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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Forum.

It isn't nearly as bad as we think

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DeepThinker View Drop Down
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    Posted: March 25 2020 at 7:36am

Oxford Study: Coronavirus May Have Already Infected Half of U.K. Population


Diamond Princess taught us something that I think is missed by most.   They virus has an INSANELY high silent attack rate.   I am constantly reading about how many cases are asymptomatic.   Guys I am calling it now....   we are not just starting a severe outbreak but we are at the peak of a very mild one.   Only way to explain China going back to normal, only way to explain South Korea's success.


My guess is that only 1-100   people  who contract the virus get sick.   If so that would take the 3-4% CFR and drop it down to something like flu.    Maybe even lower.  We will know very soon who is right.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 7:45am

That would be incredibly good news.

I could then break out all the goodies and snacks i stocked up for later!

The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 7:48am

We NEED tests of large random samples of the population,  and we need serological  tests to test for immunity.  IMO it is absolutely criminal that we have destroyed our economy without either of those tools.     

My theory could easily been proven or disproven if we ran the correct tests.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 7:50am

Unfortunately we never had the testing capacity :(

Not sure we have it yet.

correction: you mean the antibody tests?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 7:58am

Let me emphasize....we are still learning about this novel virus, which spilled over to human populations via some zoonotic pathway (still not determined, bats are the likely host pathogen). 

At the outset, I emphasized the tendency of all virus infections to transmit most aggressively when the patient is in the "inapparent" state of the infection cycle = not symptomatic, but shedding virus like crazy.  By the time we are fully symptomatic, we are actually shedding less virus.  Please see:

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/covid-19/asymptomatic-carriers-covid-19-make-it-tough-target?elq_mid=11280&elq_cid=6089152

One thing is certain - as a novel zoonotic pathogen, this thing will circulate for several years.  Those who don't catch it now will catch it as it returns in a later season.   We are living through a natural experiment right now.  I'm tracking mutations, notice that we are seeing younger and younger cases, although mortality is primarily in the elderly.   

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 8:10am

Originally posted by pheasant pheasant wrote:

Unfortunately we never had the testing capacity :(

Not sure we have it yet.

correction: you mean the antibody tests?


Yes we did.   But we are only testing symptomatic cases, and before only testing people with a travel history.   We NEED to test random samples of the population.   In statstics, all you need is a random sample of about 1,000 to know with a high degree of certainty, even for the entire country.


Yes Antibody tests would be the gold standard, but even testing people showing no symptoms should also prove this theory.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (4) Thanks(4)   Quote bobisavirgin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 8:23am

Italy would like to have a word with you.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 8:25am

About 10% of tests for covid-19 come back as positive.   My guess is if you did random tests, your positive rates would be just about as high.


If you doubt me on this look at celebrities or important people in our society.   They are getting tested "out of an abundance of caution".     They are getting acess to tests that the general population doesn't have have.   A very high percentage come back positive.   Only 1 1,000 or even 1 in 10,000 should come back positive, but I bet you they are also close to the 10% rate.


Look at congress, look at the NBA,   look at any people in a position of power, a MUCH higher percent are coming back positive than should be. 


We are nearing the peak of a very mild outbreak, we are not just starting a very severe outbreak.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 8:30am

Originally posted by bobisavirgin bobisavirgin wrote:

Italy would like to have a word with you.

Honestly I don't know why Italy got it so bad... however they seem to be slowing down.    Their death rate like I said, is comparable to flu.  They will be done with the virus in a couple weeks.


If the virus was as bad as we think,   China should have milliions of deaths by now even with the crack down.   Yes maybe they covered up 10s of thousands of deaths, but now way in hell, in ths modern age, could they have covered up millions.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote bobisavirgin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 8:44am

It's all anecdotal but yes, I do believe China's deaths was at least 1-2mil.  It's much easier to cover things up behind the curtain of iron fisted communism.  The whole telecom numbers issue alone gives me chills, where at least 8+ million numbers were turned off due to non-payment in like one month, and those numbers are tied to each citizen's national ID and bank account.  Not to mention the portable incinerators and such.  I'm sure that's been discussed here somewhere, but I go back and forth to different forums so maybe not.

