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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Netherlands
    Posted: February 27 2020 at 12:30pm
The Netherlands has its first covid19 case in Tilburg-(Brabant), In the border area with Germany-German side another 14 new cases.

May become a new "hot spot" in NW Europe...

(https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/02/more-coronavirus-cases-just-over-dutch-border-in-limburg/ running behind but will get the latest in a few hours)

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/japans-abe-closes-schools-nationwide-south-korea-confirms-505-new-cases-surpassing;
The Netherlands has confirmed its first case
Germany confirms 14 new cases
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2020 at 12:34pm
I feel for you Josh. It's everywhere!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2020 at 12:42pm
Technophobe, I'm wondering if this "bordercase" will become as explosive as Italy, Iran, South Korea...we have to wait and see. The economic effects can be dramatic.

Germany could feplace some production from China-but when they get Covid19 here as well on a larger scale it can become problematic-also for medication etc.

A large drop in medical products may cause extra mortality-maybe even become a bigger problem the Covid19 in itself...

(Financialy it is also getting dramatic-we (several countries) live in a debt-based economy-already on the edge of bankruptcy in many cases-major health issues can start a global depression.

Dutch case-man close to 50 y/o-travelhistory to Italy
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2020 at 12:57pm
I know it will. The actual question is - when?

Supply chains are very vulnerable. I don't see anything good in this, Josh.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Little House Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2020 at 2:07pm
Early on, I pegged the Netherlands as a country to watch as they said that they would be testing every one... This will be interesting.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2020 at 9:49pm
Turns out man 56-tested twice (both positive) on wednesday. Celebrated carnaval at several places last weekend (just like the German-close to the Dutch border-couple 47/46 did).

As far as I understood "only" 50 Covid-tests were done by "NIVEL". But maybe others are testing as well....

Officials keep repeating Covid19 "as a sort of flu"-crowdcontrol is the main thing. Behindthe scenes they may preparing for (far) worse...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 28 2020 at 2:48am
Second case in Amsterdam (Diemen) female recent travelhistory Italy.

From https://nos.nl/liveblog/2324902-tweede-coronapatient-in-nederland-crisisnummer-0800-1351-gaat-open.html via google translate some newsitems;

-Patient is a woman from Amsterdam (was in Lombardy feb 20-23 got sick feb 25)
The RIVM has shared more information about the second patient. This is a woman from Amsterdam who was diagnosed with the virus last night. She was in Lombardy last week, the area in northern Italy where there is a major outbreak. She has no link with the first patient from Loon op Zand.(DJ=Tilburg)

-Virus discovered just over the border at Kerkrade
The coronavirus was diagnosed this morning in a woman from Herzogenrath, just across the border from Kerkrade. 1Limburg reports that. The woman, who is in quarantine at home, probably contracted the virus during the carnival in Gangelt, Germany, says the Aachen city region. The virus was previously diagnosed by other carnival enthusiasts there.

https://www.gelderlander.nl/algemeen/live-vrouw-uit-amsterdam-besmet-met-coronavirus-thuis-in-isolatie~a43f7b86/

-In the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, close to the Dutch border, a thousand people are now in quarantine. Twenty cases were found there. Public life in Gangelt has come to a standstill due to the virus.

-The first corona patient in the Netherlands had not been well for a few days before he went to the hospital. For the GGD and of course people from the man's environment, this is important information, because a carrier of the corona virus is only contagious when he has the first symptoms of the disease.
(DJ-Misleading info-2% of infected shows no symptoms at all-infected people are contagious before any signs)

We are going for the Italy/Iran/South Korea scenario in the Dutch/German border area...not good !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 29 2020 at 12:06am
Most likely we may have three clusters in the Netherlands -Amsterdam region https://nos.nl/liveblog/2325069-wachten-op-uitslag-amsterdam-mokerslag-voor-chinese-industrie.html; The RIVM announces whether family members of the infected woman from Amsterdam have also contracted the virus. RIVM=CDC in Netherlands the infected woman has three children and a husband-the children are being tested. The involved woman (no age given) worked in the administration of the Amsterdam University Hospital and also in a school. -Tilburg-man 56 celebrated carnaval at several places last weekend. -The Limburg/German border story in wich a German couple 46/47 turned out to be infected shortly after returning from a Dutch hotel (close to the German border-same area as were they live) More testing is on its way-the Greman numbers keep going up (feb 28=20 cases, today feb 29=35 cases). In the border area Dutch people live (for tax reasons) in Germany, German people (for job reasons) live in the Netherlands-lot of cross border shopping-in some Dutch towns at the border you hear more German than Dutch. The border itself can be a problem when measures to contain the outbreak are not coordinated.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 29 2020 at 9:57pm

We now almost have 8 cases. Familymembers of the first two cases turned out to be infected. The youngest child of the Amsterdam woman did NOT go to Italy so it most have gotten the virus from her mother. 

In Delft a 23 year old woman became the 7th case-travelhistory Italy. In Rotterdam someone tested positive for the first covid19-test-waiting for the result of the second test. 

Looking at how cases explode in Italy we know the numbers in the Netherlands also will go up "like a rocket". Still no schoolclosures etc. (proberbly already late for that-usually done after the spread instead of before).




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2020 at 6:57am

Latest news is 10 cases-Amsterdam=3 Tilburg=3 (both mother, father and child) the four newest cases is Delft 23yo female student, 2 other cases related to Tilburg (1 male and 1 female) and a woman that was accepted in Gorinchem Hospital than transported to Rotterdam were was found out she had (a severe IC ?) case of Covid19. The Gorinchem hospital now is in lock-down to find out if others are contaminated. So in the Netherlands 2 children, 5 women and 3 men have Covid19.

Average age may be below 40. No new cases in the Netherlands from the (southern) Dutch German border-eventhough in Germany cases go up. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2020 at 11:24pm

DJ -Trump blaming Europe ([url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area[/url]) for the US outbreak of covid19 will even further worsen US-EU relations. No travel between the US and EU is welcome-the US may have become the biggest problem in dealing with covid19 by lack of testing. (The EU together did do tens of thousends of tests-still not enough). KLM, Lufthansa etc will be hit hard by the US travel ban.

-Good article on how the Dutch CDC-RIVM made the situation much worse. We already had a shortage of health care workers-lack of testing in time infected several hospitals and staff even before any major spread of covid19 ! Do trade unions have to call for a national strike ?

