June updates

-

-[url]https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/canada-reports-first-h5n5-avian-flu-mammal-us-reports-more-h5n1-animals[/url] or https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/canada-reports-first-h5n5-avian-flu-mammal-us-reports-more-h5n1-animals 

-[url]https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-avian-flu-virus-h5n5-raccoons-1.6861818[/url] or https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-avian-flu-virus-h5n5-raccoons-1.6861818 

DJ-Spread of H5-flu types in mammals should be a major concern...

CoViD is far from over...not testing, so less sequencing may give a false impression. 

and

"SARS" killing babies in Brazil...innate immunity-from their mothers-not effective enough...

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data New self reprted UK cases for may 31 dropped under 55,000...Do symptoms change ? Are people tired of CoViD ? Or are cases realy dropping in numbers ? 

Gina

@Saffiya_Khan1

·

May 28

“Those with multiple infections were 3.5 times more likely to develop lung problems, 3 times more likely to have heart conditions, and 1.6 times more likely to have brain changes than people who had only had COVID-19 once”

The long term damage seems to be very major...

....[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/06/eurosurveillance-severe-and-fatal.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/06/eurosurveillance-severe-and-fatal.html 

see [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Echovirus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Echovirus 

More "unusual news";

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/sweden/974986-sweden-not-bird-flu-that-killed-wild-birds-in-the-west[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/sweden/974986-sweden-not-bird-flu-that-killed-wild-birds-in-the-west Did high waves kill seabirds near Iceland ? 

and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/h5n1-tracking-ab/chile/974982-chile-mysterious-death-of-hundreds-of-sea-birds-h5n1-flu-ruled-out[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/h5n1-tracking-ab/chile/974982-chile-mysterious-death-of-hundreds-of-sea-birds-h5n1-flu-ruled-out ;

"Something is happening in the sea": They rule out the main hypothesis about the massive death of birds

The presence of avian influenza in the specimens was ruled out, so a multisectoral meeting will be convened to see the steps to follow.
In recent days, almost a thousand dead birds have been found on the Coquimbo coastline, specifically between the Casino Enjoy sector and Changa beach.
Given the unusual fact, the SAG began an investigation to determine the cause of the massive death of the specimens, ruling out the presence of Avian Influenza, one of the first hypotheses that was considered.

"We have continued doing field work, we visit the places daily, mainly the coastal border of La Serena and Coquimbo to follow the protocol, we sample and send to our laboratory and await the results," they detailed about the work done.
Meanwhile, they added that "regarding what we obtained from this large number of dead birds, they all came out negative, so the cause of death in this case is not related to avian influence."
Finally, they indicated that for now they will convene an intersectoral meeting with CONAF, Sernapesca and municipalities to address the phenomenon.
"Something is happening in the sea and it must be the people with the greatest competence who manage to get to the cause of what is generating the excessive death of these birds, which are unusual episodes but no one guarantees that it will be the last that could happen again. this type, we hope that this is not the case," they concluded.
https://www.diarioeldia.cl/region/20...��

DJ, is there another virus spreading in seabirds...from Chile to Iceland ????

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/974979-cidrap-more-than-1-in-6-unvaccinated-covid-survivors-report-symptoms-for-up-to-2-years[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/974979-cidrap-more-than-1-in-6-unvaccinated-covid-survivors-report-symptoms-for-up-to-2-years ;

COVID-19 Up to 18% of unvaccinated COVID-19 survivors have persistent symptoms as long as 2 years after infection, suggests an ongoing Swiss study published yesterday in BMJ.

University of Zurich researchers led the observational study, a comparison of 1,106 unvaccinated adults 6, 12, 18, and 24 months after COVID-19 infection with 628 uninfected controls. The team surveyed participants at eight time points about 23 long-COVID symptoms, their severity, and their perceived relevance to their infection.

Infected participants were, on average, 50 years old and had tested positive for wild-type COVID-19 from August 6, 2020, to January 19, 2021; 86.0% had had symptoms, and 4.3% had been hospitalized for their infections. Uninfected participants were, on average, 65 years old. Just over half (51.2%) of participants were women.

DJ..there were no vaccines available at that time !

Most patients improved over time

Of all participants, 55.3% reported a return to health within 1 month after infection, and 17.6% said they had recovered within 1 to 3 months.

