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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Let Me Try and Understand This

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FluMom View Drop Down
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    Posted: March 21 2020 at 4:22pm

OK so this virus started in China they have about 3200 deaths and the U.S. is looking at a possible 1 million to 2 million dead.  How does that work?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 4:24pm

The Chinese are clearly lying about how many died 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 5:00pm

Yes, I understand they lied so the only real numbers we can count on is Italy.  We need to use there numbers to extrapolate what is going on here...not that I am smart enough to do any of that but let's face it we need to know using only Italy!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 6:20pm

I'm sorry Flumom, this is all i have for you, And I'm too tired to be eloquent right now:

So I'll be concise, The Italian numbers are real and startling. We should be way below them, but even if we are 1/3 of the Italian numbers we are above 1918 both in CFR, and Ro ...........nuff said.....extrapolate what you must, but this is a big deal.......

The show stopper is, and only is, if we can bend the curve with social distancing at this point...considering the lack of preparation.

Sadly the only other hope is if somehow, in someway the CFR, and Ro are different in America for some unknown reason........that's a long shot. 

Im hoping someone can show how the synopsis above is flawed.

The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 6:21pm

Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

OK so this virus started in China they have about 3200 deaths and the U.S. is looking at a possible 1 million to 2 million dead.  How does that work?

The Chinese did some things to stomp out the virus that we, as a liberal society, tend not to do.  They made it illegal to show your face on the street, and you could have been shot on sight for doing that. 

That simple.  Here, we have idiot kids dancing around on the beaches, getting drunk & laid, laughing about Corona Virus and getting infected.  

The 2 million is a prediction based on the model, if you want to read it, it is at this link:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

On Page 7 of 20, it says:  The key is "unmitigated."

In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.

 The key is "unmitigated." With ongoing isolation orders in CA, IL, NY, CT etc., we are pursuing mitigation steps, so the 2 M dead is not quite as likely.  

HOWEVER, this pandemic will NOT be completely broken without a vaccine or effective anti-viral, and these are months away.  Every human being is vulnerable to this thing (unless you are a recovered case, in which case you have immunity), so we are all at risk for quite a while. 

CRS, DrPH
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lakeman5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 6:50pm

Many countries have differing percentages of people dying. Sometimes the numbers are cooked, like in China, Iran, and ,yes, the US.

Italy may have a different strain. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 8:24pm

I've just read on Facebook that China has noted a loss of 8.1 million mobile phone accounts in the last 2 months. Did those people die I wonder?

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 8:41pm

Originally posted by Lakeman5 Lakeman5 wrote:

Many countries have differing percentages of people dying. Sometimes the numbers are cooked, like in China, Iran, and ,yes, the US.

Italy may have a different strain. 

Given international travel virtually every country probably has multiple strains of the virus.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 9:07pm

Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

I've just read on Facebook that China has noted a loss of 8.1 million mobile phone accounts in the last 2 months. Did those people die I wonder?

KiwiMum - I think you missed a calling in life, you'd make a great detective!  I would think this is probably about as close to a real count that we might ever see...  

If it's to be - it's up to me!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 9:23pm

See that would make more sense 8.1 million in China dead...5 million is even a reasonable number!  Then I could believe 1 - 2 million here!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 6:31am

Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

I've just read on Facebook that China has noted a loss of 8.1 million mobile phone accounts in the last 2 months. Did those people die I wonder?


I imagine with lockdown, people weren't getting paid and shutting down unnecessary accounts.. like for kids  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 6:46am

Perhaps a bit of both.

Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 7:37am

Exactly Miss.... 


So the number is somewhere between 3 261 and 8 100 000.   That is a huge spread, and not much in helping determine how things might go in our neck of the world.   Any way to get a better handle on China's data?   Although at this stage getting Chinese data is a bit late -  looking to neighbouring countries (Sweden, Norway etc) for some guide, but not looking East*


* Russia needs to hold its figures down to let Putin win a referendum to allow him to stay in power for the rest of his life. Putin is playing the virus risk down shaking hands with everyone (except anyone getting close to him has to be tested for Corvid-19 before they are allowed anywhere near).  Putin seems to know the seriousness of it, but is putting his country at great risk so he can hold on to power.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Turboguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 9:00am

Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

OK so this virus started in China they have about 3200 deaths and the U.S. is looking at a possible 1 million to 2 million dead.  How does that work?

The Chinese did some things to stomp out the virus that we, as a liberal society, tend not to do.  They made it illegal to show your face on the street, and you could have been shot on sight for doing that. 

That simple.  Here, we have idiot kids dancing around on the beaches, getting drunk & laid, laughing about Corona Virus and getting infected.  

The 2 million is a prediction based on the model, if you want to read it, it is at this link:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

On Page 7 of 20, it says:  The key is "unmitigated."

In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.

 The key is "unmitigated." With ongoing isolation orders in CA, IL, NY, CT etc., we are pursuing mitigation steps, so the 2 M dead is not quite as likely.  

HOWEVER, this pandemic will NOT be completely broken without a vaccine or effective anti-viral, and these are months away.  Every human being is vulnerable to this thing (unless you are a recovered case, in which case you have immunity), so we are all at risk for quite a while. 

You forgot the part where they lie about it, cover it up for months, and have the person ringing the alarm bell executed for possibly saying something that might hurt the China narrative. 

Literally none of what happened could have had:

1. China not been China doing stupid crap.

2. China not been literally creating superbugs for weapons

3. China not eating animals that they have no business whatsoever eating

4. China not slamming the iron curtain every time something embarrassing happens to them 

5. China not lying with every word and trying to force *OUR* media to lie with them.

If anyone thinks that China only had as few deaths as they're reporting, they're delusional. Anything China said I would multiply by ten or one hundred. 

Here in the U.S. if someone shot my kid for going out, God wouldn't be able to save them from my wrath. That alone is grounds for a genuine shooting civil war were our government to pull that. The Chinese are able to get away with it because they're viewed by their government as little more than drones. 

Imagine what would happen on U.S. soil after a Tienamen Square massacre like when the Chinese government took tanks and drove them over protesting civilians. No politician or public official of any level down to dogcatcher would be safe. 

Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views. - William F. Buckley
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 9:14am

Both!  And both equally wrong!

Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 10:04am

Tienamen Square?  Don't you mean Kent State?

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