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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Iran CFR is 13.67?

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    Posted: February 26 2020 at 9:35am
Iran reports 44 new cases of coronavirus and 4 new deaths, raising total to 139 cases and 19 deaths.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1232600310851477504


Is this higher CFR as a result of a possible variant of Cov19?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 9:42am
Probably not. The 'health system' in Iran would embarras a neanderthal. They have zero science, zero money, zero technology and an attitude of: "If it is the will of Allah, then I die."

Sadly, although that is the majority opinion, not all Iranians are like that. But the intelligent will die alongside the stupid.

Most of their theocracy are very old, so there is some hope for the future. Perhaps the will of Allah is to remove the blocks to progress.

If you think I sound cynical, I am. I have some Persian friends.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 9:49am
Well what is telling then is that if/when the health care system is overwhelmed we have a baseline minimal medical care received CFR by looking at the numbers coming out of Iran.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 9:52am
People have different opinions on this. I remember that Doc Campbell suggested mutation, and I have also been saying possible mutation. Not only are mutations normal, but they should be expected. I'm personally still leaning toward a new mutation / variant in Iran. Unless the WHO actually investigates it with sequencing, we are in the dark with it and only left with speculation.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 9:58am
A cfr of 13.67 ? wow, that is getting really bad.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 9:59am
A recent article about Iran and potential reporting problem. I think most will assume reporting problem as it is easier to go that route than to possibly accept a pseudo slate-wiper mutation. Having said that, maybe it is a reporting problem lol, who knows..

Until further data, we have to hope for the best, but plan for the worst, as the saying goes. So in my world, can't rule out a mutation. Would be reckless to rule anything out.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/why-iran-s-reported-mortality-rate-coronavirus-higher-other-countries-n1142646
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 10:00am
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

People have different opinions on this. I remember that Doc Campbell suggested mutation, and I have also been saying possible mutation. Not only are mutations normal, but they should be expected. I'm personally still leaning toward a new mutation / variant in Iran. Unless the WHO actually investigates it with sequencing, we are in the dark with it and only left with speculation.


Have they not provided a sample for sequencing YET??   FFS.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 10:11am
Iran??? Duh! What's a sequence?
Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 10:55am
CFR as reported is actually CCFR (Confirmed Case Fatality Ratio).

While I am  not ruling out a mutation. it is also possible that there is a lack of testing facilities and only the more serious ones are tested. Deaths are obvious, but if testing is limited many of the actual cases will be missed and the CFR inflated.   If more testing was done, then more cases will be found and the CFR would decline. 

ps. while deaths are obvious, I am aware of the dispute between local officials and the Health Officials of just how many died of the the SARS-Cov2 virus/Corvid-19 disease.   So even those figures are not obvious, as they seem to have adopted the Chinese accounting system.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Thorne! Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 10:59am
Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

Iran??? Duh! What's a sequence?


Do you have personal experience with the Iranians and the Iranian healthcare system?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 11:19am
No. But I went to school with Aristocrats from several countries and some minor royalty from a few - including Iran.

My Iranian schoolfriends filled me in on many of the political threads which were woven together to make todays theocracy. I became quite fascinated and still watch the insanely-Islamic state now. I do get the mindset.

Belief and fundamentalism underlies EVERYTHING! The very concept of science is sneered at.

Take an extreemist from the Bible belt, take most of the logic out of the good book and replace it with some poetry. Now beat that fundamentalist about the head until their ears bleed. After about 1/2 hour, when they are starting to mumble and drool, you will have the guy-in-the-street in Iran. But you still will not grasp the extreme cases.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 11:28am
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

People have different opinions on this. I remember that Doc Campbell suggested mutation, and I have also been saying possible mutation. Not only are mutations normal, but they should be expected. I'm personally still leaning toward a new mutation / variant in Iran. Unless the WHO actually investigates it with sequencing, we are in the dark with it and only left with speculation.


On one of his videos he said that he Chinese had noted the disease had mutated 17 times between 7 Dec and 31 January. That's a lot of mutations. There's no reason to think it'll stop mutating any time soon so it may well have become more deadly in Iran.
You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 11:39am
Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

People have different opinions on this. I remember that Doc Campbell suggested mutation, and I have also been saying possible mutation. Not only are mutations normal, but they should be expected. I'm personally still leaning toward a new mutation / variant in Iran. Unless the WHO actually investigates it with sequencing, we are in the dark with it and only left with speculation.


On one of his videos he said that he Chinese had noted the disease had mutated 17 times between 7 Dec and 31 January. That's a lot of mutations. There's no reason to think it'll stop mutating any time soon so it may well have become more deadly in Iran.



The WHO won't budge with looking into it. Not even sure what their purpose is any longer.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 11:44am
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

People have different opinions on this. I remember that Doc Campbell suggested mutation, and I have also been saying possible mutation. Not only are mutations normal, but they should be expected. I'm personally still leaning toward a new mutation / variant in Iran. Unless the WHO actually investigates it with sequencing, we are in the dark with it and only left with speculation.


On one of his videos he said that he Chinese had noted the disease had mutated 17 times between 7 Dec and 31 January. That's a lot of mutations. There's no reason to think it'll stop mutating any time soon so it may well have become more deadly in Iran.



The WHO won't budge with looking into it. Not even sure what their purpose is any longer.


   WHOO~ Wonderful Hicks Observing Outbreaks   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 11:45am
lol
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CharmlessMan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 1:11pm
One thing that is on Iran's side is they don't have an aging population like many western and some Asian nations. Only a very small proportion are aged 70 or over. Average life expectancy is 76 which isn't too far behind the USA.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Iran

This should mean that the mortality rate will be substantially lower than it otherwise would.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BeachMama Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 1:52pm
Two observations on the situation in Iran —

First, I think that the chance of the virus experiencing a mutation, or shift, is significant. SARS-2 (which I still think is a strikingly unoriginal name — seriously, you have the chance to name a brand-new Boris and that’s the best you can do?) is an RNA virus, not a DNA, so it will be more prone to genetic changes. It is entirely possible that a genetic change has taken place, producing a new variant of the virus.

Is that what’s happened? I don’t know, and we will have no idea until scientists are able to study samples from Iranian patients.

The other point I considered is that we are seeing a specific number of cases that have been confirmed through testing, and a death rate also confirmed by testing. However, that doesn’t mean that those aren’t he only cases circulating in Iran. Just as the case load in Wuhan (and all of China) was likely much higher than confirmed cases indicated, there are probably many more than the currently reported 139 cases in Iran. This would bring the CFR down, if I understand the math of the process correctly ( it please don’t take my word on that — I was a literature major and a philosophy minor!).

My heart is hurting for the Iranian people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 3:25pm
I think it's recombined with MERS,

MERS had CFR OF 8+.........

we will never know......

As to Iran.....

i don't believe word of what their Government officials  say.......

"we never shot down a plane"......in fact what plane? 

And  what coronavirus.....atishoo.....

Dumb Dumb ,DUMBER......
12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 4:01pm
Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BeachMama Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 6:13pm
The government is horrid — the people at their mercy. Just like China. A horrific situation.

I also have wondered whether a recombination has occurred, and if it has, then we could be seeing a new — and more dangerous — phase of this outbreak. It is quite scary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2020 at 8:00am
Iran confirms 104 new cases and 4 new deaths; total of 245 cases and 26 deaths.

CFR% 10.61
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2020 at 8:04am
Looking a little better with the CFR. Not much, but still better.
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