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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Italy has peaked-Relax People

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DeepThinker View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Italy has peaked-Relax People
    Posted: March 25 2020 at 10:42am
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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 12:05pm

Maybe the drastic lock-downs have been shown to work.

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KiwiMum View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 1:41pm

It certainly hasn't peaked yet in the UK or the US. It's really just getting started there.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 1:51pm

Reality check here....this virus will now circulate again and again, in waves.  Folks who escaped infection will eventually be infected in a future wave, perhaps a year or two from now.  

https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

Relax if you wish, I'm not.  The population of Hong Kong relaxed and experienced a fresh surge of cases.  

We will all eventually become infected, facing three clinical pathways:

a) mild to asymptomatic illness of no consequence

b) severe acute respiratory syndrome, requiring hospitalization

c) death

This virus is going to hang around for quite a while.  Even when we end social distancing, I plan on maintaining my hand hygiene practices.  If you want to relax, I wish you well.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 2:00pm

Italian gov says they also had run out of kits to test people. Getting more Friday

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 2:04pm

i think you misread the article

US has third-highest number of confirmed cases globally behind China and Italy as WHO warns it could be next epicentre.

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The death toll in Italy from the coronavirus pandemic rose by 743 in one day to 6,820, reversing a declining trend in fatalities observed over the last two days.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote bobisavirgin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 2:19pm

One thing you have to understand about Italy is that it is basically like two separate countries.  North and south.  North is what we've been seeing.  The south looks like it might be just taking off.  The governor of Campania said that everything is on the brink of collapse and they need help.

This is from somebody that was working in the health care system in Lombardy, and he told me that not five minutes ago.  And he told me about how the bodies were being stored in the churches because the crematoriums were completely full.  And how they lost I think he said two ems drivers to it with several others out sick.  

In the next 10 days the south could explode and be just like what we saw in the north.  

I got all this straight from the source.  

Oh and to top it all off, the south's health care is far far worse than the north's.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Thorne! Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 2:24pm

Originally posted by Usk Usk wrote:

Italian gov says they also had run out of kits to test people. Getting more Friday

That is important information. Do you have a link?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2020 at 3:43am

[url]https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/rex-block-upper-low-flooding-south-italy-mk/[/url] This will make things worse;

A potentially dangerous setup is unfolding across the southern Mediterranean today and tonight. In response to a deepening upper low, a pronounced surface low and frontal system is spreading across southern Italy, resulting in excessive rainfall and flooding threat across Calabria and Sicily region – locally 150-200 mm seems possible until Friday, increasing dangerous flash floods and landslides!

The system is greatly visible on the satellite images, with a pronounced dry intrusion from Tunisia and Libya towards southern Italy this afternoon. Central pressure is around 995 mbar, near Malta and it continues falling.

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2020 at 5:51am

[url]https://www.rt.com/news/484278-italy-coronavirus-peak-not-reached/[/url]

Italy has yet to see the worst of the coronavirus pandemic spreading through the country, a senior health official has warned, a day after more than 700 people died in a single 24-hour period.

“We haven’t reached the peak and we haven’t passed it,” the head of the Superior Health Institute, Silvio Brusaferro, told a press conference on Friday. He noted, however, that there were “signs of a slowdown” in the number of infections, suggesting that the health crisis could turn a corner soon.

Figures released on Thursday showed 712 new Covid-19 deaths, bringing the nationwide total to 8,215.

Brusaferro said that Italy’s ability to recover from the pandemic will depend on whether Italians continue to obey lockdown measures.

Italy currently has the highest number of infections in Europe, and is third worldwide after the United States and China, according to a tally maintained by Johns Hopkins University. Cases worldwide have surpassed 500,000, with more than 24,000 deaths.

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#page-top[/url] cases already over 550.000-going fast !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2020 at 6:10am

It might peak soon in the North of Italy, but what happens if it gets going in the South of the country?   


This virus seems to like creating clusters, and not spreading evenly around the place!  The first cluster was in the north.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (4) Thanks(4)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2020 at 1:29pm

Even if I was in Italy, I wouldn’t be relaxing right now. Apart from New York, the US hasn’t even begun to see what this virus can do. Far too early to get complacent.


PS For reference, I work in healthcare (direct patient care) and we are anything but relaxed right now.






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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2020 at 1:33pm

Over 900 deaths in Italy IN THE LAST 24 HOURS ALONE!

Source BBC.

Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pandemic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2020 at 1:43pm

Originally posted by DeepThinker DeepThinker wrote:

The rate of new infections in Italy slows for a fourth day


I suggest you take another look now. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2020 at 1:43pm




Take care JD

Wishful thinking..... 

It's not over till 

WU says it is.......

🤝🖖


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Penham Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2020 at 5:38pm

Over 900 deaths in the last 24 hours, it keeps going up everyday

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bobisavirgin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2020 at 6:57pm

Not being mean, but did nobody read the post I made 2 days ago in this very thread?  

We knew it was going to start getting worse.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2020 at 7:50pm

I stand by what I said.   New cases are STILL down.   We always knew that deaths lag new infections by a couple weeks.   Yes the daily deaths are up.... these people got sick awhile ago.   I would bet money that deaths will start falling soon.    I doubt they get to 20k deaths.   Yes that sounds like a very bad number but not nearly as bad as projections just a week or two ago.  At most we are looking at an illness that is 2x or 3x as bad as flu, not 10x or 20x as bad.


I would also bet that most of  the USA will peak in 2 weeks, 3 weeks tops.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2020 at 12:13am

Originally posted by DeepThinker DeepThinker wrote:

I stand by what I said.   New cases are STILL down.   We always knew that deaths lag new infections by a couple weeks.   Yes the daily deaths are up.... these people got sick awhile ago.   I would bet money that deaths will start falling soon.    I doubt they get to 20k deaths.   Yes that sounds like a very bad number but not nearly as bad as projections just a week or two ago.  At most we are looking at an illness that is 2x or 3x as bad as flu, not 10x or 20x as bad.


I would also bet that most of  the USA will peak in 2 weeks, 3 weeks tops.


There is a huge difference between Italy and the US and that is that Italy is in strict lockdown. The US isn't. It'll be interesting to see where the US is in 3 weeks time, particularly since Trump wants all Americans back to work by Easter.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2020 at 3:31am

I think we are looking for hope, but we must not get carried away with just a few days worth of statistics


Italy new cases (From WHO Situation Reports)

27th March    6 153

26th March    5 210

25th March    5 249

24th March    4 789

23rd March    5 560

22nd March    6 667

21st March     5 986

20th March     5 322

19th March     4 207

18th March     3 526


The daily figures seem to be bouncing around, so we must not count our chickens before they hatch and we must remember that one swallow does not a summer make.  


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2020 at 5:21am

Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

The US isn't. It'll be interesting to see where the US is in 3 weeks time, particularly since Trump wants all Americans back to work by Easter.


I heard that although Trump hasn't retracted the "back to work by Easter", I did see he changed his messaging by saying "People before the Economy" in yesterday's news briefing.  Time will tell if that messaging gets mixed in future press briefings. 

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