I know somebody in Italy, and you have no idea how bad it was.  Literally hell.  I don't know how they survived it honestly.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 9:06am

Define mild.  Do you mean mild compared to what was or mild compared to what could be.  H1N1 was mild.  With Covid-19, even though the recovery rate is 80%, it is a highly infectious disease with about 12% of those infected requiring hospitalization.  Some hospitals here in New York are overwhelmed.  The rest are on the precipice of being overwhelmed.  So mild is a relative term.  I have maintained from the beginning this wasn't society ending nor was it some Hollywood script.  But that doesn't mean once we're on the other side of this, it can by any means be called mild.

But taking your opinion that this is mild as pandemics go at face value, it's one hell of a good exercise for what could be.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 9:07am

Originally posted by bobisavirgin bobisavirgin wrote:

It's all anecdotal but yes, I do believe China's deaths was at least 1-2mil.  It's much easier to cover things up behind the curtain of iron fisted communism.  The whole telecom numbers issue alone gives me chills, where at least 8+ million numbers were turned off due to non-payment in like one month, and those numbers are tied to each citizen's national ID and bank account.  Not to mention the portable incinerators and such.  I'm sure that's been discussed here somewhere, but I go back and forth to different forums so maybe not.

I know somebody in Italy, and you have no idea how bad it was.  Literally hell.  I don't know how they survived it honestly.

Are you saying 1-2mllion deaths just in Hubei or throughout China?   Because I don't see any evidence of carnage outside of the Province.  1-2million deaths throughout China would be comparable to a very severe flu outbreak.    No way there was that many deaths in just Wuhan.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 9:11am

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

Define mild.  Do you mean mild compared to what was or mild compared to what could be.  H1N1 was mild.  With Covid-19, even though the recovery rate is 80%, it is a highly infectious disease with about 12% of those infected requiring hospitalization.  Some hospitals here in New York are overwhelmed.  The rest are on the precipice of being overwhelmed.  So mild is a relative term.  I have maintained from the beginning this wasn't society ending nor was it some Hollywood script.  But that doesn't mean once we're on the other side of this, it can by any means be called mild.

But taking your opinion that this is mild as pandemics go at face value, it's one hell of a good exercise for what could be.  

What I am saying... it is comparable to a very severe flu outbreak. NOT 10-20 times worse than flu.

Also....   flu death numbers are very exaggerated.   H1N1 by all observations was much worse than an average flu.  However because it was "pandemic", it was actually monitored and tested for, and  you know what?   They found less deaths than they usually reported with seasonal flu.  I don't buy it.  H1N1 was very severe.....   regular seasonal flu is much milder than most think.

Also the stats you point to are for those that are symptomatic.   I say the VAST majority of cases are asymptomatic.    If you are hospitalized with flu, you also have at least a 10% chance of dying.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 12:06pm

I'll take your word for it on your statistics.  But I believe the CDC reported only about 275,000 hospitalizations with H1N1 in the U.S.  over the course of a year.  Of course we haven't hit those numbers yet with Covid-19, but it hasn't run a year yet.  And Covid-19 is spreading way faster than H1N1 did.

Like I said, mild is relevant.  At least in my opinion.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 1:39pm

The article you referenced at the start of this post was written by a professor in theoretical epidemiology. In other words, not real epidemiology but just the theory side of it. She says that she thinks half of the uk has been infected. This can be instantly disproven by looking at the facts: Britain has tested over 90,000 people and if she's right, then 45,000 of them would have tested positive. The actual figure is 8,000 positive results. Therefore she's wrong and her paper is ridiculous.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Thorne! Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 2:29pm

Originally posted by DeepThinker DeepThinker wrote:

Oxford Study: Coronavirus May Have Already Infected Half of U.K. Population


Chris Martenson completely debunked that "study" in yesterday's presentation. Out of 94,000 tests their were only 8,000 positives. It the conclusions of that study were valid there would be 45,000 positives.

Didn't take deep thinking at all to do the math.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 4:46pm

What Thorne and KiwiMum said!  It's rubbish!


Oxford used to be a great university once.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote interwebber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 11:26pm

Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

Let me emphasize....we are still learning about this novel virus, which spilled over to human populations via some zoonotic pathway (still not determined, bats are the likely host pathogen). 

