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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

international situation

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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    Posted: November 24 2022 at 10:50pm

DJ, 

I try to make sense of the international war/economy/politics situation. With the Ukraine war resulting in so far 10 million out of 40 million Ukrainians seeking safety-most-in Europe it should be clear it also has pandemic/healthcare links. 

Even tough I express my own opinion-I would like to stay out of pointless discussions...Other views/ideas are welcome if they have some basis...

Maybe first "political views"; Russia/Putin may be close to conservative, in some points "US republican" "UK conservatives" views...on the war opposition want MORE decisive military action...The Russian orthodox church is a major factor in Russia-wants to stay neutral-however also protect orthodoxy (against catholicism from Poland, Islam from IS-like groups in Syria, Iraq). 

The "west" claims NATO expansion was not a provocation or break of agreements...In 1990 the west made an agreement with the Soviet Union...that country ended a year later...The "rest" of the world has a different view...

Since 1972 global energy was linked to the US$...any country trying to do major energy deals outside the US=petro-$ faced a coup/regime change. NATO became more and more a tool for such a goal after 1991. 

-Present Ukraine situation/perspective

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1AQYz1x5Vc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1AQYz1x5Vc Military Summary (MS) has a good story-partially based on [url]https://www.understandingwar.org/[/url] or https://www.understandingwar.org/ 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/11/ukraine-lights-out-no-water-and-soon-no-heat-.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/11/ukraine-lights-out-no-water-and-soon-no-heat-.html (MoA)

DJ...Using refugees as a "means of pressure" is not new-it is also a war crime....However another Russian goal in striking the Ukraine electricity network is to unable all military transports. Ukraine has some diesel trains-but control over the rail network also was "out"...

MS expects Russia to redeploy its forces once again...building defense lines on the present frontlines and attacking Ukraine on a weak spot-with Ukraine being unable to move its forces in large enough numbers to make a difference. MS claims Russia may decide to take over Kiev-put another regime in control over Ukraine...(DJ arrest/kill zelensky and pro-western clique ?). 

I think MS has some points;

-building defensive positions by Russia would enable to redeploy forces -with mobilized extra forces it can change the war...

-Russia may see losses going up, this war is costly...however the main price is in lives lost...DJ-most of those lives on the pro-Russian side will be from Ukraine-Russians (Luhansk, Donetsk militia now part of the Russian army). So there is a pressure in Russia to "finish the war"...

-DJ, I think also (new) Russian allies expect Russia to "deal with the matter"....The way NATO pulled out of Afghanistan shocked countries like Saudi Arabia...Russia has to show it can win wars...

-DJ, my question is on Russia taking over Kiev-will that end the war or escalate the war even further ? 

DJ-The main reason why we are still in this war is "the west" wanted Ukraine, Georgia in NATO (Bucharest meeting of NATO 2008). I think also biden claims Putin made trump US president-so biden wants regime change in Moscow...An insane motive....

NATO "can not lose this war"...DJ-or what ? End of NATO ? End of "western dominance of the globe"? 

My fear is Russia going all out to "finish Ukraine" may bring even further western escalation...Since "we" may be running out of some weapons, NATO already has lots of "volunteers" in Ukraine (maybe one could claim NATO, Georgian forces are already fighting pro-Russian forces in Ukraine...but "in name" they are "under Kiev control" ...while Kiev is under NATO control"). 

So, if another major winter offensive by Russia in Ukraine would push NATO into further escalation what then ? 

End of part 1


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 24 2022 at 11:48pm

part 2, 

DJ-in my view-the basic conflict is between "the west-10%' and "the rest-90%"...The SCO, BRICS now see lots of countries on their waitinglist...from Nigeria, Algeria to Argentina, Nicaragua (a.o. strategic for a possible canal ?), Egypt...OPEC+ did bring global energy-more or less-under Asian control...more then 50% of the global population is living in Asia...

Western sanctions against Iran, Russia did result in more energy trade between Russia and China, India...OPEC countries buying Russian oil to export more of their own oil...Russia increasing energy stocks, refinery capacity...Diesel, Kerosine, Petrol can not be traced back to where it came from...the "west" is now buying Russian energy via Asia at a much higher price...

Just like "NATO can not lose this war" neither can BRICS, SCO "the rest" lose this war....and that may be very dangerous...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/this-site-has-been-hacked-serious-damage-done-techs-working-on-it[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/this-site-has-been-hacked-serious-damage-done-techs-working-on-it DJ-I disagree on a lot of points with HT...but he has been warning for a nuclear war for months...

How to avoid such a nuclear scenario ? 

DJ, There are some claims China did send some military/hardware to Russian forces in Ukraine...I think China has observers in both Ukraine and Syria...working with Russia..

