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Money and Inflation

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7laws View Drop Down
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    Posted: December 22 2009 at 2:55pm

I have a question for you to ponder. If Gold and Silver were used as money instead of paper what would that do to inflation? Would we still have inflation? No inflation? Where would that lead us? If all these so called promisary notes were actually backed by something solid?

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4=laro View Drop Down
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There is an old saying :  One ounce of gold will buy a good suit.  That was true in the 1800 and is probably true today.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mrmouse Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 22 2009 at 6:39pm

I think if gold and silver were used to back the US Dollar there would be little, or no inflation because the US Treasury could not arbitrarily print money without the anchor of a tangible asset. That's not to say that the price of good or services would not fluctuate due to supply and demand. 


What is the Real Definition of Inflation?

 "An increase in the amount of currency in circulation, resulting in a relatively sharp and sudden fall in its value and rise in prices: it may be caused by an increase in the volume of paper money issued or of gold mined, or a relative increase in expenditures as when the supply of goods fails to meet the demand.

http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Articles/Inflation_Definition.asp

GOLD IS NOT GOING UP – PAPER MONEY IS GOING DOWN

"In 1909, $1,000 bought 50 ounces of gold. Today it buys 0.83 ounces. This means that in the last 100 years the dollar has declined by 98.3% against gold. So in real money terms the dollar is now only worth 1.7% of what it was worth a century ago."

http://www.rapidtrends.com/gold-is-not-going-up-%E2%80%93-paper-money-is-going-down/


1913, was the last year the US Dollar was worth a dollar. The same year the Federal Reserve was sprung on us! Our founding Fathers warned us about central banks!


The Shrinking Value of the Dollar

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0001519.html

 




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Technologist View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technologist Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 22 2009 at 6:58pm
Originally posted by 7laws 7laws wrote:

I have a question for you to ponder. If Gold and Silver were used as money instead of paper what would that do to inflation? Would we still have inflation? No inflation? Where would that lead us? If all these so called promisary notes were actually backed by something solid?


Theres not enough gold to really replace paper money unless gold shot up to some insane value like $10,000-$100,000 an ounce. Then laws would need to be passed banning metal detectors with gold discrimination as thief's would hunt down people with gold and rob them.

Then they would need to ban pocket discriminating Doppler radar detectors (something I'm actually building/inventing as a hobby that works with an Iphone as the display) The iPhone SDK Dev kit as a pain in the a_ss to learn. It works by collimating a very high Gigahertz multi-band RF signal that can detect metals from a distance. The idea is to create a Metal Detector with a good range. Like 5-100 feet or more. It's not meant to search underground but to scan people for metal objects like knifes and guns and actually show them in detail.

The very high Gigahertz frequencies allow the wavelength to be so small as to give it resolution when it scans. It's not like a normal radar detector as it's only short range and in the milliwatts. I'm having trouble differentiating between metals but I might have an answer to that problem. I doubt you'll find anything like it on the net.


The other problem with trading gold as currency in a large scale is tax evasion and no way to track transactions.

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Turboguy View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Turboguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 22 2009 at 7:24pm
Technologist touched on the problem with a non fiat currency and that's the problem that there just isn't enough currency around if there wasn't a fiat system. This isn't because of the robbery situation either. The fiat system is what allowed the prosperity we enjoy today to arise. If you take a look at a graph showing the level of economic prosperity, our economy didn't really take off until the value of the dollar was untied from Gold.

The problem we're seeing now is that those in charge of the fiat system are now abusing it and inflating it at will to pay whatever they're doing off. That's just not healthy and is what happened in Germany prior to WWII and Zimbabwe of today. When Mexico's Peso is regarded as a safer bet than the US dollar, we've got a problem.

Technologist, How do you correct for the attenuation created in fabric covering said piece of metal and the water content of sweat/water vapor? Also how do you not have the heating problem created with a doppler transmission? It sounds to me that you're just making a small microwave transmitter that could detect the radio opacity of metal, and based on the level of that attenuation figure out what it's made of. I just don't think people would be cool with you microwaving them. Even a low watt, high freq signal might create some discomfort in those you pointed it at because it would heat the top layer of their skin quickly.