At the outset, I emphasized the tendency of all virus infections to transmit most aggressively when the patient is in the "inapparent" state of the infection cycle = not symptomatic, but shedding virus like crazy.  By the time we are fully symptomatic, we are actually shedding less virus.  Please see:

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/covid-19/asymptomatic-carriers-covid-19-make-it-tough-target?elq_mid=11280&elq_cid=6089152

One thing is certain - as a novel zoonotic pathogen, this thing will circulate for several years.  Those who don't catch it now will catch it as it returns in a later season.   We are living through a natural experiment right now.  I'm tracking mutations, notice that we are seeing younger and younger cases, although mortality is primarily in the elderly.   

Definitely wishing that the confirmed cases are far below the actual ones leading to a peak in severe cases coming soon. However, also worried about mutations in light of the natural experiment we are all living through right now. Does this thing mutate into something worse with all these new opportunities? Hoping it takes the path of least resistance and mutates into something like the common cold...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 1:13am

Italy’s fatality rate is at 10% right now. Seasonal flu is usually around 0.1-0.2%




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 1:44am

It is "not as bad as we think" because countries cannot keep up with testing.   Here is what the BBC (Live news) wrote about the situation in France


Originally posted by "BBC" "BBC" wrote:

France has recorded 1,331 deaths amid the coronavirus outbreak but there are fears the toll could be far higher.

Health authorities are only counting those who die in hospitals and are not performing post-mortems on unconfirmed cases. France's top health official, Jérôme Salomon, said hospital cases "probably represent a small part of the overall mortality".

News reports suggest nursing homes could be suffering a large number of deaths not included in the figures.


We will probably only get a good idea when this is past and the total mortality statistics for 2020 are compared with other years.   This will show the "excess deaths", and is similar to how they work out how many people have died from say a heat wave.   The final figures are likely to be much higher than the current 'official figures'  which require testing to have been done.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 5:24am

As my friend said you only know what you see.  We deliberately didn't test because we did not want to see the problem.  One of my friends is an emergency manager at a large fortune 500 company.  He told me to expect chaos.  he said that his employees saw the crematories in china .   He also told me that at least 20 million people just vanished. He is still trying to reach employees and subcontractors.  He had  multimillion dollar contracts that had to be cancelled .  he also saw how brutal  the party is in China.  They shot people who were sick rather than treating them.  it was so bad that the local CCP leadership was purged not once, but twice.  People knew to keep their mouths shut or they would be shot on the spot.   

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 6:45am

On the Diamond Princess a total of 8 people have died.   If you divide the number by known infections around 700 you get a CFR just about 1%,   HOWEVER We know for a fact that everyone doing food service on the boat tested positive.    That being considered I don't think it is crazy to assume that literally EVERYONE on board was exposed.    Only .002% of the total number of people on board died. 


We NEED serological testing!  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 7:05am

In all honestly if my math is correct it is a worse than I thought....  that would put the worst case scenario for the USA at about 600,000.


But you have to consider maybe some of those people died with the coronavirus, not from the coronavirus.   You also have to consider, that demographics on the ship over represented the elderly population.   So the death toll of the general population would be lower.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 7:07am

Interesting article about the administration’s refusal/failure to follow the NSC’s pandemic playbook.

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/03/25/trump-coronavirus-national-security-council-149285




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Lakeman5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 7:22am

Ive never seen the flu clog up hospitals like this. People dont get turned away from hospitals because its flu season. Doctors dont run out of ppe or ventilators in flu season. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (3) Thanks(3)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 8:50am

The economy has shut down, hospitals in affected countries/states are completely overwhelmed, and the streets are practically deserted because of lockdowns and quarantines, but yeah, it’s not too bad. You seem to be laser focused on numbers that nobody can verify at this point, and ignoring the fact that this is indeed  a pandemic with very real consequences for the world. I really don’t see the value in arguing the point when it’s clearly already a serious and still largely unpredictable situation, whether or not you think the numbers justify the response. The administration tried that for months when it should have been acting, and it only made the situation worse.





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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 9:16am

What Jacksdad said!  With the codicil that Trump's policies have improved lately.  