At 6 months, 22.9% of participants said they hadn't recovered, declining to 18.5% at 12 months and 17.2% at 24 months. Those reporting symptoms at 6 months said their symptoms had mild (16.2%), moderate (3.6%), or severe (2.7%) effects on their health. At 24 months, the severity of health impairment declined, with 10.4% reporting mild, 3.9% reporting moderate, and 1.9% experiencing severe health impairment.

Most participants reported that they continued to recover (68.4%) or had better overall health (13.5%) over time. But 5.2% said their health worsened, and 4.4% had periods of both recovery and regression.

A total of 8.9% of participants said they had symptoms at all four follow-up times, and 12.5% reported alternating symptomatic and symptom-free periods. Participants who reported symptoms or worsened symptoms at all follow-up points tended to be 65 or older (45.7% vs 34.1%) or have underlying medical conditions (58.8% vs 27.5%).

Relative to participants with unchanged or worse health status, a higher proportion of those who improved were younger than 65 years (55.6% vs 40.1%), and a lower percentage had post-exertion malaise (27.3% vs 40.6%) at 6 months.

Excess risk was 17% at 6 months

More COVID-19 survivors than controls had symptoms at 6 months (adjusted risk difference [excess risk], 17.0%). Excess risk for some symptoms in infected participants was 2% to 10%, with the greatest excess risks for altered taste or smell (9.8%), post-exertion malaise (9.4%), fatigue (5.4%), shortness of breath (7.8%), and impaired concentration (8.3%) and memory (5.7%).

The prevalence of symptoms was roughly the same at 6 months and 24 months—51.7% and 51.0%, respectively. But the prevalence of symptoms considered related to COVID-19 fell from 28.9% at 6 months to 20.3% at 12 months and 18.1% at 24 months.

Most participants reporting COVID-19 symptoms (89.2%) also reported nonrecovery at 24 months, but 5.8% said they had fully recovered. Fatigue, post-exertion malaise, altered taste or smell, shortness of breath, and impaired concentration or memory were the most common symptoms at all time points.

"Although not all adverse outcomes were necessarily attributed to COVID-19, our findings imply that a sizable number of people might be affected by post–COVID-19 condition and have protracted health issues for many months after infection," the study authors wrote. "Nevertheless, the rates of recovery and the overall improvement in the severity of participants' health impairment over time might also provide some hope for affected individuals."

The researchers said their findings highlight the value of infection prevention and underscore the need for effective treatments to reduce the burden on long-COVID patients and the healthcare system and for solidly designed future trials.

Although not all adverse outcomes were necessarily attributed to COVID-19, our findings imply that a sizable number of people might be affected by post–COVID-19 condition and have protracted health issues for many months after infection.

"Use of multiple outcome measures and consideration of the expected rates of recovery and heterogeneity in symptom trajectories are important in the design and interpretation of clinical trials," they wrote.

A 'global public health crisis'

In a related commentary, Qiao Wu, a PhD candidate at the University of Southern California, called long COVID "a global public health crisis" and said that future treatments, clinical trials, and policy interventions will depend on high-quality population-level data.

"Further studies focusing on more recent phases of the pandemic, and accounting for complexities (eg, more virus strains, vaccination statuses, and reinfections), will be particularly valuable," Wu wrote.

"Additionally, in view of the complexity of symptom trajectories and the unique disease burden experienced by each individual patient with post–COVID-19 condition, patients should be more closely involved in the design and conduct of these studies going forward."

we may see lots more studies on the long term effects of CoViD both in unvaccinated and vaccinated groups...[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ still reporting excess deaths in under 14 y/o age group (unvaccinated most) above 2021, 2022 levels...Germany low excess deaths...Other statistics hint at heigher numbers of excess deaths...

Another statistic may be long term sick leave...hospital/GP statistics [url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/05/31/remarkable-increase-people-memory-concentration-problems[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/05/31/remarkable-increase-people-memory-concentration-problems 

It -for now- is getting harder to get a realistic view on the global health issues...

[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/ lots of H5 stories;

[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/06/chp-reports-mainland-h5n6-infection.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/06/chp-reports-mainland-h5n6-infection.html H5N6-human case

[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/06/h5n1-only-constant-is-change.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/06/h5n1-only-constant-is-change.html On how H5N1 is very widespread in birds, mammals-a growing risk...

[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/06/uk-hairs-risk-assessment-avian.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/06/uk-hairs-risk-assessment-avian.html UK mammals with H5N1

DJ-Due to unseen high level of spread in both birds and mammals H5 could "transform" into a major pandemic risk...Not a "new" story...

