I think a 20% - 30% correction could be a little modest, but yes, it appears that a significant crash could be imminent very soon.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/10/07/a-one-month-shutdown-risks-triggering-20-to-30-correction-barry-ritholtz/

He's still speaking at this moment.  He probably won't stop until the market is down a little further.  Obama needs the markets to tank in order to get talks going once again.  A pretty pathetic game being played in Washington.  

Here is the latest.  The networks are jumping on after that was posted.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/08/investing/stocks-markets/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Tech stocks crushed as debt deadline looms

It's time for a dialog. 

FluMom wrote: Hate to tell you all but this political stuff is all theater.

Too much drama, poorly written script, and the cast stinks

Medclinician2013 wrote: Here is the latest.  The networks are jumping on after that was posted. http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/08/investing/stocks-markets/index.html?hpt=hp_t2 Tech stocks crushed as debt deadline looms It's time for a dialog.

Quite honestly, it's about time. Personally I *WANT* the Republicans to force us to stop borrowing.

It becomes increasingly apparent that both sides are dug into their trenches and as long as that continues, the market is going to be poor and investors will become more unsettled.

An example of comments which I find discouraging is this one I found in on money.cnn.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/08/news/economy/debt-ceiling-shutdown-what-i-know/index.html?iid=HP_Highlight&iid=article_sidebar

The U.S. government has more than enough tax revenue to make all of its interest payments on Treasuries. So we won't "default" in that sense. But there are all the other government obligations that we won't have enough money for.

2. Those other obligations include Social Security, Medicare and military pay. Good luck "prioritizing" what to pay -- and what to skip.

comment: Despite the safety net where everyone got paid except for the military which later got a type of extension, no such net will be in place as the next SSI and Medicare approach.

3. Government spending cuts would be severe. If we don't raise the debt ceiling, spending would drop by about a third very quickly, and the resulting recession and stock market crash would be devastating.

4. The debt ceiling is about paying for past spending decisions. Political negotiations should focus on future spending decisions.

Question: So as they go into to negotiate to raise the debt ceiling "for a limited time", will this have any effect on easing the pressure on investors?  Probably not.

5. Oct. 17 is not "default day," and missed payments wouldn't happen until a few days later. Rather, Oct. 17 is the day Treasury Secretary Jack Lew thinks he'll be out of tricks -- he will still have about $30 billion in cash and incoming tax revenue.

6. Politicians and the media don't do well with squishy deadlines. Our countdown clocks are probably wrong. And politicians will feel emboldened if nothing bad happens when the clock strikes midnight on what may turn out to be the wrong day.

Comment: The newest headlines at CNN -

http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/10/politics/shutdown-showdown/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Washington (CNN) -- It's not a total solution, and there's still plenty of work to be done, but House Republican leaders are considering a plan to temporarily raise the nation's borrowing limit while keeping the partial government shutdown in place, members and leadership sources told CNN.

The proposal would include demands for negotiations on issues related to the national debt, the sources said, although it's unclear precisely what form those talks would take.

It's also unclear how long an extension of the debt ceiling would last, although senior House Republican sources have previously indicated an extension of four to six weeks seems likely.

House Republicans are scheduled to meet Thursday morning to discuss the idea, while GOP leaders will travel to the White House in the afternoon to meet with President Barack Obama.

Time running out for debt ceiling deal 

Senate Democrats have a separate meeting scheduled with the president.

Comment: So bottom line is there is no really big sigh of relief or any development to end the shutdown without the continued impact on the American people and investors which is likely to bring down the market even further.

Med

http://money.cnn.com/2013/10/10/investing/stocks-markets/index.html?iid=Lead&hpt=hp_t1

The key phrase here is... Stocks soar.  The graph is magnified so the difference with a 1.57% jump after days of 1% drops is not that impressive. 

Statements that they might reach a deal which is a bandage over a serious wound will not fix the U.S. Economy.  If you wade past the eye popping graph and headline, the contents of the article and what is happening are not that encouraging.

Unemployment edging up? Investors saw one sign that should make them uneasy about the jobs market in the U.S., but they seemed content to ignore it Thursday.

The U.S. Labor Department's weekly report on initial jobless claims showed a sharp jump in claims over the previous week. The government did not release its monthly jobs report last week due to the shutdown.

