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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

new variants

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2021 at 2:39am

DJ-The SA variant;

-may infect more younger age groups

-may evade (some) vaccines

-may spread even faster then the UK variant

Some remarks; It is summer in southern Africa-so more social (outdoor) activity, summer parties for some. But due to poverty people have to make a living. Less testing and reporting means the virus will spread further. Also it could be much of Africa did have lower numbers then other parts of the world-the population may be more vulnarable...

There is still not known about this variant. Other variants can make the picture even less clear...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/06/dutch-girl-17-detained-switzerland-trying-fly-covid-infection[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/06/dutch-girl-17-detained-switzerland-trying-fly-covid-infection (SA-variant ?)

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/why-new-mutant-covid-strain-ravaging-south-africa-has-scientists-extremely-worried[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/why-new-mutant-covid-strain-ravaging-south-africa-has-scientists-extremely-worried 

DJ-The UK variant may have 10x more viral part shedding...Erasmus UMC/Rotterdam University Marianne Koopmans (virologist) is saying.  (I did find another link from her [url]https://www.erasmusmc.nl/en/research/departments/viroscience/articles/marion-lancet-sarscov2-outbreaks-on-mink-farms[/url] or https://www.erasmusmc.nl/en/research/departments/viroscience/articles/marion-lancet-sarscov2-outbreaks-on-mink-farms not (yet) on study on the UK variant..)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2021 at 4:48am

From [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/903159-denmark-statens-serum-institute-ssi-estimate-of-covid-variant-b-1-1-7-growth[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/903159-denmark-statens-serum-institute-ssi-estimate-of-covid-variant-b-1-1-7-growth ;

As community immunity to the virus grows - either through natural infection or vaccination - the more evolutionary pressure there is for the virus to reinvent itself in order to survive. It's why influenza returns every year, despite acquired immunity and vaccines.


Suddenly, we find ourselves in a race against two variants (and likely more on the way) that could seriously change the COVID-19 pandemic's dynamics.

  • B.1.1.7 - first discovered in the UK - and now detected in more than 40 countries, appears to be the most immediate threat. It has successfully become the dominant strain in most of the UK, and - unless something more competitive emerges - appears on track to become the dominant strain globally in 2021.
  • 501Y.V2 - which was first identified in South Africa - has already been detected in 6 other nations (see WHO Epidemiological Report - 5 Jan). Like B.1.1.7 it is believed to have a transmissibility advantage over older strains, and some preliminary research suggests it's E484K mutation may render it less susceptible to the current crop of vaccines.

While it is too soon to say how much of an impact it might have, other variants with the E484K mutation have turned up recently in Argentina and Brazil. The good news is most variants will prove to be evolutionary failures, or will provide no functional advantage to the virus.


But with every new infection, the virus is essentially rolling the genetic dice. And the more opportunities is is given, the better the odds are that it will roll the right combination to reinvent itself again.

Which is why reducing the spread of SARS-Cov-2 - and in particular, the more transmissible variants - is viewed as critical right now. A 70% transmissibility advantage - as estimated with the B.1.1.7 variant - is enough to turn it into the dominant strain anywhere it is introduced in a matter of weeks.

-

The prevalence of the English virus variant, B.1.1.7, is still at a low level in Denmark. SSI expects that the variant will become more widespread in the near future, and therefore it is recommended that further measures be introduced to keep the spread of covid-19 in Denmark under control.

“It has been assessed on the basis of samples from the genome genome sequencing that the infection from the English variant is 72 per cent. higher than the average of the other virus variants in Denmark. At the same time, it has been seen in England that the contact number for the new virus variant is 1.5 times higher compared to other variants.

This means that the new variant can already in 40-50 days make up half of all cases of infection in Denmark ” - Doctor Camilla Holten Møller, general manager of the expert group

The growth rate of the English virus variant cluster B.1.1.7 is estimated in a new note from the expert group for mathematical modeling of covid-19 , led by SSI

Although the overall level of infection and contact numbers currently appear to be declining, SSI expects the infection to rise again anyway. This is because as the English variant spreads, the infection will increase exponentially. It shows calculations made by the expert group .

Scenarios for development in Denmark

If the current contact number of 0.96 does not change, the number of daily infections is expected to exceed 4,000 by the end of February.

If, on the other hand, it is possible to lower the contact number to 0.8 for the old variants, the infection can be kept under control for a longer period, after which it will increase again.

If the increase in infection is to be completely curbed, however, it is necessary to reduce the contact number for the old variants to 0.7 (corresponding to 1.05 for the English variant). It is against this background that SSI recommends further restrictions and measures. We managed to lower the contact number to approximately that level during the closure in March and April 2020.

-

Although there are some officials and researchers worried that the 501Y.V2 variant may be the bigger threat, for now it appears to be lagging behind B.1.1.7 in spreading globally.

That could change, of course, depending on how well the current vaccines work against one (or hopefully both) of these variants. And any that follow.


While I remain cautiously optimistic, we should be prepared for a long haul, as SARS-CoV-2 is unlikely to go quietly into the night.


https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2021/...itute-ssi.html

DJ-Problem is testing for old variant is still far from 100%, the new variants may be spreading under the radar...only fast strict action can decrease the risks..

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2021 at 7:31am

Via flutrackers; [url]https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/south-africa-covid-variant-appears-to-obviate-antibody-drugs-dr-scott-gottlieb-says.html[/url] or https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/south-africa-covid-variant-appears-to-obviate-antibody-drugs-dr-scott-gottlieb-says.html

  • “The South Africa variant is very concerning right now because it does appear that it may obviate some of our medical countermeasures, particularly the antibody drugs,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb said.
  • The South African variant is also known as 501.V2, and in mid-December officials reported that 501.V2 had been largely replacing other strains of the coronavirus as early as November.
  • Dr. Scott Gottlieb warned that vaccinating Americans against Covid is more critical than ever, especially as the new South Africa variant appears to inhibit antibody drugs.  
    “The South Africa variant is very concerning right now because it does appear that it may obviate some of our medical countermeasures, particularly the antibody drugs,” said the former FDA chief in the Trump administration in an interview on CNBC’s “The News with Shepard Smith” on Tuesday evening. “Right now that strain does appear to be prevalent in South America and Brazil, the two parts of the world, right now, that are in their summer, but also experiencing a very dense epidemic, and that’s concerning. 

    The South African variant is also known as 501.V2, and in mid-December officials reported that 501.V2 had been largely replacing other strains of the coronavirus as early as November. South Africa has already sustained the more than 1.1 million COVID-19 cases and more than 30,000 deaths, the most on the African continent. 