Just don't back the administration's stance if they are visibly veering off course again.  

Economies recover.  Corpses don't.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 9:20am

Well-said, JD and Techno.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 9:53am

To be honest, I’m still largely confused by Trump’s response as it shifts dramatically from day to day. He seems to heed the advice of his experts one day, then he talks about relaxing restrictions put in place to slow the spread. Lots of mixed messages and conflicting opinions when we need a clear, unified response.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lakeman5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 11:29am

Jacksdad, Im sure we could be friends and are no doubt more on the same page than not.  I have to wonder if you understood the point of my post since yours seems to be critiquing a point I didnt make. Probably, my fault if you didnt get what I was saying. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 11:31am

Oh, I thought JD was replying to DeepThinker.  Am I missing something?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lakeman5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 11:31am

Economies do recover and corpses dont but the corpses we will get as a result of a bad economy wont recover either. We cant ignore the economy and we must strike a balance. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lakeman5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 11:33am

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

Oh, I thought JD was replying to DeepThinker.  Am I missing something?

Ha, probably I did!  That would explain it. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 11:38am

If the government really want to they can print money.  The only people who can legally do so.  That does devalue the dollar, but this administration has already done it to prop up big companies - BEFORE THE OUTBREAK!!  It could cut down the billions owned by big traders though.  It still comes back to people or money.

Depressions only kill people when the government helps only the rich.


This is a tightrope for the administration to walk.  No one wants to be in a bankrupt country.  But there is such a thing as priorities.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lakeman5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 11:40am

Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:

To be honest, I’m still largely confused by Trump’s response as it shifts dramatically from day to day. He seems to heed the advice of his experts one day, then he talks about relaxing restrictions put in place to slow the spread. Lots of mixed messages and conflicting opinions when we need a clear, unified response.


I think those differing messages are the point.   He has to speak to different audiences.   when he makes a statement about the gravity of the situation the economy takes a hit but people need to be warned. when he reassures people the economy gets a boost but people may relax too much. I dont envy trying to give messages to all the different groups in the States, trying to be balanced, and knowing that no matter what he says someone is going to call him an idiot, a liar, evil, etc.    Some of those people are going to blame him both when he says one thing AND when he takes the other tone  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lakeman5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 11:45am

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

If the government really want to they can print money.  The only people who can legally do so.  That does devalue the dollar, but this administration has already done it to prop up big companies - BEFORE THE OUTBREAK!!  It could cut down the billions owned by big traders though.  It still comes back to people or money.

Depressions only kill people when the government helps only the rich.


This is a tightrope for the administration to walk.  No one wants to be in a bankrupt country.  But there is such a thing as priorities.


I agree and it scares me how much money we are going to print. Its going to hurt ... anyone who uses money. There are going to be people who are going to die because of the inflation we are going to get.

I think we agree we need to stop the spread and I think Trump will probably keep the economy hobbled even as he says he doesnt want to. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 2:34pm

Yeah - it was the original post, not yours 😉



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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote g0ldl10n Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 2:42pm

You know, I think you may be on to something.. look at this study out of Iceland..."However, there was a study in Iceland, which tested [a large segment of its] population, and 50% of the people who tested positive had no symptoms."

Link to study https://www.government.is/news/article/2020/03/15/Large-scale-testing-of-general-population-in-Iceland-underway/

Link to article: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.zmescience.com/medicine/iceland-testing-covid-19-0523/amp/

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Touchoftheblues Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 8:33pm

If we're at the peak right now then why is the US only coming up with 18% positive results in testing?  That's not even a random sampling of a population, it's a population that's most likely showing symptoms or have been in contact with a known patient therefore everyone tested has a high likelihood of carrying the disease.  Some states like Washington, which was looking like it would be the epicenter of the US, are only reporting 8% positive.  There are a lot of other ways to explain places like Germany or South Korea.  The asymptomatic people tested in Vo could have later turned out to show symptoms (that test was of a very small population anyway), reporting methods of deaths could be another reason, perhaps factoring in the lag time from contraction of Covid19 to time of death and comparing deaths to cases from an earlier time could be another.  

https://covidtracking.com/data/


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