Indonesian boy dies from bird flu; more fatalities

Good job Jhetta.

Guess we will have to wait and see on the status of the family, IF we can find a news story anywhere.

Jhetta - there are how many billion people in China?  There are how many million people in Indonesia? There are how many provinces infected with bird flu in the fowl? And how many cases are reported?

Let's put it this way. Many years ago, I followed the AIDS epidemic. At a time when they were reporting 60,000 - 80,000 cases - there were several data sources indicating an infection rate of over 3,000,000 with a large number of those individuals unaware they were infected.

During the recent mumps epidemic, I knew at least a dozen people infected with the mumps, two nieces in particular diagnosed, tested, and confirmed with mumps. Yet in the state report of cases, none of these were turned in or listed.

Presently, most of the people I have talked to are down, or have been down with "something.". A friend's family in New York, whole groups of people in New Jersey, and quite honestly, my family, as well as myself. We have learned to accept the worthless word "the flu" and "flu season" which means - we can't treat it. There is absolutely no use to sit in a waiting room full of coughing people to be told "drink plenty of liquid, take aspirin, and rest." The last time I received this advice it cost $500.

We're not running high fevers, but we have some sort of chronic intestinal thing which has been going on for months. We have been to local health, CDC, (who said it was the state's problem), a military hospital who didn't even know what a "viral panel" was and did not have even one regular staff cardiolgist or gastroenterologist. We have been waiting to see a gastroenterologist, not a PA or NC, for over a year.

So this is my point. In a time of multiple medical cutbacks - when one 79 year old is about to lose her benefits and is on a pacemaker that must be checked, another young man was cut off his medicine and died in another state, and people are being cycled through hospitals for major surgeries in a few days and then sent home, what do you think is going to happen when BF hits, if it has not already hit in a less virulent form?

If it partially attacked the immune system where you would run only a low grade fever like AIDS, and made people chronically ill, but not dying, what would be the response? In fact, since in bird form, it has been in the U.S. since 2004, and since there are whole states who do not even have the test kits or lab facilities to screen for it, how many cases will be reported?

I am inclined to think it will be like the flu epidemic in New York where everything was fine, and then there were stacks of bodies in the streets. Do you have any idea how many cases of food poisoning there are a year? Ever read Fast Food Nation?  There is rampant E-Coli and in a public swimming place (river, beach) 6-8% ill from polluted water is considered acceptable limits of contamination.  One in seven people works in Fast  Food and the meat industry. A huge chunk of that industry is poultry. A 3% variation in employement can simply mean a lot of Taco Bell's have opened up. So with all these health issues already in the mix, what are the odds Avian is going to be addressed screening wise, soon enough, before it is widespread?

The biggest problem we are going to have, is that until it goes virulent, hits fast, and kills people horribly, like a hundred other chronic health problems, it will be ignored. For how many years were people with ulcers treated in what way, while all the time there was E. Pylori causing it?  There was no need for all those surgeries, procedures, cut out stomachs, and billions of gallons of anti-acid. With our space age technology, they needed to find the germ and treat it. And for that matter,  what of the 3 viruses being investigated as the agent for irritable bowel syndrome?

Imagine the magnitude of the health industry if IBS is viral based? Not sure about these numbers but what is it - 1 in 5 people.. 1 in 7? Once in the far east a doctor was paid by how well he kept his patients, and lost money if they got sick. If a wide spectrum anti-viral which would cure most of the diseases that exist were discovered, would it ever see daylight.  Consider the economic magnitude, the impact on the health industry, doctors, insurance companies? In fact, decades ago, I had heard of a substance which dissolves cavities (dental caries)  Any aggresive work being done to truly eliminate tooth decay? A lab worker in Georgia told me 27 years ago as he was cleaning rat cages he overheard them talking of several cures for cancer. Wild stories? How does this relate to Avian?

As a child I had something nasty, went to the Navy base, and got a whomper shot of penicillin. Don't know what I had, but in a few hours, I was better. Not any more. Hospitals are crawling with strains of staph and stept.