DJ-Obviate is evade, avert. I wonder if the above info is correct-the SA variant "prevalent" (dominant) in South America and Brazil". There is discussion on if the UK or SA variant will be most seen within 5 to 8 weeks worldwide. I (DJ) tended believe the SA-v would get dominant-now I think a "new" variant may even push the old, UK, SA (and some other) variants aside. 

Gottlieb cited experimental evidence from Bloom Lab, and explained 501.V2  does appear to partially escape prior immunity. It means that some of the antibodies people produce when they get infected with Covid, as well as the antibody drugs, may not be quite as effective.

“The new variant has mutated a part of the spike protein that our antibodies bind to, to try to clear the virus itself, so this is concerning,” Gottlieb said. “Now, the vaccine can become a backstop against these variants really getting more of a foothold here in the United States, but we need to quicken the pace of vaccination.”

DJ-In short the SA variant seems to be able to reinfect...even overcome/evade vaccination...

Newer variants will most likely develop multible ways-some still will be stopped by vaccination, earlier infection, others may be seen by all of us as a "new virus"...My hope is these variants-on the long run-will develop towards a "common cold virus"...

(I hesitate on another scenario; multiple variants "jumping up and down on mammals"-a SF-dark-scenario...)

-In NL a second school in the Rotterdam area has a cluster of UK-variant Covid-at least 30 cases...(DJ-Since NL also has links with South Africa both the UK and SA variants must be spreading...) NL most likely will become the 19th country with over 1 million cases end of this month. We only have 17,5 million in population...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2021 at 8:44am

The article is probably correct, but clearly passed on from one source to another without double checking or editing.  

How do I know this?  They are all making the same gramatical error:  "Obviate" means "remove the need for", not "avoid".  "The parquet flooring obviates the need for a carpet." for example, or "The death of the dog obviates the need for a leash."   As it stands, the comment by  Dr Gottleib suggests the disease either cures itself, or is so rapidly fatal as to be untreatable.  I  think these meanings are entirely unintended by the good Doctor.  

The word the articles should be using is evade:  “The South Africa variant is very concerning right now because it does appear that it may evade some of our medical countermeasures, particularly the antibody drugs,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb should have said.  [That would mean the disease was far harder to treat.]

I am utterly certain it is what he meant.

Believers don't need proof and sceptics won't accept proof.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2021 at 9:03am

My appologies:  I should have said: "Everyone just quoted it verbatim, except our own Dutch Josh."

You sometimes wonder 'aloud' if your English is up to the job, Josh.  Don't! 

It may be your second language, DJ, but you clearly speak it better tham many "learned" folks for whom it is their first language. 

This rather proves the point for you.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2021 at 10:25am

Techno-thanks ! In a newer article the use "evade" ;

“It really is a race against time trying to get more vaccine into people’s arms before these new variants become more prevalent here in the United States,” said Gottlieb.

If the 501.V2 strain can evade antibodies, then it will evade all antibodies that can bind to the spike protein of the original coronavirus strains. This includes neutralizing antibodies that the immune system produces in response to the SARS-CoV-2 infection, the neutralizing antibodies used in monoclonal drug therapies like the drug President Trump took during his bout with COVID-19, and the neutralizing antibodies that vaccines will elicit.

It’s unclear how effective vaccines will be against the South African strain, as more research will be required. Drugmakers can adapt the vaccines to address the new 501.V2 spike, but that will take some time. Even if current vaccines and antibody drugs have a lower efficacy against 501.V2, they could still provide some protection.

“The mutations that most reduce antibody binding usually occur at just a few sites in the [receptor-binding domain (RBD)]’s receptor binding motif,” Bloom Lab’s abstract reads. “The most important site is E484, where neutralization by some sera is reduced >10-fold by several mutations, including one in emerging viral lineages in South Africa and Brazil. Going forward, these serum escape maps can inform surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 evolution.”

DJ [url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.31.425021v1[/url] or https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.31.425021v1 (my non-expert reaction, vaccinations can not help us for now, NPI can...)

UK variant (In NL at least 50 cases so far-must be spreading...most in Amsterdam, Rotterdam region-two largest cities..)

[url]https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/211933/neil-ferguson-uks-covid-situation-bleak/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter[/url] or https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/211933/neil-ferguson-uks-covid-situation-bleak/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter ;

The team published a landmark report in March which estimated that suppression measures - such as social distancing - would be needed until a vaccine became available otherwise infections would rebound quickly.

Professor Ferguson said: "We always anticipated back in February and March, with the initial analysis of how this virus spread, that while lockdown measures and social distancing could be effective as we’d seen in Italy and China, they only work for as long as they are in force, and if you relax those measures there comes a critical point where transmission starts resurging and that’s exactly what we saw across Europe in the autumn." 

-

Speaking about the long-term outlook for the pandemic, Professor Ferguson said: "Looking forward we’re going to be living with coronavirus indefinitely, we’re never going to eliminate it from the human population, it will evolve, and we may need to regularly update our vaccines."

DJ-Vaccination in most countries only is getting started...it may take months before enough people did get their vaccines to see some effect. Variations seem to show up ever faster...(Not even thinking of any other illness showing up-or the mental healthcrisis evolving...foodcrisis...) Maybe "vaccinating in a bubble" all those vaccinated can move into a safe zone-might work to get some grip. It may be to early for such drastic and dramatic ideas...(those outside the bubble-maybe some in a 'waiting zone'-others may have to find a way to survive....very dark scenario...again-hope I'm wrong...we will not end up there within a year...

UK numbers today are shocking 62,322 new cases, 1041 deaths in just one day...UK population just over 68 million-so almost 0,1% tested positive in a single day...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hazelpad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 07 2021 at 9:48am

You are right it is terrible here in UK  just now.  Lot of myrelatives and friends work in NHS frontline.  Many vaccinated 3 weeks ago so are working flat out for patients.  

Coronavirus tracked: UK now has more new Covid cases per capita than any other country in the world

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/covid-cases-uk-latest-data-b1782693.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 07 2021 at 12:41pm

In NL 1 to 5% of all new cases are most likely the UK variant-with the 5% in Amsterdam/Rotterdam area. Still the idea is we have had the peak in hospital cases....don't experts follow the news....[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/07/netherlands-reports-sharp-36-jump-coronavirus-infections[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/07/netherlands-reports-sharp-36-jump-coronavirus-infections

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 08 2021 at 11:28pm

DJ The explosion of cases in the US can be largely explained by massive flying-over 115 million people during Christmas and New Year. But of course the US did everything they could to invite and unite all kind of variants from all over the globe. Due to privacy-rules the virus-flying for free-can spread in the US undetected...But most of the explosion of cases will have to do with no masks, travel around the globe...

