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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

new variants

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: new variants
    Posted: December 24 2020 at 11:03am

France-Marseille-1 

[url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.23.20248758v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.23.20248758v1 ;

    Abstract

Background: In Marseille, France, the COVID-19 incidence evolved unusually with several successive epidemic episodes. The second outbreak started in July, was associated with North Africa, and involved travelers and an outbreak on passenger ships. This suggested the involvement of a new viral variant. Methods: We sequenced the genomes from 916 SARS-CoV-2 strains from COVID-19 patients in our institute. The patients' demographic and clinical features were compared according to the infecting viral variant. Results: From June 26th to August 14th, we identified a new viral variant (Marseille-1). Based on genome sequences (n = 89) or specific qPCR (n = 53), 142 patients infected with this variant were detected. It is characterized by a combination of 10 mutations located in the nsp2, nsp3, nsp12, S, ORF3a, ORF8 and N/ORF14 genes. We identified Senegal and Gambia, where the virus had been transferred from China and Europe in February-April as the sources of the Marseille-1 variant, which then most likely reached Marseille through Maghreb when French borders reopened. In France, this variant apparently remained almost limited to Marseille. In addition, it was significantly associated with a milder disease compared to clade 20A ancestor strains. Conclusion: Our results demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 can genetically diversify rapidly; its variants can diffuse internationally and cause successive outbreaks.


DJ-France identified an African (Senegal/Gambia) variant this summer (June 26-august 14)....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 24 2020 at 11:06am

Nigeria 

[url]https://globalnews.ca/news/7540767/coronavirus-new-variant-nigeria/[/url] or https://globalnews.ca/news/7540767/coronavirus-new-variant-nigeria/ ;

“It’s a separate lineage from the U.K. and South Africa,” the head of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, John Nkengasong, told reporters. He said the Nigeria CDC and the African Center of Excellence for Genomics of Infectious Diseases in that country — Africa’s most populous — will be analyzing more samples.

The alert about the apparent new variant was based on two or three genetic sequences, he said, but that and South Africa’s alert late last week were enough to prompt an emergency meeting of the Africa CDC this week.

The variant was found in two patient samples collected on Aug. 3 and on Oct. 9 in Nigeria’s Osun state, according to a working research paper seen by The Associated Press.

Unlike the variant seen in the U.K., “we haven’t observed such rapid rise of the lineage in Nigeria and do not have evidence to indicate that the P681H variant is contributing to increased transmission of the virus in Nigeria.

See also [url]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-africa/another-new-coronavirus-variant-found-in-nigeria-says-africa-cdc-idUSKBN28Y1B7[/url] or https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-africa/another-new-coronavirus-variant-found-in-nigeria-says-africa-cdc-idUSKBN28Y1B7

DJ-Also different from summer Senegal/Gambia variant....It would be nice if the Nigeria CDC had more info [url]https://covid19.ncdc.gov.ng/[/url] or https://covid19.ncdc.gov.ng/ 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 24 2020 at 11:16am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 24 2020 at 11:38am

For UK variant [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901351-england-new-variant-of-covid19-coronavirus-may-be-causing-faster-spread-in-some-areas-december-14-more-countries-ban-travel-from-uk/page5[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901351-england-new-variant-of-covid19-coronavirus-may-be-causing-faster-spread-in-some-areas-december-14-more-countries-ban-travel-from-uk/page5 

For SA variant [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901816-south-africa-new-covid-19-variant-identified-501-v2-december-18-2020#post901917[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901816-south-africa-new-covid-19-variant-identified-501-v2-december-18-2020#post901917 

DJ-Most likely there are already lots of variants. The more variants (in humans and/or animals) the bigger the problem. Variants will mix and create new variants further away from the "original" making vaccines less effective and increasing risks for reinfections (or even catching several forms of Covid 19 in one time..). 

India [url]https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/india/covid-19-variant-causing-alarm-in-uk-is-not-a-strain-may-already-be-in-india-say-experts[/url] or https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/india/covid-19-variant-causing-alarm-in-uk-is-not-a-strain-may-already-be-in-india-say-experts referring to UK strain

Brazil [url]https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/2020/12/23/5fe362ae268e3e90568b45e3.html[/url] or https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/2020/12/23/5fe362ae268e3e90568b45e3.html

According to studies carried out by the National Laboratory of Computational Science (LNCC), linked to Brazil's Ministry of Science and Technology and in partnership with the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, the strain was first detected in Rio in October.

Researchers say that 60 percent of cases with this strain are located in Rio but that measures must be taken to avoid it spreading further.

DJ this is also about UK variant ? In october ???


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 24 2020 at 1:02pm

Denmark cluster5 (link to UK variant VIU2020-12-1 ?)

[url]https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/[/url] or https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/

6 November 2020

Since June 2020, 214 human cases of COVID-19 have been identified in Denmark with SARS-CoV-2 variants associated with farmed minks, including 12 cases with a unique variant, reported on 5 November. All 12 cases were identified in September 2020 in North Jutland, Denmark. The cases ranged in age from 7 to 79 years, and eight had a link to the mink farming industry and four cases were from the local community.

Initial observations suggest that the clinical presentation, severity and transmission among those infected are similar to that of other circulating SARS-CoV-2 viruses. However, this variant, referred to as the "cluster 5" variant, had a combination of mutations, or changes that have not been previously observed. The implications of the identified changes in this variant are not yet well understood. Preliminary findings indicate that this particular mink-associated variant identified in both minks and the 12 human cases has moderately decreased sensitivity to neutralizing antibodies.

- [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5 ;  Following the lockdown and mass-testing, SSI announced on 19 November 2020 that cluster 5 in all probability had become extinct.[2]

DJ Or did it survive and transform further ? 

In Denmark there have been five clusters of mink variants of SARS-CoV-2; the Danish State Serum Institute (SSI) has designated these as clusters 1–5 (Danish: cluster 1-5). In cluster 5, also referred to as ΔFVI‑spike by the SSI,[3] several different mutations in the spike protein of the virus have been confirmed. The specific mutations include 69–70deltaHV (a deletion of the histidine and valine residues at the 69th and 70th position in the protein), Y453F (a change from tyrosine to phenylalanine at position 453, inside the spike protein's receptor-binding domain), I692V (isoleucine to valine at position 692), and M1229I (methionine to isoleucine at position 1229).[4][3][5]

Mink-related mutations that partially resemble the mutations discovered in Denmark, although part of a separate genomic group, are known from the Netherlands.[6][7]

And [url]https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/12/22/948961575/what-we-know-about-the-new-u-k-variant-of-coronavirus-and-what-we-need-to-find-o[/url] or https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/12/22/948961575/what-we-know-about-the-new-u-k-variant-of-coronavirus-and-what-we-need-to-find-o

  • Several of the mutations in the variant are worrisome.

Scientists have already studied several of the mutations occurring in B.1.1.7, and they are cause for concern. One mutation, called N501Y, makes the virus bind more tightly to human cells. This mutation has also appeared, independently, in a rapidly spreading variant in South Africa.

Another mutation, called D614G, makes the virus more transmissible. B.1.1.7 also contains a small deletion in the virus's genetic code, called 69-70del, and that deletion helps the new variant evade the body's immune system in some people.

These mutations, combined with the fact that B.1.1.7 acquired many changes simultaneously, suggest this new variant didn't arise by chance, but rather the mutations are giving it an advantage. They are helping it adapt to humans.

DJ The Danish cluster 5 had  (a.o.) mutations at position 69/70 deleted, 453 Y-F, 692 I-V, 1229 M-I

UK variant had (a.o.) 69/70 deleted, 501 N-Y, 614 D-G ...are there similarities between Danish cluster 5 and new UK VUI2020.12.01 ? 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/ sharp increase in Danish cases other possible indication UK variation came from DK ???? [url]https://www.thelocal.dk/20201224/denmark[/url] or https://www.thelocal.dk/20201224/denmark ;

Denmark has discovered 33 Covid-19 infections with the new coronavirus strain that has been spreading rapidly in the UK, reported Reuters.

The State Serum Institute (SSI), Denmark’s infectious disease authority, reported on Wednesday December 23 that the new strain had be found in Covid patients, who tested positive between November 14 and December 14.

So far Denmark has analysed genetic material from 7,805 positive tests during the month-long period. Data shows that the new variant was found in approximately 0.4% of Covid infections.

However, SSI reports that this is only 13.5% of all the positive tests in that period and that percentage could change once more have been analysed.

DJ Allthough only 0,4% of the 7805 sequensed/analysed cases the 33 cases is a high number for such a small country. Other countries so far report 1 or 2 cases-not 33)..

I admit I am speculating. But there seems to be a mink-link to this UK variant-while the UK stopped mink-farming in 2000. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 25 2020 at 12:36am

[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/four-covid-mutation-cases-test-positive-at-israeli-hospital/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/four-covid-mutation-cases-test-positive-at-israeli-hospital/ ;

Air passengers arriving from the UK on Monday were tested at the Sheba government hospital for the covid mutation. On Wednesday, the hospital reported that three had tested positive for the UK variant, the fourth with an unknown strain. 

