameter, and its current size is 93 miles (150 km).

Popigai crater
Popigai crater
(Image: © NASA)
A rare find is buried in Russia's Popigai crater: diamonds. Some 35 million years ago, a meteorite crashed into carbon-rich graphite rock deposits in Siberia, and the impact's immense pressures and temperatures converted the carbon into diamonds. The crater is 62 miles (100 km) wide and holds massive diamond reserves, according to the Russian government.

Manicouagan crater
Manicouagan crater
(Image: © Landsat)
Our first lake-filled crater, Manicouagan in Quebec is one the largest and best-preserved crater on the planet. The 62-mile-wide (100 km) crater is 214 million years old.

Acraman crater
Acraman crater
(Image: © NASA Earth Observatory)
Lake Acraman fills this round impact crater, excavated 580 million years ago in South Australia. The crater measures 56 miles (90 kilometers) in diameter. Impact ejecta from the crater can be found in the Flinders Range 185 miles (300 km) to the east, among rocks with fossils of the first complex life forms on Earth.

Chesapeake Bay crater
Chesapeake Bay crater
(Image: © WHOI/USGS)
Buried under seafloor muds, Chesapeake Bay Crater offshore of Virginia is an estimated 35 million years old. The curving western shoreline of Chesapeake Bay takes its shape from the 53-mile-wide (85 km) marine crater. A drilling core revealed the first hints that a large impact crater was buried beneath the bay in 1983, when the core brought up an 8-inch-thick (20 centimeters) layer of impact ejecta.

Morokweng crater
Morokweng meteorite
(Image: © J.Hills/Science Museum London)
Morokweng Crater is buried beneath South Africa's Kalahari Desert: Geologists discovered it through remote sensing surveys. But scientists got a surprise when they drilled into the crater looking for rock samples to confirm the impact. The remains of the meteorite that created this crater were still in its depth. The drill brought back a 10-inch (25 centimeter) fragment of the original meteorite from about 842 yards (770 meters) below the surface. Morokweng formed 145 million years ago and is 44 miles (70 km) wide.

Kara crater
Kara crater
(Image: © NASA Earth Observatory.)
Kara crater is a 70.3-million-year-old eroded crater exposed in Russia's Yugorsky Peninsula. Researchers think the 40-mile-wide (65 km) crater was once more than 75 miles (120 km) in diameter.

Beaverhead crater
Beaverhead crater
(Image: © USDA)
This 600-million-year-old crater spans Montana and Idaho and is the second-largest impact crater in the United States. Little remains at the surface of the 37-mile-wide (60 km) crater, which wasn't discovered until the 1990s. That's when shatter cones — cone-shaped, violently-shocked rock — were found in Beaverhead in southwestern Montana. The crater is centered in Challis, Idaho.

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12 Monkeys...............
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2019 at 9:56pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2019 at 10:41pm
carbon being Australian... what do you think about the theory that the some time in ancient times 3/4 of the continent was wiped out by some catastrophe? I guess there is even a legend of an ancient war... something comparable to the veda texts from India?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2019 at 1:45am
Not sure about that,but I do know that long ago in Australias past the center of Australia was fertile and green,

But when Papua New Guinea emerged from the oceans due to volcanic activity,pushing their Highlands high in the air,

That changed the weather patterns ,hence the center of Australia is bone dry desert,

We are a vast country, but the habital areas are small, I live in the most isolated city in the world.....
Love it.....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2019 at 9:29am
Originally posted by DeepThinker DeepThinker wrote:

Most of the CO2 we produce is actually absorbed in "the system".   Only a tiny amount stays in the atmosphere.   So what that tells me... without us the world would be running a carbon deficit, and we could see a catastrophic CO2 free world (or at least dangerously low levels).

If I am doing my math right... we should only have to slow down a bit for Mother Nature to catch up to us.   She is an incredible carbon sink.   You guys were fussing about nitrogen earlier in the thread... but the other super important molecule for them is CO2.   
That is if our goal is to be CO2 nuetral... but I don't even know if that is what our goal should be.   CO2 is not pollution. It is plant food! However f you want to fight pollution I am all in!