[url]https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/white-house-covid-task-force-warns-of-possible-new-usa-variant-driving-spread.html[/url] or https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/white-house-covid-task-force-warns-of-possible-new-usa-variant-driving-spread.html ;

The CDC issued a statement saying it has not seen the emergence of a highly contagious new U.S. variant of the coronavirus, unlike variants in the U.K. and South Africa. It noted, however, that there are probably many variants emerging across the globe.

DJ-Of course the reality is the CDC has hardly capacity to find the variants the US is welcoming with open doors...The White House coronavirus task force said there could be a new variant of the virus that evolved in the U.S. and is driving spread, according to a document obtained by NBC News.

DJ-Would it not be nice if there was a group trying to find the facts by now ? The UK reported the UK variant a month ago...."could be" ? @#%#$!#$ do your job-find it-by now !!!! The US did find a few UK variants...I think the Task Force is correct in thinking there "may be variants" spreading around in the US-but act !!!

"The house is on fire, bet let us finish diner" is a new normal ???

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/903434-fda-issues-alert-regarding-sars-cov-2-viral-mutation-to-health-care-providers-and-clinical-laboratory-staff[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/903434-fda-issues-alert-regarding-sars-cov-2-viral-mutation-to-health-care-providers-and-clinical-laboratory-staffThe U.S. Food and Drug Administration is alerting clinical laboratory staff and health care providers that the FDA is monitoring the potential impact of viral mutations, including an emerging variant from the United Kingdom known as the B.1.1.7 variant, on authorized SARS-CoV-2 molecular tests, and that false negative results can occur with any molecular test for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 if a mutation occurs in the part of the virus’s genome assessed by that test.

DJ-The only good thing of this text is that it is down to the basics....variants may evade testing...

-Here in NL emergency daycare for children (in vulnarable position or parent(s) with essential jobs) have to accept children "with a cold"-ministry of education ruled. Some centers were refusing those children out of fear for the UK variant spreading in NL. As a result even less staff will be available...Our "Outbreak Management Team" (That OMT is supposed to have the best experts in the country...) admitted it was wrong to claim last summer 12-18 year old did not need social distancing "because the virus is only a risk for older age groups"....

-Also a reminder [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Banana[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_BananaThe Blue Banana (also known as the European Megalopolis or the Liverpool–Milan Axis) is a discontinuous corridor of urbanization spreading over Western and Central Europe, with a population of around 111 million

DJ-So far most of the UK variants-spread is in Amsterdam/Rotterdam area for NL. Urban regions are perfect for virus spread. 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/new-zealand-ad/902884-new-zealand-6-rapidly-spreading-uk-virus-strain-b-1-1-7-covid-19-coronavirus-cases-january-2-2021#post902885[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/new-zealand-ad/902884-new-zealand-6-rapidly-spreading-uk-virus-strain-b-1-1-7-covid-19-coronavirus-cases-january-2-2021#post902885 DJ Australia, New Zealand, China-Bejing Area are on "high alert" for the new variants...since in Taiwan a New Zealand pilot of a cargoplane managed to spread the UK variant-it has to be clear even stricter controls on travel is needed...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2021 at 2:30am

This pandemic is no joke and has only just started.

1 the virus mutates and is more infectious and will if it hasn't already, mutated around the vaccines

2 the hospital system will collapse - is collapsing

3 the virus will become deadlier - SARS was 10% fatality rate


People not wearing masks is only making it worse - wear a mask or die - avoid other people or die

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2021 at 8:55am

[url]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-variant/twenty-one-people-have-tested-positive-for-uk-variant-of-covid-in-marseille-idUSKBN29E0LG?feedType=mktg&feedName=healthNews&WT.mc_id=Partner-Google[/url] or https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-variant/twenty-one-people-have-tested-positive-for-uk-variant-of-covid-in-marseille-idUSKBN29E0LG?feedType=mktg&feedName=healthNews&WT.mc_id=Partner-Google ;

PARIS (Reuters) - Twenty-one people in the southern French city of Marseille have tested positive for the new variant of COVID initially found in England, the Marseille police department said on Saturday.

The police department added that the new cases of the variant had been discovered within a family cluster.

DJ In NL cases are decreasing-the stricter lockdown seems to have some effect. But the rules should result in lower number of cases...there is growing fear "variants" are spreading in NL. 

-New variant in Argentina [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/903510-argentina-pais-report-on-covid-e484k-variant-in-south-america[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/903510-argentina-pais-report-on-covid-e484k-variant-in-south-america

which carries one of the mutations (E484K in the spike protein) also found in the 501Y.V2 variant which was first picked up in South Africa.


This E484K mutation has been linked to reduced antibody recognition, which may decrease immune protection acquired from prior infection or vaccination.

-Maybe the SA variant mutating further in South America ? 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2021 at 2:10pm

It's mutating  everyday with every new person it infects........

All air travel should cease, 

 international  travel should  cease.......NOW......

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 10 2021 at 8:20am

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/statu...19003278389249

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/0...ction-tracker/

https://watermark.silverchair.com/ci...1MeBf0V_mcQ9QA


SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (using the Roche anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM/IgG assay detecting antibodies targeting viral nucleocapsid ‘N’ antigen) were detectable on 6 occasions between the 4th June 2020 and 13th November 2020 with no evidence of antibody waning seen.
and yet this case was reinfected with the new B117 variant. Should imagine this is very bad news for the immunisation program - with the current vaccine. The vaccine program will remove the old - less virulent - strain from the circulating program and lead to a higher percentage of the B117 variant - or will it just ensure fewer people are infected and end up in hospital. Either way - people who have been vaccinated should still be vulnerable to the new variant.
“The only security we have is our ability to adapt."


 
  • kiwibird
    kiwibird commented
    Today, 07:55 AM
    We have detected a confirmed case of reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 with the second episode due to
    the ‘new variant’ VOC-202012/01 of lineage B.1.1.7. The initial infection occurred in the first wave of
    the pandemic in the UK and was a mild illness. 8 months later, during the second wave of the
    pandemic in the UK reinfection with the ‘new variant’ VOC-202012/01 was confirmed and caused a
    critical illness.

  • kiwibird
    kiwibird commented
    Today, 07:56 AM
    Confirmed Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 Variant VOC-202012/01
    David Harrington, Beatrix Kele, Spiro Pereira, Xose Couto-Parada, Anna Riddell, Suzanne
    Forbes, Hamish Dobbie, Teresa Cutino-Moguel
    Barts Health NHS Trust
    London, UNITED KINGDOM
    Corresponding author:
    David Harrington

    Thank you to the authors of this paper.
"Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 10 2021 at 8:31am

From an abundance of caution it should considered that not only will the vaccine suppress the original strain and thereby enhance the new variant's spread, but may also enhance the severity of a second infection.  This is not an unknown risk, it happened with SARS.

"Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 10 2021 at 9:55am

China ; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/903536-china-are-frozen-covid-19-coronavirus-imports-from-argentina-and-brazil-with-variant-e484k-responsible-for-new-spread-can-china-stop-it-this-time[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/903536-china-are-frozen-covid-19-coronavirus-imports-from-argentina-and-brazil-with-variant-e484k-responsible-for-new-spread-can-china-stop-it-this-time 

DJ-AndyPOW-would NOT vaccinating become a better choice-or wait for vaccines able to deal with more variants ?  It is getting very confusing by now...People that had a Old variant infection get more severe outcome from new variants...

Dr.John Campbell would love the idea people that did get SARS-1 in 2003 still have (some) immunity against Covid19/SARS-2. That idea is incorrect ? Is there more then one case- could it be that case (old variant-severe ill with new UK variant) is not what would become the norm ? 

Besides from reinfections and vaccines maybe less effective-variants may also escape (old) testing methods...  So to keep track several tests could be needed ? 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 10 2021 at 11:03am

There are no truly good options, only less bad ones.

Both the UK and original strains of the disease are covered by the vaccine.  The South African variant (b117 according to one of the articles quoted - I am unsure this is correct.) is an unknown quantity for the vaccine.

In theory, getting the vaccine therefore prevents infection two thirds of the time.  The South African variant is no more deadly, but seems to be more deadly if you have had the original strain or the UK strain already.  So, whereas the vaccine may not protect you from catching it, it may still protect against a nastier disease developing from it - as you would not have had the original disease and therfore would have taken no damage from it; said damage is probably the main reason for the worse outcomes the second time around.  (Long covid could render any, otherwise mild disease, deadly.)

Whoever KiwiBird is, they fail to understand the full list of possible outcomes.  This is common for twitter tweeters (just look at the Trump twitter thing!)  and the news channel came to no such conclusions.

I could not get the last link to function.

There are no certanties here, this is a new virus (there are a lot of 'may's in my reply for good reason).  But the ballance of risk falls in favour of having the vaccine.  However, sensible people would not completely rely upon it, as there is still a BIG roll for social distancing and quarrantine methods.  

Believers don't need proof and sceptics won't accept proof.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 10 2021 at 12:21pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 10 2021 at 12:29pm

White House warns of possible new “United States” variant of COVID-19 (NBC) 

https://news.yahoo.com/white-house-covid-19-task-211727231.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 10 2021 at 12:31pm

New #Nigeria #Coronavirus #Variant P681H “has the 501 mutation”

A new variant of the coronavirus, P681H, has been identified, this time in Nigeria, with a separate lineage from the variants found in the UK and in South Africa, John Nkengasong, head of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), said on Thursday.

“The one we are seeing in Nigeria, and this is based on very limited data yet, has the 501 mutation,” Nkengasong added, referring to the variant termed 501.V2 identified in South Africa and announced by public health officials there on Dec. 18.

https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/new-nigeria-coronavirus-variant-p681h-has-the-501-mutation/

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 10 2021 at 12:49pm

Techno the B117=the UK variant...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 thank you for trying to make some sense-as far as possible for now...bad news...

From the KSC  (thank you) Japan link ;

TOKYO -- A new variant of the virus behind COVID-19 has been detected in Japan, the country's Health Ministry announced on Sunday.

It was found in four people -- male and female, ranging from their teens to their 40s -- who arrived from Brazil. While there are similarities to strains first reported in the U.K. and South Africa, this particular type does not appear to have been spotted before.

This brings to 34 the number of confirmed infections from a variant strain in Japan. Of these, three are cases in which the person did not arrive from overseas, including two cases of the U.K. strain found on Sunday.

DJ-All over the world variant showing up-maybe coinfecting species/humans...creating new variants...with limited sequencing capacity...a nightmare !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 10 2021 at 7:53pm

https://nypost.com/2021/01/09/cdc-refutes-report-of-new-highly-contagious-covid-strain-in-us/

CDC refutes report of new highly contagious COVID-19 strain in US

By Eileen AJ ConnellyJanuary 9, 2021 | 11:46am | Updated

Enlarge Image

The CDC has refuted a report indicating that a new highly contagious COVID-19 strain is circulating.

The CDC has refuted a report indicating that a new highly contagious COVID-19 strain is circulating.Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

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There is no highly contagious new variant of the coronavirus in the US despite reports that a new strain of the deadly bug was circulating here.


Officials said reports that suggested a new mutation were based on speculative statements made by Dr. Deborah Birx of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, but are not accurate, the New York Times reported Saturday.


The rumor came from a meeting during which Birx discussed graphs that showed the sharp increase in the virus’ spread across the country. She theorized that a new, more transmissible variant originating in this country might explain the rapidly escalating number of cases, the way a highly-contagious new variant found in the UK did in Britain.


Her hypothesis made it into a weekly report sent to state governors, CNBC reported. “This acceleration suggests there may be a USA variant that has evolved here, in addition to the UK variant that is already spreading in our communities and may be 50% more transmissible,” the report said.


SEE ALSO 


Highly contagious UK variant of COVID-19 found in NY for first time

CDC officials did not agree with her assessment and asked to remove it from the report, but were unsuccessful, the Times said. Following news reports about the potential variant, the agency issued a formal statement refuting the theory. “To date, neither researchers nor analysts at CDC have seen the emergence of a particular variant in the United States,” spokesman Jason McDonald said.


He noted that all viruses evolve and there are likely many variants around the globe evolving simultaneously. “However, it could take weeks or months to identify if there is a single variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 fueling the surge in the United States similar to the surge in the United Kingdom.”


Dr. Birx could not immediately be reached for comment.


The UK variant, which has driven a surge there that is overwhelming hospitals, has been found in multiple states, including New York. The CDC estimates that it accounts for less than 0.5 percent of cases in the country so far.


Dr. Deborah Birx speaks during a White House Coronavirus Task Force briefing in November.

Dr. Deborah Birx speaks during a White House Coronavirus Task Force briefing in November.

Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

A second variant has been in the United States for three months and also accounts for fewer than 0.5 percent of cases, so it is unlikely to be more contagious than other variants, a CDC official told the Times

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 11 2021 at 8:46am

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/903633-china-ccdc-covid-19-variant-501y-v2-detected-in-airplane-pilot-%E2%80%94-guangdong-province-jan-6th-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/903633-china-ccdc-covid-19-variant-501y-v2-detected-in-airplane-pilot-%E2%80%94-guangdong-province-jan-6th-2021

A little over a year ago, China launched their own version of the U.S. CDC's MMWR, called the CCDC Weekly. It is published in English, and It's format is quite similar to the MMWR, including a `Notes From The Field' style report.


Below you'll find a `Notes From The Field' report describing China's first detection of the 501Y.V2 Covid variant, which carries the 501Y mutation, along with the E484K mutation, that has been making major inroads in South Africa.