[url]https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/how-dutch-false-sense-of-security-helped-coronavirus-spread-1.4199027[/url]

The position of Dutch authorities was that only people with symptoms could transmit coronavirus. It was repeated by the government, national and local health authorities, justifying a cascade of decisions that allowed the Netherlands to keep up a “business as usual” attitude even as the virus exponentially spread.

The problem was, it was wrong. As early as February 21st, Chinese doctors published a case of apparent asymptomatic transmission; German doctors wrote to the New England Journal of Medicine on March 5th to warn of a case near Munich. The World Health Organisation advises transmission without symptoms is possible.

Despite this the Dutch government and health authorities stuck to looser quarantine advice than other European countries up to the time of publishing, telling people who had travelled from China, outbreak spots in Italy, and Iran, that they need only self-quarantine if experiencing symptoms.

As well as being underpinned by a flawed assumption, the advice relies on people knowing whether they have symptoms or not. This is questionable: Chris Higgins, a GP in Australia, provoked an outcry after treating 70 patients while he had what he thought was the tail end of a mild cold, before he tested positive for Covid-19.

It’s also in stark contrast to the approach in the countries most successful at containing the virus, such as Taiwan and Singapore, where authorities drew on their experience of the Sars outbreak to implement strict travel checks and preventative quarantine before even registering a first confirmed case.

Individual freedoms

The case of the Netherlands shows how a flawed belief about transmission filtered down throughout society, enabling the virus to spread. It also makes for a grand experiment in what happens when a country takes a relaxed approach to the virus, placing the maintenance of normality, personal responsibility and individual freedoms first.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 12 2020 at 6:50am

It also makes for a grand experiment in what happens when a country takes a relaxed approach to the virus, placing the maintenance of normality, personal responsibility and individual freedoms first.

Great article DutchJosh - thank you!  I think most countries of the world (and 'most' individual people within each of those countries honestly) have been doing the same thing - taking the relaxed approach.  It will come back to bite us - the question now is...how hard will the bite be? 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 12 2020 at 9:11am

Newbie1A-Finally even the Dutch CDC begin to see cases doubling-Italy scenario only a week/10 days away. Wuhan was closed with 400 cases-the Dutch government is not even willing to close schools with over 600 cases....

Mid April 40.000 cases 400 deaths for NL-4 days later 80.000 cases 800 death from the virus-and many more who could be saved if we had a government that did its job. 

People are stopping to send their children to school etc-due to mismanagement. And the Durch stocks had the second worst day ever...

from [url]https://nos.nl/liveblog/2326799-evenementen-met-100-bezoekers-afgelast-kabinet-roept-op-tot-thuiswerken.html[/url]

Strong criticism by microbiologists at RIVM
If the Netherlands does not immediately pursue its efforts to curb the number of corona infections, the consequences will be incalculable. The Dutch Association for Medical Microbiology writes this to RIVM today, after the announcement of additional measures across the country. The doctors state that failure to act now will ultimately lead to more damage. "Only drastic measures in the initial phase can limit the risk for citizens."

The doctors have studied data of the virus from other sources and conclude that information on the RIVM site is "seriously behind and incomplete". They accuse RIVM of not testing sufficiently for corona contacts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 12 2020 at 9:28am

How about you, DJ, are you safe?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 12 2020 at 10:01am

Thank you for asking Techno-I'm quite safe-for the moment. People in my surroundings need medication-this has to come from China (processed in Germany) and there should be enough in store at farmacies. 

In a worse case scenario this crisis may last longer that two months. Sheltering in place during a heatwave is "no fun". due to lots of rain we have some flooding in the south of the country-things like that are now extra unwelcome !

The lack of government may create panic. You are all safe in Scotland ? 

From [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/03/coronavirus-the-hidden-cases-why-we-must-shutdown-everything-and-do-it-now-.html[/url]; (With "Yes Minister"clip)

Our dear leaders are following the four stage strategy (vid):

In stage one we say "Nothing is going to happen".
Stage two we say something may be going to happen but we should do nothing about it.
Stage three: We say maybe we should do something about it but there is nothing we can do.
Stage four: We say maybe there was something that could have been done but it is too late now.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 12 2020 at 10:48am

Just stay safe DJ - prayers for you and your loved ones to come through this unscathed, with flying colors

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 14 2020 at 12:53am

Thank you Newbie1A- I notice the things in Canada are not going much better than in the Netherlands. At least your PM-Trudeau-is "getting to know" the risks of covid19. 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Hlf4SDdRgc[/url] Paul Beckwith-another Canadian-is doing a great job in not only climate change but also-in this video-on why soap destroys the outer-fat-layer of the corona-virus. 

Here in the Netherlands stronger measures against the corona-virus is getting "the new normal". Eventhough the government/RIVM (Dutch CDC) still is not getting children can spread the virus without getting ill-so no "official" schoolclosures-lots of schools do close. (The excuse is that teachers have a cold-do not know what it is-lack of testing-do not want to spread it to other teachers, parents etc.) 

Also much less trafic, measures in public transport-mostly because people work at home, companies (often international oriented) know better than this ....... government. (The UK is even worse-there the idea is to "sit it out")

In the schooldiscussion Belgium is closing schools but ask them to take care of children that otherwise would end up at grandparents-since both parents work. Education would go via public television/internet. The difference between the Dutch and Belgian approach is not that big in practice. 

This "government" does not want public gatherings of over 100 persons (schools are above that but the idea is that you do not have 100 pupils in one classroom)-some churches neglect that "rule". Since it is no "law" mayors may now end up closing churches, mosqs etc. 

There is also a "friendly panic" in the supermarkets-extra christmassales. Toiletpaper and soap, canned food are most wanted. Since a lot of the products are made in the Netherlands supermarkets can deal with this extra demand. Sometimes have to close to fill up the shelves-get new deliveries. Pay by card-not cash is supposed to help slow down the spread. 

(The Netherlands is second largest agriculture exporter after the US-since export may be getting more difficult extra home demand is welcome. Supermarkets in the Netherlands often have also shops in Belgium/Flanders. Their basic companies [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahold_Delhaize[/url] for example also own "Food Lion" , "Giant Food (Stores)" etc in the US. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahold_Delhaize#United_States[/url] in fact Dutch companies may even own all of the shopping centers-just to illustrate that a run on supermarkets in the Netherlands is not a problem-YET !!!)