It is a matter of priorities. If it is going to cost money, then people will sit around and decide how bad it has to be before they will act. If it is going to lose money, i.e. a drop in the economy, they will not act until people are dying in the streets. And what is worse, here is the big one, until it hits CNN or major news that we have a plague, and they are dumping bodies into mass graves in Chicago, except for us preppers, who will be considered mentally challenged, there will be a lot of nice sounding speeches on "getting ready." Then it will be said, "well, we knew it was coming."

There is absolutely no way to be sure that Tamiflu or our current line of anti-virals will touch a mutated form of Avian. Ever been in an ER during a flu epidemic, and we have had many. I have. I have worked there. What did the triage people tell people calling in. My favorite remark while sitting in an ER with over 100 people was "throw away your thermometer. Temperatures really don't mean that much.". What can be done in an ER for you, if you get virulent Avian. Well, if you are lucky, very lucky, and there are only a few cases, and you get on a respirator, and can ride it out, you might survive.

How many respirators are at an average hospital?

The government doesn't need to lie. It is kind of like in the bible when Joseph's brothers held up his coat of many colors with blood all over it and showed it to his father.  Silence can speak volumes.  But as I have said before, and read this closely. No one understands the immensity of government, health care, which has grown into a monster, and no one has any great solutions which will not send our current status quo and political balance into a tailspin. I see the situation, but were someone to come up with a miracle cure, megacorporations would fall apart.

There have been hundreds of meetings telling critical people they would be "taken care of with Tamiflu" and essentially everyone would "stay home." No words of sunshine today. It is a good thing there are forums such as this one combing the net for news on Avian. You will be the first to know, and for the many people who have contributed here, I am truly grateful.

What is the point?

Prep. Believe none of what you hear and only have of what  you see. Knowledge is power, and you can find it on the Internet if you look hard enough.

grace wrote: Hopefully this will show Indonesia how much is lacking, Medclinician. Just found it. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aaiBVjgCg.Bc&refer=asia Indonesia to Test Pandemic Flu Response in Provincial Exercises July 4 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia will stage a pandemic influenza simulation in the next two months to test how it will respond to such an emergency in the nation that accounts for the most human fatalities from bird flu in the world this year. The simulation will be carried out in a village in West Sumatra province, an urban area of West Java province and in West Kalimantan province on the border near Malaysia, Bayu Krisnamurthi, secretary of a government-appointed committee on avian and pandemic flu, said today in an interview in Jakarta.

Thanks Grace. Actually this is encouraging. It needs to be stopped in Indonesia before it has enough time to get truly infectious. It is ironic, as little attention as we give sometimes to Indonesia, China, and Hong Kong, how controlling disease in unsanitary areas effect the whole planet. It is understandable how villagers might find it hard to deal with culling and then starving. Perhaps, and lets really hope so, if it can be contained when we still can deal with it, we can buy more time to prepare and anticipate its next move and through research be ready.

I am sorry to be a fatalist... however H5N1 is so very wide spread in areas that really do not have the resources or will to control it; that I fear nothing can be done to stop it.  I am hoping that when it truly makes the jump... that its virulence will reduce.

Jhetta,

When I look at this unfolding pandemic, I realize the issue is no longer when it will hit, but where it will be the flash point of the world's  worse epidemic.  We may in fact be facing a winter of death and chaos if the epidemic hits. 

Jhetta, yes it would be interesting to me how your mother responds, my email is rodin33@juno.com  Thanks, I hope she gets better soon, it is a terrible illness to have, a lot of pain and just loss of quality of life.

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Avian influenza – situation in Indonesia – update 21

4 July 2006

The Ministry of Health in Indonesia has confirmed the country's 52nd case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus.

The case, which was fatal, occurred in a 5-year-old boy from Tulungagung district, East Java Province. The boy became ill on 8 June, was hospitalized on 14 June and died two days later on 16 June.

An investigation found a history of chicken deaths in the boy's household two weeks before symptom onset. Laboratory testing of poultry in the sub-district confirmed the presence of H5N1 in chickens. Monitoring of close contacts has detected no further cases.

Of the 52 cases confirmed to date in Indonesia, 40 have been fatal.