That doesn't even tackle the 4th Amendment challenge that the ACLU would be screaming. (It is a smidgen intrusive)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technologist Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 22 2009 at 7:44pm
Originally posted by Turboguy Turboguy wrote:

Technologist, How do you correct for the attenuation created in fabric covering said piece of metal and the water content of sweat/water vapor? Also how do you not have the heating problem created with a doppler transmission? It sounds to me that you're just making a small microwave transmitter that could detect the radio opacity of metal, and based on the level of that attenuation figure out what it's made of. I just don't think people would be cool with you microwaving them. Even a low watt, high freq signal might create some discomfort in those you pointed it at because it would heat the top layer of their skin quickly. That doesn't even tackle the 4th Amendment challenge that the ACLU would be screaming. (It is a smidgen intrusive)


That's the reason for the frequencies to sweep the spectrum so that I can mix resolution and penetration to form an image. It's not only sliding frequencies but its also scanning an X-Y and axis to map an image. At a high enough frequency you can discriminate metals almost like a spectrum analyzer does (I'm not that far into that part yet but I've already done other unrelated projects with frequencies of light and RF). You can penetrate skin without a problem but detecting the back side of a person is where I'm running into problems at such high frequencies. I'm way above 2.4 or 8.4 GHz. The higher the frequency the lower the penetration but the higher the resolution. I'm talking about milliwatts not Kilowatts so you would never heat an object up and the actual energy is 10-100 times lower then a cell phone uses as we are not reaching out 25 miles or more. Eventually I or someone elese could step into watts instead of milli-watts but it's just a hobby for now. This would be for airport or nightclub security if I ever tried to market it.

These guys are doing it with a massive sized blanket looking several meters underground but at much lower frequencies. I only need to penetrate 1-18" or they could do a 360 and I could lower the output.

http://www.accuratelocators.com/zond_index.html
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7laws View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 7laws Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 22 2009 at 10:19pm
I am aware of the problems that come with actually using gold or silver as currency. Carrying it around in your pocket could be an issue. I do believe that paper should be backed by reserves. Inflation and debt rocketed after we left the gold standard. It is like that childrens book where the kid says "the emporer has no clothes on!"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Littleraven Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 23 2009 at 6:38am
I'm thinking that something like this could solve the whole currency issue--of course the problems would still be there. What type of wallet would we have to get dad for Christmas? and we will have to start investing in some really strong suspenders.  Also, Obama's health care plan would really have to consider health issues like hernias etc...http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2005/09/yapping_about_m.html Smile
There's a Bad Moon on the Rise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cgh18 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 23 2009 at 9:41am
If lots of people suddenly stopped trusting fiat "paper" money, paper would be worth little and real precious metal would be worth it's weight in gold. All fiat currency was designed to drop to 0 value over approx 100 years. Our greenback seems well on it's way to the big 0.
Luckily for the US most all other country's paper money is in the same boat as ours so people seem to think of our money as valuable. That day might end soon. Gold was up approx 25% and silver 50% YTD. So you might say the dollar devalued by that amount in G & S terms.
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I dont know if this will help you understand the gold/dollar/inflation relationship or not, but i will try to help clear up the situation.

9/8/09 the dollar index (http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/) was trading at about the same as it is today.  Gold was trading around $980.00 on 9/8/09 (www.kitco.com), however today gold is trading around $110.00 more then it was on 9/8/09 so this tells me that the dollar is loosing value and gold is gaining value.  The change is happening at an alarming rate and you really should be concerned about the real value of a dollar bill and what it is doing to your savings.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cgh18 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 23 2009 at 10:36am
"Carrying it around in your pocket could be an issue. "

   Considering 1/10 ounce of gold to be worth approx. 150$, you would have to much weight to carry, you could eliminate a fat wallet for a small change purse and save weight. CGH
cgh
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technologist Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 23 2009 at 4:01pm
Originally posted by cgh18 cgh18 wrote:

"Carrying it around in your pocket could be an issue. "

   Considering 1/10 ounce of gold to be worth approx. 150$, you would have to much weight to carry, you could eliminate a fat wallet for a small change purse and save weight. CGH