The world markets however jumped as well on a global scale.

http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/europe/?iid=EL

This would show us how really volatile the market is when a single news release can produce such a change  that was the reason for the encouraging market results so far today.

To end on a more positive note, no one wants to see the stocks tumble or economic disaster.  This is not entirely true though. Some could make a sizable killing on buying as they bottom out and then rebound. Yet, over all, a better economy and recovery for the U.S.  is a plus not only for America, but for global financial stability as well. 

Yet there are certain realities in place. One indicator you might look at to understand what is driving the market now is the fear-and-greed index. This partially explains why the American economy is in trouble and how it got there.

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=EL

The components or elements involved will not change in a day. As one poster said, this has been going on for many many years.

But as we veterans often say - "a day above ground is a good day." So, it appears today in the Stock Market for most, was a good day.

Med

 

Orange Boner... 

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/stock-market-news-for-october-14-2013-market-news-cm287020

On the home front, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan reported consumer sentiment numbers. The preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 75.2 in September from previous month's final reading of 77.5. This was marginally below the consensus estimate of 75.6. The consumer sentiment touched a nine-month low due to investor concerns about the partial government shutdown and the approaching debt ceiling deadline.

Comment: It is amazing that the stocks continue to stay up considering there has been no real hard core improvement aside from bills from both parties that lack solid numbers and there is no apparent real bottom line agreement. Despite the news stories which in later portions of the articles mention that there are still differences and it could take longer to hammer them out.

As mentioned in another post, there is always the chance of some Senate or Congressional bill passed, however temporary, which will be reflected in a true surge in the Market. If the 10/17/2013 is reached and there is a default, then the stocks may drop drastically.  The closer America gets to that date with no agreement, the more imminent a likely crash is.

One day at a time; hoping the fighting representatives of the American people can set aside their political agendas to save the United States economy.

Medclinician

 

http://www.investors.com/stock-market-today/

Stocks opened strongly and held gains Wednesday, cheered by a bipartisan deal in the Senate that will reopen the government through Jan. 15 and lift the debt ceiling through Feb. 7.

About three-and-a-half hours into the session, all three major averages scored gains of better than 1%. The Nasdaq hit a 52-week high, while the S&P 500 came to within 8 points of a record.

Preliminary data showed NYSE volume tracking 16% higher than Tuesday. Nasdaq volume rose 4%.

Comment: This is all the result of a single announcement The Senate had reached an agreement. There is literally no news on the House of Representatives giving a favorable response or any announcement they will back this.  There is no statement from the President who is also a critical part of this... yet.

We have approximately 13 hours left. This is the final countdown to a default on our economy which still must make it through the holidays and possible Draconian cuts should there be no funds by November 1st.

Conclusion: Despite all the doomsday talk, the common person in the U.S. does not want to see the economy crash. The world as well would be massively effective and would likely suffer plunges as well or surges depending on what happens here.

Medclinician

Both sides are useless!! We do not have to Default or even worse raise the Dept ceiling!! Just cut out all the wasteful spending!! They are all a bunch of XXXXXXXX Playing with our Lives.



POLITICO ‏@politico 41 s
Senate expected to vote on a deal late Wednesday afternoon or early evening, Dem leadership aide says: [link to politi.co]

It may seem stock market problems are now history  - but they really aren't. The bill is on the Congressional floor right now and they are debating it.  One can hope,for the American people, that tomorrow morning will see a huge surge and for awhile we will be out of trouble. Yet this is a band-aid over a serious wound, and the Market is very subject to change. 

At midnight, EST, the story will be told. 

http://money.cnn.com/data/us_markets/

Nov 07 1:28pm: Many stocks were in the red Thursday

There is news of a massive decrease in social security checks in December 2013 - as a mandatory 3 months of premiums is taken out in a lump sum.  This could possibly devastate the poor and elderly across the board and give some incomes of $26-40 dollars as compared to hundreds or more.

It was difficult to get the real numbers except on CNN which appears more interested in the drop in Tesla and a rise in Twitter versus a jittery market.

The effect on Americans is a non-negotiable reality with a massive short fall income due to Obamacare. No money will go back into pockets once it is taken out.  This massive blow will hit just before Christmas and could send the markets spiraling globally at the same time the flu begins to spread.