In the Dutch press more and more awareness of the critical situation. From correspondents in Italy, China asking why the Netherlands did not read what they were reporting to medical staff-going for "code red" in North Brabant province-with 40% of the Dutch cases. 

From that press [url]https://www.gelderlander.nl/buitenland/verontruste-topdokters-slaan-alarm-alle-landen-moeten-in-totale-lockdown-er-is-geen-tijd-meer~ac8264b3/[/url] translation;

Distressed top doctors sound the alarm: "All countries have to go into total lockdown, there is no more time!"
If Europe does not take an example from countries such as China or South Korea in the short term, the chaos the corona virus will unleash can no longer be seen. Renowned doctors warn about this today in an open letter to colleagues from other countries. "Time is our common enemy, because the virus spreads very quickly and is very deadly."


 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 15 2020 at 1:30am

DJ-Two links via google translate

[url]https://nos.nl/artikel/2327139-coronavirus-minder-nieuwe-besmettingen-en-scholen-mogelijk-toch-dicht.html[/url] 

190 new patients were reported Friday afternoon. According to RIVM, the decrease is the result of the changed test policy. Since Thursday, people with mild complaints are no longer tested because there is a national measure to stay at home with the first complaints.

Schools closed or not?
It seems that the cabinet is reversing the decision to keep schools open. Talks are planned for the next day with educational organizations and also with hospitals, RIVM and the Federation of Medical Specialists (FMS). In The Hague, account is taken of the fact that it will still be decided to close the schools.

The FMS, which represents some 22,000 specialists and institutions, called on the cabinet to close the schools last day. The specialists are concerned that children and young people may actually spread the coronavirus.

The doctors are also concerned about the supply of mouth masks and corona tests. Some of the supporters only have enough for a day or two.

[url]https://www.gelderlander.nl/binnenland/40-a-50-nederlandse-coronapatienten-op-intensive-cares-meer-dan-de-helft-is-onder-de-vijftig~a058aad2/[/url]
Today, between forty and fifty corona patients are in critical condition on Dutch intensive care units. “More than half of those patients are under fifty years old. It also includes young people. "That says chairman of the Dutch Association for Intensive Care (NVIC) Diederik Gommers, in an interview with this site.

The professor of intensive care medicine, who himself heads the IC of Rotterdam's Erasmus MC, emphasizes that it is not only the elderly who are affected by the corona virus. ,, What has mainly made the news is that older people die faster. This is about 2.5 percent of the entire population, while about 15 percent of the elderly die. But more than half of those patients are under fifty years old. It also includes young people. "
-
A 16-year-old boy from Breda is infected with the coronavirus and is currently in the intensive care unit of the Erasmus MC-Sophia Children's Hospital. His family calls on the whole of the Netherlands: "Wake up and take this virus seriously."

The IC specialist also says that admissions to intensive care because of the Covid-19 virus can take weeks. ,, In Erasmus there are two patients who have been on respiration for three weeks now. All other patients on the intensive care unit are shorter. "

Dutch doctors have also been informed about patients from Lombardy, Italy, who confirm data that young and relatively healthy people are also affected by the corona virus. ,, The youngest intubated Covid-19 patient is a girl of 16 years old. Two children with Covid-19 were admitted to the pediatric IC for observation, but did not require additional therapy, "the information circulated among Dutch physicians states. The first patient in that Italian region to receive a ventilator was ventilated for eighteen days, while he was relatively healthy. "It was a 38-year-old, otherwise very healthy man, who ran marathons for this."

Main risk factor for obesity

The average age of all covid-19 ic patients in Lombardy, Italy, was 70 years, according to which "the main risk factor for ic uptake is obesity". According to that information, the transmission of corona from mother to unborn children "does not seem to take place." ,, This is based on three positively tested mothers (all incidentally complaint-free) who gave birth to a child which tested negative for covid-19. The same was observed in China, "according to the information distributed to Dutch specialists based on the Italian region.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 15 2020 at 2:21am




Thanks DJ,,

Great to know what's happening in another part of Europe.

Are they panic buying there? 

Or is it quiet orderly

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 15 2020 at 2:54am

Carbon20-Yes there is some panic buying here-mostly friendly-extra X-mas sales. Since we are distributing goods all over the world there is no shortage of most goods -except face mask, PPE etc for hospitals (we get that from China most-but since China is willing to export those goods-even giving it for free-there is hope). 

The good thing is people realize that something serious might be on its way. There is a public reaction. (The bad thing is we finally get better weather-spring-people sitting on terraces of still open restaurants and cafe's like nothing is happening. 

I expect the government to close schools, restaurants this week-unless they are totally blind for what is happening in Italy and Spain. 

When I look at the numbers cases per milion-Denmark, Norway must be in crisis by now. It is very silent from there (maybe EdwinSM knows more). 

Economic institutions expected economic growth for the NL to be 1.4% at the beginning of this year-beginning of this month (or so) they expected a drop of 0,5 % due to China corona crisis (but did not expect it here) now the prospect is severe economic fall back. 

But since we had a trade surplus we have 90 billion in reserve to deal with the crisis...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 15 2020 at 4:10am

A bit of good news was hidden in the last report, that is the bit about the virus not transferring from mother to baby, based on three cases of positive mothers giving birth - this also seems to back up the information from China.


I understand the need to change the testing criteria, but I wonder how long after the out break do we start getting good statistics on how widely this spread (and therefore how low the CFR is).  I realise that at this stage medical research into total numbers of population with anti-bodies, might not be high priority as this is moving too fast.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 15 2020 at 7:29pm

On february 27 we had our first case-on march 15 schools, restaurants, sportclubs etc. have to close. Restaurants got the message at 5.30 in the afternoon they had to close at 6.00 hrs-so in half an hour,

The cabinet/PM did get a lot of criticism when he told the public -just a few days ago-they had to work at home-but send their children to school-it simply did not make much sense. 

Now telling restaurants they had to close within half an hour gives me (DJ) the impression politics-the "leadership" is panicking. 

Dentists stop working-only open for emergency-since working in ones mouth can bring the dentist in contact with the virus-to much risk/shortage of masks ?

Of course we went over the 1000 cases mark-sunday, with 8 more deaths. Proberbly the 368 new deaths-in just one day-in Italy may have given the final shock. 

The bad thing is of corse it is al much to late-every day of delay in an exponential phase results in more damage in the nearby future.