DJ-an unknown strain...

They had been sent into isolation upon landing at Ben Gurion. The coronavirus director Prof. Nahum Ash commented that the Pfizer vaccine, which has been administered to more than 70,000 Israelis people since Sunday is almost certainly effective against the mutated strain. Israel has meanwhile halted all incoming flights from overseas. Israeli travelers were given a deadline for their return: those arriving up to 10 p.m. Wednesday night are allowed to spend their period of isolation at home, while those  landing later are to be transferred directly to the special quarantine hotels. A committee was set up to approve exceptions, such as sick or elderly people or mothers of infants.

DJ-At least Israel has a plan, may take isolation serious. One may hope they will give more info on the "unknown strain" (already a mix of UK and SA ? Other ?) 

It should not come as a surprise that "variations" show up with this much spread of the virus. It is good UK is monitoring how this virus developes (it is bad news the UK is doing 45% of ALL global monitoring in some claims..). 

Keeping an eye on sequences should be toppriority.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 26 2020 at 9:37am

I notice they said they really didn't know a lot about how these mutations were going to affect the virus....with that said, how can they be so sure the vaccination will work?  I am not anti-vaccine by any means, but from a medical perspective, it seems weird to say in one sentence "we don't know enough about this new strain" and then in another "the vaccine will still work"

NOW is the Season to Know

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hachiban08 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 26 2020 at 10:36am

Japan too now:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/covid-japan-uk-new-strain-b1778897.html

Five new cases of the UK-based coronavirus variant have been detected in Japan, the country’s health officials have announced.

The people have been quarantined, according to local media, with officials working to confirm the routes of infection and check whether there are close contacts who could be at risk of infection.


The highly infectious variant, known officially as B.1.1.7, has already been linked to cases in a number of countries across the world, including Denmark, Singapore, Australia, Italy and Iceland.

Professor Neil Ferguson, a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, said this week that the variant is “almost certainly” in a “great majority” of European countries.


Countries have begun closing their borders to UK travellers in an attempt to curb the spread of B.1.1.7.

Earlier this week, Japan banned the entry of foreign nationals who have been in the UK in the past 14 days.

The country’s immigration authority has also suspended the exemption of a 14-day self-quarantine measure for short-term business travellers who have returned to Japan from Britain.

And beginning Sunday, the government will require all Japanese citizens to submit upon entry a negative result from a virus test taken within 72 hours before departure.

Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 26 2020 at 11:52am

DJ Looking for the Madrid-Spain cases [url]https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-12-21/in-london-people-dont-seem-very-concerned-about-the-new-coronavirus-strain.html[/url] or https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-12-21/in-london-people-dont-seem-very-concerned-about-the-new-coronavirus-strain.html ;

Several people who landed at Manises airport at 10.10am told EL PAÍS that besides these reinforced controls, their impression was that Londoners do not seem particularly concerned about the new strain of coronavirus that has already caused numerous countries to halt flights from the UK.

“We have seen the [UK] government acting very alarmed and even alarmist since Saturday, but people, at least in London, continue not to wear facemasks on the street,” said Natalia Requena, a healthcare worker who was flying back home for the Christmas holidays. “Many people don’t even wear them on public transportation like the Underground, where it’s mandatory, and all of that is having an effect on incidence, of course. People also don’t seem very concerned about the new coronavirus strain.”

Both Requena and her partner, Joan Gisbert, work as nurses at King´s College Hospital, in central London, which is currently under confinement orders. “Distances are not observed, either. You see tons of people on the street who are not respecting social distancing. How can all this not affect transmission?” said Gisbert.

Gisbert and Requena moved to London seven years ago in search of job opportunities that they could not find in Spain. They have first-hand experience with the toughest moments of the first wave of the pandemic, when “there were two deaths on every shift.” Now they undergo fast diagnostic tests every week at work. They are flying back to London on January 4, and do not think the new travel restrictions will pose a problem.

News of the 4 cases in Madrid-likely already infecting 3 others was in (UK press) [url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/26/spain-and-sweden-report-cases-of-uk-covid-variant[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/26/spain-and-sweden-report-cases-of-uk-covid-variant ;

Four cases of the variant have been confirmed in Madrid. All involve people who recently arrived from the UK, the Madrid regional government’s deputy health chief, Antonio Zapatero, told a news conference on Saturday.


“The patients are not seriously ill, we know that this strain is more transmissible but it does not cause more serious illness,” he said. “There is no need for alarm.”

A further three suspected cases of the new variant have been tested, but the results will only be available on Tuesday or Wednesday, Zapatero said.

-

Swedish authorities detected the new strain after a traveller from Britain fell ill on arrival and tested positive, Sweden’s health agency said on Saturday.

Sara Byfors, a health agency official, told a news conference that the traveller, who was not identified, had kept isolated after arrival in Sweden and that no further positive cases had yet been detected.

DJ-I more and more get the feeling people taking this pandemic serious are seen as "crazy ones"...it is "normal" to take the risk...With that attitude the pandemic wins. 

In SA [url]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-safrica-idUSKBN28Z0R0[/url] or https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-safrica-idUSKBN28Z0R0 ;

“I called them back because we are in a peak period now, so it’s not easy for the staff because they also want to go back to their family members,” she told Reuters on the ward on Christmas Day.

“Sometimes they are tired but they never say ‘I can’t come to work’. The patient is really always first for them.”

A confluence of school holidays, public laxity and a new, potentially more infectious variant of the virus has left authorities scrambling to counter an earlier-than-expected resurgence of infections that saw new daily cases spike nearly seven-fold from a month ago to top 14,305 on Dec. 24.


In the US [url]https://twitter.com/alexbolze/status/1341955114043662336[/url] or https://twitter.com/alexbolze/status/1341955114043662336One key point is that the B.1.1.7 variant has not been identified in the US so far. But the US is doing very little sequencing of the virus compared to the UK for example. So really, we need more information.

DJ-The sad truth may be over ten "variants" may be running allover the globe-most not even detected yet-due to "very little sequencing"...

[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/british-covid-variant-identified-in-several-european-countries/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/british-covid-variant-identified-in-several-european-countries/The coronavirus mutation, linked to people who had come from the UK, was identified on Saturday in France, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland, as well as four cases in Israel. Its discovery in Britain prompted broad curbs on travel.


.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 27 2020 at 12:12am

DJ

Let me be clear-I do not want people getting depressed due to my writing. I try to inform people, in the mean time also try to be realist. 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0l3EYrWjGEI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0l3EYrWjGEI Dr. John Campbell on variants and vaccines.

-Lots of cases of the UK showing up in testing. UK and Denmark (DK) are doing most of the global sequensing (="reading" virusses, also looking for changes) there for in DK they already detected 33 UK-variants in four regions. Dr.J.C. does not want to "speculate" this means UK-variant seeing community spread in Denmark-I (DJ-no science base) am willing to do so. 

-Lots of other countries around the globe report UK variants-often-but not always linked to a UK travel history. If the infected person did not had any UK travel history-and his/her contacts also did not have that it suggest community spread. DJ-For NL, Belgium it looks like community spread...

-Dr.J.C. "normal" NPI will not stop the spread of this UK variant-you need extra safety (even further limit contacts, meet outdoors, masks etc). He is even more worried about the SA variant it looks like it may bring more severe illness to younger people. (DJ-It is summer in South Africa, schools did close, party-time=also more spread in young people).

(DJ-Dr.J.C. would love to work on evidence-but in fact-with all respect, he is doing a great job !- he is speculating a lot still-we simply do not have all the facts.)

-DJ In Brazil bolsenaro (not getting a vaccination because he has had Covid 19-and therefor "natural immunity") and the Sao Paulo governer are in conflict. Bolsenaro is supporting Pfizer and AstraZeneca, the SP governer is supporting a Chinese vaccine. News of limited effectivity of that Chinese vaccine should be seen against that background.

-Dr.J.C. underlines "mutations" so far we know did change less than 1% (DJ even less then 0,1%) of the Covid19 virus. Vaccines should be able to deal with those mutations. (DJ-I am not a medical expert but I hope he is correct.)

-Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines are being used around the globe. Dr.J.C. is expecting AstraZeneca/Oxford (AZ/O) vaccine will get approval this week-production will start at 20 locations around the globe. DJ AZ/O is cheap, can be stored at fridge temperature-looks like "easy for mass production". 

-Some countries already using-as a testphase-Sputnik V and SinoVac Russian and Chinese vaccines. Lots of (cheap, easy to use) vaccines are being developed. In a few months time DJ-the picture I get there can be "billions" of vaccines available...

Will these vaccines end the pandemic, deal with the (known) variants ? In my (DJ) opinion that seems to be very likely. 

On the short term there still will be virus spread. Even a first vaccine gives (55%) protection after a few days. Vaccines may not be able to deal with all infections (94,5% effectivity means it will not work in 5,5% of the cases) but the outlook for (summer) 2021 is starting to look better...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 27 2020 at 6:36am

Speaking as a moderator, Josh, you could NEVER depress me.  It is lovely to read threads which I do not have to moan about, edit, delete, smack wrists for or even worry about their offending someone.

