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New Zealand earthquake/weather

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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    Posted: February 15 2023 at 4:51am

[url]https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/magnitude-60-earthquake-felt-in-wellington/65IK6BHLOBB45C7TGWKZTUUOTI/[/url] or https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/magnitude-60-earthquake-felt-in-wellington/65IK6BHLOBB45C7TGWKZTUUOTI/

Tens of thousands of New Zealanders have been shaken by a 6.3 magnitude earthquake centred near Wellington tonight - described by some as “massive” and “scary”.

The quake started with a large jolt followed by at least 30 seconds of moderate shaking.

GeoNet says the quake took place at 7.38pm around 50km northwest of Paraparaumu at a depth of 48km. It classed the shaking as strong.

More than 60,000 Kiwis reported feeling the quake with the official GeoNet site, including in Auckland and Christchurch. One resident of the Garden City described it as a rolling sensation as opposed to “jolty”.


The National Emergency Management Agency has advised there is no tsunami threat.

The Wellington Region Emergency Management Office said aftershocks should be expected.

A short time later another earthquake, this one magnitude 4.0, hit 45km southwest of Taumarunui and at a depth of 78km.

and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Gabrielle[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Gabrielle ;

A firefighter went missing after being caught in a landslide in Muriwai, and was later found dead.[44] Three other people were found dead in Hawke's Bay.[45][46] Chris Hipkins announced on 13 February that the Government would provide NZ$11.5 million to support the community response to the cyclone.[23] The maximum rainfall from Gabrielle was 408.7 millimetres (16.09 in), which occurred at Glenbervie Forest.[47]

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In Vanuatu, Malpoi, a village in the northwest of Santo Island, was severely impacted with landslides, mud, and destruction of houses and gardens.[52] The water supply was also contaminated. As their plantations were damaged by the landslide, Allan Taman's chairman stated that the villagers may require long-term financial assistance.[52] In New Caledonia, the cyclone was threatened with strong swell warnings in place for 16 district, 14 boats were damaged and one sunk due to wind and swells, leading to an evacuation plan for the damaged ships.[52]

DJ An earthquake following a major storm may have links to such a storm and the amount-pressure-of water...

So far the weather did see 4 people dying...More news when available...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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KiwiMum View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 15 2023 at 11:18am

We felt it here. I'm just north of Christchurch in the middle of the South Island. It wasn't major here. I was sitting on the carpet and my hubby was in a chair, so we felt the continuation of the shaking but honestly it wasn't much. It set the lamps in the ceiling swinging but that's about it. I put in a "felt" report.

Our new Prime Minister said that as soon as he felt it he went and looked out the window for a plague of locusts.   Ha ha ha. As you know we've had a cyclone, most of the North Island is flooded and a number of people are missing  in the flood waters. It's been pretty devastating. 

The quake was deep, at 76km and a 6.2. It was located between north and south islands under the ocean. Only time will tell if it's a foreshock to something larger.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 15 2023 at 12:18pm

Good to hear you are all okay ! 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_1dD2IbV70[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_1dD2IbV70 New Zealand calculated risk of an M8+ earthquake now put at 25% within coming 50 years...with linked a major tsunami risk.

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table has New Zealand at 8,789 CoViD cases last week...these last 7 days it went -18% to 7,169. Deaths went from 26 to 28 last 7 days...NZ population just over 4,8 million...

NZHerald has latest news on You Tube...most of damage -North Island- is from the cyclone

[url]https://getready.govt.nz/prepared/school/whats-the-plan-stan/learn-about-storms[/url] or https://getready.govt.nz/prepared/school/whats-the-plan-stan/learn-about-storms 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%9322_Hunga_Tonga%E2%80%93Hunga_Ha%CA%BBapai_eruption_and_tsunami[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%9322_Hunga_Tonga%E2%80%93Hunga_Ha%CA%BBapai_eruption_and_tsunami DJ...what makes New Zealand, Tonga etc different from "events" in Europe, Asia, America is;

-remoteness

-lack of large population

So help may take long...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 15 2023 at 9:40pm

A look at New Zealand CoViD cases, 2.2 million, 3,839 deaths...how will the cyclone/earthquake work out ? 

[url]https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/cyclone-gabrielle-floods-rescue-operation-underway-in-puketapu-napier-new-hawkes-bay-evacuations/RMMVL7IR6ZBITE4RODSM2PXQAI/[/url] or https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/cyclone-gabrielle-floods-rescue-operation-underway-in-puketapu-napier-new-hawkes-bay-evacuations/RMMVL7IR6ZBITE4RODSM2PXQAI/ ;

More than 3500 people - the vast majority in Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne - have been classified by police as “uncontactable”, as staggering new photographs reveal the destruction caused by Cyclone Gabrielle in the region. Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said tonight that New Zealanders needed “to prepare for the likelihood there will be more fatalities”.