(Delay 1 day =5 time as much problems at day 10, 2 days=50 times as much problems, 3 days=500 times as much -such a kind of scenario. The UK and US "are lost"-face very severe damage)

Of course here on Avian Flu Talk-forum we all knew this scenario would come one day-we hoped it never would happen. 

For today I expect chaos in the supermarkets-less friendly/panic. People will start realizing we may be in a sort of lock down for months. 

Economicly-we are heading towards a global depression-proberbly far worse than the 1929 one. (Still here in the Netherlands a reduction of economy by 10% would bring us at the economic level of the 1980's).

Globally countries like the Netherlands-centers of distribution (due to ports, geo-position, infrastructure) may have lots of goods in storage. Other countries may be in a worse situation. 

Our healthcare is not able to deal with this kind of pandemic-in any country. Germany did close it borders with France, Switserland, Austria, Luxemburg, Denmark-I think Poland did close its border with Germany....from a containment view it is much to late. 

We are in the beginning of a major storm that will last for the coming months....



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2020 at 11:23am
Prime Minister Rutte said in a direct speech that the coronavirus is among us and will remain with us for the time being. There is no easy way out, the reality is that a large part of the Dutch people will become infected in the near future, he said in his speech to the Dutch people.

It can take months to build group immunity. Until then, we must do everything we can to protect the most vulnerable people.

Many people feel that we are on a rollercoaster, which is getting faster and faster. The measures are unprecedented, says Rutte. He emphasized that expert advice is leading in these measures. The only sensible way is to use scientific knowledge and facts.

Flatten peak in spread
According to Rutte, the government chooses to control the virus as much as possible and to level off the peak in its spread. With this approach, we ensure that care can continue to cope.

If the virus went wild out of control, the health care system would be completely overrun. Vulnerable elderly and other patients could not be helped.

One of the scenarios is that our country will be locked. But that would take a very long time, and it would not yet give any certainty. As long as there is no vaccine, the virus will continue to spread around the world like a wave and not skip our country, says Rutte. That is why the cabinet has not opted for a lockdown.

He ended with a call: "We have to do it with 17 million people. Together with 17 million people, we will overcome this." Pay attention to each other. I count on you."
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2020 at 11:32am

DJ-The good thing about the PM speech  [url]https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/documenten/toespraken/2020/03/16/tv-toespraak-van-minister-president-mark-rutte[/url] in Dutch ) is that is getting clear what the basic idea is-the bad thing the idea is wrong. 

Three scenarios: (In the PM speech)

1 controlled spread

2 let the virus do its way

3 lock down for over 1 year

DJ-In my opinion looking at Italy, Spain, China "controlled spread to create herd immunity" is a nice theory but China showed a total lock down might have worked when it was set in progress in time. 

One commentator reminded the public just one week ago the message was to stop shaking hands. Since then all other rules were put in action that first were claimed to be not needed.

DJ-There were stories about secondary infection-the numbers in the Netherlands go up fast. We are just a few days away from the Italy scenario-the PM/cabinet AND RIVM (Dutch CDC) seem to be blind for that.  The idea that only elderly will be severe effected is wrong !

With very limited testing the number of mild/asymptomatic cases is unknown. It is a big gamble to go for herd immunity on that basis,

A lock down for over a year may be needed due to little action when action was needed.  We will have to change the way we live....

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/half-america-will-get-sick-here-what-goldman-told-1500-clients-its-sunday-conference-call[/url]

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2020 at 12:10pm

DJ, thanks again for your excellent reporting!  You are the eyes and ears of AFT into the heart of Europe, and we appreciate it. 

Be safe, Chuck

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2020 at 12:37pm

CRS, DrPH thank you. What is your idea of the "Dutch approach" ? A "controlled outbreak" because we can not stop it ? 

What does this story [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-new-research-indicates-sars-cov-2-coronavirus-is-indeed-mutating-into-various-strains-that-have-specific-preference-of-attacking-human-host-[/url] mean for the global outbreak-will there be lots of variations of Covid19-with possible reinfections all the time ? 

The Dutch cabinet-I expect-will change its ways within one week-go for lock down when the number of infected further goes exponential-4000 cases in NL by the end of this week ? 

Are we expected to accept half the population becoming infected with over 500.000 deaths in one year ? Summer is not stopping this outbreak if that was the idea...

The Dutch-way goes against the (new) WHO guideline to test every possible covid19 case and contact.

In my opinion politics-worldwide-are lost in dealing with this pandemic because science seems to be lost for the moment....


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 17 2020 at 11:33pm

[url]https://www.gelderlander.nl/binnenland/who-kritisch-nederland-vaar-niet-blind-op-groepsimmuniteit~a99537fa/[/url]

(DJ-google translate)

WHO critical: The Netherlands, do not blindly focus on group immunity
The Netherlands should not blindly assume that group immunity will arise for the Covid-19 virus. World Health Organization warns about this. The organization also states that our country and other European countries must continue to test intensively for Covid-19. RIVM states: we do what is necessary.
-

"Testing is the key to controlling the virus," said Hans Kluge, European Director of WHO on Tuesday at a news conference. His boss, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said earlier that he has a simple message to all countries. "Test, test, test."
-

It seems to be going the other way in the Netherlands. Patients who can get sick at home are no longer tested, and the family of the infected patients is no longer checked as standard for a while. The same applies to the staff of a number of hospitals.

Strategy
That is not the right strategy, says Kluge. Testing and the detection and isolation of (potentially) infected people are still at the top of the package of measures to combat the virus. This will be followed by increasing the capacity in health care to accommodate the expected flow of patients and promoting social distancing among the population.