Thank you!

Believers don't need proof and sceptics won't accept proof.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 27 2020 at 6:50am

And I look forward to your Scenarios, so I know what's going on in the rest of the world that is not the ethnocentric US.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 27 2020 at 7:58am

Thanks Techno, ViQueen24, it is nice there is (still) room on the internet where "I can do my thing" (try to be honest on history, developments-as far as I have some basic understanding of them..) 

-[url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20201227001852315?section=national/national[/url] or https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20201227001852315?section=national/national South Korea did see another unexpected increase of cases; 

SEOUL/SUWON, South Korea, Dec. 27 (Yonhap) -- An elderly South Korean man, who recently returned from Britain, has posthumously tested positive for COVID-19, officials said Sunday, prompting authorities to look into whether he contracted a new variant fast spreading in the European nation.

The man in his 80s had remained in self-quarantine at home in Goyang, northwest of Seoul, after arriving from Britain on Dec. 13. He passed away Saturday morning at a hospital after experiencing cardiac arrest.

Samples from the man's body revealed that he was positive with COVID-19. Health authorities are examining whether the virus strain from the body is that of the new variant reportedly spreading fast in Britain.

-

Meanwhile, two family members of the elderly man tested positive for COVID-19, while the man's wife was waiting for her test results.

The three also recently arrived from Britain, according to officials. Their virus samples will be examined for whether they are of the variant type.

DJ-Possible link to China (???) [url]https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/beijing-bans-travel-outside-city-for-lunar-new-year-after-new-cases-20201226-p56q8i.html[/url] or https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/beijing-bans-travel-outside-city-for-lunar-new-year-after-new-cases-20201226-p56q8i.html ;

Beijing: Beijing has urged residents not to leave the city during the upcoming Lunar New Year holidays, implementing fresh restrictions after several coronavirus infections last week.

Two domestic cases were reported on Friday, a convenience store worker and a Hewlett Packard Enterprise employee. Another two asymptomatic cases were discovered in Beijing earlier in the week.

Beijing is conducting testing on a limited scale in the neighbourhoods and workplaces where the cases were found.

To contain any new outbreaks, the Beijing government cancelled big gatherings such as sports events and fairs. It says applications will be strictly reviewed for any major events. Venues such as cinemas, libraries and museums have to operate at 75 per cent capacity, the government said.


It also called on companies not to arrange business trips outside the city and abroad.

-

Separately, officials in the northeastern port city of Dalian said Friday that they had tested over 4.75 million people for the coronavirus after 24 confirmed infections this month.

Authorities have shut schools and all public spaces in five neighbourhood divisions in Dalian and only essential workers can leave their compounds to go to work.


DJ-In a "worstcase scenario", very bad, virus variants could spread that fast, new variants show up, NPI and vaccines "may have a very hard job" to get any grip on the pandemic. China is supposed to at least keep something of a global economy going. Their vaccine-production capacity is very much needed...(Is the East Asia outbreak from the UK variant, another variant or a new East Asia variant ? )

UK variant also Madeira/Portugal and in Jordan...link with UK travel.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 28 2020 at 6:39am

DJ,

NL is the only EU country not starting vaccinations yet..cases go up, hospital care is at breaking point. Part of the explanation may be in [url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/28/nine-cases-british-coronavirus-mutation-found-netherlands[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/28/nine-cases-british-coronavirus-mutation-found-netherlands

A highly-contagious mutation of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has been found a total of eleven times in the Netherlands, up from the two cases previously disclosed in Amsterdam. Five of the cases were tied to a primary school in Rotterdam, Health Minister Hugo de Jonge said in a letter to Parliament on Monday.

The Outbreak Management Team advising the Dutch Cabinet will meet on Wednesday to discuss the situation and provide direction with the handling of the new developments. He did not explicitly mention any new coronavirus restrictions, other than to ask the public to continue to strictly limit household guests to a maximum of two, also during New Year’s celebration.

-

Of the eleven cases in the Netherlands, five were linked to teachers and students at an undisclosed Rotterdam school. “Because an outbreak at a primary school is remarkable and much is still unknown, the RIVM, together with the GGD in Rotterdam, decided to investigate this cluster further. Not only the teachers and pupils who are infected are examined, but also the households of these teachers and pupils, and the situation at the school is also further mapped out by means of questionnaires,” De Jonge wrote.


While much was still unknown about the Rotterdam cluster, one case in Nijmegen was discovered in a person who has recently had a personal connection to the United Kingdom. Five Amsterdam cases in total have also been tied to the mutation through source and contact investigations and also random monitoring of coronavirus test samples.

“Over the course of this week and next, several hundred samples from all regions will be examined for the study of the degree of distribution in the Netherlands,” De Jonge wrote. Chantal Reusken, the leading virologist at public health agency RIVM, said she anticipated the British mutation to show up in the Netherlands much more frequently, starting this week.

DJ-I do expect NL cases "to explode"...worse news from South Africa; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901816-south-africa-new-covid-19-variant-identified-501-v2-december-18-2020/page2[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901816-south-africa-new-covid-19-variant-identified-501-v2-december-18-2020/page2 ; ‘New wave’ Covid-19 curbs loom as hospitals fill up, oxygen is rationed

27 December 2020 - 00:05BY CLAIRE KEETON

Tougher restrictions could be imposed nationwide when the National Coronavirus Command Council meets this week to discuss a Covid-19 resurgence, partly driven by a highly transmissible mutation of the virus.



Dr Andrea Mendelsohn, a senior Western Cape medical officer, wrote in an open letter to Cape Town this week: "Once the beds are full and oxygen used up - we are rapidly approaching that point - then my hospital and so many others will not be able to help. They will be clearing stations for corpses. This is my nightmare and yours.

"If hypoxic patients - where there's a lack of oxygen in the blood - are put on a waiting list for high-flow nasal oxygen, they are in all likelihood waiting to die, she wrote, appealing to people to wear masks, practise social distancing and socialise outdoors.

Dr Katrin Stüve, a senior internal medicine specialist at Helderberg Hospital in Somerset West, said people were "a lot sicker this time, with patients between 30 and 50, with no comorbidities, more critical and succumbing to the disease". She added: "In our hospital we have a small oxygen tank that used to be filled once a week, but now it gets filled every day."



https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-t...n-is-rationed/

(Okieman Comment: I suggest taking the time to read this article. I have bolded and put in red some of the text I found to be most important. It is one that is hard to read but I believe the world needs to look at this variant very closely. Most of the media is giving lots of attention to the UK variant, and understandably so, but this variant may be significantly more dangerous.)

DJ-Global inaction (and widespread stupidity) will ensure both SA and UK "variants" will become dominant-my guess is the SA variant will push aside the UK variant within a few months...worldwide. (Very bad news !!!)

From Israel [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/new-covid-infection-highest-in-7-days-also-379000-vaccinations/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/new-covid-infection-highest-in-7-days-also-379000-vaccinations/  go together with [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/knesset-committee-rules-all-school-classes-to-reopen/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/knesset-committee-rules-all-school-classes-to-reopen/ The UK variant is already in Israel, (and Jordan-most likely in most of MENA Middle East/North Africa) does spread via children...what can go wrong ? Vaccinating teachers does give very limited protection-after the first vaccination. In Belgium there are plans to go for widely giving most people just one vaccination in a first round...experts warn against such ideas. If a lot of vaccinated-by just one shot-people still get Covid19 (or a variant) it may make the virus "able to evade vaccination"...since NPI has not much support left, vaccines have to do "the job" but it has to get a chance to do so ! 

[url]https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/further-restrictions-needed-to-curb-the-spread-of-coronavirus-mkhize/[/url] or https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/further-restrictions-needed-to-curb-the-spread-of-coronavirus-mkhize/  and [url]https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/explainer-what-is-the-new-covid-19-variant/[/url] or https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/explainer-what-is-the-new-covid-19-variant/


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 28 2020 at 7:56am

A more deadly strain has the potential to wipe itself out - dead people usually spread less virus and do so over a smaller area (they don't walk, drive or fly).  There are exceptions, but that is the 'rule of thumb'.

The UK variant is more of a worry.  The 80% fatal recent ebola outbreak killed a little over 2k.  The far less deadly coronavirus is at 1.6M and still rising.  Its ability to spread better and the lack of a high-enough death rate to worry the covidiots could give it a huge headstart.  This will become the dominant strain worldwide - FOR CERTAIN.   As Carbon says, the more patients, the better the chances of another nastier strain emerging from the next mutation.


This is never going to be the 'slate wiper', as human beings have a history of fighting off coronaviruses - like one generator of the common cold.  But it could get even more disasterous than it currently is.  

In fact it looks on course to.

The risks of an uncontrolled spread are not understood by most of the public.  They see the low death rate and make their minds up.  No further information is assimilated or researched.  Facets of the viral spread are also believed to be generaly understood, whereas in fact, they are totally beyond the mathematical grasp of the masses.