Of course CoViD is out of control as well;

Jess

@MeetJess

·

16h

‘Stay home’: Warning over new Covid wave Australia records 37,448 new Covid-19 cases as winter begins A winter warning for Covid-19 is under way across Australia as tens of thousands of people contract the virus.

It is winter in the "global south"...CoViD also spreading in mammals (some mammals may end up with flu-types and SARS-2...)...a "ticking time bomb"...

translation; We did reach a new low. At the moment we get more info about "our" variants from the US, South Korea -testing travelers- than we get from the NL-CDC. There are 31 (NL) samples on GISAID for week 20/21. Of them 14 are Amsterdam Universtity Medical Center (UMC), 9 from US/South Korea,and (only) 8 from NL-CDC....

May reflect how bad surveilance has become...How can sequencing still be meaningfull if there is so little testing ? DJ-Impression I get is even hospital CoViD cases may NOT see testing...("pandemic is over"-"religion"). 

So -are we ready for a H5-like flu pandemic ? No...denial as a strategy...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5gY0SFXQho[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5gY0SFXQho The duran;

Decline of the EU w/ MEP Clare Daly, Alexander Mercouris and Glenn Diesen

DJ, In Brussel-Belgium there are 60,000 lobbyists working for war-industry, big pharma...to get Euro-billions..."industry owned media" make or break politicians...

So "problems have to bring profits" tax money going into private hands funding politics/media..."neo liberal dictatorship"...

From non-sterilizing vaccines to wars...it is profit that counts. 

UK spent just one day in a whole decade planning for a coronavirus pandemic. Fail to prepare, prepare to fail....

link; [url]https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-spent-just-one-day-in-a-whole-decade-planning-for-a-coronavirus-pandemic-covid-inquiry-expected-to-hear-2398455[/url] or https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/uk-spent-just-one-day-in-a-whole-decade-planning-for-a-coronavirus-pandemic-covid-inquiry-expected-to-hear-2398455 

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DJ [url]https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-on-covid-19---8-june-2023[/url] or https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-on-covid-19---8-june-2023 has links to REPORTED  human cases....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/935797-the-pandemic%E2%80%99s-true-death-toll-millions-more-than-official-counts-excess-deaths-thread?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/935797-the-pandemic%E2%80%99s-true-death-toll-millions-more-than-official-counts-excess-deaths-thread?view=stream latest-France;

53,800 more deaths than expected in 2022: higher excess mortality than in 2020 and 2021

Nathalie Blanpain (INSEE)

In 2022, the observed deaths significantly exceeded those expected in the absence of a Covid-19 epidemic or other unusual events such as episodes of influenza or extreme heat, etc.

Excess mortality, i.e. the excess of observed deaths over those expected, was slightly higher in 2022 (8.7%) than in 2021 (6.9%) and 2020 (7.8%). Yet, probably thanks to vaccination and herd immunity, the Covid-19 epidemic was less deadly in 2022: there were 38,300 deaths of people with Covid-19 in hospitals and establishments for elderly according to Public Health France, significantly less than in 2021 (59,100). The number of death certificates with a “Covid-19” mention is also falling. Deaths from causes other than Covid-19 therefore increased in 2022. The year uncharacteristically had two episodes of influenza, due to a late epidemic in March-April and an early one in December. Extreme heat events in summer caused more deaths in 2022 than in 2021.

Finally, the Covid-19 epidemic may have led to an increase in deaths since 2020 due to indirect effects, such as postponements of operations, a drop in screening for other diseases, etc. However, these possible impacts have not yet been measured. There may also be an interruption or pause in the downward trend in mortality at each age, but it is not yet possible to identify it.

DJ, excess deaths may give an indication of where we are healthwise...Long term illness is another indication. 

By now NOT reporting, NOT testing leads to very limited sequencing..."the story is under control"...

I only hope the healthcrisis also is "under control"....

and

DJ, So...is the CoViD risk limited enough to ignore the risks ? Lots of regions still seem to have lots of cases. International travel may bring new variants to area's with limited/no protection...

antonio gonzalez

@poetricus2

·

18h

El medallista de oro olímpico en ciclismo y campeón mundial Filippo Ganna ha tenido que dejar el ciclismo. Se infectó de Cov1d en el Giro de Italia hace un mes y ahora tiene cov1d persistente.