The oceans are absorbing vast amounts of CO2 - but it's increasing it's acidity at an alarming and wreaking havoc on organisms that build skeletons or shells of calcium carbonate. I suspect that the sea life that was thriving at the pH of just a few years ago would argue with your estimate of just how high carbon levels in the environment should be. That whole "CO2 is plant food" thing is nothing more than a product of lobbying by industries that cause it, and paid shills like Marc Morano.





"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Yes, we absolutely can change the composition of the atmosphere, increase temperatures by capturing more solar radiation, and change the weather. We live in a thin layer of gas clinging to the surface of the planet that is currently being loaded up with phenomenal amounts of greenhouse gases each year. This goldfish bowl is not big enough for all of us to be pooping in it at that rate without consequences.




I'll post this image again because it bears repeating. It represents all the liquid water (in green) and air (in pink) on Earth. I agree with Carbon - we need to take this much more seriously for the sake of future generations.






"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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BBC News - Climate change: Big lifestyle changes are the only answer
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-49997755
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The muck that’s been accumulating at the bottom of this lake for 20,000 years is like a climate time capsule. Christopher R. Moore, CC BY-ND
New evidence that an extraterrestrial collision 12,800 years ago triggered an abrupt climate change for Earth
Christopher R. Moore, University of South Carolina
October 22, 2019 5.46am EDT
What kicked off the Earth’s rapid cooling 12,800 years ago?

In the space of just a couple of years, average temperatures abruptly dropped, resulting in temperatures as much as 14 degrees Fahrenheit cooler in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere. If a drop like that happened today, it would mean the average temperature of Miami Beach would quickly change to that of current Montreal, Canada. Layers of ice in Greenland show that this cool period in the Northern Hemisphere lasted about 1,400 years.

This climate event, called the Younger Dryas by scientists, marked the beginning of a decline in ice-age megafauna, such as mammoth and mastodon, eventually leading to extinction of more than 35 genera of animals across North America. Although disputed, some research suggests that Younger Dryas environmental changes led to a population decline among the Native Americans known for their distinctive Clovis spear points.

Conventional geologic wisdom blames the Younger Dryas on the failure of glacial ice dams holding back huge lakes in central North America and the sudden, massive blast of freshwater they released into the north Atlantic. This freshwater influx shut down ocean circulation and ended up cooling the climate.

Some geologists, however, subscribe to what is called the impact hypothesis: the idea that a fragmented comet or asteroid collided with the Earth 12,800 years ago and caused this abrupt climate event. Along with disrupting the glacial ice-sheet and shutting down ocean currents, this hypothesis holds that the extraterrestrial impact also triggered an “impact winter” by setting off massive wildfires that blocked sunlight with their smoke.

The evidence is mounting that the cause of the Younger Dryas’ cooling climate came from outer space. My own recent fieldwork at a South Carolina lake that has been around for at least 20,000 years adds to the growing pile of evidence.

A collision from space would leave its mark on Earth. Vadim Sadovski/Shutterstock.com
What would an Earth impact leave behind?
Around the globe, scientists analyzing ocean, lake, terrestrial and ice core records have identified large peaks in particles associated with burning, such as charcoal and soot, right at the time the Younger Dryas kicked in. These would be natural results of the cataclysmic wildfires you would expect to see in the wake of Earth taking an extraterrestrial hit. As much as 10% of global forests and grasslands may have burned at this time.

Looking for more clues, researchers have pored through the widely distributed Younger Dryas Boundary stratigraphic layer. That’s a distinctive layer of sediments laid down over a given period of time by processes like large floods or movement of sediment by wind or water. If you imagine the surface of the Earth as like a cake, the Younger Dryas Boundary is the layer that was frosted onto its surface 12,800 years ago, subsequently covered by other layers over the millennia.

In the last few years, scientists have found a variety of exotic impact-related materials in the Younger Dryas Boundary layer all over the globe.

These include high-temperature iron and silica-rich tiny magnetic spheres, nanodiamonds, soot, high-temperature melt-glass, and elevated concentrations of nickel, osmium, iridium and platinum.