Most of the costs will only be understood by said 'masses' in hindsight.  Some never will.

Believers don't need proof and sceptics won't accept proof.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WillobyBrat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 28 2020 at 8:19am

As a point of interest, if anyone is interested in paleontology, and more specifically paleoanthropology, you can look back for hundreds of millions of years and see a series of slate-wiping events.  But going back to the beginning of the evolutionary process amongst anthropoids (which led to us) you will see that there is approximately one catastrophe for every evolutionary variant (that led to us).  Those variants, up to and including the neanderthal, were all wiped from the face of the Earth as individual species.  The neanderthallers were quite a bit smarter than us in many ways and they chose to interbreed with a smaller-brained, physically-less-powerful species rather than die out completely.  That inferior species is the only one left on this planet, us: homo sapiens, sapiens.

We have in the last hundred and fifty thousand years faced two natural massive ELE events and survived in a changed world.  Additionally we faced a series of pandemics - about one every fourth generation.  (A generation is counted as 30 years.)  Every 26 thousand years there is a naturally-caused ELE event, such as we are facing now with global warming.  We have, since our breeding with the neanderthallers (which places the crossbreeding as between 30 and 40 thousand years ago) managed to get through every fight-for-life we have been faced with.

By the way, global warming does not have to be man-made to be both real and a huge threat.  The ice began melting 13 thousand years ago and I have not noticed any remains, from various digs, of people from that time driving old SUVs.  That is NOT to say that our activities have not speeded up the change massively.

No doubt we will survive this pair of ELE events and come through as  a modified and superior species.  (It is Wonderful what a threatening situation can do to bring the best out in us.)

I like Ike
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 28 2020 at 12:39pm

[url]https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/update_new_uk_south_african_variant_covid_strains_detected_in_finland/11716211[/url] or https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/update_new_uk_south_african_variant_covid_strains_detected_in_finland/11716211 ;

Three people who recently returned to Finland from abroad have been diagnosed with new strains of the coronavirus, according to a joint press release from the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health (STM), the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) and the Helsinki University Hospital District (HUS).

Two of the infections are a variant of the coronavirus that was recently identified in the UK and one has been confirmed to have been infected by the variant found in South Africa.

-

According to the joint statement, the infected patients are presently in good condition and are being treated in isolation. People who may have been exposed to the new virus variants have been quarantined and have been asked to undergo a coronavirus test.

One variant infection found earlier on Monday

Earlier on Monday, Finnish health authorities in Kymenlaakso confirmed that a new strain of the coronavirus—initially discovered in the UK—had been detected in a patient diagnosed over the Christmas holiday.

DJ-From South Africa (Suid Afrika-also a lot of Dutch people living there..) [url]https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/sa-moves-to-an-adjested-level-3-lockdown/[/url] or https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/sa-moves-to-an-adjested-level-3-lockdown/

President Cyril Ramaphosa has announced that South Africa will, from today at midnight, move to an adjusted Level 3 of the lockdown in the fight against the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19). He says the number of new coronavirus cases is rising in an “alarming and unprecedented manner.”

Since Christmas Eve, there have been more than 50 000 new cases.

DJ-South Africa-bordering from west-Atlantic coast-Namibia-Botswana-Zimbabwe to east Mozambique has limited means of testing, treating large numbers of cases. Its northern neighbours are even less ready to deal with increasing cases. 

Techno-I agree "a virus can become to deadly to maintain itself"-this SA variant seems to be more infectious AND causing more severe illness (in younger patients). Why do I think the SA "variant" will even dominate the UK one ? 

1. Spreading under the radar-not only in southern Africa but most likely in other parts of the globe with communities from that area-often "without papers/legal status".  SA is "the UK of Africa for migrants". 

2. The picture I am getting the SA "variant" may be even more infectious-spreading in communities with less chances to get help in time, isolate. 

3. There is still to much international travel-not only by (smaller) planes, also by ship, train and car/truck. Western larger (air)ports may be controlled. One thing to monitor is SA cases showing up in Congo, Zambia, or even further north...The spread of the SA "variant" may move to India, Latin America before reaching Europe/US. Most people do NOT live in "the west" (as you most certainly are aware of). Both Angola and Mozambiqua (portuguese speaking) have oil export/China investments..(and with such a combination of oil & China IS/CIA activity)

4. The UK cases will be detected more and earlier-the SA cases/variants spread in hiding...

5. Vaccinations in Africa may start in Africa in 2024 ? UK variant will be under vaccine-pressure already

6. The SA variant most likely has been spreading longer-and in a much larger area. The UK is doing 45% of the sequencing of virusses worldwide. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 28 2020 at 2:04pm

Originally posted by WillobyBrat WillobyBrat wrote:

As a point of interest, if anyone is interested in paleontology, and more specifically paleoanthropology, you can look back for hundreds of millions of years and see a series of slate-wiping events.  But going back to the beginning of the evolutionary process amongst anthropoids (which led to us) you will see that there is approximately one catastrophe for every evolutionary variant (that led to us).  Those variants, up to and including the neanderthal, were all wiped from the face of the Earth as individual species.  The neanderthallers were quite a bit smarter than us in many ways and they chose to interbreed with a smaller-brained, physically-less-powerful species rather than die out completely.  That inferior species is the only one left on this planet, us: homo sapiens, sapiens.

We have in the last hundred and fifty thousand years faced two natural massive ELE events and survived in a changed world.  Additionally we faced a series of pandemics - about one every fourth generation.  (A generation is counted as 30 years.)  Every 26 thousand years there is a naturally-caused ELE event, such as we are facing now with global warming.  We have, since our breeding with the neanderthallers (which places the crossbreeding as between 30 and 40 thousand years ago) managed to get through every fight-for-life we have been faced with.

By the way, global warming does not have to be man-made to be both real and a huge threat.  The ice began melting 13 thousand years ago and I have not noticed any remains, from various digs, of people from that time driving old SUVs.  That is NOT to say that our activities have not speeded up the change massively.

No doubt we will survive this pair of ELE events and come through as  a modified and superior species.  (It is Wonderful what a threatening situation can do to bring the best out in us.)

Agree.......

However.....the planet needs us to slow down our use of fossil fuels.....

Most have no idea when and how  coal /oil "became",like most would not have a clue where "iron"comes from!!!!!!!!!

Only want to believe in science when they board a plane,

drive a car,

need a VACCINE!!!!!!

Take care all  πŸ˜·πŸ˜·πŸ˜‰

PS.my grandchildrens genes are a mix of, Sri Lankan,Indian,German,Irish,French,English,Jewish,Polish,Portuguise,Scotish.....and who knows what else.......

Darwin rules....diversity......wins.....


Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 29 2020 at 2:48am

DJ-India [url]https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/covid-19-india-reports-new-uk-variant-of-coronavirus-how-dangerous-is-it-1754121-2020-12-29[/url] or https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/covid-19-india-reports-new-uk-variant-of-coronavirus-how-dangerous-is-it-1754121-2020-12-29

Six of the passengers returning from the UK have tested positive for the new variant of SARS-CoV-2 that causes Covid-19. This comes at a time when India has started reporting fresh cases at a level it reported back in June. How to take entry of new variant of coronavirus in India?

Around 33,000 passengers arrived in India from the UK — where a more infectious coronavirus variant was first detected — between November 25 and December 23, when flight operations were suspended. Of all the returnees, 114 tested positive for Covid-19.

Now six of them have been confirmed to have been infected by and carrying the new variant of SARS-CoV-2. The genome sequencing for the rest is underway at various laboratories in India.

Of the six Covid-19 patients carrying new variant of coronavirus, three are in Bengaluru’s NIMHANS, two in Hyderabad’s Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology and the other in Pune’s National Institute of Virology. All six patients are in isolation. Their close contacts have been traced and put under quarantine. Comprehensive contact tracing is underway.

DJ-33.000 passengers to India from the UK since november 25 till the stopping of direct airlinks. Very likely tens of thousends in the weeks before that. So 50.000+ people from the Uk travelled to India while the UK variant was spreading...not good !

-[url]https://www.rt.com/uk/510965-uk-vaccines-10-times-study/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/uk/510965-uk-vaccines-10-times-study/ ;

The UK must increase its vaccinations to 2 million doses per week – a tenfold jump – and keep up a national Tier 4 lockdown if it is to curtail a spike in Covid-19 driven by a highly infectious strain, a new study has warned.

Conducted by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and delivered to the UK’s official SAGE [The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies] advisory group late last week, the research notes that with a new coronavirus strain found to be “56% more transmissible” than other known variants, the country faces a significant “wave” of infections, hospitalizations and deaths short of continued restrictions and a vast ramping-up of its vaccine program.

“We found that regardless of control measures simulated, all NHS regions are projected to experience a subsequent wave of Covid-19 cases and deaths, peaking in spring 2021 for London, South East and East of England, and in summer 2021 for the rest of England,” according to the study, which was based on mathematical modeling.

We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures. It may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to have an appreciable impact in suppressing the resulting disease burden.