Hospitals in the Netherlands previously indicated that test capacity in the Netherlands is limited. The WHO recognizes that some European countries are struggling with this and pledges to make every effort to ensure that these deficits are remedied.
-
Unwise
The Dutch policy to slowly build group immunity, by allowing the coronavirus to spread slowly, as it were, is unwise according to the WHO, the health arm of the United Nations. According to experts from the organization, there is no evidence yet that this group immunity is caused by this virus. "That is why it is not the right time for us to focus on that now," said Dorit Nitzan, Health Crisis Coordinator. "We need to know more about it first. It is a new virus, it has only been around for 12 weeks in the human race. Now we have to focus on those very basic precautions. "
-
Richard Pebody, who is responsible for the containment of contamination as a team leader at WHO Europe, says a set of measures is needed. ,, So both finding and isolating infections, and contact research, and increasing capacity in hospitals, and social distancing. People are now talking about group immunity, but we have to suppress the virus, that is now a priority. Flatten the curve! ”

RIVM is confident that group immunity will eventually occur. But that does not mean that the virus should continue to spread, says Aura Timen, head of the National Coordination Center for Infectious Disease Control at RIVM. “We also fight the virus, we even go further than other countries. We ask everyone to stay at home as much as possible, but we don't lock the entire country. You may have to keep that up for a year. And if you relax it, the peat fire will flare up again. ” About the allegedly restrictive test policy, Timen says: “We apply the WHO policy in a Dutch context. A lot is being tested: about a thousand a day in recent days, at numerous laboratories in the country. We test at hospital admissions. We also have monitoring stations throughout the country, which we started seven weeks ago. And we will use the infection radar to gauge the population. I think the WHO mainly addresses countries where there is not yet a clear picture of the virus. "In addition, Timen argues, much more testing does not mean that the virus becomes less" dangerous. "


[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/18/temporary-lock-possibility-yet-necessary-dutch-pm-says-covid-19[/url]

Prime Minister Mark Rutte is keeping the possibility open to temporarily halt public life in the Netherlands completely in the fight against the coronavirus. But, as the country's care capacity is still sufficient, such a lock down is not yet necessary, he said to NOS in response to criticism on the Dutch policy to strive for "herd immunity" against Covid-19.

Some critics say that the "herd immunity" approach is risky and could lead to many deaths, according to NOS. Other critics point out that other countries like France opted for a lock down approach. Belgium also took a step towards lock down on Tuesday evening.

But according to Rutte, there is not much of a difference between the Netherlands' approach and that of other countries. "We don't have a different strategy. This is the strategy that the whole world is following," he said. According to Rutte, the capacity of ICUs is the decisive factor in all countries' decision making. France and Belgium are locking down their countries because their ICUs are filled up. "That is also conceivable here, but we don't have to do that now," he said to the broadcaster.


Rutte added that a complete lockdown until a vaccine is available, is off the cards. "I don't think we're going to say to people: you can't go outside and that could take a year or maybe longer. Because it can take that long before there is a corona vaccine," he said.

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/17/travel-anywhere-except-emergencies-dutch-government[/url]

The Dutch government issued a far-reaching cautionary statement on Tuesday telling the country's residents to avoid traveling outside the Netherlands at all costs. The warning, released by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was because of the rapid speed with which new restrictions were being introduced by the national government and governments abroad.

"Holiday trips abroad are not recommended," the Ministry continued. "If you have travel plans, consider whether this trip is really necessary. Postpone or cancel the trip whenever possible."

Those who were already abroad when the government updated its travel advice were told to work with their travel provider to return at the earliest date possible. Anyone not able to depart for the Netherlands should work with their travel provider to secure shelter.

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/17/mps-praise-dutch-pms-covid-19-speech[/url]

rime Minister Mark Rutte could count on praise from both opposition and coalition parties for his address to the nation on Monday. In his speech, the Prime Minister warned that coronavirus Covid-19 will be in the Netherlands for some time, and called on Netherlands residents to face this difficult time together.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 12:27am

Dutch Josh, I spend probably too much time ruminating about this....would it be better for each of us to catch the SARS-CoV2 virus now, at the beginning of the epidemic, and gamble that there would be adequate hospital capacity & ventilator support to live through the illness, or better to dodge the virus as long as possible?  We would also be gambling that we would land a "mild" case of illness. 

At my age, I vote "dodge the virus," but patients who catch COVID-19 at the earliest stage of the outbreak may actually be at an advantage.  Most of society would experience a mild disease which would confer immunity, so it would nearly be like being vaccinated.  If enough of the population were infected and survived, this would help to shield the vulnerable in the population, not unlike "ring vaccination" used to control smallpox. 

Of course, even the young can be infected and actively shed the disease, so this strategy would be highly risky.  However, gathering the young and exposing them en masse might be a strategy that could be used in very poor countries with limited healthcare infrastructure. 

I hope you are safe and well in the Netherlands, my friend! 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 1:35am





I Am waiting to see if China has really dodged a bullet.....

I think that the minute China starts to relax 

It will take off again.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 5:40am

CRS, DrPH-even with a lockdown our healthcare system would get to breakingpoint very fast. Due to spending cuts there are 250.000 vacancies in (health)care. Old people are supposed to stay at home "almost till they drop". There is a severe shortage of masks (China just gave Dutch healthcare tens of thousends of masks etc). PPE's etc. 

On that bases only lockdown is a acceptable choice. 

(I will update with numbers in a second post)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 6:08am

Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

Dutch Josh, I spend probably too much time ruminating about this....would it be better for each of us to catch the SARS-CoV2 virus now, at the beginning of the epidemic, and gamble that there would be adequate hospital capacity & ventilator support to live through the illness, or better to dodge the virus as long as possible?  We would also be gambling that we would land a "mild" case of illness. 

At my age, I vote "dodge the virus," but patients who catch COVID-19 at the earliest stage of the outbreak may actually be at an advantage.  Most of society would experience a mild disease which would confer immunity, so it would nearly be like being vaccinated.  If enough of the population were infected and survived, this would help to shield the vulnerable in the population, not unlike "ring vaccination" used to control smallpox. 

Of course, even the young can be infected and actively shed the disease, so this strategy would be highly risky.  However, gathering the young and exposing them en masse might be a strategy that could be used in very poor countries with limited healthcare infrastructure. 

I hope you are safe and well in the Netherlands, my friend! 

That is a brilliant idea...mandatory separations in countries based on age...

Separate the young from the old/weakened....then deliberately expose the young, let it burn out (there will be casualties), let them do all the work such as food production, delivery, essential services, at a distance. How to enact, logistically? Households, apartments, streets, blocks, neighborhoods get separated by age. No one under 50 or with health conditions allowed in/out, for example. 

This would require extremely visionary leadership. 

I'm thinking of a country I have some ties to, Colombia. Their health care system is fairly minimal, with high urban density. How to get this to the decision makers around the world? WHO? They seem so incompetent they couldn't lead anyone out of cardboard box. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 6:43am

This popped out at me from above - does Mr. Rutte not understand the time delay between exposure and ICU overload?  To me it's basic math, and the understanding of the long/slow climb then 'hockey stick' turn upwards of this is essential knowledge for governments...does he 'not get it'?  If he doesn't understand it's scary, and if he does understand and choses to do 'nothing' - that's kind of even scarier!

