Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
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Elizabeth
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 18 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 113 |
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Posted: March 28 2006 at 9:35am |
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/opinion/14203677.htm
Fear of virus is sickest thing about bird fluBy Marc SiegelFear is a deeply rooted emotion -- one that can serve as a lifesaving response to imminent danger. But because we humans often magnify risk, fear can also cause us to overreact to remote threats, such as bird flu. According to a significant study published in the prestigious British journal Nature recently, the H5N1 bird flu virus is at least two large mutations and two small mutations away from being the next human pandemic virus. This virus attaches deep in the lungs of birds but cannot adhere to the upper respiratory tract of humans. Since we can't transmit the virus to one another, it poses little immediate threat to us. So why did the ``flu hunter,'' world-renowned Tennessee virologist Robert Webster, say of bird flu on ABC that there are ``about even odds at this time for the virus to learn how to transmit human to human,'' and that ``society just can't accept the idea that 50 percent of the population could die . . . I'm sorry if I'm making people a little frightened, but I feel it's my role.'' I'm sorry, Dr. Webster, but your role is to track influenza in the test tube, not to enter into broad speculation on national television. By your way of thinking, we should all be either building an escape rocket ship or killing every bird we see before it can kill us. Fear causes the public to blur the distinction between birds and people, and so, as the H5N1 virus infects flocks of birds in Pakistan and Israel, nightly news watchers track the path to the United States. The poultry industry cringes as migratory birds that may be carrying H5N1 make their way closer to the northern shores of North America. But though this bird flu appears to be quite deadly in many species of birds, killing 10 out of 10 chick embryos in test-tube conditions, we humans are a different matter. In 1997 in Hong Kong, for example, where there were 18 human cases of bird flu and six deaths, thousands of people were screened, and 16 percent developed antibodies but never got sick. There appears to be a spectrum of disease in humans, not nearly as deadly as many media reports have supposed. Even if the H5N1 virus does mutate enough to spread easily among the upper breathing tracts of humans, there are multiple scenarios in which it would not cause the next massive pandemic. In fact, the Spanish flu of 1918 made the jump to humans before killing a large number of birds. Not only do we have vaccinations, antibiotics, anti-viral drugs, public information networks, steroids and heart treatments that were lacking in 1918 to treat victims of the flu; in addition, the growing worldwide immunity to H5N1 may lessen the outbreak in humans even if the dreaded mutation does occur. If H5N1 spreads in pigs (a soup of viruses) and exchanges genetic material with another human flu virus before passing to humans, the result is likely to be far less deadly. The swine flu fiasco of 1976 is an example of the damage that can be done by fear of a mutated virus that never quite lives up to 1918 expectations. About 1,000 cases of ascending paralysis occurred from a rushed vaccine given to more than 40 million people in response to a feared pandemic that never arrived. Even the word ``pandemic'' scares us unnecessarily. The word simply means a new strain of a virus appearing in several areas of the world at one time and causing illness. The last flu pandemic, in 1968, killed 33,800 Americans -- slightly less than the number who usually die here of the flu in an average year. We certainly don't need to think in end-of-the world terms for that kind of pandemic. Cooking a chicken or turkey kills any influenza virus 100 percent of the time, yet the fear of H5N1 bird flu is already so rampant in Europe that poultry consumption is down 70 percent in Italy and 20 percent in France. In Britain people are giving away their parrots after a single parrot got the disease, and in Germany a cat died of H5N1 and the public was told to keep cats indoors. In this country I have heard from more than one farmer and several poultry companies that the price of poultry has already dropped 50 percent in some places. Imagine what will happen if a bird in the United States gets H5N1 bird flu. Our fear is growing at such a rate that our own poultry industry, No. 1 in the world, is likely to be destroyed. We are already petrified by fear of mad cow disease, another case where a species barrier protects us. Flu changes its shape and size and is a killer worthy of respect and attention. But the most contagious virus among humans is our fear. MARC SIEGEL, an associate professor at the New York University School of Medicine, is the author of ``Bird Flu: Everything You Need to Know About the Next Pandemic.'' He wrote this article for the Washington Post. How many people will just blow off the possibility of BF actually mutating and not prepare after reading this? |
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Amethyst
Valued Member Joined: March 14 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 203 |
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Yeah, but it's just an opinion piece. And the paper does have the right to publish it. Does anyone actually read the opinion section in their newspaper? I rarely do unless something catches my eye.