$100 worth of 24K gold is very light but you'll have a hard time carrying around 24K gold as it's very soft. Just look at how fast coins wear out and you would see that gold would wear down very quickly if used as currency. 14K or 10K gold or even silver would end up being used more.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Turboguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 23 2009 at 4:16pm
I think Gold is far overinflated right now. Gold has historically had an absolute value of right around $500.00 per ounce. When it's below that, it's a good buy, above, don't. Problem is that they're inflating our currency at unbelievable levels so people are literally flocking to the gold market driving the per ounce price through the roof. It's going to come back down and I don't want to be holding the bag when it does. I did buy some oil while it was at $48 a barrel earlier this year, and am secretly hoping that Israel attacks Iran so I can make some money, but no thanks for overpriced gold.

Even if it doesn't drop and the SHTF before then (Highly unlikely), well I'm sure someone will trade me whatever I want for my other precious metal investments. (Copper, Brass, steel, and lead) They've historically been great investments during hard times. Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote alpha480v Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 23 2009 at 4:24pm
Originally posted by 4=laro 4=laro wrote:

I dont know if this will help you understand the gold/dollar/inflation relationship or not, but i will try to help clear up the situation.

9/8/09 the dollar index (http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/) was trading at about the same as it is today.  Gold was trading around $980.00 on 9/8/09 (www.kitco.com), however today gold is trading around $110.00 more then it was on 9/8/09 so this tells me that the dollar is loosing value and gold is gaining value.  The change is happening at an alarming rate and you really should be concerned about the real value of a dollar bill and what it is doing to your savings.
 
 
How much of the increase in the price of gold can be attributed to inflation, or can it be that many people are buying gold right now causing it's price to increase?
 
There are definite signs of inflation in the economy now, but there are also deflationary things happening at the same time.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 4=laro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 23 2009 at 4:28pm
How hard is it to store enough copper, brass, steel and lead to compare to storing one ounce of gold.  An ounce of gold is a little over the size of a quarter, how big is a stack of lead that is worth $1200? and how hard would it be to lug around if you had to move it?

24 Karot gold is not that soft, lots of people prefer 24 karot coins over 22Karot.   More so in Europe then in the US.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technologist Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 23 2009 at 5:05pm
Originally posted by 4=laro 4=laro wrote:

How hard is it to store enough copper, brass, steel and lead to compare to storing one ounce of gold. An ounce of gold is a little over the size of a quarter, how big is a stack of lead that is worth $1200? and how hard would it be to lug around if you had to move it?24 Karot gold is not that soft, lots of people prefer 24 karot coins over 22Karot More so in Europe then in the US.


Maybe you're missing the way that Turboguy and I might carry our Brass, Copper, Steel and Lead. :)

Lead, Brass and Copper



Steel and Aluminum



Money Clip and Currency Protector



Comfortable light weight all season clothing
Just kidding, that's like 35+ pounds with the Mich, Interceptor, DAPS, ESAPI, Side SAPI and Groin protector.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Turboguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 23 2009 at 7:53pm
DING DING DING!!! WINNAH!

Laro, you'd be surprised at how little brass, copper, and lead would cost you $1200.

Ammo at good prices

This is where I make quite a few of my purchases from as they've got some of the best prices on both ammunition and firearms. (Remember to strictly follow all local and state laws before purchasing, if you choose to)

Actually to tell the Honest to God, if someone wanted to build an AR15, now's the time to do it. Prices have come down fast and farther than I've ever seen them for. It's just that ammo is still expensive. (Outside Cali of course as many guns are illegal there)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 4=laro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 23 2009 at 8:31pm
As you probably figured out by now, I am retired.  I do want to share a piece of mail i received from OPM today, concerning my retirement amount for next year.  Also, I want to share with you that my share of the health insurance premium will be increased.

Annuities arse increased for cost of living adjustment (COLA) based on the criteria in Title 5 US Code sections 8340 (B) and 8462 (B)  The consumer price index for the quarter ending Septmeber 30, 2009 did not increase when compared to the 3rd quarter  in 2008.  Therefore, no COLA is payable in 2010.

So there you have it, no inflation last year and no increase in annuity so there will be none next year.
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