Although not as well distributed internationally as the B.1.1.7 variant which first emerged in the UK, this variant is worrisome because it carries the E484K mutation, which has been has been tentatively linkedto reduced antibody recognition, which in turn may decrease immune protection acquired from prior infection or vaccination.


The patient is a 55 y.o. airline pilot from South Africa, who arrived at Guangzhou City from Singapore on the evening of December 8, 2020, and tested positive for COVID. He was transferred to a hospital for treatment and isolation. As of the time of the paper's publication (Jan 6th), he was still receiving treatment.

Genomic sequencing takes time, and there is often a backlog, so it was more than three weeks after admission that samples were sent to China's CDC for analysis. On January 5, 2021, the sample and virus isolates were sequenced and identified as being the 501Y.V2 variant.

For more on this potentially problematic E484K mutation, you may wish to revisit:

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2021/01/ccdc-weekly-covid-19-variant-501yv2.html

DJ So a pilot did bring the SA variant to China december 8-was tested at arrival-isolated when test was positive...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 12 2021 at 8:48am

DJ-Israel hard hit by UK variant [url]https://www.debka.com/covid-infection-rockets-to-9583-new-israel-cases-in-24-hours/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/covid-infection-rockets-to-9583-new-israel-cases-in-24-hours/

The ministry of health reports a record number of new coronavirus cases – 9,583 since Monday, the highest number since the pandemic’s outbreak last March. There were also a high 7,6pc positive tests out of 127,000. In hospital are 1,027 seriously ill patients, of whom 247 are on ventilators. The death toll has reached, 3,704.

Since last Friday, Israel has been on a stringent lockdown. The steep rise in contagion is attributed by a group of scientists at the Weitzman Institute to the growing prevalence of the highly transmissible “British mutant.” Altogether 504,269 active cases are currently registered in Israel.

DJ [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/903722-covid-19-south-africa-variant-could-evade-our-medicines-says-drug-company-about-antibody-drug-regeneron-january-12-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/903722-covid-19-south-africa-variant-could-evade-our-medicines-says-drug-company-about-antibody-drug-regeneron-january-12-2021

  • The Covid variant initially found in South Africa “could evade our medicines,” Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks told CNBC on Tuesday.
  • “The South African variant ... is the one of concern. It has more dramatic mutations to that spike protein,” Ricks said.
  • By contrast, Ricks said he was confident Lilly’s antibody drug would work against the strain initially found in the U.K.

more...


Covid variant found in South Africa ‘could evade’ Eli Lilly's antibody drug: CEO (cnbc.com)

-China [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/903724-china-national-government-official-called-for-a-reduction-in-unnecessary-travel-and-gatherings-in-an-effort-to-limit-the-spread-of-infections-january-12-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/903724-china-national-government-official-called-for-a-reduction-in-unnecessary-travel-and-gatherings-in-an-effort-to-limit-the-spread-of-infections-january-12-2021 and [url]https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3117299/covid-19-china-steps-government-planning-limit-lunar-new-year[/url] or https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3117299/covid-19-china-steps-government-planning-limit-lunar-new-year mix of variants and Chinese New Year could restart pandemic problems...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 12 2021 at 11:21am

DJ-In NL 2 to 5% of all infected have the UK variant-with around 140,000 cases 2800-7000 UK variants. Expected to become the dominant virus. So far 100 UK variant cases have been found...

This evening the PM an d Health Minister gave a pressconference; no mandatory quarantine, no stop in airtravel, no curfews...it is very limited given what is going on in the UK, Ireland, Israel (and in someways the US..NL has also a few SA variants-unclear what the numbers are there). 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/12/dutch-lockdown-extended-curfew-consideration-schools-open-early-pm-dont-travel[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/12/dutch-lockdown-extended-curfew-consideration-schools-open-early-pm-dont-travel

“This variant is now responsible for a small percentage of the infections, but it is expected that this will increase,” Health Minister Hugo de Jonge at the news event. “We have to slow down the spread of the British variant.” 

“My fear is that we will now end up in the same situation with the new variant, where the numbers explode. You cannot have such a dangerous virus here, which is why we are looking at extra measures,” Rutte stated.

“Vaccination is the trump card we have in our hands to get out of this misery,” De Jonge said.

No traveling until Spring

Rutte also stressed that members of the public should not travel for at least the next six to ten weeks. The government believes that each trip abroad increases the risk of more infections domestically. “Stay in the Netherlands until March. Do not book trips, unless it is due to enormous economic importance or serious family circumstances," he said.

-Also in other west European countries variants must be increasing...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/903710-russian-lymphoma-patient-acquired-18-covid-19-mutations-in-months-long-disease-study-finds#post903710[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/903710-russian-lymphoma-patient-acquired-18-covid-19-mutations-in-months-long-disease-study-finds#post903710 ; MOSCOW (Sputnik) - A Russian lymphoma patient with long-term COVID-19 has acquired 18 mutations of the virus in over four months duration of the disease, according to the preprint of a study published at virological.org.

-

"We report a genomic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 from a lymphoma patient with long-term COVID-19. This genome is characterized by an independent gain of 18 new mutations over more than 4 months of the disease. These include the S:Y453F and Δ69-70HV mutations (‘the ΔF combination’) which have formerly been associated with mink-related clusters," the preprint read.

The mutations developed in a 47-year-old female lymphoma patient, who goes by Patient S in the study. Patient S likely contracted the virus when she was on planned chemotherapy in a hospital...

-DJ Russia also has a lot mink-fur-farming...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2021 at 12:32pm

Two "new" US variants;  

One of the new strains, found in just one patient in Ohio, contains a mutation identical to the now-dominant variant in the U.K., researchers said, noting that it “likely arose in a virus strain already present in the United States.” However, the “Columbus strain,” which the researchers said in a press release has become dominant in the city, includes “three other gene mutations not previously seen together in SARS-CoV2.”

“This new Columbus strain has the same genetic backbone as earlier cases we’ve studied, but these three mutations represent a significant evolution,” Dr. Dan Jones, vice chair of the division of molecular pathology at Ohio State and lead author of the study, said in a statement. “We know this shift didn’t come from the U.K. or South African branches of the virus.”


DJ - One "variant" UK-like, the Columbus strain more new. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/895273-us-at-least-15-000-mink-dead-as-coronavirus-spreads-among-fur-farms-in-utah-wisconsin-michigan-oregon-at-least-12-mink-farms-infected-some-staff-infected-in-oregon-wild-mink-in-utah[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/895273-us-at-least-15-000-mink-dead-as-coronavirus-spreads-among-fur-farms-in-utah-wisconsin-michigan-oregon-at-least-12-mink-farms-infected-some-staff-infected-in-oregon-wild-mink-in-utah 

Maybe related ? 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 updated with Malaysia-variant (Sabah A701B)...