There are much more frontlines then "just" Ukraine..

-In Syria and Iraq Türkiye is moving against the Kurds...not only the Damascus, Bagdad governments are unhappy also both the US and Russia may see it as another step in Turkish nationalistic expansionism...The Arab world would not welcome a "new Ottoman empire"...Erdogan is still in NATO to make NATO serve Turkish goals...While also Erdogan is talking with Russia, Iran...(and Iran and Saudi Arabia are coming closer...). 

-I think Russia and China may be working on "Taiwan-plans"...NOT an invasion but a blockade of sea/air routes to/from Taiwan...To force Taipei/Taiwan to "accept" some basic China-Bejing rules...a.o. acceptance of the Chinese PLA taking over the Taiwan defenses...In such an operation some small islands may see Russian/China invasions/military action...(a few of those islands now seen as part of Japan...). 

-MS mentioned a Russian(+Belarus ?) offensive in western Ukraine would risk war with NATO...border incident(claims) with Poland...DJ..."so what"? From the Russian perspective Russia is already at war with NATO...facing "thousends" of Romanian, Polish, UK, US "volunteers/advisers"....So far Russia/Putin tried to have talks, find agreements...

Some in the west fail to get an alternative for Putin may be much more agressive...an alternative for the CCP in China could also be much more hard line...One of the outcomes of the present crisis is Russia and China moving towards more totalitarian control...the hardliners are winning...

-Both China and India are main energy consumers...Russia, Saudi Arabia (and US) the major energy producers...China, India...both 1,4 billion in population....want to have a bigger part of the global cake...And the "west" will not provide that bigger part...

A part of this global war has to do with economy, currencies, energy trade...DJ-We-the west-still can get energy from other countries then Russia (however Russia may replace the export by its energy products...so "we buy LNG from China" -China is buying LNG from Russia...Again, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia are importing (cheap) Russian energy to increase export of their own energy at higher prices to the west...)

Since the basic conflict is "west against the rest"; the west trying to dominate the globe...China, India, Brasil/Latin America, Africa, Asia more and more may unite...They may choose THIS WINTER !!!! to stop export of energy to the west...Because they disagree with the western agenda...

The west did keep most of the rest poor...(Even the right wing PM of Italy attacked France over this...the main reason African refugees end up in Italy is western trade...). The real way out of poverty for the rest is NOT in trying to make "deals" with the west...that did not work since de-colonisation in the 60's and 70's...The west is neo-colonialist..replacing western rule by elite pro-western rule.."false independence"...

The SCO, BRICS (etc) promis "global fair trade" on an equal basis...without a major country telling others what to do...Brasil, Russia, India, China. South Africa (BRICS)  have a sort of balance with room for lots of other countries (Pakistan, Indonesia, Philippines, Argentina, Nigeria, Mexico...)..

So-to "kill" the petro-$, end neo-colonial rule "sanction the west" ....

DJ-Most western countries now already face high inflation, energy/healthcare issues...spending cuts further will increase social unrest...More refugees (not only millions from Ukraine...Erdogan/Türkiye also has millions of refugees it is willing to "export"...lots of people trying to come to Europe/US in the (false) hope of a better live-get away from climate change, drug wars...tens-of-thousends of these refugees die on their way...building walls, push back refugees into the sea/river is how "the west"deals with human rights...) are "baked in" ..

So-the end goal of most of the rest is collapse of a neo-colonial west...

Non western countries are NOT united in many fronts...India-Pakistan tensions may be used by the US/NATO to break up an Asian power grab...Restarting a Korean War to try to divide Asia further is another scenario...(DJ-However Korea was a Japan colony till 1945..South Korea may reposition itself...). 

"We live in interesting times"

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 25 2022 at 1:28am

Maybe part 3 should try to describe "the west"...

DJ-I do understand the US defending the US-petro-dollar...I much less understand the EU getting pulled into a conflict that is damaging the EU likely more then the US...

Then "the west" also has to include Japan-more or less in some ways in the same position as Türkiye...their neighbours do want to see Turkish, Japanese role in the region limited-based on history...Both Türkiye and Japan -now- get energy still from Russia. Türkiye may try to become an energy-hub for Europe/Africa...but Russia and the Arab World, Iran want to keep Türkiye under some controls...

Japan did a lot of damage in the region. Its role was limited in 1945...but colonialsm did not start in 1941-Pearl Harbour...Japan tried to dominate the region since 1900...The 1905 Russia-Japan War was only part of the history...Manchuria-China, Korea did see decades of Japanese terror even before the Pacific part of World War Two started...