While the researchers noted they could not find “clear evidence” that the new strain results in more severe symptoms, its greater transmissibility “is likely to lead to a large increase” in Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths, even with the restrictions that were in place before December 19. Only an “England-wide” Tier 4 lockdown – currently the highest level on the country’s multi-level framework – coupled with a rapid increase in vaccinations can reduce the “peak ICU burden” to numbers below those seen in 2020.

“Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number... unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed,” the study went on, referring to the rate at which the coronavirus spreads.

However, even with the recommended 2 million vaccinations per week and a national Tier 4 lockdown, the researchers’ models estimated 35,700 additional deaths in the UK between now and the end of June. Short of the tenfold boost to inoculations and tightened restrictions, that projection soared to 118,000 deaths.

DJ-The only "good news" is the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine soon may be ready, other vaccines are almost ready for use...the UK variant is spreading high speed outside the UK....horror !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hachiban08 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 29 2020 at 2:13pm

It is in Colorado now.   https://www.foxla.com/news/first-known-us-case-of-uk-covid-19-variant-confirmed-in-colorado


First known US case of UK COVID-19 variant confirmed in Colorado


DENVER - The U.S. has confirmed its first case of a new, likely more transmissible variant of the coronavirus first identified in the U.K.

 

On Tuesday, Colorado Gov. Jared Polis reported that state health officials discovered the first case of the COVID-19 variant B.1.1.7 in a man in his 20s. 

 

 

"There is a lot we don’t know about this new COVID-19 variant, but scientists in the United Kingdom are warning the world that it is significantly more contagious. The health and safety of Coloradans is our top priority and we will closely monitor this case, as well as all COVID-19 indicators, very closely. We are working to prevent spread and contain the virus at all levels," said Polis in a tweeted statement. 


(I took a screenshot of that tweet because I couldn't get it to post correctly to my copied text - showed up as a server error 404)

British authorities are blaming the new variant of the coronavirus for soaring infection rates in London and southeast England. They say the new version is more easily transmitted than the original, but stress there is no evidence it makes people sicker.

In response, authorities have put a swath of England that’s home to 24 million people under restrictions that require nonessential shops to close, bar indoor socializing and allow restaurants and pubs only to operate for takeout.

  

Even so, hospital admissions for COVID-19 in southeast England are approaching or exceeding the levels seen at the first peak of the outbreak. Government figures show 21,286 people were hospitalized with the coronavirus across the U.K. on Dec. 22, the last day for which data is available. That is only slightly below the high of 21,683 COVID-19 patients who were recorded in U.K. hospitals on April 12.

On Tuesday, the United Arab Emirates detected the country’s first known cases of the B.1.1.7 variant of the coronavirus. The UAE’s National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority reported Tuesday it found "a limited number of cases received from abroad," without specifying how many or where the travelers had been.

 

UK travel restricted due to new coronavirus strain

 

Belgium, Ireland, Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands implemented restrictions for travel to and from the UK from Dec. 20, causing chaos at transit hubs just days before the Christmas holiday.

In response, neighboring Gulf countries halted international commercial flights. The UAE, with its large population of British expats, has remained open to tourists. Those arriving from the U.K. are required to get tested for the virus upon arrival in Dubai.

On Monday, Japan began barring entry of all nonresident foreign nationals as a precaution against the new virus strain. The Foreign Ministry says the entry ban will last through Jan. 31.

Colorado Governor Jared Polis, left, points to the Covid-19 vaccine in a small vial as he watches as Gina Harper, clinical coordinator with pharmacy, right, reconstitutes a dose of the Covid-19 vaccine before it is administered to the first patients   (Photo by Helen H. Richardson/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)

 

Last week, Japan banned nonresident foreigners coming from Britain and South Africa after confirming the new variant in seven people over two days — five from Britain who tested positive at airports and two others in Tokyo.

On Sunday, officials in Canada’s most populous province also identified confirmed cases of the contagious new form of COVID-19. 

The province’s associate chief medical officer says that the cases are a couple from Durham Region, just east of Toronto, with no known travel history, exposure or high-risk contacts.

The coronavirus variant in the United Kingdom has caused global alarm because of the possibility that it might spread more easily. But experts say the COVID-19 vaccines being rolled out will likely still work on the variant.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious disease expert, said data coming from Britain indicates the vaccines still will block the virus. But the U.S. also will do tests to be sure.

RELATED: Fauci, CDC say new COVID-19 strain accelerating spread in UK may already be in US

Fauci previously said that the new variant has most likely already been on U.S. soil even before being positively identified in Colorado. 

"When you see something that is pretty prevalent in a place like the U.K. — there are also mutations that we’re seeing in South Africa — and given the travel throughout the world, I would not be surprised if it is already here," Fauci told PBS.

Viruses often undergo small changes as they reproduce and move through a population. In fact, the slight modifications are how scientists track the spread of a virus from one place to another.

But if a virus mutates significantly enough, one worry is that current vaccines might no longer offer as much protection. And although that's a possibility to watch for over time with the coronavirus, experts say they don't believe it will be the case with the variant in the U.K.

"My expectation is, this will not be a problem," said Moncef Slaoui, the chief science adviser for the U.S. government’s COVID-19 vaccine push.

Vaccine maker Pfizer-BioNTech told FOX Television Stations that its researchers are currently testing its vaccine, which was the first authorized for emergency use by the FDA, against the new strain of COVID-19. Researchers said they expected new strains of the virus and took that into account when developing the vaccine that’s now being distributed in the U.S.

"We don't know at the moment if our vaccine is also able to provide protection against this new variant," BionNTech's CEO Ugur Sahin said in a news conference the day after the vaccine was approved for use in the European Union. "But scientifically, it is highly likely that the immune response by this vaccine also can deal with the new virus variants."

Chris Williams and the Associated Press contributed to this story. 

Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 29 2020 at 5:28pm

Unless I missed it, the article fails to state the Colorado patient has no history of travel.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hachiban08 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 29 2020 at 6:51pm

It's embedded in that tweet from the Governor it seems, WitchMisspelled. I almost missed that too. I noticed that some other articles put it within the actual article though. I wonder if this is related to those case numbers from In-N-Out Burger that I keep seeing on the news around here out of Colorado. I don't really know the area of CO though as I've never been there, but could that have been a cause? Like a chain reaction of sorts.

Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 30 2020 at 1:23am

DJ, 

Chili, Taiwan also report "UK variants". I think we are boyond the point if the "found case has recent UK travel history". The "UK variant" (UKV ?) has been spreading since-at least-september on a limited scale in the UK. Cases "exploded" in november-by then it must have been spreading outside the UK as well. (DJ-In Dutch press the US-Colorado case "in a young man with no known travel history"...)

[url]https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Dr-Fauci-The-Pandemic-Is-Out-of-Control-in-the-US-20201229-0015.html[/url] or https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Dr-Fauci-The-Pandemic-Is-Out-of-Control-in-the-US-20201229-0015.html

“We very well might see a post-seasonal - in the sense of Christmas, New Year's - surge, and, as I have described it, as a surge upon a surge,” the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID ) Director said in an interview on CNN in which he explained that the U.S. is entering a fourth spike in infections since the beginning of spring.

Fauci added that the situation "very difficult" because his country never had a period with low contagions, which would have allowed authorities to control "expansion through identification, isolation, and follow-up of contacts."

"We are really at a very critical point... as we get into the next few weeks, it might actually get worse,” he added.

DJ-A mix of events make the view on the present pandemic complex;

1 News on vaccines may have given people a false sense of safety (not onwelcome for most politicians-"they are having a succes", limiting economic damage etc. but news on vaccines does not stop spreading any virus...first vaccinations only-after a few days-give limited (40%) protection...People getting Covid19 after a first vaccination may be a very major risl factor for decreasing vaccine effectivity..)

2 Christmas/New Year most likely will see more spread less testing...

3 Schools closed during this time means spread in children/young adults may go different

The "good news"on the UK variant is that it is missing one of three segments picked up in PCR testing. The S-part 69/70 segment is deleted in the "UKV". (Except in at least one Hong Kong case-but 99% of cases) 

[url]https://www.krisp.org.za/news.php?id=460[/url] or https://www.krisp.org.za/news.php?id=460 One question I have on the South Africa Variant (SAV) is does it also miss "part" 69/70 ? The UKv and SAV both have a "shift"at location 501 from N to Y .

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant does not answer that (yet) ;

Spread[edit]

Matt Hancock announced that two people who had traveled from South Africa to the UK were infected with 501.V2.[12] On December 28, the variant had been detected in two individuals in Switzerland [14] and in one individual in Finland.[15] By December 29 the strain had been detected in a visitor from South Africa to Japan,[16] and in one overseas traveller in Queensland, Australia.[17]

DJ Since finding variants is high tech labor intensive and costly most countries do not do enough sequencing. UK=45% of the global job !!!

Both variants UKV and SAV had enough time and "flights" to spread around the globe-so they will be spreading right now....