I suggest writing a persuasive letter to the editor and tell people not to ignore the threat of avian flu, for the people who do read that section. |
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araywood
Adviser Group Joined: March 04 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 206 |
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Has anyone read his book? Doe he dispell the pandemic in there?
Is he H5N1 bipolar. I just can't understand why you would print a book with such a title and then spew this stuff.
"Even if the H5N1 virus does mutate enough to spread easily among the upper breathing tracts of humans, there are multiple scenarios in which it would not cause the next massive pandemic." Then why would your right a book on it.
Well to each his own.
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NO NEWS IS WHO NEWS
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in addition, the growing worldwide immunity to H5N1 may lessen the outbreak in humans even if the dreaded mutation does occur.
Uh, and to what worldwide immunity to H5N1 would Mr. Siegal be referring, exactly?
Indeed, fear is a powerful thing. However, fear is not always a stupid thing. Fear is not ignorance. I certainly hope, as I'm sure most people do, that Mr. Siegal is ultimately correct in his assumptions. To the contrary, while no one wants a global pandemic on their hands, being aware that such a pandemic could occur and taking precautions against that possibilty are only rational. Safe is better than sorry, and even if the flu kind of fizzles out, the supplies you have stockpiled can still be used.
Yeah, everyone can have their opinions, but Mr. Siegal's opinion that he and everyone else are invincible is far more dangerous than being concerned about legitamite health issues.
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araywood
Adviser Group Joined: March 04 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 206 |
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Let us thank God he doesn't work for the WHO.
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NO NEWS IS WHO NEWS
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DarlMan
V.I.P. Member Joined: December 26 2005 Status: Offline Points: 140 |
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According to a significant study published in the prestigious British
journal Nature recently, the H5N1 bird flu virus is at least two large
mutations and two small mutations away from being the next human
pandemic virus. This virus attaches deep in the lungs of birds but
cannot adhere to the upper respiratory tract of humans. Since we can't
transmit the virus to one another, it poses little immediate threat to
us.
Yet many other scientist feel that there is only one or maybe two mutations needed. Also the fact that it attaches to deep lung tissue is more a worry than a salvation, it is what makes this bug the killer that it is. 16 percent developed antibodies but never got sick. There appears to be a spectrum of disease in humans, not nearly as deadly as many media reports have supposed. That means that 16 percent could have been carriers if it had be H2H transmission. Just proves how hard an effective quaranteen would be. If H5N1 spreads in pigs (a soup of viruses) and exchanges genetic material with another human flu virus before passing to humans, the result is likely to be far less deadly. The swine flu fiasco of 1976 is an example of the damage that can be done by fear of a mutated virus that never quite lives up to 1918 expectations. About 1,000 cases of ascending paralysis occurred from a rushed vaccine given to more than 40 million people in response to a feared pandemic that never arrived. How does he draw the conclusion that it will be far less deadly? Also the comparison to the Swine Flu incident shows only two things that rushing a vaccine can cause problems (not good if we do have a pandemic) and that strain did not become a pandemic. Otherwise it is an irrelivant comparison since it tells nothing of why H5N1 will not become H2H trans. or why if it does it will be less dangerous. In this country I have heard from more than one farmer and several poultry companies that the price of poultry has already dropped 50 percent in some places. Imagine what will happen if a bird in the United States gets H5N1 bird flu. Our fear is growing at such a rate that our own poultry industry, No. 1 in the world, is likely to be destroyed. We are already petrified by fear of mad cow disease, another case where a species barrier protects us. Here is where the rubber meets the road. This guy has been a very effective lobbyist for the poultry industry. Also, I thought people could catch Mad Cow disease from meat. I guess there were a lot of misdiagnosis in the past huh? I mean damn I want some good news. I just got a job and I most definatly want to know why this is going to be a non-event. Yet this article provides few facts to back up these conclusions which contradict what the WHO/CDC have been saying. I mean just give me a name of someone working on this that feels the same as Mr. Siegel. I want good news not fake news. |
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History shows again and again
How nature points out the folly of men |
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Dayal
Valued Member Joined: March 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 7 |
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in addition, the growing worldwide immunity to H5N1 may lessen the outbreak in humans even if the dreaded mutation does occur.