Prime Minister Mark Rutte is keeping the possibility open to temporarily halt public life in the Netherlands completely in the fight against the coronavirus. But, as the country's care capacity is still sufficient, such a lock down is not yet necessary, he said to NOS in response to criticism on the Dutch policy to strive for "herd immunity" against Covid-19.

If it's to be - it's up to me!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 18 2020 at 10:28pm

Newbie1A-maybe our PM did get the point that-with any scenario-there will be a lot of fatalities. CRS, DrPH -Peak Prosperity (PP)[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmhsNdW24BM[/url] has a good video on the question of strategy. 

If you can not avoid a major disaster is there some wisdom in trying to delay it-yes proberbly. Are there means for delaying it-yes sveral-from closing of schools-or not to only telling the people most vulnarable to stay indoors-selfisolate.

In a debate in parliament our healthminister collapsed due to exhaustion. I am willing to believe they weigh all the different options-and all those options mean lots of lives lost-there are no miracle options.

Our politicians/cabinet underlines there is no major difference between how most countries deal withis crisis. I think the main difference might be timing of measures. 

(I will try to come back on numbers-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] has lots of info-for lots of questions. NL has a high number of fatalities-already-in comparison with Germany, Austria-that both have more cases-per-million-how come ?)

From P.P. :

The more we learn about the coronavirus, the more nefarious it becomes. Most public efforts to are focused on detecting those with symptoms, like a fever. But new research shows that the majority of covid-19 carriers (50%-75%) are asymptomatic. So you're much more likely to get infected by someone who looks and feels fine. To date it looked like only the elderly and immunocompromised were at risk of serious complications. Well, that assumption is changing. European doctors are reporting a concerning number of younger, healthy people getting sick, too. Similarly, it was assumed that the virus didn't thrive in heat and humidity. Hopes in the northern hemisphere have been pinned on the nearing arrival of Spring. Well, new data shows that this may be false hope. And as government response plans become clearer, the math shows that most of them will be too insufficient to "Flatten The Curve" much and prevent national health care systems from being overwhelmed. Combined, most of what we're learning now reinforces the conclusion that many, many people will become infected; the virus will be with us a long time; and the economic legacy will be massive and painful.

Another story on the debate:

Best known virologist Belgium: The Netherlands will come back from this
The best-known virologist in Belgium, Marc van Ranst, is extremely critical of the corona policy of the Netherlands. On Flemish Radio 1 he said that the Netherlands will come back.

"They still have less than 50 deaths, but they are getting close to that. 100 deaths and all this policy changes. And at that moment it will be too late, or very late, to take the same measures as Belgium now Certainly when there are images of healthcare that it can not handle, people who have to be in the hallway, a lot of people on the ventilator, the call for those measures will become very large. "

In Belgium, a ban on gathering has been in effect since noon. All non-essential shops are closed and only a limited number of people are allowed to enter supermarkets.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2020 at 3:00am

DJ-We had our first case in the Netherlands feb-27. At present  (march 19 10hrs CET) 2051 cases-58 deaths.  Info (a.o.) from:[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url], [url]https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/current-information-about-novel-coronavirus-covid-19[/url]

When you look at numbers per million: Netherlands (NL) has 120 per million (pm). Germany (DE) has 147pm, Italy (IT) has 591 pm. 

(I wanted to compare those numbers backward-mmmmm-does not work country pm)

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/[/url] and [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/[/url]

Italy (IT) had first 3 cases (c) feb 15 at that time Germany (DE) had 16 cases NL=0 (d=deaths)

feb15 IT 3c DE 16c NL0c

feb27 IT 655c /17d DE 48c NL1c 

march(ma)2 IT 2036c/52d  DE 165c NL 18c

ma4 IT 3089c/107d DE 262c NL 38c  (ratio IT 28.8 (3089:107=) increase  (inc-c) IT 4636:3089=1.5 DE 2.6 NL 3.4

inc-d IT 1.8 

ma6 IT 4636c/197d DE 670c NL 128c/1d (ratio IT 23.5 NL 128 inc-c IT 1.6 DE 1.5 NL 2.1

inc-d IT 1.8 NL 3

ma8 IT 7375c/366d DE 1040c NL 265c/3d ratio IT 20.1 NL 88.3 inc-c IT

ma10 IT 8514c/631d DE 1565c/2d NL 382c/4d (ratio IT 13.5 DE 782.5 NL 95.5

ma12 IT 12839c/1016d DE 2745c/6d NL 614c/5d (ratio IT 12.6 DE 457.5 NL 122.8

ma14 IT 17750c/1441d DE 4599c/9d NL959c/12d (ratio IT 12.3 DE 511 NL 79.9

ma16 IT 23073c/2158d DE 7272c/17d NL 1413c/24d (ratio IT 10.7 DE 427.8 NL 58.9

ma18 IT 28710c/2978d DE 12327c/28d NL 2051c/58d (ratio IT 9.6 DE 440.3 NL 35.4

(with these numbers one can compare the outbreaks in IT-DE-NL and make some projections)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 11:42pm

DJ-I may be continuing the calculations in "the dungeon" on this site. Germany-our eastern neighbour-seems to be doing much better in keeping serious cases/deaths down. How ? Maybe better testing ? Picking up early cases, contact tracing-so able to limit damage in a very early stage ?????

On this map [url]https://www.rivm.nl/coronavirus-kaart-van-nederland-per-gemeente[/url] one can see most cases are concentrated in SE part of the NL.  [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnival[/url] is the main reason for that. One can also see some relation with the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bible_Belt_(Netherlands)[/url] orthodox protestant christians-although most churches stopped major activities. 

The army is helping to transport cases from the southern part of the country to other area's were there is still room in ICU.

We had nice-but cold and windy- weather so lots of people went to forrests, parks, beaches. Since 50/60% of the shops are-still- open in the Netherlands also people from Germany and Belgium came over. The Belgian-Dutch border is now closed for that kind of visits. (Also lots of Dutch get their gas across the border because it is cheaper there. The Belgian border now closed for that.)

The Netherlands is getting Chinese help (from China air transport companies, Huawei-most likely also AliBaba/Aliexpres) in the form of masks. 

