Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese  Click to Translate to Myanmar (Burmese)

PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
123456
Forum Home Forum Home > Main Forums > General Discussion
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Note from a statistician
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

Note from a statistician

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
Message
Tabitha111 View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group
Avatar

Joined: January 11 2020
Location: Virginia
Status: Offline
Points: 11460
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Note from a statistician
    Posted: January 03 2022 at 6:27am
Sharing Steven Millman's latest projections.  He’s a very good statistician. 😢

2h  · 
BRIEF COVID Update January 2nd - Omicron & Happy F'ing New Year
I'm getting a lot of requests for an update which I haven't done for some time and which I frankly dread doing. I haven't had time to write up a proper one, but the short version is that my models are aligning around the
Omicron peak landing between the 20th & 25th of January which is about a week later than most circulating estimates.
Infection rates could potentially peak higher than a staggering 500,000 cases per day (weekly average) which would be DOUBLE the previous record set about a year ago. The range of the model is 430,000-570,000.
Deaths should start to rise noticeably within the next few days. Although the case fatality rate should be substantially lower for a variety of reasons. Look for the number of death per day (weekly average) to peak around February 15th. The model with the most friendly assumptions lands around 3,000-4,000 dead per day (weekly average) and the least friendly between 5,000-6,000 dead per day (weekly average). I'll be able to narrow that range in the next week or so as more data become available. 
For reference, the previous peak was about 3,400 dead per day (weekly average) in January 2021.
Deaths, as you might expect. will be almost entirely among the unvaccinated, so these numbers can be reduced dramatically by getting the holdouts to get themselves vaccinated. No, I don't have much hope that they'll do so, but that's what would be necessary to avoid this outcome.
Let's also not forget that we've been above an average of 1,000 dead per day in the United States (more or less) for the last 130 days (mid-August, 2021).  
If I can find the time and the intestinal fortitude to do a full write up with projections, I will do so soon. For now, feel free to ask questions in the comments below.
As always, I'm not a doctor. I'm a professional statistician who's sad to still be doing this.
'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius

Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Online
Points: 63537
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2022 at 6:39am

[url]https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend[/url] or https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend some other models/calculations....Given healthcare is at breakingpoint in lots of places I do not see much room for optimism...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Littlesmile View Drop Down
V.I.P. Member
V.I.P. Member
Avatar

Joined: July 18 2016
Location: Northern irelan
Status: Offline
Points: 1630
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Littlesmile Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2022 at 6:40am

Thanks for this! So the peak is estimated for the 20th/25th January.. Wonder if that would be similar to here? Or even UK?


:-)
Back to Top
Hazelpad View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: September 09 2014
Location: scotland
Status: Offline
Points: 6755
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hazelpad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2022 at 11:04am

Hi Littlesmile,

Just across water from you...its gone nuts here.  They are suggesting end of Jan here in Scotlandbut half the time they are guessing.  Schools going back on Wednesday  ....here we go again.


Mum I have a scratchy throat.......,  mum why does my head ache when I move my eyes.  Mum  28 people in my class are off today does that matter.....mum there are no teachers today we watched films all day......

Hz x

Back to Top
Littlesmile View Drop Down
V.I.P. Member
V.I.P. Member
Avatar

Joined: July 18 2016
Location: Northern irelan
Status: Offline
Points: 1630
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Littlesmile Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2022 at 11:55am

Thank you Hazelpad! 😊 

That's what I assumed too but had wondered if we were different stages... Our schools are back this week too. Its hard to imagine how things will go now. Or how things can get any worse... I know of many parents not willing to send kids in to school and I know of a few schools claiming 'heating' problems. Also due to lack of staff pupils have no transport to school... So over all its a really good (or poor) start lol.

:-)
Back to Top
roni3470 View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group
Avatar

Joined: August 30 2006
Location: Colorado
Status: Offline
Points: 4425
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2022 at 1:57pm

We are facing the same thing in Littleton, Colorado.  Not enough bus drivers, kitchen staff, and expecting shortages of teachers.  Meanwhile, our county is mask optional even in schools.  Its the only county in Colorado like that and its just so infuriating!  I can't imagine what its going to be like in 1-2 weeks here.

NOW is the Season to Know

that Everything you Do

is Sacred
Back to Top
KiwiMum View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator
Avatar

Joined: May 29 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 25905
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2022 at 3:44pm

What a complete nightmare for the schools. How do you manage social distancing when understaffed? It will inevitable that classes will have to be combined so that one teacher can look after 60 instead of 30, and so the children will be in closer proximity to each other than previously and so it goes on. 

I think it's a great idea for a school to suddenly develop "problems" that means it has to stay closed. Personally, if I were a school principal, I'd be out there with a shovel helping the sewage main to rupture accidentally, and preferably inside a building so it takes months to put right......  

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down