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/30/uk-coronavirus-strain-found-school-rotterdam-area-teacher-38-died[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/30/uk-coronavirus-strain-found-school-rotterdam-area-teacher-38-died ;

An outbreak of the B117 mutation of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, which initially emerged in the United Kingdom, was linked to a cluster of coronavirus infections at the Willibrordschool, a primary school north of Rotterdam. A 38-year-old teacher who died last Thursday was one of the people who tested positive for a coronavirus infection at the school, though it was not yet clear if she was infected with the B117 variant.

-

The school has dealt with about 40 coronavirus infections between students, parents, and teachers since the end of November. Five of them were identified as carrying the B117 mutation, the school confirmed after Health Minister Hugo de Jonge released some details about the cluster. There was no direct connection to the United Kingdom found during the source and contact investigations.

In an interview with regional broadcaster Rijnmond, Schenning said it was not yet clear if the teacher’s death was due to Covid-19, or if she was one of those infected with the UK strain. NL Times reviewed two reports from the RIVM released on Tuesday which showed the agency learned last week that one person aged 35-39 died as a result of Covid-19, and that the person killed was female.

“We have no idea how the infection originated, but we know through the GGD that there is no link with England," Schenning told the broadcaster. “Of course that is disappointing and worrisome. We are the first school in the Netherlands, so you know that there is a lot of attention for it."

DJ-A major cluster at a NL school-in NOVEMBER !!- with 5 of 40 positive cases the UKV and NO link to UK travel found indicates the UKV did spread outside the UK already in november...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01 ;

A variant with the same N501Y change (which may result in higher transmissibility), but with a separate lineage from the UK variant, was also detected in South Africa.[70] The N501Y change has also been detected elsewhere: in Australia in June–July, in the US in July, and in Brazil in April, and it is not yet clear if it arose spontaneously in the UK, or was imported.[71]

this indicates "N501Y" mutations has been spreading at least since april...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2 may be also worth watching-will be updated



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 30 2020 at 6:12am

I haven't seen anything about In-and-Out, Hachi.  But clearly someone travelled from an infected country that didn't quarantine or was caught.  Either way, its here.  And no matter where it is in the country, we need to remain vigilant.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 30 2020 at 7:00am


https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/30/health/colorado-uk-coronavirus-variant/index.html


CNN)Health officials in a Colorado county believe they've found a second local case of a coronavirus variant from the United Kingdom -- one that experts have said may be especially contagious -- a county public health director said Wednesday.


That news comes a day after the first known case of the variant in the US was announced in Colorado's Elbert County.

Both the confirmed case and the suspected instance involve men who had been working at the Good Samaritan Society assisted living facility in Simla, about 45 miles northeast of Colorado Springs, county health director Dwayne Smith told CNN.

Neither are residents of Elbert County, and they are isolating outside the county, Smith said. There is "no indication at this point" that this event has gone beyond the facility and into the larger community, he said.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 30 2020 at 7:06am

https://bgr.com/2020/12/29/uk-coronavirus-mutation-origin-italy-brescia-patient/#



  • New research shows that the new coronavirus mutation spreading rapidly in England may have actually originated in Italy.
  • An immunocompromised patient developed an asymptomatic case of COVID-19, testing positive from April through November.
  • After sequencing the virus, researchers found various similarities to the UK and South African mutations that were discovered recently. Some of them speculate that the Brescia mutation might have been a precursor to the B.1.1.7 mutation in the UK.


Patient MB61 from Brescia, Italy, was immunocompromised because of an unspecified preexisting illness, which seemed to be a major risk for COVID-19. But the person never developed any COVID-19 symptoms. Italian newspaper La Republica reports that Arnaldo Caruso, the president of the Italian Society of Virology and a professor at Brescia University, decided to sequence the virus’s genome. The procedure isn’t as frequent in Italy as in the UK, where 10% of cases are sequenced.

Once the virus’s genetic signature was obtained, researchers were surprised to find mutations in common with the B.1.1.7 strain. Massimo Ciccozzi told the paper that he thinks the Brescia mutation might precede the UK strain, but the researchers aren’t certain. Ciccozzi is the chief of the medical statistics and molecular epidemiology unit of the Campus Biomedico in Rome. That’s where the Brescia mutation was studied.

The mutation features a change in the spike protein that the experts call 501. The genetic change would not cause a problem for vaccines, but it could make the virus more infectious. The same mutation is found in the South African mutation that was detailed a few days ago, and it is reportedly present in 80% to 90% of infections in the African nation.

The Brescia strain had 9 mutations in August in addition to the 501 mutation. The number grew to 13 by November. La Republica notes the UK strain has 23 mutations, a few more than the previously reported 17 changes. Ciccozzi said the mutation numbers seem high, but it’s not true that the virus mutates rarely or slowly. He added that a few more weeks are needed to determine the effect of the 501 mutation on cells.

Before the UK mutation, the best-known strain of the virus was D614G, which is believed to have allowed the virus to become a pandemic. That strain has been in circulation since March, and it is believed to have originated in China. It then traveled to Europe and the US, quickly becoming the most dominant strain of the SARS -CoV-2 virus

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 30 2020 at 9:10am

"These mutations, combined with the fact that B.1.1.7 acquired many changes simultaneously, suggest this new variant didn't arise by chance, but rather the mutations are giving it an advantage. They are helping it adapt to humans."

 What is that supposed to mean? That statement sounds ominous.

Hey guys, been a while since i posted, been lurking, and notice Dutch's thread....peaked my interest.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 30 2020 at 10:29am

DJ The Dutch november (no UK link) Rotterdam schoolcluster is now finding at least 9 UKV cases-most likely more  (most likely most of the 40) to be found.  Pixie-good info on the Italy link for UK variant.[url]https://www.rijnmond.nl/nieuws/202592/Meer-besmettingen-met-Britse-variant-van-coranavirus-in-Bergschenhoek-geen-verrassing-voor-GGD[/url] or https://www.rijnmond.nl/nieuws/202592/Meer-besmettingen-met-Britse-variant-van-coranavirus-in-Bergschenhoek-geen-verrassing-voor-GGD google translate

Nine students and teachers from the Willibrord School in Bergschenhoek have become infected with the British variant of the corona virus. This has been established by additional research by Erasmus MC and the GGD Rotterdam-Rijnmond.
Forty teachers, students and parents became infected in and around the school from the end of November during the outbreak. It was already known on Tuesday that five of them were infected with the British variant. On Wednesday that number increased to nine.

DJ-Samples are stored one week and then end up in medical garbage. So new testing was needed..

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 30 2020 at 1:26pm

Originally posted by pheasant pheasant wrote:

"These mutations, combined with the fact that B.1.1.7 acquired many changes simultaneously, suggest this new variant didn't arise by chance, but rather the mutations are giving it an advantage. They are helping it adapt to humans."

 What is that supposed to mean? That statement sounds ominous.



means viruses mutate....

Which has been the case for billions of years... Lol

With luck it should mutate into the common cold.....

With bad luck it goes the other way.....and cleans the planet ....lol

Take care all  πŸ˜·πŸ˜·πŸ˜‰

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote hachiban08 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 30 2020 at 2:16pm

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

I haven't seen anything about In-and-Out, Hachi.  But clearly someone travelled from an infected country that didn't quarantine or was caught.  Either way, its here.  And no matter where it is in the country, we need to remain vigilant.  


This is what I was referring to (The article hasn't been updated since Christmas Eve, so no idea if any customers have reported getting covid after going to In-N-Out), when the establishments first opened in CO, the lines were estimated to be 14 hours long though, so it was heavily frequented - even a family from California intended to go there on a quest to go to every In-N-Out this year:

https://www.denverpost.com/2020/12/24/in-n-out-burger-covid-outbreaks-colorado/

    

  Colorado’s two In-N-Out locations declared COVID-19 outbreaks as 80 employees test positive     


In-N-Out Burger’s two newly opened Colorado restaurants each have active COVID-19 outbreaks with 80 staff members having tested positive for the virus between the two locations, according to state data.

The wildly popular fast-food chain debuted in the state on Nov. 20 with locations in Aurora and Colorado Springs; each now have coronavirus outbreaks among employees, according to the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment.

State health officials consider an outbreak to be two or more cases linked to the same location or event. Outbreaks are deemed to be active until four weeks have passed with no new cases.

The outbreak at the Aurora location was declared Dec. 17, with 20 staff members confirmed to have tested positive for the virus and another 16 employees listed as probable COVID-19 cases.

The Colorado Springs location’s outbreak was confirmed by the state Dec. 6. There have been 60 positive employee cases at the El Paso County site, with another nine suspected cases among staff members.

The state has not linked any customers to either outbreak.

Both restaurants remain open, and state health officials generally do not require restaurants or other retail locations with outbreaks to close.

Denny Warnick, In-N-Out’s vice president of operations, acknowledged the “concerning number of Colorado associates who have tested positive for COVID-19” in a statement, adding, “Nothing is more important to us than the health and safety of our customers and associates.”

All employees who tested positive and those who had close contact with them “have been excluded from the workplace,” Warinck said.