A Dutch company making [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chloroquine[/url] is under police surveilance. Dutch doctors are using (a.o.) this medication-without much succes and lots of side effect-on the severe Covid19 cases. The Dutch CDC (RIVM) hopes to see this coming week the results of less shacking hands, working from home aproach-otherwise we will get more strict rules. 

Another Dutch company is making 50 ventilators per week, people from restaurants that lost their jobs can get temporary positions in hospitals. Other companies-that used to work for restaurants-sell their products via the internet to consumers. 

DJ-My impression is that most Dutch people do not get how serious the situation is. Closing of gyms was not an invitation to organize your own group work-out in a park. Shops still open are not meant for fun-shopping (lots of supermarkets etc. do want people to get there essentials individualy-so not all of the family in the supermarket.) After a fall of numbers in public transport better weather did see a rise again of people on fun-trips. 

The Dutch approach-much critizised by most of the rest of Europe-of "controlled spread"to get herd-immunity is on its way to become a disaster. Our PM Rutte may not be the right person to get the message over (he is way to friendly, always smiling).

Some links;

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/22/total-coronavirus-cases-quadruple-week-4204-death-toll-reaches-179[/url],

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/22/nl-alert-urgently-warns-people-stay-home-crowds-flock-popular-areas[/url],

[url]https://www.facebook.com/NOSinEnglish/?__tn__=kC-R&eid=ARAQayCaSmxqSJlsiafqSGpARuLjgDNq4pA41XofoWyJwrF5mmLwggrbcTAKnGveTPyTRGdv64Qz_7xv&hc_ref=ARSsPj7DotjvJErICnCxeLMdEiaIx19I97VYHcPrdxzYsoOepsYQy5gFzrvimXSGSkM&fref=nf[/url]


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 24 2020 at 3:37am

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/24/mayors-pleased-clear-rules-new-covid-19-measures[/url]

DJ-A lot of criticism on why some rules last till june 1, other rules april 6-but maybe longer-barbers are "adviced" to stop their job (because you can not work from a distance unless you have very long arms)-children (till what age ?) can still play outside (because they do not spread the virus ????) [url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/24/secondary-schools-unions-call-exams-scrapped[/url] de facto most schools had to make this decision themselve. Another new "rule"is supposed to have not more than three visitors in your house-if you have more "police could invade your house" police already claiming they will not do so. 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/24/philips-step-equipment-production-fight-coronavirus[/url] Problem for the Netherlands-the production is in Pittsburgh PA-USA-the US may not allow export. 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/24/virologist-condemns-netherlands-slow-covid-19-testing[/url] DJ-How do you know how far "herd immunity" is when you do not test ? In Groningen they tested 1000 hospital workers-50 of them had the corona-virus. 

(The WHO advises "testing, testing, testingRoche a main manufacterer of the tests claims there are not enough tests. Can others produce more tests ?)

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/24/amsterdam-hospital-building-large-corona-care-unit[/url]

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/23/covid-19-vaccine-developed-leiden-wont-tested-nl-report[/url]



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2020 at 3:34pm

Since Germany has 34 ICU's per 100.000 people-NL has 7 per 100.000 there are now talks of transporting cases from NL to the borderarea, Aachen, Kleve, Münster. Germany also welcoming patients from Italy, France. [url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/27/118-coronavirus-patients-admitted-icus-netherlands[/url] getting close to its limits.

[url]https://www.rivm.nl/en/coronavirus-map-netherlands-per-municipality[/url] spread most in SE and bibble-belt. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 29 2020 at 1:08am

DJ-At present in Dutch news;

-some 600.000 facemasks (part of 1.300.000 masks) bought from China are not good-do not provide enough protection. 

-Since spending cuts on care for the elderly many old people with healthissues still live by themselves. Familymembers are expected to take some care-but they run in difficulties when they get sick themselves. Professional care (also lots of spending cuts) hase lots of health issues themselves (the outcome will be a lot of people with healthissues will be in the colatteral deaths statistics). People in health institutions are supposed to stay indoors and can not get visitors (for weeks, months)

-still a lot of shops are open but most people do not go there (supermarkets do-it-yourself shops, farmacies excluded)

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/26/coronavirus-impact-netherlands-bracing-deep-recession-94-unemployment[/url]

The coronavirus will definitely cause a recession in the Netherlands, according to a report central planning office CPB released on Thursday. The CPB calculated four scenarios depending on how long the measures to curb the spread of Covid-19 will remain in place, and all four scenarios resulted in a recession. In the best case scenario, the Dutch economy will shrink 1.2 percent this year, in the worst case it will shrink 7.7 percent. In three of the four scenarios, the shrink will be greater than in the 2008/2009 financial crisis, CPB said.

"Corona is primarily a health crisis. Measures to contain the spread of the virus are necessary, but it is clear that they have a profound impact on the economy," CPB director Pieter Hasekamp said. "At the same time, much is still uncertain. We do not yet know how long the current measures will remain in force, nor do we know the exact impact on the economy, because such measures have never been seen before." Which is why the CPB worked out four scenarios. 


[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/27/dutch-security-services-warned-consequences-pandemic-years-report[/url]

Security services in the Netherlands have been warning about the dangers of a pandemic like the coronavirus since 2016. In reports by the national coordinator for counterterrorism and security NCTV, the security services warned that the Netherlands does not have enough ICU beds, among other things, NRC reports based on its own research. It seems little was done with this advice.

Last year's National Security Strategy, a policy document on which the government bases its security plans, also paid attention to preparing for a pandemic. "The risk of an outbreak of a (serious) infectious disease such as an influenza pandemic remains real," the newspaper quoted from the document. It advised the government to implement "policy at a strategic level" to be prepared for this.

Despite being warned about the dangers of a pandemic in NCTV safety analyses since 2016, written in collaboration with experts from health institute RIVM, research center TNO, and intelligence and security service AIVD, little seem to have been done to actually prepare. "Our preparations for a pandemic has been mainly symbolic," Ira Helsloot, professor of security governance, said to the newspaper. "Plans have been written for it, but we were not prepared in a material sense."

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/28/arrival-covid-19-nl-earlier-thought-study-reveals[/url];

The Covid-19 disease was already being transmitted among health care workers in Noord-Brabant from as early as Feb. 19, new research reveals—indicating that transmission was occurring over a week before the first case was officially recorded in the Netherlands late last month.