(I would like to have more info on South American variants-both the ones from Brazil and Argentina and spread of SA and UK variant...)

In NL there will be three large scale testing operations a.o. to seek for the spread of the UK variant-in two of these testing programs over 60,000 people will get tested. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2021 at 12:37pm

I'm interested in the Brazilian variant but haven't been able to find out much info on it yet.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2021 at 12:49pm

Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

I'm interested in the Brazilian variant but haven't been able to find out much info on it yet.

It's called the Japanese variant, I guess because they "discovered" it....

https://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcafee&type=C211US1264D20151222&p=japanese+variant

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2021 at 11:17pm

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_variant (Brazilian variant or B.1.1.248 lineage) ; This variant of of SARS-CoV-2 has 12 mutations in its spike protein, including N501Y and E484K


[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant (SA variant or 20C/501Y.V2B.1.351 lineage[); Two mutations found in 501.V2, E484K and K417N, are not found in Variant of Concern 202012/01. Also, 501.V2 does not have the 69-70del mutation found in the other variant.[15][8]

DJ-Also a look at UK variant (or lineage B.1.1.7 or 20B/501Y.V1) [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01 ; The VOC-202012/01 variant is defined by 23 mutations: 13 non-synonymous mutations, 4 deletions, and 6 synonymous mutations[18] (i.e., there are 17 mutations that change proteins and six that do not[2]).

-

It is correlated with a significant increase in the rate of COVID-19 infections in the United Kingdom; this increase is thought to be at least partly because of change N501Y (see nomenclature for mutations) inside the spike glycoprotein's receptor-binding domain, which binds ACE2 in human cells. The variant is also notable for the higher number of mutations it contains compared to the recorded trend to date.[2]


-All three variants have a change at position 501 (N to Y). The Brazil and SA variant share also the change at position 484 (E to K). The SA variant also has a change at position 417 (K to N) . Problem with these changes is that it is at places that connects the virus to human (ACE-2-all over the body) receptors. The more changes there the more infectious the virus seems to be getting (in these variants-most mutations make the virus weaker, changes are at random, mistakes in reproduction).

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutation#Nomenclature[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutation#Nomenclature 

-There are several other variants (Nigeria, Argentina, US (2x), Malaysia but they may not be spreading this fast-yet. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2021 at 1:47pm

This seemed noteworthy. Does anybody besides me find it "interesting" that the "experts" said the rate of mutation was slow, yet we have many variants with the same mutation arising at the same time around the world in all kinds of climates.? This is easy to ascertain by looking at daily case rates for different countries on Worldometer. What are the odds of of this? 


New coronavirus variants could cause more reinfections, require updated vaccines


Source: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021...dated-vaccines


New coronavirus variants could cause more reinfections, require updated vaccines
By Kai KupferschmidtJan. 15, 2021 , 4:55 PM

Science’s COVID-19 reporting is supported by the Pulitzer Center and the Heising-Simons Foundation.

When the number of COVID-19 cases began to rise again in Manaus, Brazil, in December 2020, Nuno Faria was stunned. The virologist at Imperial College London and associate professor at the University of Oxford had just co-authored a paper in Science estimating that three-quarters of the city’s inhabitants had already been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the pandemic coronavirus—more than enough, it seemed, for herd immunity to develop. The virus should be done with Manaus. Yet hospitals were filling up again. “It was hard to reconcile these two things,” Faria says. He started to hunt for samples he could sequence to find out whether changes in the virus could explain the resurgence.

On 12 January, Faria and his colleagues posted their initial conclusions on the website virological.org. Thirteen of 31 samples collected in mid-December in Manaus turned out to be part of a new viral lineage they called P.1. Much more research is needed, but they say one possibility is that in some people, P.1 eludes the human immune response triggered by the lineage that ravaged the city earlier in 2020...
"Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2021 at 2:24pm

Originally posted by AndyPOW AndyPOW wrote:

This seemed noteworthy. Does anybody besides me find it "interesting" that the "experts" said the rate of mutation was slow, yet we have many variants with the same mutation arising at the same time around the world in all kinds of climates.? This is easy to ascertain by looking at daily case rates for different countries on Worldometer. What are the odds of of this? 


New coronavirus variants could cause more reinfections, require updated vaccines


Source: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021...dated-vaccines


New coronavirus variants could cause more reinfections, require updated vaccines
By Kai KupferschmidtJan. 15, 2021 , 4:55 PM

Science’s COVID-19 reporting is supported by the Pulitzer Center and the Heising-Simons Foundation.

When the number of COVID-19 cases began to rise again in Manaus, Brazil, in December 2020, Nuno Faria was stunned. The virologist at Imperial College London and associate professor at the University of Oxford had just co-authored a paper in Science estimating that three-quarters of the city’s inhabitants had already been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the pandemic coronavirus—more than enough, it seemed, for herd immunity to develop. The virus should be done with Manaus. Yet hospitals were filling up again. “It was hard to reconcile these two things,” Faria says. He started to hunt for samples he could sequence to find out whether changes in the virus could explain the resurgence.

On 12 January, Faria and his colleagues posted their initial conclusions on the website virological.org. Thirteen of 31 samples collected in mid-December in Manaus turned out to be part of a new viral lineage they called P.1. Much more research is needed, but they say one possibility is that in some people, P.1 eludes the human immune response triggered by the lineage that ravaged the city earlier in 2020...


I don't know much about how or why viruses mutate but looking at the probability of it all it makes sense. If you think of each person with Covid as being a petri dish in a lab, then with 80 million petri dishes then mutations are far more likely than with 1 million. As far as the mutations all being similiar but occurring sponateously around the world, well perhaps that is also to be expected. Maybe the area of weakness in the virus is in the spike proteins (which is where all these mutations are happening) and this is the part that is most likely to mutate. 

To put it in terms of human mutating to adapt to modern life, I would say it would be very unlikely that we would suddenly grow a second head but it would be more likely that we would grow a third arm (needed because we are all so busy multitasking) or additional fingers.

As you can see, I'm not a scientist  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2021 at 4:34pm

Slightly overstated, KiwiMum........................................  but not wrong.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2021 at 10:00pm

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

Slightly overstated, KiwiMum........................................  but not wrong.

Well as I said, I'm no scientist.      

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2021 at 10:38pm

If there has been a robbery it is more likely the robber will change his coat then plastic surgery or paint his hair...In a virus some mutations may be much easier (the 501 segment, not having segment 69/70) then others...

[url]http://www.recombinomics.com/viral_evolution.html[/url] or http://www.recombinomics.com/viral_evolution.html is also "interesting" two "viral strings"mix and the outcome can be a third string from two parts of the older string. Also an existing virus can "link" part of an other viral "string"...and by accident even survive, become a major risk...

