Nabarro: Bird Flu in US this Spring

Bird Flu to Hit U.S. This Spring; Human Epidemic Looms, UN Says

March 8 (Bloomberg) -- Avian flu is likely to spread to birds in the U.S.
within six months and could produce an epidemic among humans ``at
any time,'' said the United Nations official who monitors global efforts to
fight the disease.

David Nabarro told reporters in New York today that wild birds migrating
over the Arctic Circle from Africa and Europe this spring would carry the
H5N1 virus to Alaska, and that avian flu would probably reach America's
lower 48 states six months later. This is the first time a top global health
official has predicted when birds carrying the flu will arrive in the U.S.

``Every country in the world now needs to have its veterinary services on
high alert for H5N1 to be sure they are not caught unawares,'' said
Nabarro, a physician with the World Health Organization who is senior UN
system coordinator for Avian and human influenza.

The flu strain, which has spread across Asia, Africa and Europe, is
currently raging through poultry farms in Nigeria, the most populous
nation on a continent ravaged by poverty and HIV/AIDS. Health
authorities are concerned that the virus is taking root in Africa, where it
threatens to infect humans, as it has in Asia and the Middle East, and
possibly mutate into a deadly pandemic form.

Avian flu infected at least 31 people in the first two months of this year,
killing 20 of them, according to the Geneva-based WHO. That's twice as
many cases and fatalities reported compared with the same two months
of 2005. The virus has killed at least 96 of 175 people infected since late
2003.

`Sooner or Later'

``There will be a pandemic sooner or later,'' Nabarro said during a news
conference today at the UN. ``It could start any time. We have a virus
capable of replicating inside humans. We have a virus that humans are
not resistant to. We have a virus about which we don't understand
everything. It is at this stage of a pandemic alert that we have the luxury
of being able to be prepared.''

U.S. Health Secretary Michael Leavitt told a Senate committee March 1
that the H5N1 virus might spread to the U.S. ``soon.'' The virus'
appearance is ``just a matter of time; it may be very soon,'' he said in his
testimony.

The Nigerian government this week began distributing compensation
payments to farmers affected by the virus, which has spread in the past
two months to almost a third of the country's 36 states. International aid
organizations are counting on the payments to spur more culling and to
help stem the trade of infected poultry.

Nigeria

Containing avian outbreaks in oil-rich Nigeria's Delta region, on the
Atlantic coast, may be complicated by kidnappings and attacks that
forced Royal Dutch Shell Plc's Nigerian joint venture to halt crude oil
output of 455,000 barrels a day, about a fifth of Nigeria's daily
production.

There have been no reported human cases of avian influenza in Nigeria,
the government said.

Albania reported its first case of bird flu in domesticated poultry, the
World Organization for Animal Health said. All 60 infected birds died
from the H5N1 virus in the village of Cuke in Vlore state, the group said
in a statement.

Germany's Federal Research Institute for Animal Health said today it had
confirmed the H5N1 virus in two more cats on the northern island of
Ruegen. The cats came from Schaprode in the west of the island, close to
where the first case of bird flu in a cat was reported last week, the
institute said in an e-mailed statement. The German government has
ordered cat owners in areas affected by bird flu to keep their pets
indoors.

The U.S. government plans to test almost eight times as many wild birds
this year as in the past decade to protect against the spread of bird flu,
USA Today said, citing the Agriculture Department. Starting in April,
samples from as many as 100,000 birds will be tested, mainly in Alaska,
the newspaper said.


To contact the reporter on this story:
Bill Varner in United Nations at wvarner@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: March 8, 2006 15:00 EST

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The disease has been confirmed in Niger and Nigeria but
there have been bird die-offs in other African nations and confirmation of its
further spread is expected soon, he said.

Bird die-offs in other African nations? I'm suspecting he's not talking about
Egypt. What else is happening that's not being reported?

UPDATE FROM BLOOMBERG:

The prediction by David Nabarro, the first by a top global health official
pinpointing when birds carrying the flu will arrive in America's lower 48
states, was buttressed today by U.S. officials who said testing for bird flu
will expand dramatically this year.

Federal, state and local health officials may test as many as 100,000 birds
for avian influenza this year, mainly in Alaska, using new U.S. funding,
said Frank Quimby, a spokesman for the Department of the Interior.
Officials had tested about 12,000 birds from 2000 through 2005, he said.

``The focus is on Alaska and the Pacific flyways near Alaska,'' Quimby
said in a telephone interview today. ``It's a breeding ground where birds
from Asia and North America go in the spring, and mix together.''

Nabarro, a physician with the World Health Organization who is senior UN
system coordinator for avian and human influenza, told reporters in New
York today that wild birds migrating over the Arctic Circle from Africa and
Europe in the next few months would carry the H5N1 virus to Alaska, and
that avian flu would probably reach the lower 48 states six months later.

(SNIP)

Better Testing

Senator Ted Stevens, a Republican from Alaska, has asked for more and
better virus testing laboratories in his state. The testing itself is done
outside in Alaska, leading to delays, Stevens said in a hearing on
pandemic flu Jan. 31.

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Tansau wrote: ``We have a virus capable of replicating inside humans. We have a virus that humans are not resistant to. We have a virus about which we don't understand everything. It is at this stage of a pandemic alert that we have the luxury of being able to be prepared.''

Translation: "Get your preps now!"