Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Immunity evading variant |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95677 |
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Posted: November 08 2021 at 12:22am |
[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latests; delta with N501Y (vaccine/immunity escape mutation) in Germany "6% and quickly growing" I read - I see it too. But what is weird, other Delta with N501Y have not taken off at all, see for example Turkey. Are there additional changes specific to this variant other than N501Y, especially in the german sequences? - this thread : DJ-Following the links in following posts. European cases going up in highly vaccinated countries do have a mix of reasons. From lack of booster vaccines and vaccinating under 18 y/o, waning immunity but it looks like Delta+ variants also play a role... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95677 |
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[url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022/status/1456717168024883201[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022/status/1456717168024883201 ; Message from AY.39 is driving growth in Belgium and the Netherlands But in Germany you have a potentially HUGE problem with the convergent evolution of B.1.617.2 carrying the N501Y mutation - as yet unclassified in GISAID/PANGO.
and Als antwoord op Mu has Nelly so maybe its just a miss-classified cluster of Mu ? Or a new re-combo of Mu & Delta. DJ-An explosion of cases, limited testing (a lot of vaccinated do not test-false safety) and then also limited screening/sequencing can cause we are missing major evolution of Delta (and even a mix of Delta & Mu...it could be introduced by a single person...) |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95677 |
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[url]https://twitter.com/SimonReiss3/status/1457149720514732036[/url] or https://twitter.com/SimonReiss3/status/1457149720514732036 ; RED FLAG S: N501Y mutation on B.1.617.2 convergent evolution spreading so fast you can't track it. Good luck -- your friend with the Time Machine @Unusual_Times PS: Shit @chrischirp @ravgup33_ravi @PeterHotez @SurajitStat @vinodscaria @swapneilparikh @DrEricDing @firefoxx66 twitter.com/UseBy2022/stat… and [url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022/status/1456717168024883201[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022/status/1456717168024883201 ; Most of those from the Netherlands are not from the RIVM, who perform the Dutch random testing. So I suspect some clusters. Mostly in Groningen en Noord-Brabant. DJ [url]https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor[/url] or https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor lots of info in Dutch...Mentioning among others increase in NL (partly outside NL-CDC) of AY.46.6, AY.39, also AY.4.2 (new UK-Delta variant...) Most of that info also on [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD NL is B.1.617 .2 (old Delta) 35%, AY.43 26%, AY.9 13%, AY.4 10%, other 6%, AY.33 5%, AY.5 2%, AY.39 2%, AY47 2%, AY46.6 1%... Some other twitters; The change of asparagine to tyrosine in the N501Y mutation allows for greater ACE2 receptor binding affinity, thereby improving viral replication in the upper airway. This mutation doesn’t affect virulence as much as the rate of transmission - Strange, some 80 samples, 4% in one week. Sudden growth out of nowhere, could be indicative of artefact.
The Usher placement is an utter mess.
So this would be multiple lineages, if these are good sequences at all... and There is a bunch of clades there, some still unproposed, one recently designated as AY.106 , i would better wait new pango designations - Als antwoord op Also one sequence in Spain Again Delta wit N501y DJ What I can make of it possibly several variants (AY.39 and a few others) may have a mutation providing better receptor binding (to ACE-2 receptor). Resulting in vaccines/natural immunity being less protective... Would explain why cases are going up [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table in countries with very high level of vaccinations (over 80% of 12 y/o+). |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Cases might be going up,but what about hospitalization,are the infections serious ,or is it more like a bad flu ? Take care all 😷😉💉 |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95677 |
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Carbon20 to answer your question; [url]https://www.dw.com/en/germany-covid-incidence-rate-jumps-to-over-200-for-first-time/a-59750534[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/germany-covid-incidence-rate-jumps-to-over-200-for-first-time/a-59750534 ; Despite the wide availability of vaccines, cases are rising across the country. On Sunday, the rate was 191.5 while a week ago, the rate was 154.8. The worst-hit regions are the eastern states of Saxony and Thuringia, followed by Bavaria. Christian Karagiannidis, scientific head of the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (DIVI), told the Augsburger Allgemeine newspaper that the number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care could double. "With an incidence of 300, we expect about 4,500 COVID patients nationwide, with wide regional variations," he warned. - Some 67% of the population — almost 56 million people — have been fully vaccinated. But the rate varies from region to region. The eastern state of Saxony, hit the hardest by the current wave, has a vaccination rate of just 57.1% while over 70% of people in the most populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia are fully vaccinated. However, vaccines have dampened the impact of the rise in cases. The number of people who have been hospitalized with an infection is fewer than four per 100,000 people in the past seven days. During the previous peak in December 2020, it was over 15. Why are teachers worried?The German teacher's association is particularly concerned about the rise of cases at schools. "There are frightening rates of infection among children and young people," teachers' association president Hans-Peter