DJ; Disasters have "different dimensions"

-Acute disaster; the storm, earthquake itself

-The (major) risk of "the disaster after the disaster" (Like cholera killing 9,000 in Haïti after an earthquake killing 250,000 [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Haiti_earthquake[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Haiti_earthquake (deaths in between 100,000 and 316,000). 

Also can the location be reached...from NL to Türkiye earthquake is a 36-40 hour drive..Ukraine western borders may take 8-10 hours...Both disaster area's can be reached in many ways so "massive help" via road, railroad, air, ship can arrive within a few days...Wounded may find a hospital bed with 1,000 kilometer -often- from where they live(d). 

A disaster in a more remote area -like New Zealand- may be much harder to deal with...Australia, New Zealand together have a population of just over 30 million...A  less then two hour car drive radius from where I live in NL has the same amount of people...in a very much smaller area. 

I think the "world" should have a "global disaster management team" 24/7 all year round...If "we" can bomb ANY target in this world within a few hours we should be able -better humans- when we set ourselves a goal of getting (first) aid within a few hours at ANY place...

IF New Zealand-or any other more remote place- has to deal with a "larger then they can handle" disaster then we should have "prepared" for that...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981_South_Africa_rugby_union_tour_of_New_Zealand_and_the_United_States[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981_South_Africa_rugby_union_tour_of_New_Zealand_and_the_United_States in 1981 the South African-apartheid-rugby team visited New Zealand...New Zealand ran out of police to deal with the unrest that gave...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_New_Caledonian_protests[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_New_Caledonian_protests France had to fly in police from France [url]https://www.distancefromto.net/distance-from-france-to-new-caledonia[/url] or https://www.distancefromto.net/distance-from-france-to-new-caledonia 16,800 kilometers/10,450 miles away...

Distance as a factor worsening a crisis....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 16 2023 at 2:16am

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fUj7zjbAFw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fUj7zjbAFw ;

Its worse than we thought...The hazard of a fault rupture (earthquake!) on the Alpine Fault in New Zealand has been upgraded following in depth research along several lakes in the West Coast of the South Island. The probability of a magnitude 8 earthquake in the next 50 years is now much higher than previously thought. In this video I interview Jamie Howarth who has led this research. 
For a comprehensive interactive article about the Alpine Fault earthquake hazard and its implications for New Zealand see https://faultlines.nz/ Out There Learning on YouTube is kindly endorsed by the Geoscience Society of New Zealand www.gsnz.org.nz

DJ, minute 15.02 82% chance of an M8+ earthquake in central Alpine fault....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_New_Zealand[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_New_Zealand that strong earthquakes do not happen that much in the New Zealand area...M8+ most likely will mean a tsunami...Even if most of the tsunami would move to Antarctica it would be bad...

[url]https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-21/japan-earthquake-rescue-squad-prepare-for-next-mega-quake/101287806[/url] or https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-21/japan-earthquake-rescue-squad-prepare-for-next-mega-quake/101287806 we did get better in calculating earthquake risks...however "wishfull thinking" still may result in underestimating the risks...

On top of pandemics wars and "natural disasters" (both with links to climate change) worsen the crises...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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KiwiMum View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 16 2023 at 12:21pm

Josh, according to probability, the Alpine Fault is more likely to rupture this afternoon than it is tomorrow morning. It's what we're all waiting for. I hope it happens while I'm young enough to enjoy it. We have all been told to prepare for an 8.2 or larger. Shaking will last anywhere from 3 minutes to 7.5 minutes. I live 60km from that fault line and am surrounded by fault lines that all lead into it. It's the reason why the mountains that I look at every day exist.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 16 2023 at 11:25pm

kiwiMum, right attitude...I think...Knowing the dangers but not making them stop enjoying the good things...

[url]https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/weather-news/300809447/cyclone-gabrielle-live-updates-ongoing-disaster-after-extraordinary-flood[/url] or https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/weather-news/300809447/cyclone-gabrielle-live-updates-ongoing-disaster-after-extraordinary-flood ;

What you need to know:

DJ, Comparing disasters has limited use. The New Zealand story would be world news if other events (Türkiye/Syria, Ukraine...balloons...) did not "make the news"....

Can you "translate" a disaster to another country ? NL has 4x the population would be so far 36 deaths...40,000 people displaced...On a German level-20x would be 180 deaths and 200,000 displaced...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_European_floods[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_European_floods this kind of level....

"Under" the news is "rivers in the sky"-climate collapse with both extreme droughts and extreme rains...I could look at Belgian statistics for CoViD...but only a small part of Belgium was hit (and hit hard 43 deaths...). So -just like New Zealand-maybe in some regions CoViD may increase...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnival[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnival may do more for spread of CoViD (in some parts) then regional floods and quakes...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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