As KiwiMum did say-there is a difference between 1 petri-dish and 80 million petri-dishes. Mutations happen when the virus reproduces itself (in a host cell-they need outside "help" that is why virusses are on the border of living things..) The more often it reproduces the more mutations are likely...

With a "super computer" you can calculate the "risk for mutation" of every of the over 32,000 "segments" of the Covid19 (RNA) virus...In that way discover what kind of mutations are more likely. Of course this virus has had over 15,000 mutations so far already-in itself a data base for what to expect. 

If you "confront"the findings of possible mutations with the "terrain" virus hosts-one can make models for how a pandemic spreads. A theoritical framework searching for the worst, best, most likely way a pandemic will develop. 

This question is important. The theory is the more wider a virus get spread, the "older" the virus gets, the less virulent a virus becomes. This corona-virus so far ignores that idea...

A "herd immunity strategy" may have been okay if the virus did evolve towards a cold-virus during 2020. But it did not do so...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 17 2021 at 1:07am

You just got to love the little beasties,so simple do deadly,

You have to add international travel into the equation......

That means mixing at airport hubs......

Thoses Emirates hubs were a Petri dish before covid,I was so glad when the non-stop flights came in from here to UK,

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 17 2021 at 12:12pm

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

You just got to love the little beasties,so simple do deadly,

You have to add international travel into the equation......

That means mixing at airport hubs......

Thoses Emirates hubs were a Petri dish before covid,I was so glad when the non-stop flights came in from here to UK,

But I always love being at Dubai airport. I like the fact that they clean the toilet straight after you've used it. My flight always lands at one terminal and the next one leaves at another gate at the far end of the airport. My last time through there it took me 45 minutes to walk to my new gate and I'm a fast walker and very fit. I must have walked past 10,000 people from all over the world - a perfect germ storm. Then I normally fly to Schipol in Amsterdam which is the largest airport in Europe and do the same thing - walk to the other end for my next regional flight.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 17 2021 at 1:33pm

I've had to get on train at Dubai(The world is in Dubai) to get my next flight( wait over 5 hours) ,to London,then on The tube to get train to Birmingham can you imagine  the people I contact with.....

And they all in transit........

millions of permutations.....

for any virus........

Remember......the bad one is yet to come or is it here now....only we in denial.....?



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 18 2021 at 7:29am

20C-US

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― Ben Shapiro
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2021 at 3:55am

China-Bejing two-UK variant cases; [url]https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1213387.shtml[/url] or https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202101/1213387.shtml ; The COVID-19 strain found in two cases from Beijing's Daxing district is the same as the variant initially found in the UK, suggesting it was imported from an overseas source: Beijing authorities

DJ; Global Times is very close to CCP/China Government, the very short article does NOT mention a DIRECT travel link-so it is very likely the UK variant may be spreading in Bejing(area). See also [url]https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210120-partial-lockdown-in-beijing-as-uk-virus-variant-detected[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210120-partial-lockdown-in-beijing-as-uk-virus-variant-detected ; 1.6 million residents were banned from leaving Beijing on Wednesday as two Covid-19 cases linked to a new UK virus variant were found in the Chinese capital.

-

With the Lunar New Year Holiday looming, officials had been keen to avoid an outbreak in Beijing, the heart of political power. But a handful of cases have been detected in the capital in recent days, with six more reported Wednesday in southern Daxing district.

-

The cases had "no genetic correlation with previously reported local cases and imported cases in Beijing", the head of the Beijing health authority Pang Xinghuo told reporters, but are "considered to be variants of the new coronavirus discovered in the UK."

All 1.6 million residents of Daxing are barred from leaving Beijing unless they have received special permission from the authorities and tested negative for Covid-19 in the past three days, the district said. Residents of five neighbourhoods, where the recent cases were detected, were ordered to remain indoors. Meetings of 50 or more people in the district have been banned, while "weddings should be postponed and funerals simplified," the Daxing government said. It also ordered all kindergarten, primary and secondary students in the district to study at home. Daxing includes one of the city's two international airports.

-South Africa [url]https://www.nicd.ac.za/can-i-be-re-infected-with-the-new-variant-if-ive-had-covid-19/[/url] or https://www.nicd.ac.za/can-i-be-re-infected-with-the-new-variant-if-ive-had-covid-19/

People who have recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection are usually protected from being infected a second time (called re-infection). This is because they develop neutralizing antibodies that remain in their blood for at least 5-6 months, maybe longer. These antibodies bind to specific parts of the spike protein that have mutated in the new variant (K417N and E484K). We now know that these mutations have allowed the virus to become resistant to antibody neutralization.

The blood samples from half the people we tested showed that all neutralizing activity was lost. This suggests that they may no longer be protected from re-infection. In the other half, the levels of antibodies were reduced and so the risk of re-infection is not known. It is therefore important that people who have previously had COVID-19 continue to adhere to public health measures. Protecting ourselves through masks, regular washing or sanitising of hands, cleaning of surfaces, and social distancing remain the best defense against all SARS-CoV-2 viruses, including the new lineage.

DJ-Yes-you can get reinfected from the SA variant after earlier "old variant" infection...it does not say vaccines become much less effective...still bad news...

Israel UK variant [url]https://www.debka.com/as-covid-runs-out-of-control-israels-lockdown-prolonged-to-jan-31/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/as-covid-runs-out-of-control-israels-lockdown-prolonged-to-jan-31/

Concerns are now focusing on two large groups. The ultra-religious communities, which accounted for a disproportionate 40pc of the new cases recorded on Monday. Health officials report that the UK variant of the covid virus is already rife in most parts of the country, but especially among the ultra-religious groups. While many of them abide by health guidelines, some of their rabbis insist on uninterrupted Torah studies at their schools and seminaries. Police, who find closing down these schools an impossible task, forcibly broke up a crowded wedding party in Bnei Brak on Tuesday.

The second group came into unexpected fore when 10 pregnant women contracted coronavirus and were admitted to hospital in serious condition. They were not vaccinated against the virus, because their youth placed them low on the priority chart. And the vaccine manufacturers had never included pregnant women in their trials. The Health Ministry reacted by urging all women who were pregnant or lactating to nonetheless get themselves immunized without delay, since the vaccine seemed to be comparatively harmless compared with the deadly virus.