According to a survey published Friday by a joint team of Dutch researchers, as many as 86 health care workers in two Noord-Brabant hospitals were infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, more commonly referred to simply as "coronavirus," from late February and into early March. Of these, eight were apparently showing symptoms of the coronavirus disease before the case of Joost Boons, the official "patient zero," was reported by health authorities on Feb. 27.

While the 86 infected health care workers were indeed a small sample (6.4 percent) of the total sample taken of hospital employees; the findings do nevertheless represent a “relatively high prevalence of mild clinical presentations that may go undetected,” the researchers write.

DJ-The Dutch CDC/RIVM keeps optimistic over the outcome of their (lack of) policy. Looking at Italy, China I do not see any reason for that optimism. Also hospitals and GP's give another perspective. Of the infected Dutch cases close to 10% are HCW.


[url]https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/current-information-about-novel-coronavirus-covid-19[/url];

28-03-2020 | 14:00 hr

Overview of the numbers

  • The total number of confirmed cases: 9762 (+1159)
  • The total number of confirmed cases who are or were admitted to hospital: 2954 (+454)
  • The total number of reported deaths: 639 (+93)

Explanation

As seen yesterday, the number of reported new hospital admissions and Intensive Care admissions appears to be increasing less rapidly. The number of reported deceased COVID-19 patients is lower than yesterday. Because not all patients can be reported immediately, the reported numbers may differ slightly from the actual situation.

The number of reported hospital admissions and the number of reported deaths from COVID-19 is increasing less rapidly than would have been expected without measures in place. If this trend continues, we can conclude in a couple of days whether the measures are working.

The province with the most confirmed cases is still Noord-Brabant with a total of 2748 persons. However, the number of new hospital admissions in this province is decreasing. Subsequently, the most confirmed cases were reported in Zuid-Holland (1508) and Noord-Holland (1401). In the province of Zuid-Holland, the number of hospital admissions of confirmed cases is rising faster than in other provinces. The provinces of Friesland and Drenthe are still the provinces with the fewest infections, 96 and 98 confirmed cases, respectively.

[url]https://www.rivm.nl/en/coronavirus-map-netherlands-per-municipality[/url]

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 29 2020 at 7:25am

Not a lot of good news there DJ - make sure you stay safe!!!

The only thing that might be possible with the 600k masks - they may not be good event to prevent catching virus, but are they good enough for people coming into an ER or clininc or doctor to wear 'in case' they have it and prevent spread???  Just a hopeful thought if they can serve a purpose...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 29 2020 at 8:05am

Newbie1A-the problem with the masks was that they did not cover enough of the face-left openings on the side. The masks were already distributed to hospitals (could cover 1 month of need for masks in NL)-but they saw the problem. (Could be a wrong size ? May be returned to the Chinese company and be replaced by "perfect fit ones"?)

According to Paul Beckwith cases in Canada are exploding-stay safe !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2020 at 11:42pm

DJ-On feb 27-a little over a month ago-we had our first Covid19 case in the Netherlands. [url]https://www.rivm.nl/en/current-information-about-novel-coronavirus-covid-19[/url] The number of tested cases is now over 13.000-the real numbers both in cases and deaths will be several times higher. [url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/02/life-expectancy-likely-fall-due-coronavirus-experts-say[/url]

(Life expectancy in NL is among the highest in the world [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy[/url] (UNDP-list) [url]https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2016/53/life-expectancy-gap-between-dutch-women-and-women-elsewhere-in-europe-widening[/url]-quality of life is a different story)

DJ-[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/01/covid-19-curve-flattening-lockdown-unnecessary-says-health-agency[/url]

Allthough I am very critical on politics for the moment the Dutch government may be doing the best they can;

-increase testing (from 4000 per day to 20.000 or something like that

-increase ICU capacity from 1150 to 2400-3000

-working with Germany that still has room in ICU

-there is an "intelligent lockdown" (with streets most empty but people can go out-for this moment this brings the R0 to 0.3 claims the RIVM/dutch CDC)

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/31/coronavirus-schools-shut-businesses-remain-closed-april-28[/url]

"It should not have to be this way" goes for NL as well-lot more action earlier (february) could have stopped this outbreak.

Most bordercrossings are still open-we expect (but not welcome) tourists from Germany, Belgium for Easter-may have to close borders then. 

Supermarkets, DIY-shops were overrun-there is a shortage of jog-saw-puzzles-but no shortage of medication.

The ICU's are stretched to their limits but the number of infected HCW remain low. Elderly are not free to move-in some houses for people with needs there are Covid19 outbreaks-it is far from perfect. Comparing the NL situation-we have a lot of deaths-with other EU countries we are "somewere in the middle ranks"-comparing with the US the EU is doing so much better ! (Again it does not have to be this way !!!)

A lot of shops may go bankrupt-other shops sell via the internet, restaurants become take-aways. There will be an increase of unemployment-but also of new jobs doing old things in a new way.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2020 at 3:02am




Hi DJ thanks for the update

Is your government helping the people laid off because of this, 

Our government supporting us all here with $750.00 a week for all wage earners

For at least 3 months possibly 6





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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2020 at 3:12am

DJ- You really shouldn't rely on all those propaganda rags to form your opinions....

The world’s #top10 #coronavirus #covid18 deaths per 1 million people countries. 1. #Italy 218 2. #Spain 201 3. #Belgium 87 4. #Netherlands 68 5. #France 62 6. #Switzerland 56 7. #Luxembourg 46 8. #Iran 36 9. #Uk 35 10. #Sweden 24 ?. #USA 15 ?. #Finland 3 ?. #China 2

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2020 at 3:18am

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/02/anti-coronavirus-measures-likely-remain-months-virologists-say[/url] DJ-This will be a "job" for up to two years ? 

ksc-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] has also a list of deaths per millions-I try to base my opinions as good as possible on facts.

carbon20-Our government is paying companies up to 90% of salary costs if they do not fire their workers (still KLM did end contracts for several thousends of employees). Of course otherwise those who do lose their job would get unemployment benefit. 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/16/coronavirus-full-text-prime-minister-ruttes-national-address-english[/url] DJ in practice there may be difficulties with burocracy-but the Dutch government is willing to go far to ensure everyone does get an income. (One problem is that a lot of Dutch live across the border in Belgium, Germany but work here-wich country should do what ? Also self-employed with no stabile income-do you use last years tax-info ?)


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2020 at 3:28am

So what facts led you to form this opinion?

"-comparing with the US the EU is doing so much better !  "

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