“We continue to work closely with our public health agencies and have confirmed the appropriate steps to help protect our communities,” he said. “These steps include: limiting staff to the minimum number necessary to serve our customers, using staff ‘cohorts’ to limit possible exposure, and limiting dining room access to takeout orders only while ensuring appropriate physical distancing.”

Since opening to much fanfare in Colorado last month, each location has experienced long lines. That mania has persisted; the drive-thru line this past Saturday in Aurora was still more than three hours long. Neither of the fast-food chain’s Colorado locations has active indoor dining due to the state’s COVID-19 regulations.

           



Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hachiban08 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 30 2020 at 2:26pm

Update as of 3 pm: San Diego County, male aged 30, no known travel, and they suspect it is possibly present in others in the region - ABC 7 Los Angeles


It's down in Southern California now (from other news articles, they provided no other info on the patient that contracted it):



https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article248181610.html

                New UK COVID strain confirmed in Southern California      

A mutated strain of the coronavirus thought to have originated in the United Kingdom has been confirmed in Southern California, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday during a conversation with Dr. Anthony Fauci.

 

“Just an hour or so ago, we were informed that this new variant, new strain....has been identified here in the state of California, in Southern California,” Newsom said.

 

The first case of the variant in the U.S. was identified Tuesday in Colorado. This strain of the virus is more easily transmitted between persons, but it does not make people more sick or more likely to die than the normal version of the virus, Fauci said. 

Ultimately, Fauci said he’s not surprised to see a case of the mutant strain in California. 

 

“I don’t think that the Californians should feel this is something odd,” he said. “This is something that’s expected.” 


“It looks pretty clear from the UK group that in fact the transmissibility of this mutant is more efficient than the transmissibility of the standard virus we’ve been dealing with up to now,” Fauci said.

 

“There’s no indication at all that it increases the virulency, the ability to make you sick or kill you.”


Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 31 2020 at 12:20am

-Statistics may give an indication of spread of new-more infectious-variants. If they are 50/55% more infectious the number of new cases could increase-looking at this months average of over 600.000 new cases (wich may include already a lot of variants) we could face close to 1 million cases per day in january. This will increase the burder for (hospital)care. The UK variant does not bring more severe disease-still increasing numbers to above care capacity does mean more severe cases and deaths (both Covid19 and non Covid19). 

Also statistics may give an indication on changes in age groups, gender. There will be new variants. The UK variant is most known (and could be most spread). Vaccinations may be able to get a grip on the variants as well. 

-[url]https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-variant-in-south-africa-sparks-fear-of-faster-spread-possible-reinfection-11609358056[/url] or https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-variant-in-south-africa-sparks-fear-of-faster-spread-possible-reinfection-11609358056 (paywalled info that should be public !!!) 

DJ-It is hard to get good realistic info. Pandemic info should be public-and NOT for profit behind paywalls (and then sometimes turn out to be "no-news"). Main stream media have a public function to inform the general media. 

[url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/23/south-african-covid-19-variant-may-be-more-effective-at-spreading[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/23/south-african-covid-19-variant-may-be-more-effective-at-spreading ;

The South African variant of Covid-19, two cases of which have now been detected in the UK, is likely to be more transmissible, may hit young people harder, and may be slightly more resistant to vaccines, scientists in South Africa believe.

However, research is still continuing to confirm the threat posed by the variant, which does not appear to provoke more serious symptoms or require different treatment.

There are also some fears that the more numerous individual mutations of the South African variant may make it able to “re-infect” individuals who have already caught the virus and recovered.

Scientists in South Africa are still working “calmly and methodically” to fully understand the new variant, known as 501Y.V2. Data on the South African variant, which has swept across a swath of the country, has already been compared by scientists to the UK variant detected last week.

“Putting our data together with that in the UK, this [South African] variant is a bit more effective at spreading from person to person and that is not good. It means we have to get a bit better at stopping it,” said Dr Richard Lessells, one of the specialists leading research into the new variant in South Africa.

“Ours raises a few more concerns for a vaccine [than the UK variant] … Another worry is reinfection. We are currently doing the careful, methodical work in the laboratory to answer all the questions we have and that takes time.”

The mutations detected in new South African variant may allow the virus to better bind to and enter cells than previous variants, potentially easing transmission, scientists say.

-

Many cases are among young people, aged 15 to 25, but it is unclear if this is a consequence of the new variant or behaviour. A series of mass parties celebrating the end of the South African school year have been blamed for accelerating the spread of infections. A second wave had been predicted in South Africa but not for another two to six months.

 DJ (the WSJ-story may have been the same-but behind paywall...) It is summer in southern Africa. Less vaccinations, more infectious, increased risk of re-infections can make this SA variant (Variant 2020-12#2 ? V2020.12.2 ?)  become the global dominant virus. 

[url]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant.html[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant.html

In South Africa, another variant has emerged independently of the variant detected in the UK. This variant, originally detected in early October, shares some mutations with the variant detected in the UK. There have been cases caused by this variant outside of South Africa. This variant seems to spread more easily and quickly than other variants. Currently, there is no evidence that it causes more severe illness or increased risk of death.

In Nigeria, another distinct variant also has been detected.

DJ-The Nigerian variant news is already several days old. Three people in Nigeria (also) seem to show coinfection of the "old"and UK variant (???)

My impression is that the world is not reacting fast enough on the increased risks of both UK and SA variants. Monitoring has to be increased, NPI should slow down (at least somewhat) the spread. "Experts" seem to want proof-more then "just"statistics for virus spread in their region. This will give more spread and death...

On the SAV [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Spread[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Spread On 29 December, the strain had been detected in a visitor from South Africa to Japan,[16] and in one overseas traveller in Queensland, Australia.[17] On 30 December, the variant has been detected in Zambia.

DJ-The SA variant may be spreading in southern Africa

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hazelpad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 31 2020 at 3:30am

Our schools here in UK are to remain closed.  They say initial investigations indicates the new variant infects children easier, but havent seen data yet.

Also now saying studies say it is 56% more transmissible due to increased viral load in upper airways.  We all become superspreaders.  


Hz x 



New Covid variant linked to higher viral load in respiratory samples | Coronavirus | The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/30/new-covid-variant-linked-to-higher-viral-load-in-respiratory-samples


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 31 2020 at 7:15am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 02 2021 at 4:57pm

National Geographic: Why new coronavirus variants 'suddenly arose' in the U.K. and South Africa.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/12/why-new-coronavirus-variants-suddenly-arose-in-uk-and-south-africa/

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 02 2021 at 11:47pm

DJ-Carbon20 interesting article on how virologists think interventions (Remdesivir, antibody therapy) may influence the virus development...

I am more simple...If 1 million infections would see one major mutation of 1 or 2 segments, if 10 million infections would see larger mutations of 10+ segments, if 100 million infections could see mutations of 100+ segments-just as an example-could be part of new variants not simply be in the number of infections ? 

If the US-according to a CDC study-may have had already over 100 million people "in contact" with the virus (+infected with no or very mild symptoms) worldwide we may be over 1 billion infections ? 

Here in NL there was a claim 30 cats, 20 dogs did get Covid19 infection from their owners. Suppose that would be 1% of all worldwide pet infections that would see 3000 cats, 2000 dogs getting infected (and that is a low estimate). Worldwide the number of infected minks has to be in the tens of millions...

The SA variant did develop differently from the UK most likely because now it is summer in SA, winter in the UK. Different (age) groups having different activities causing different patterns of spread...

And the there must be several variants we know little off-Nigeria must have one..the cluster-5 in Denmark is supposed to have ended and should have been very limited, mink related..

Just as an increase of infections means there will be more variants, an increase of variants must push the variants further away from the old Covid19 (and vaccinations). 

Is this bad ? I think Covid19 is on its way to become more similar to "cold-corona virusses". But on its way there may be some variants that can do a lot more damage than the present variants...

There should be similarity with how other virusses evolved. Others on this forum have more knowledge of that...(a tree-model with new branches-a natural growth model, next to what human interventions have an impact on virusses.)


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2021 at 3:01pm

As i said in another thread.....

We are enhancing mutations by international travel....

In a few weeks we will see another mutation/varient/evolution.....

Call it what you will,

Trouble is it's already here.....

Lurking in some backwater waiting, waiting........


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2021 at 2:27am

carbon20-I hate to say you may be 100% correct...new variants must be around already-simply looking on statistics-the number of (real) cases could be over 1 billion by now...

DJ,

[url]https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2021/01/04/research-into-_explosive-outbreaks-in-antwerp-province/[/url] or https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2021/01/04/research-into-_explosive-outbreaks-in-antwerp-province/ ;

The Mayor of Wuustwezel speaks of an abnormal increase in the number of cases: up 60% in seven days, while his counterpart in Lier points to outbreaks in three care homes and more serious cases than the town is used to.

Tests are being carried out to find out whether the big outbreak in a large care home in Mol, where 26 residents have died, is also linked to a new, and possibly more transmissible variant.

-

There is speculation the D614G mutation is in play.  This variant first appeared at the start of 2020 and became dominant from the summer onwards.  It’s being investigated whether it is more transmissible. This variant is not the same as the variant detected in the UK.