The reopening of the government solved nothing in terms of the rocky economic reality which will hit January 1, 2014.

The ripple effect as Americans literally will not be able to afford affordable health care, the hit on the economy will hit the retailers hard. 

Prepping sounds like a really good idea.

Medclinician

The over all mood in the U.S. concerning a coming crash of the economy is becoming more and more pessimistic. While Wall Street and the financial community continue to rave about the Dow Jones and other classic numbers to watch to determine the health of the Stock Market, these may not truly reflect it's future.

The classic and better indicator of the overall mood of the U.S. and and world as to how things are often polls.  A lack luster November with multiple issues during Thanksgiving, may begin  another fall in the Stock Market. Today is Black Friday as shoppers swarm the stores the economy and their mood will be reflected in the sales.  CNN/ORC today said that people are getting gloomier about the future of the economy.

Perhaps as we reach the last day of November and a self-imposed deadly for the .gov Obamacare website, as many of us will see our SSI checks cut by 80% for this month, things will hit the fan. With millions who may be left with as little as $50 to pay for all their bills and food this will certainly not increase their ability to buy presents for Christmas.

This, as many threads I post here, is not a fun task. It is simply making people aware of the situation so they can prepare.

Thank you posters who, many of whom are very knowledgeable about stocks, Wall Street, and have many years of experience. Your wisdom has  guided my journey into an area that I continue learn about and try to understand.

I write for the common person who has little experience or knowledge in this area and write in in simple words. If, and it is likely, things hit the fan today, and the roll-out is  poor and people are truly upset, it may affect the Stock Market  considerably.

Perhaps it won't crash, but the honeymoon may be over as forces which have worked to reflect a Bull Market  falter and a Bear Market replaces the house of cards which sits so precariously aloof as the storm approaches. 

http://content.moneyinstructor.com/693/what-bull-bear-market.html

For history I will say this.  There is no logical reason for a stock market surge.  With the coming of cuts in food stamps, veteran's benefits, and the most unworkable health care plan ever written these numbers being pumped out are the biggest lie of all. This thread will sink and be forgotten, but the stocks will not stay up when it hits the fan.

Congress is the worst it has ever been, and the sane will eventually will stop feeding the flames.  Never have the American people been so deceived so much for so long.

Medclinician

Be prepared: Wall Street advisor recommends guns, ammo for protection in collapse

http://washingtonexaminer.com/be-prepared-wall-street-advisor-recommends-guns-ammo-for-protection-in-collapse/article/2541205

Is A Financial Apocalypse Coming?

http://www.emarotta.com/is-a-financial-apocalypse-coming/

How David Stockman Became Democrats' Favorite Reaganite

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/08/how-david-stockman-became-democrats-favorite-reaganite/261121/

""I invest in anything that [Federal Reserve Chair Ben] Bernanke can't destroy, including gold, canned beans, bottled water and flashlight batteries."

liquidity pumped the market the euphoria is in the air... good time to sellup

Med   your post is three months old    (Not exactly imminent)   I made almost 20% in that time.

I think we should insist that these Doom and Gloom Posts be dated otherwise its just stating the inevitable or Obvious. Tell me something I don't already know.

Will the market crash again "absolutely"    

Its a legalized & glorified Casino


Over the years not much has changed when it comes to these Doom & Gloom stories, the stock market is going to crash, the dollar is going to crash, the economy is going to crash, the evil elitist new world order is going to kill you all.

The only thing I have seen that actually did happen was the format in which these cons are presented. I remember when they were going door to door with records, then it was cassette tapes, then we got video with beta and vhs, then on to DVD's and now the internet explosion. Now there are information trolls everywhere. Atleast if we held the posts to dating the conversation would be a bit more entertaining and possibly even more factual instead of the repetitive brainwashing that now sells for real information.

We could even keep a score card post and find out whose right and who is just (Well You Know)

Just my thoughts

Piece of advise--Enjoy your life now, anyway you slice it its never long enough. To sit and worry about every crash and burn post or radio show is not worth your time.

Besides we have enough to worry about in Pandemic Risks right now!!!

Johnray... America the most stable economy in the world???   LOL  

I am still waiting for it to crash then I will pick up some stocks! The Treasuries are going up also...good news on all fronts!

The really big picture to understand is that by 2016 China will be the largest superpower.