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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

It is sobering

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    Posted: February 11 2007 at 9:44pm
    Its very sobering indeed.


It is sobering to realize that in 1968, when the most recent influenza pandemic occurred, the virus emerged in a China that had a human population of 790 million, a pig population of 5.2 million, and a poultry population of 12.3 million; today, these populations number 1.3 billion, 508 million, and 13 billion, respectively. Similar changes have occurred in the human and animal populations of other Asian countries, creating an incredible mixing vessel for viruses. Given this reality, as well as the exponential growth in foreign travel during the past 50 years, we must accept that a pandemic is coming — although whether it will be caused by H5N1 or by another novel strain remains to be seen.

Should H5N1 become the next pandemic strain, the resultant morbidity and mortality could rival those of 1918, when more than half the deaths occurred among largely healthy people between 18 and 40 years of age and were caused by a virus-induced cytokine storm (see diagram) that led to the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).4 The ARDS-related morbidity and mortality in the pandemic of 1918 was on a different scale from those of 1957 and 1968 — a fact that highlights the importance of the virulence of the virus subtype or genotype. Clinical, epidemiologic, and laboratory evidence suggests that a pandemic caused by the current H5N1 strain would be more likely to mimic the 1918 pandemic than those that occurred more recently.5 If we translate the rate of death associated with the 1918 influenzavirus to that in the current population, there could be 1.7 million deaths in the United States and 180 million to 360 million deaths globally. We have an extremely limited armamentarium with which to handle millions of cases of ARDS — one not much different from that available to the front-line medical corps in 1918.

http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/352/18/1839
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2007 at 10:33pm
hi Kilt....   I'm trying to keep it all in perspective...
 
I listened to the Doctor and it gave me a
 
 
Reality Check
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Dr. Michael Osterholm says that... 
 
U.S.     1,700,000     could die in a pandemic....
U.S. 301,153,694 ..........current total population
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World 6,575,784,858
05:06 GMT (EST+5) Feb 12, 2007
 

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Interview with Dr. Michael Osterholm on preparing for an influenza pandemic. 5 May 2005 - http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/352/18/1839/DC1
 
 
Perhaps the toll would be much higher in underdeveloped countries...
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 15 2007 at 4:58pm
This is also sobering...
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Stop Animal ID.ORG
http://stopanimalid.org/
 
 
The National Animal Identification System (NAIS) is a national program to identify and track livestock animals, including poultry, horses, cattle, goats and sheep for the purpose of disease containment. NAIS plans to use ***** and GPS technology to track animals, and requires every farm or “premises” be registered with government agencies, even if that premises houses a single animal.
While NAIS’s purported goal of disease containment appears to be beneficial, the requirement for American citizens to register privately-owned property for tracking and monitoring purposes has very serious implications for our privacy, rights and freedoms.
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The part of the atrocity that we don’t hear much about is the total gov’t control to come onto your property 24/7 and inspect whatever they want to, take your animals, whether or not they are ill, and you have no recourse. This isn’t just tracking animals, this is losing all property rights, very similar to eminent domain laws. The only difference is that when they take your personal property be it chickens, goats, horses, whatever, they destroy it. AND you must pay them for this dubious honor and offer all your constitutional rights up on a silver platter. If one more person says to me that we all have to register our dogs, I think I’ll hurl! NOT THE SAME! I don’t register my dogs where I live, but if I did, by doing so, I am not signing on to have gov’t agents roam my property and destroy my dog for no reason if they want to do so! You are giving up all your privacy and property rights, people! Listen up!
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Comments: Sir: I am very upset and concerned over the U.S.Dept. of Ag. (USDA), forcing the new regulations of the “National Animal Identification System (NAIS) down Our Throats. In order to take away Our Freedoms of the 1st and 4th Amendments to the Constitution, as well as an infringement of Our Religious Rights under the 1st Amendment. I am also fearful of the religious implications regarding the “MARK OF THE BEAST” from the Bible, in forcing satellite ***** tracking chips to be put into our animals if they leave the property. Sir, are you a supporter of this Corporation Backed,unfavorable,USDA regulation,to control and wipe out the individual farm, and/or small farmer,or simply a PET OWNER, of small farm animals, that are NOT just pets, but part of the family living on the farm or acreage?! Pets for only their own use, on a small scale..? Why Horses? They are not in the Food Chain? Are you going to include dogs and cats, are they in the food chain too? How much Control is TOO MUCH Control? This Govt… wants to FREE IRAQ to a democracy, while the same Govt. Enslaves it’s own U.S. Citizens, with regulations that have no TRUE authority to impose $1,000 a day fines for non-compliance?! Sir, if the Government controls the Food Chain, then the Government Controls the People.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 15 2007 at 7:41pm
Ann you don't know how right you are. This is govt. run amok. I have 3 horses. If this stupid law goes into effect, I will have to chip my horses. Once chipped any time they leave my property I have to report to the government! Why?? Do we eat horses? Why should the gov. have to know if I want to go on a trail ride?? Will dog and cats be next??
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 15 2007 at 8:00pm
wolfgang2000 I couldn't have said it any better myself Ive got 4 horses and Really don't think we should have to report every time we leave to farm to go trail riding the way its set up you must report when you leave,when and where you arrive and then again when you return.
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