Meidinger told the Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland. "There's a great danger that we will lose control of the pandemic in schools," he added. DJ A reaction from German twitter; DJ Delta sublineage with N501Y (nickname "NellY" DJ) is about the worst that could happen and is now at $5 of German sequences?If the continues increase of the Delta sublineage would be N501Y we are in a bad situation. Hope to mis-interpretate all here... NL [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/08/health-minister-wont-rule-new-coronavirus-lockdown[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/08/health-minister-wont-rule-new-coronavirus-lockdown goes further then I expected they would go...I expected "a lockdown that would not be called a lockdown" political wordgame... So yes it is bad ! [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.39&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.39&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected if AY.39 would be the main problem (most likely "NellY-501 in many Delta+ subvariants...) then from the 48,853 sequences US would have 3%, India 2% (nov 4 numbers...). But it is widespread in 106 countries (and the mutation table does NOT show N501Y...yet) |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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DJ, thanks for your hard work on keeping us informed!! |
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CRS, DrPH
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Pixie
Admin Group Joined: June 05 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 19668 |
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A few more variants Canada page 24 |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95677 |
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Pixie, good powerpoint presentation ! Thanks ! SK/Can may see AY.25 and AY.27...problem in new AY.25.1 and a lot of people ("First Nations"-"Indian") not jumping to take 'western" vaccines....(So in communication you need to look at why people refuse a vaccine...but HCW-ers do not have time for that so maybe volunteers could pick up the communication part...). a few twitter links/stories; [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; We are in trouble. We are seeing a lot of unvaccinated children & young adults scary part is even older vaccinated people coming in very sick All their tests are negative so no one thinks they have COVID that's of the people who agree to test. They have all the COVID symptoms. DJ Test evading CoViD may be next on the list of this pandemic global disaster... [url]https://twitter.com/SimonReiss3/status/1457149720514732036[/url] or https://twitter.com/SimonReiss3/status/1457149720514732036 ; Frau . Können Sie das einordnen Ich sehe hier GISAID Daten #Delta Sublinie mit #N501Y (wirklich die Mutation die Delta sich $nicht aneignen sollte). Und lt Grafik zeigt Delta+S:N501Y bei 4% in D PS: ich frage weil mMn Sublinie mit S:N501Y in D wäre sehr schlimm DJ ,A discussion in German on N501Y mutation in Delta. With low and slow sequencing allready 4% of German positive cases... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latests; why so many deaths in Lithuania, with 64% vaxed, as in Germany ? Malaysia had a wave with 70%vaxed - It disappears. I don't know why . Tweets are being deleted. And I can't find anything on the web. - Now the numbers for the one in Germany are down to 1% or so, was it an artefact ? DJ, Twitter even by scientists/experts is NOT a science study...! They could be reacting to a "statistical over representation". One you get 5x a six throwing the dice you start wondering if someone "worked the dice"...In high numbers sometimes you may end up with "numbers giving a wrong picture"... Still it looks like N501Y mutation is in some Delta subvariants...also the twitter on people showing up with severe symptoms of CoViD (both vaccinated and unvaccinated !) but with negative testing is very alarming ! Also the news of CoViD in animals-mixed with Delta mutations and tests doing a lesser job should be a very major worry !!! Should we close all places where people come in contact with animals ? To avoid large scale further spread of CoViD/Delta in non-human hosts ? |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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The animal cross over has me very interested.......scary but interesting..... Not over by a long way...... Take care all 😷😉💉 |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95677 |
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[url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022 ; New variant lineage assigned by Pango - B.1.640. This lineage has a large number of recent sequences in France and Congo with additional sequences in Switzerland, Italy, the UK and the USA. link; [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/297[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/297 ; Description: - This has all the signs of the dreaded complete or near-complete escape variant -- R346, N394, Y449, F490, plus lots of bad NTD mutations, i.e. I would be very highly surprised if this shows less neutralization reduction than the current champion C.1.2. It really needs to be designated ASAP so that it is on people's minds and it is properly monitored, even if it eventually goes nowhere rather than being a January 2020-type situation. DJ Non-Delta (Congo/DRC) variant ??? From same twitter link ; An observation triggered by something daid & around an obsession I have with the unique & imho often misunderstood but smart take by on endemic exponential growth capping. If, when cases were going down, AY.4.2 continued to grow, is that worrying ?? and ; Yes so up and down between the tramlines until AY.4.2 takes over which seems to have continued to grow even while cases have declined. Then, well, who knows. DJ So pro-portion AY.4.2 may be increasing while other Delta subvariants are going down...See also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 for most recent overview... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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