While many studies have provided evidence supporting the Younger Dryas impact, others have failed to replicate evidence. Some have suggested that materials such as microspherules and nanodiamonds can be formed by other processes and do not require the impact of a comet or asteroid.

White Pond has been part of this landscape for 20,000 years or more. Christopher R. Moore
A view of 12,800 years ago from White Pond
In the southeastern United States, there are no ice cores to turn to in the quest for ancient climate data. Instead, geologists and archaeologists like me can look to natural lakes. They accumulate sediments over time, preserving layer by layer a record of past climate and environmental conditions.

White Pond is one such natural lake, situated in southern Kershaw County, South Carolina. It covers nearly 26 hectares and is generally shallow, less than 2 meters even at its deepest portions. Within the lake itself, peat and organic-rich mud and silt deposits upwards of 6-meters thick have accumulated at least since the peak of the last ice age more than 20,000 years ago.

Collecting sediment cores from White Pond in 2016. Christopher R. Moore
So in 2016, my colleagues and I extracted sediment from the bottom of White Pond. Using 4-meter-long tubes, we were able to preserve the order and integrity of the many sediment layers that have accumulated over the eons.

The long sediment cores are cut in half in order to extract samples for analysis. Christopher R. Moore
Based on preserved seeds and wood charcoal that we radiocarbon dated, my team determined there was about a 10-centimeter thick layer that dated to the Younger Dryas Boundary, from between 12,835 and 12,735 years ago. That is where we concentrated our hunt for evidence of an extraterrestrial impact.

We were particularly looking for platinum. This dense metal is present in the Earth’s crust only at very low concentrations but is common in comets and asteroids. Previous research had identified a large “platinum anomaly” – widespread elevated levels of platinum, consistent with a global extraterrestrial impact source in Younger Dryas layers from Greenland ice cores as well as across North and South America.

Most recently, the Younger Dryas platinum anomaly has been found in South Africa. This discovery significantly extends the geographic range of the anomaly and adds support to the idea that the Younger Dryas impact was indeed a global event.

Volcanic eruptions are another possible source of platinum, but Younger Dryas Boundary sites with elevated platinum do not have other markers of large-scale volcanism.

More evidence of an extraterrestrial impact
In the White Pond samples, we did indeed find high levels of platinum. The sediments also had an unusual ratio of platinum to palladium.

Both of these rare earth elements occur naturally in very small quantities. The fact that there was so much more platinum than palladium suggests that the extra platinum came from an outside source, such as atmospheric fallout in the aftermath of an extraterrestrial impact.

My team also found a large increase in soot, indicative of large-scale regional wildfires. Additionally, the amount of fungal spores that are usually associated with the dung of large herbivores decreased in this layer compared to previous time periods, suggesting a sudden decline in ice-age megafauna in the region at this time.

Photomicrograph of <em>Sporormiella</em> – fungal spores associated with the dung of megaherbivores – from White Pond. Angelina G. Perrotti
While my colleagues and I can show that the platinum and soot anomalies and fungal spore decline all happened at the same time, we cannot prove a cause.

The data from White Pond are, however, consistent with the growing body of evidence that a comet or asteroid collision caused continent-scale environmental calamity 12,800 years ago, via vast burning and a brief impact winter. The climate change associated with the Younger Dryas, megafaunal extinctions and temporary declines or shifts in early Clovis hunter-gatherer populations in North America at this time may have their origins in space.

A White Pond sediment core is like a timeline of the stratigraphic layers. What researchers found in each layer provides hints of climate and environment at that time. Shutterstock.com/Allen West/NASA/Sedwick C (2008) PLoS Biol 6(4): e99/Martin Pate/Southeast Archaeological Center
[ Insight, in your inbox each day. You can get it with The Conversation’s email newsletter. ]

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Christopher R. Moore
Archaeologist and Special Projects Director at the Savannah River Archaeological Research Program and South Carolina Institute of Archaeology and Anthropology, University of South Carolina
Christopher R. Moore does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

University of South Carolina provides funding as a member of The Conversation US.

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