In short cycling champion Ganna stopped cycling suffering from persistent CoViD he catched at the Giro de Italia....(may this year) 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/polish-study-reveals-that-sars-cov-2-impairs-human-natural-killer-nk-cells-through-the-activation-of-the-llt1-cd161-axis[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/polish-study-reveals-that-sars-cov-2-impairs-human-natural-killer-nk-cells-through-the-activation-of-the-llt1-cd161-axis 

and 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-even-asymptomatic-sars-cov-2-infections-cause-dna-methylation-and-epigenetic-changes,-leading-to-immune-dysregulation[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-even-asymptomatic-sars-cov-2-infections-cause-dna-methylation-and-epigenetic-changes,-leading-to-immune-dysregulation 

warn for damage to immunity after CoViD infection. On top of long term other damage-all over the body-CoViD is a real major health risk. Maybe in many ways a "time bomb" that will show its damage in the coming years...

So 

-Hospitals in many places may no longer be in crisis mode

-Excess deaths may be limited, (and related more to heatwaves...however long CoViD and heatwaves are a bad combination. Wild fires and lung damage = bad !)

-Symptoms may no longer be that clear [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data may not be able to detect CoViD...symptoms changed

-Waste water/testing may even be confronted with CoViD escaping testing...

Again both CoViD and H5N1 spreading in mammals is bad news...it will come (back) to humans soon...

Yuri Deigin

@ydeigin

·

Jun 13

Another bombshell for Covid origins: “[US govt sources claim that] three of the earliest people to become infected with SARS-CoV-2 were Ben Hu, Yu Ping, and Yan Zhu.” Those are WIV coronavirus genetic engineers from Shi Zhengli’s team. https://public.substack.com/p/first-people-sickened-by-covid-19

DJ, The US keeps claiming/blaming China for "starting a pandemic" when reality is countries have their own responsibilities on border control...Global flying even did NOT stop after the 2020 [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_China[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_China ;

On 23 January 2020, the central government of China imposed a lockdown in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei in an effort to quarantine the center of an outbreak of COVID-19; this action was commonly referred to as the Wuhan lockdown (Chinese: 武汉封城; pinyin: Wǔhàn fēng chéng). The World Health Organization (WHO), although stating that it was beyond its own guidelines, commended the move, calling it "unprecedented in public health history".^[2]

DJ, it may take time before we can claim to fully understand how SARS-2 started, what relation it has/had with 2003-SARS1, etc.

[url]https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.581569/full[/url] or https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.581569/full ;

it may have been slowly developing for years...The US is poisening/destroying international relations by blind confrontation foreign "policies"....

The same lack of thinking showing up in both NATO expansion wars (Ukraine, Syria) and how "the NATO west" is NOT dealing with climate, pandemics...

and

DJ, the WHO is sticking to naming all new variants "Omicron" because that variant would end the pandemic....

CoViD (re)infection is weakening immunity...so lots of other diseases can get more room for spread...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/cleveland-clinic-study-discovers-hilarious-twist-those-not-up-to-date-on-covid-19-vaccination-had-lower-risk-of-infection,-challenging-vaccine-efficac[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/cleveland-clinic-study-discovers-hilarious-twist-those-not-up-to-date-on-covid-19-vaccination-had-lower-risk-of-infection,-challenging-vaccine-efficac  may be linked to [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-omicron-sublineages-could-be-using-a-new-viral-invasion-strategy-with-multiple-types-of-matrix-metalloproteinases[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-omicron-sublineages-could-be-using-a-new-viral-invasion-strategy-with-multiple-types-of-matrix-metalloproteinases 

The CoViD-virus finding new ways to get into the host...maybe some new vaccines offer protection if the virus had developed in another direction (in some area's). ...

I think by now even the best experts may find it hard to get an even basic view....[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports there could be THOUSENDS !!!! of variants all named Omicron...

-----------

H5N1

[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/06/eid-journal-low-susceptibility-of-pigs.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/06/eid-journal-low-susceptibility-of-pigs.html ;

That report was followed a week later by a report (see Study: Seroconversion of a Swine Herd in a Free-Range Rural Multi-Species Farm against HPAI H5N1 2.3.4.4b Clade Virus) at a `mixed species' farm (poultry & swine) in Italy.

