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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Mortality Rates

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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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    Posted: August 22 2020 at 11:20pm

One indicator that I am looking at is Mortality rates (ie number of deaths per million people).  Given different sizes of countries this allows for country to country comparison.


For this month Peru is in a league of its own with rise (in 22 days) of 249 deaths/ million population. This is more than Canada's rate (240, with +3 for August) for the whole outbreak. For this month  Colombia is the next worse (+135), and other hard hit countries are Kosovo* (+126), Mexico (+106), Panama (+105), Brazil (+102), and South Africa (+84).


For a time the southern and eastern tip of South America seemed to be doing well, but recently the pandemic seems to have taken off in Argentina (+76), and is still raging in USA (+71)  and  Chile (+70).  


In Europe, as the rate in UK has been reduced, I am beginning to see signs of mortality picking up else where (although the rises are still small).   Another area where the figures first rose fast then seemed to be contained was the Caribbean (possibly easier to contain as links between islands are easier to control for large movements of population). Unfortunately, i am beginning to see tiny signs of a second wave there




* The data for Kosovo comes from WHO, as the people behind Worldometers does not treat it as a separate entity (but at least they treat Taiwan separately which WHO does not - Interesting how different points of view treat "independence" differently) - which means one has to look at more than one source.


ps. i wonder why Canada's mortality rate (240; +3 in month)  is so much lower than that of the USA (544; +71 in month) given that they share a very long land border?  Is it, as Dutch Josh has said, this pandemic spreads fast in urban settings and amongst the poor (who tend to live closer together in urban settings)?



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WitchMisspelled View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 23 2020 at 7:10am

Why is Canada's mortality rate lower? My mouth is agape at this question.  We can begin with the differences of testing and healthcare. There's also compliance with a cohesive policy difference.  As far as crowded cities, I'm not sure that's the answer.  I'm not sure the per capita numbers would even matter in the face of  the differences of policy, compliance, healthcare and testing. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 23 2020 at 8:42am

Let's not forget that the Canada-US border has been closed to all but emergency travel for months now.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 23 2020 at 9:06am

I imagine the lesser population density of Canada helps reduce the cases a bit.  But I am certain that has only a small effect.  I agree with Witchy that policy is the main driver of infection rates.  If you look at the John Hopkins site, at the cumulative cases:    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6       and concentrate on the border between the USA and Canada, the difference is astonishing!  I can't imagine population density is so different immediately either side of this line.  As far as I understand, Canada's most dense populations are in its far south. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2020 at 9:31am

Yes, totally right, ladies!  And the best thing Canada can do is continue to hold the line on traffic in and out of the U.S. until such time as we get our $h!t together.  Hopefully in November.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyP Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 30 2020 at 2:38am

It must have something to do with low population density. I have family up in Northern Wisconsin and so far there have been 0 deaths in their county. There is a large elderly population there so I was expecting it to be devastating. Glad to see that hasn't happened yet.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyP Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 30 2020 at 2:53am

I was reading these stats and according to them the death rate is much worse in Canada than USA.


https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105914/coronavirus-death-rates-worldwide/

Canada - 7.1

USA - 3.09


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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 30 2020 at 7:42am

That higher rate for Canada is explained by a lower rate of testing, and is the deaths per case.  What I was referring to was the deaths related to the total population.  On that measure Canada is still much better than its southern neighbour.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyP Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 30 2020 at 9:41am

Ok, I see. I did some rough math and you're right. 

USA 330,000,000 / 180,407 deaths = 1,829

Canada 30,000,000 / 9,148 deaths = 4,044

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 03 2020 at 2:43am

Originally posted by EdwinSm, EdwinSm, wrote:

One indicator that I am looking at is Morbidity rates (ie number of deaths per million people).  Given different sizes of countries this allows for country to country comparison.


For this month Peru is in a league of its own with rise (in 22 days) of 249 deaths/ million population. This is more than Canada's rate (240, with +3 for August) for the whole outbreak. For this month  Colombia is the next worse (+135), and other hard hit countries are Kosovo* (+126), Mexico (+106), Panama (+105), Brazil (+102), and South Africa (+84).


For a time the southern and eastern tip of South America seemed to be doing well, but recently the pandemic seems to have taken off in Argentina (+76), and is still raging in USA (+71)  and  Chile (+70).  


In Europe, as the rate in UK has been reduced, I am beginning to see signs of mortality picking up else where (although the rises are still small).   Another area where the figures first rose fast then seemed to be contained was the Caribbean (possibly easier to contain as links between islands are easier to control for large movements of population). Unfortunately, i am beginning to see tiny signs of a second wave there




* The data for Kosovo comes from WHO, as the people behind Worldometers does not treat it as a separate entity (but at least they treat Taiwan separately which WHO does not - Interesting how different points of view treat "independence" differently) - which means one has to look at more than one source.


ps. i wonder why Canada's mortality rate (240; +3 in month)  is so much lower than that of the USA (544; +71 in month) given that they share a very long land border?  Is it, as Dutch Josh has said, this pandemic spreads fast in urban settings and amongst the poor (who tend to live closer together in urban settings)?




you mean mortality


not morbity


the condition of being diseased.
"the therapy can substantially reduce respiratory morbidity in infants"
  • the rate of disease in a population.
    "the levels of air pollution are associated with increased morbidity from respiratory diseases"
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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 03 2020 at 11:01pm

Yes, Kilt I got the wrong word.   But you have to give me some allowance for my dyslexia.  


ps. How does one change the title of a posting?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 04 2020 at 2:31am

One dyslexic to another, edit functions on a first post include the option to change the title.


So click on  'post options'  on the top right of the post.

Then click on  'edit'  from the drop down menu.  

The rest should be obvious.  I can do it.

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