Australia, New Zealand -in history- balanced between the US and UK...did join the US in the Vietnam War...however with trade shifting away Australia, New Zealand more and more need the Asian market...So they joined some Asian trade agreements-while also Australia is participating in the Eurovision Song Contest....

China, India may become major investors in Australia mines. Australia, New Zealand food exports...Australia, New Zealand may need to work more with countries like Indonesia., Philippines, Singapore, South Korea to protect their interests...The US may NOT be the right partner for protection of Australia/New Zealand interests (as long as the US is anti China, anti Russia). 

-Europe also is "split up";

-UK did not find alternatives after the Brexit...facing economic collapse. Again-I did write this earlier-Scotland, North of Ireland may leave the UK-become EU member...

-EU itself also is split...

NL used to be an energy exporter...Less gas from NL north now is getting replaced by increase of LNG import-partly from the US...and a large part of that LNG is NOT for Dutch use...Norway/North Sea are major energy sources...Mediterranean Sea also may have oil/gas...part of a conflict between East Mediterranean countries (Israel/Lebanon, Türkiye, Egypt, Libya...). 

Last summer NL did get 25% of its electricity from renewables (solar, wind), Spain 23%...some other countries depend still much more on fossil fuels (most of them in the east of Europe). Also climate wise western Europe may not see extreme cold in the winter...an increasing amount of energy is used for airco's...

Germany may be the major EU country-but it also may be very divided...Bavaria/South Germany has major car fabrication/export...Hamburg/Bremen are major sea ports-need international trade...The Ruhr-area may be the main population center-but its industries are old...its economy is in bad shape...

France did want to go for nuclear energy-but a lot of energyplants also are older...uranium "fuel" needs to be imported...

Most of Europe has "conflicts/gaps" between the urban area's and the rural ones...(part of the NL farmer protests are related to that conflict...NL wants to build more houses-but to reduce nitrogen polution-wanted to decrease farming...New plans also include industry..may even limit air transport. NL is "over active" both in foodproduction and airtransport...Amsterdam Airport is sometimes seen as an extra for London...with good train links...). 

Southern/Eastern Europe is in need of extra EU-help...NW Europe (NL, Germany, Austria, Finland) are subsidizing the rest...(I do think Ukraine joining the EU only would be possible if the US is willing to pay for that...). 

-The US is very divided..."leaders" increased tensions...not bridge the gap...

In general western politics may run out of public support...disconnect with most of the voters...Trying to prohibit political parties (AfD in Germany, fvd in NL) is NOT a sign of strength...in the US legal steps against trump simply underlines the political crisis...does NOT solve it...

The lack of western ability for diplomacy did not only weaken the western position in the world but also may weaken democracy itself...

Public support for "democratic dictatorships" in Russia, China, (even Iran, Syria...) may be growing-with only small segments protesting for more freedoms..Western hijacking of those protests-to start regime change-gives rulers room for repression...

-So how will "the west" move further ? 

EU, US/Canada, Japan, Australia/New Zealand will go different ways...with EU, Japan, Australia/New Zealand one way or another having to find ways to deal with Asia, Africa, Latin America...

I think the Euro/€ could increase its role-maybe in Africa...but later on might be even interesting for South America, Australia/New Zealand to position themselves in a new global trade system...

The US may be becoming isolated again...isolationism was US policy untill 1917...but then with the rest of "the America's" as a US "reserve"...The US/Canada may even do well-not getting involved in all kind of global conflicts...concentrating on their own infrastructure/economy...(Most of US energy production is for US use...The US only would get stronger if it used it resources more wise...Life expectency in China, Cuba by now may be better then in the US...and that is related to how the US is organizing things...). 

Two major problems;

-Pandemics are NOT under control...may get even worse...

-Climate change simply is NOT getting solved...

Both pandemics and climate change could end humans before 2030...only nuclear war may kill us faster...I hope Mutual Assured Destruction may stop us from all out nuclear war...Ukraine/Kiev may still go for a "dirty bomb"...

DJ-I am anti-war...I blame NATO expansionism-politics for the present major crisis...I rather had a "limited NATO/EU" being more constructive then both EU and NATO unable to see limits....

In my opinion Putin is standing for conservative views, fossil fuels...I disagree with those views however a lot of "westerners" may not be that different in view...I see some similarities between Iran, the US and Russia, Saudi Arabia, Poland...religion a very major factor...while in NW Europe religion is "a sideshow"...churches turned into shops, hotels, houses or pulled down...

It is open how things further will develop-lots of uncertanties...China-India are not "the best of friends"...Israel may seek confrontation with Iran...both would worsen the global situation-further weaken the western position...Instability does NOT restore western dominance only brings more chaos....

I hope wise leaders will show up...certainly the west may need them urgently...

End of part 3


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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