Similar concerns were voiced 2 months ago, in the ECDC/EFSA Avian Influenza Overview December 2022 – March 2023 which warned:

The additional reports of transmission events to and potentially between mammals, e.g. mink, sea lion, seals, foxes and other carnivores as well as seroepidemiological evidence of transmission to wild boar and domestic pigs, associated with evolutionary processes including mammalian adaptation are of concern and need to be closely followed up.

This is not a new concern (see below), but HPAI H5's recent affinity for spilling over into mammals has raised the stakes.

-

While H5 infection in pigs appears rare, between extremely limited testing, and the fact that H5N1 tends to be asymptomatic (or mildly symptomatic) in pigs, it may be more common than we realize. 

Yesterday the CDC's EID journal published a report on experimental infection of pigs with an H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b virus conducted by the Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut in Germany. 

Reassuringly they found that exposed pigs demonstrated only a low susceptibility to infection with the virus strain used. 

At first glance, this would seem to be great news, but it comes with a significant caveat.  The authors  wrote (underlining mine):

Overall, we conclude that pigs are unlikely vehicles in transmitting this genotype of HPAI virus H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b among pigs and across interfaces.

Followed by:

However, considering the ongoing massive panzootic of this virus, a plethora of new genotypes of the circulating strain is emerging, with possibly higher permissiveness for pigs.  

Since HPAI H5N1 continues to evolve rapidly (see H5N1: The Only Constant is Change), it is reasonable to assume the properties of the strain used in this study could differ from the scores of other genotypes that currently circulate around the globe, and those that will inevitably follow. 

-

Everything we can say about the behavior and threat of avian flu is based on limited data, much of which is months (or even years) old by the time it gets published.  Our ability to monitor - in real time - what is happening with avian flu is severely limited. 

Not only are there vast swaths of the planet where little or no surveillance is being done, there are many countries that - for economic, societal, or political reasons -  are slow to share what they know.  

At the same time that H5N1's evolution has sped up, our ability to keep up has diminished.  And that is a dangerous position to be in.

DJ, I think it is very likely H5N1 may be -at low numbers- spreading in humans-so far without major symptoms...Lots of countries simply do not have the means for good enough public healthcare...with those kept poor running the highest risks (often sharing housing with poultry...). 

So it will be a matter of time before we see H2H=Human to Human spread of H5N1 or a flu-variant linked to it...[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/seasonal-flu-2009-2013-1-2-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aa/brazil/974299-brazil-outbreak-of-respiratory-syndromes-in-amapa-16-cities-enter-an-emergency-situation?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/seasonal-flu-2009-2013-1-2-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aa/brazil/974299-brazil-outbreak-of-respiratory-syndromes-in-amapa-16-cities-enter-an-emergency-situation?view=stream 

A mix of diseases-several pandemics interacting-can become a very major problem within months...Related;

[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2023/06/articles/animals/birds/h5n5-avian-influenza-in-mammals-canada/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2023/06/articles/animals/birds/h5n5-avian-influenza-in-mammals-canada/ ;

While we’re in the midst of an unprecedented international outbreak of H5N1 avian flu (with ongoing spillover into mammals), there’s a new kid on the block: H5N5 influenza. I think recent reports of H5N5 were glossed over by some who didn’t realize we’re talking about a different strain from the H5N1 we’ve been dealing with the last couple of years. While it’s not necessarily a game-changer, we need to pay attention to new strains like this.

The story starts with the finding of H5N5 flu in birds in Atlantic Canada, which started in January 2023. The genetic makeup of the virus indicates it’s a Eurasian lineage that’s circulating in birds in Europe. It’s suspected that it made it to Canada via migratory birds last fall.

More recently, and more concerningly, this H5N5 strain was identified in two raccoons in Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island. As far as I know, this is the first report of H5N5 in mammals. Presumably the raccoons were infected from eating infected birds, which is how we suspect most mammalian wildlife with H5N1 get infected too.

-

Regardless, the presence of yet another avian flu strain and more spillover into mammals is a bit disconcerting, to say the least. Recent genetic study of this H5N5 virus has indicated that it’s likely also capable of long-term circulation in birds and recombination with other flu viruses, so this is a virus to watch.

That’s not to say that we’re heading into a massive H5N5 outbreak. It’s one more flu virus in the mix, one more flu virus with the potential to recombine with other (human, avian, swine, equine, canine, etc.) flu viruses, and one more flu virus that can (even in its current state) spillover into mammals. So we need to stay on alert. There are lots of influenza viruses out there: some are nasty, they are prone to changing, and sometimes that can be bad for humans or other species.