Uh, and to what worldwide immunity to H5N1 would Mr. Siegal be referring, exactly?
Indeed, fear is a powerful thing. However, fear is not always a stupid thing. Fear is not ignorance. I certainly hope, as I'm sure most people do, that Mr. Siegal is ultimately correct in his assumptions. To the contrary, while no one wants a global pandemic on their hands, being aware that such a pandemic could occur and taking precautions against that possibilty are only rational. Safe is better than sorry, and even if the flu kind of fizzles out, the supplies you have stockpiled can still be used.
Yeah, everyone can have their opinions, but Mr. Siegal's opinion that he and everyone else are invincible is far more dangerous than being concerned about legitamite health issues. |
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Dayal
Valued Member Joined: March 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 7 |
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Ehh, sorry. Somehow I was logged in as a guest up there and it got posted as such. My bad...
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mini-mouse
Valued Member Joined: January 29 2006 Status: Offline Points: 105 |
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Hi Elisabeth. That article is a great find - thank you for posting it. I'm sure Mr. Siegle thought of himself as being very reponsible letting people know that there is nothing to fear from this virus - unless, of course he is in the pocket of someone in Washington. I'm not a conspiracy thinker, well, not always but it sure seems to me that very little informtion is getting to the everyday person - businesses,yes, but not the general public. Mr. Siegle said what most people want to hear " everything is going along just fine." If he beleives this to be true, well okay, his right to say so - but if he is doing this on behalf of others just to keep the masses calm - what a terrible sin. I agree with Amethyst that someone with persuasive writing skills could write in and at least give the other side of what may be coming our way.
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Gross ignorance by a man who is supposed to be a professor? Wow!
I suggest he read up on what happened at Qinghai Lakes. His knowledge level is about a year out of date. |
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Amethyst
Valued Member Joined: March 14 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 203 |
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That's true. The info only hits the mainstream news in the U.S. when someone dies of the Avian Flu or when there is a massive cull on birds. Although, you can bet that when the first bird is officially "found" in the U.S. that the media will be going non-stop about it then.
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araywood
Adviser Group Joined: March 04 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 206 |
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I think Darlman gotit!
This guy has been a very effective lobbyist for the poultry industry.
THats it right there. My dad was lobbyist too. I think marc got pimped slapped.
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NO NEWS IS WHO NEWS
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RicheeRich
Valued Member Joined: February 08 2006 Status: Offline Points: 203 |
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The first dead bird in the U.S. should be delivered to his house. Where does he live, anyway?
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Let's just say it as it is. The guy is an idiot.
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outlaw
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Siegel is just pimping his book. I am certain that he is just a charlatan faux intellectual that is in the pocket of the poulty lobby.
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Fiddlerdave
Valued Member Joined: February 09 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 259 |
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Maybe he'll do a commercial kissing a H5N1 positive chicken!
Actually, aside from being cruel, filthy and environmentally poisonous and producing gross fatty, tumor-filled chicken (where do you think chicken nuggets come from?), I think it would be good thing if our factory farm chicken, pig, cattle etc, went out of business. The "microbe pollution" costs (H5N1 pandemics, antibiotic resistant bacteria for instance), that these producers do not pay (we get to with our lives and money!), are just too high. Even if there is not a human pandemic, the existing bird pandemic well be having very bad ecological effects for the world.
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Dave
"Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for us"! |
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