-DJ-Over 60 countries did report the UK variant, 27 countries reported the SA variant-most likely these and the B (Brazil) variant are much wider spread-not that easy to detect. On the German variant ; [url]https://www.euronews.com/2021/01/20/coronavirus-germany-tightens-restrictions-and-netherlands-mulls-curfew-over-variants-fears[/url] or https://www.euronews.com/2021/01/20/coronavirus-germany-tightens-restrictions-and-netherlands-mulls-curfew-over-variants-fears ("no news yet")

It is very likely the B-variant is spreading in Portugal, SA variants are found often in Switzerland-the UK variant must be all over the globe. The US may also face a mix of variants [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 has also the CAL-20C from the US CAL.20C[42] was first observed by researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in July 2020 in one of 1,230 virus samples collected in Los Angeles County. The variant, which contains mutation L452R, was not detected again in Southern California until October 2020. In November 2020, the CAL.20C variant accounted for 36 percent of samples collected at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, and by January 2021, the CAL.20C variant accounted for 50 percent of samples.[43]

DJ-there was mention of yet another US variant, besides that there is also believed A (Argentine) and N (Nigeria) variants...the explosion of cases is followed by an explosion of variants. Vaccination and mixing of variants will create new variants...NPI helps to keep down viral spread. Vaccines-after a few weeks-may offer some protection. But it is reasonable to expect vaccines will not protect against all the variants 95%...We have to stop viral spread by "freezing of mobility"...Ivermectin may be able to be usefull as treatment /prevention in many cases (it looks like that at least..)


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2021 at 6:36am

I call BS. Till I see solid facts. This story came out of Brazil, literally a third world country.

Viruses are more likely to evolve and become less virulent over time. (not always)


Maybe they need to drum up vaccine sales?  


I'll treat this with an ounce of skepticism.


Thanks for posting.

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2021 at 7:35am

cobber, you may have a point (eventhough some of the studies on limited effectivity are also "close to science"-reinfections being reported in South Africa/Suid Afrika and Brazil, would also explain high Israel numbers..) From Nature;

[url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03207-w?utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=commission_junction&utm_campaign=3_nsn6445_deeplink_PID7988268&utm_content=deeplink[/url],

or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03207-w?utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=commission_junction&utm_campaign=3_nsn6445_deeplink_PID7988268&utm_content=deeplink ;Antibody levels decrease with time, but the nature and quality of the memory B cells that would be called upon to produce antibodies upon re-infection has not been examined. Here we report on the humoral memory response in a cohort of 87 individuals assessed at 1.3 and 6.2 months after infection. We find that IgM, and IgG anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike protein receptor binding domain (RBD) antibody titres decrease significantly with IgA being less affected. Concurrently, neutralizing activity in plasma decreases by fivefold in pseudotype virus assays. In contrast, the number of RBD-specific memory B cells is unchanged. Memory B cells display clonal turnover after 6.2 months, and the antibodies they express have greater somatic hypermutation, increased potency and resistance to RBD mutations, indicative of continued evolution of the humoral response. Analysis of intestinal biopsies obtained from asymptomatic individuals 4 months after the onset of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), using immunofluorescence, or polymerase chain reaction, revealed persistence of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acids and immunoreactivity in the small bowel of 7 out of 14 volunteers. We conclude that the memory B cell response to SARS-CoV-2 evolves between 1.3 and 6.2 months after infection in a manner that is consistent with antigen persistence.

DJ-B cell immunity would still be there after 6 months-also against variants...they "adjust"to virus mutations this study finds...(So "re-infections" are not re-infections in the sense that a first infection did not start B-cell immunity ???)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2021 at 7:37am

Viruses are likely to evolve to be less deadly over time.  This is the standard path.  But it is not guaranteed and is accompanied by the words: "Viruses are likely to evolve to be more contagious over time."

Epidemiologists will also tell you that to threaten the existance of a species, a disease has to be carried by another species.  To date mink and ferrets (musterlids) flying foxes (bats) cats, snow leopards, puma, lions and tigers (cats) domestic dogs (canines) hamsters (rodents) pangolin (manidae) and several other species of primates (like us) have all tested positive for the virus.  That is a huge number of species - the groups, which I listed in brackets, contain many species each (except manidae).

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2021 at 7:32am

SA variant;

[url]https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/150913/south-african-variant-belgiums-first-outbreak-in-ostend/[/url] or https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/150913/south-african-variant-belgiums-first-outbreak-in-ostend/ ;

Belgium has declared its first major outbreak of the South African variant of the virus that causes Covid-19, with the infection of 15 people in Ostend.

One case of the variant was detected earlier in the week in the coast city. Today, another 14 were discovered in the geriatrics department of the Sint-Jan hospital. Another single sample was found in a care home.


And the chance is high that more cases will come to light. Another 22 residents of the home are infected with Covid-19, but their samples have not yet been tested for the presence of the variant.

We really have to keep the South African variant out,” said virologist Marc Van Ranst earlier in the week. At the time, that seemed feasible: only eight samples had been found in the whole country.

But the discovery of a larger outbreak raises new fears. Like its British counterpart, this variant is known to be more infectious that the ordinary virus, and so is more likely to spread quickly.

DJ Also Switzerland reported SA variant cases-a few weeks ago [url]https://www.thelocal.ch/20210104/mutated-coronavirus-strain-found-in-several-regions-of-switzerland[/url] or https://www.thelocal.ch/20210104/mutated-coronavirus-strain-found-in-several-regions-of-switzerland

Geneva is the latest of six Swiss cantons to detect the new virus variants originating in the UK as well as South Africa.

Geneva’s health authorities announced on Sunday that five cases of the new UK strain had been found in the canton.

“It is very likely that there is community circulation of this strain in our canton”, Geneva’s Health Department (DSES) said in a press release

-

Several other cases of the UK variant were also found at the end of December in Zurich, Graubünden, Valais, and Bern, and one case of the South African strain was detected in Ticino, according to the Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH).

The UK variant means closing of a Berlin hospital; [url]https://www.world-today-news.com/infection-with-b-1-1-7-cannot-be-explained-by-travel/[/url] or https://www.world-today-news.com/infection-with-b-1-1-7-cannot-be-explained-by-travel/The dreaded British corona mutation seems to be spreading in a Berlin hospital. On Wednesday, the clinic reported four infected patients and two nurses in whom the SARS-CoV2 variant of type B.1.1.7 was detected. On Thursday, the Vivantes Humboldt Clinic said that the mutation had been found in eleven people on one ward. In none of the cases could the infection be explained by a trip. According to the Robert Koch Institute, there is also further evidence outside of the clinic in Berlin. Has the mutation already spread there unnoticed?

DJ-Yes it is spreading all over the globe-only limited reporting on the B (Brazil) variant in Europe.

Cases of variant B.1.1.7 were also discovered in other federal states, as reported by the Robert Koch Institute. According to a spokeswoman, 28 cases were reported from seven federal states (as of January 21, 12 a.m.). Because the virus samples are now being examined more closely in many places, these numbers could also increase significantly in the near future.

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