DJ, co-infection with different types of flu may result in new flu-variants that are more dangerous...

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ZOE [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data still very low...Are the symptoms still the same ? ( [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ has become useless...) 

One could think of several kinds of "pandemic scenario's". The most optimistic one claims we have a major pandemic once every hundred years...So the Spanish Flu (maybe timing 1917-1923 may cover it...the H1N1 virus behind it showed up later on-doing less damage) and CoViD-19 are exceptional...A next major pandemic maybe  around 2120 ? 

DJ-I would love to believe that view....

Myself I go for "pandemic-pause" scenario....The main reason we now do not see massive healthcare crises in many places may be related to CoViD (and H5N1) spreading in mammals...It will return to humans within months...

Another "story" that keeps showing up is "lab-leak"....at best this is a serious discussion on safety of lab, gain-of-function studies...Often it is a "blame (China) game"....My view; Even if there would be a virus "leaking/escaping" from a lab...in most cases it will need several steps to become a pandemic...

There will be a lot of study (needed) to see if SARS-1 (2003) MERS, other corona virusses are linked-in anyway-to CoViD 19/SARS-2...Did SARS-1 end up in animals (bats) develop/mutate further to become a major risk for humans 15 years later ? 

Of course it may be hard to even find the first human CoViD-19 case..Indications are it may have been around in several places first half of 2019...In many ways it would be "very welcome" if CoViD could be linked/limited to Wuhan...either the animal market or a bio-lab...History may indicate these things are NEVER easy....

Patient-Led Research Collaborative

@patientled

·

May 16

Overall, the prevalence of mental health outcomes in #LongCovid and non-LC: Anxiety:  25.2% in LC, 16.7% in non-LC Depression: 32.7% in LC, 21.8% in non-LC Suicidal thoughts: 17.2% in LC, 10.8% in non-LC

and

DJ, lots of things we did see as basic, from healthcare to schools, became much less certain...Insecurity is a motor behind anti-social behavior. Governments and healthcare need to be open and honest on pandemics...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/spanish-study-reveals-the-role-of-vagus-nerve-dysfunction-caused-by-sars-cov-2-in-post-covid-19-conditions[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/spanish-study-reveals-the-role-of-vagus-nerve-dysfunction-caused-by-sars-cov-2-in-post-covid-19-conditions 

There is lots of science on Long CoViD...it may not be able to explain all the healthissues but may offer some basic understanding...However "politics" only seem to be interested in the costs...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/06/19/90000-still-severely-suffering-long-term-covid-symptoms[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/06/19/90000-still-severely-suffering-long-term-covid-symptoms ;

Tens of thousands of people are still suffering from long-term health problems after an infection of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. The approach to helping these people must be improved, said the Social Impact Team (MIT). The group of advisors told the Cabinet that there should be more knowledge about long-term Covid-19 symptoms and that they should have better access to more services, including healthcare and education.

It is estimated that 90,000 residents of the Netherlands are severely limited by long-lasting symptoms of the coronavirus disease. They encounter barriers and incomprehension, said the MIT in their long-awaited advice, which was released on Monday. The team called the complaints "disruptive" both for physical and mental health, but also for an individual’s household, family life, social life and work.

The MIT was set up last summer to produce advice on the broad social and economic impact of any new measures to tackle an epidemic or pandemic in the future. On Monday morning, MIT Chair Jolande Sap handed over the advice to Social Affairs Minister Karien van Gennip. Sap referred to all of the “harrowing stories" about people who are severely limited by long-term Covid symptoms.

In conversations with patients, the MIT saw "a great deal of mistrust, indignation and anger" at the Cabinet’s action and inaction during and following the pandemic. They should be listened to more often when planning and implementing policy, according to the MIT.

DJ [url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/06/18/covid-19-longer-classified-top-infectious-disease-says-health-minister[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/06/18/covid-19-longer-classified-top-infectious-disease-says-health-minister -my view- each day mild initial infections lead to Long CoViD ;

and

DJ; "saving the economy/profits" in the short term may end up in billions of costs on the longer time..."penny wise-pound foolish"....

another form of widespread insanity is "natural immunity offers protection"...it is "good" if children catch CoViD...

-CoViD may do lots of damage

-natural immunity -if any- is short lived...

DJ-I find the present situation- on health, wars, climate, very depressing...So I limit the time getting informed...