DJ-Maybe there is no new variant at all-just a sharp increase-maybe related to the timing of Christmas/New Year. A remark; the area is not far from the Dutch border area where there was a lot of infected minks... 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2021 at 12:11pm

From Flutrackers:

med-Rxiv - SARS−CoV−2 Variant Under Investigation 202012/01 has more than twofold replicative advantage


hat tip to Michael Coston for the link


SARS−CoV−2 Variant Under Investigation 202012/01 has more than twofold replicative advantage

Posted January 04, 2021.

View ORCID ProfileFrederic Grabowski, Grzegorz Preibisch, View ORCID ProfileMarek Kochanczyk, View ORCID ProfileTomasz Lipniacki
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.28.20248906
This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.Abstract


The novel SARS−CoV−2 Variant Under Investigation VUI−202012/01 (also known as B.1.1.7), first collected on September 20, 2020, in Kent, is a rapidly growing lineage that in the first half of December 2020 constitutes more than 1/3 of all SARS−CoV−2 genomes sequenced in England. Based on GISAID data we have shown nearly exponential growth of the VUI−202012/01 to non−VUI−202012/01 genomes ratio in the five-week period since October 19 till November 22, 2020, with weekly growth rate of 2.31 [95% CI: 2.08−2.57]. Assuming the serial interval of 6.73 days we estimated the replicative advantage of VUI−202012/01 lineage as 2.31^(6.73/7) = 2.24 [95% CI: 2.03−2.48]. Such significant replicative advantage and the fact that London serves as major international transportation hub suggest that the VUI−202012/01 strain will likely become globally dominant, hindering containment of the COVID−19 epidemics prior to massive vaccinations.
Competing Interest Statement


The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement


This study was supported by the National Science Centre (Poland) grant 2018/29/B/NZ2/00668.
"Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2021 at 4:00pm

Our government sayis it is between 40% and 70% more contagious.  The panic our government is in and the massive lockdowns underway say they are lying.

This is a much more believable figure.  Thank you, Josh and Andy!


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2021 at 5:15pm

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

Our government sayis it is between 40% and 70% more contagious.  The panic our government is in and the massive lockdowns underway say they are lying.

This is a much more believable figure.  Thank you, Josh and Andy!

To be clear, the article is saying the UK variant is not 40-70% more transmissible, but 231% more, yes?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2021 at 2:29am

AndyPOW-thanks for that terrible finding...

DJ-I am not an expert at all-just trying "to follow the story", my English is far from perfect- Assuming the serial interval of 6.73 days we estimated the replicative advantage of VUI−202012/01 lineage as 2.31^(6.73/7) = 2.24 [95% CI: 2.03−2.48].

could this mean "advantage" as an "extra" on a R.0 of allready around 1 ?????

-When I look at the (late) reaction of a very strict lockdown till maybe end of february-by a conservative UK government tending close to denial-the R0 must be "alarming".

Also basic statistics indicate the R0 must be higher-UK dealing with extreme numbers even with a lockdown in most of the UK during long enough to bring numbers down...much of Europe also moving towards stricter rules...

DJ-Basic logics again-the more cases the more mutation-risks. If (again "IF" !!!) the R0 is that high there will not only be a lot more cases-it will also increase the number of new "variants"...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number without intervention the "old" Covid19 would see an R0 of 3.28 and 5.7. NPI/lockdowns were meant-and succesfull in lots of places-to get the R0 <1 during summer...If new variants would see R0 close to 8 you are getting to the very infectious diseases...

More aerosol spread would make the situation more alarming...

DJ-Again I am NOT an expert !!!

Another note-this Covid19 may be the most widespread "new" virus we have seen in recent history. The "good thing" on flu is a lot of people did once have the flu or are getting vaccinated-there is some immunity limiting spread. 

Capacity to do the needed sequencing may not be there-has to get started (including training of staff able to do that kind of research, software to analyze the data) -is my guess/impression...Since we have been in this pandemic around one year that capacity should have had priority-it did not get that urgency in most places...

There will be a dramatic increase of new cases worldwide-there also will be a dramatic increase of new variants worldwide...(DJ-My guess is there may not be "the luxery" of one dominant variant-we may face a whole bunch of changing variants making this pandemic even more complex...

Again I hope I am talking non-sense, I am NOT an expert, just trying to make some sense...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2021 at 6:40am

Yes.

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DJ [url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jan/05/coronavirus-live-news-england-to-enter-third-lockdown-as-new-york-detects-first-case-of-new-uk-strain[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jan/05/coronavirus-live-news-england-to-enter-third-lockdown-as-new-york-detects-first-case-of-new-uk-strain ;

The new coronavirus variant discovered in Britain could become a pandemic within a pandemic, Switzerland’s infection control chief said on Tuesday.

Switzerland, where daily case numbers are at a high level, has found the mutation in 28 samples - all people who arrived from Britain, or people with whom they had been in contact, AFP reports.

“This new variant could behave like a new pandemic within the pandemic,” Virginie Masserey, head of the health ministry’s infection control department, told journalists in the capital Bern.

“That is to say it could spread exponentially and, indeed, add a new wave to the existing wave.

“That’s why it is very important to really respect the measures that are recommended, to really reduce the number of infections.”

The new variant has been found in seven of the 26 Swiss cantons, including Zurich, Geneva and Bern.

“These mutant strains are now present in Switzerland and, according to scientific experts, they are much more infectious,” said Rudolf Hauri, president of the Association of Cantonal Doctors.

“Given that in Switzerland, the activity or the spread of the virus has been far too high for several weeks... we must absolutely try to delay the increased spread of this strain.”

If the new variant could not be controlled, tighter restrictions would be necessary, said Masserey.

The UK has recorded a new record for the number of coronavirus cases with a further 60,916 lab-confirmed cases as of 9am on Tuesday - the highest daily total reported so far. It brings the total number of cases in the UK to 2,774,479.

The government said a further 830 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 as of Tuesday, bringing the UK total to 76,305.

Separate figures published by the UK’s statistics agencies for deaths where Covid-19 has been mentioned on the death certificate, together with additional data on deaths that have occurred in recent days, show there have now been 92,000 deaths involving Covid-19 in the UK.

Yvonne Doyle, medical director for Public Health England, said:

“The rapid rise in cases is highly concerning and will sadly mean yet more pressure on our health services in the depths of winter.

An estimated 1 in 50 people in private households in England had Covid-19 between December 27 and January 2, the Office for National Statistics said.

Just some items...still there is also some positive news; [url]https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/05/putin-germanys-merkel-discuss-joint-coronavirus-vaccine-production-a72544[/url] or https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/05/putin-germanys-merkel-discuss-joint-coronavirus-vaccine-production-a72544  ;

Putin and Merkel discussed cooperation in the fight against Covid-19 “with an emphasis on potential prospects for the joint production of vaccines,” according to a statement on the Kremlin’s website.

The talks follow Putin’s admission last year that domestic equipment shortages could delay Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine from entering mass production. Reports also said Russia was struggling with production capacity issues and problems with scalability and quality control.

Alexander Gintsburg, the director of the state-run Gamaleya research center that developed Sputnik, on Tuesday said that over 1 million people in Russia have received the jab so far.

DJ The only way out of this crisis is international cooperation...

South Africa;

[url]https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/nehawu-says-healthcare-workers-in-gauteng-are-under-siege/[/url] or https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/nehawu-says-healthcare-workers-in-gauteng-are-under-siege/ ;

The National Education, Health and Allied Workers’ Union (Nehawu) says healthcare workers in Gauteng are under siege and are struggling to treat the soaring levels of COVID-19 patients in the province.

Nehawu is concerned that it could get worse as more residents return to Gauteng after spending the holiday period at the coast or at rural homes.

Medical experts say the infection rate is likely to climb in the coming weeks and will put more pressure on already strained healthcare facilities.

Gauteng is bracing itself for a spike in COVID-19 infections and is stepping up efforts to curb the spread. They have targeted roadblocks and tollgates to screen and test those returning to the province.

-

Healthcare facilities in the province are already overburdened. Trade union Nehawu says the country’s largest hospital, the Chris Hani Baragwanath hospital in Soweto, is like a death trap for healthcare workers.

Nehawu’s Gauteng Co-ordinator, Clement Marule, expects the situation to get worse because of the lack of essential Personal Protective Equipment to protect their members.

The Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital is overwhelmed. Majority of the workers who are testing positive are nurses, that’s our worry. In ward 20, we are told, we lost one nurse this morning. In the same ward, 19 workers tested positive. In stores, another 19 tested positive. We are informed that most of the wards, they are not provided with the necessary PPE. Our concern is that the members are not coping and they are in very serious distress. We hope the premier will step up the game because we are under siege as Gauteng.”

DJ One of the worst scenario's is running out of HCW because "they all get infected" ...Rich infected people may try to go abroad for help-even further spreading the virus.  

[url]https://africacdc.org/covid-19/[/url] or https://africacdc.org/covid-19/ allthough very poor statistics there are some indication the SA-variant is already spreading in southern Africa..

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