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NUCLEAR WAR

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 09 2022 at 7:08am

Russian planes nowhere to be seen over Ukraine as superior technology appears to have limited them to the increasingly smaller friendly skies...

"The American AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missile is already in the Su-27. 




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Igor Girkin - Ukrainians will continue advancing aiming to strike approaching Russian reserves during the march. Russians may be forced to abandon Izyum very soon. https://t.me/strelkovii/3192


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A Russian Telegram channel claims that the commander of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division evacuated from Izyum two days ago even though some of his forces are still in the area. https://t.me/romanov_92/27170


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 09 2022 at 9:33am

Sounds like the antique Warthog is mopping up. I wonder how many have been "smuggled" in?


"Mom, I am OK. I want to show you something. Behind me is the #Izium city area. Oh wow! Look, this is A-10 Warthog! And another one! Here is the Lend-Lease!" This happy #Ukrainian soldier's video selfie is the first ever (to my memory) evidence of the US A-10 Warthogs in #Ukraine


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 09 2022 at 11:04pm

DJ, 

I read ksc his posts; China getting Russian energy 50% discount-Q; of "marketprice"? Then Russia very likely still is making money out of those sales...In Germany 70% of population wants to support Ukraine...from when was that poll, I notice a shift in the moods...

On the "Ukraine offensive" a lot of comments, to some degree [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0D-LgPMVz8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0D-LgPMVz8 MS/Military Summary think Russia is moving Ukraine into a trap....[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNfFaD80rlo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNfFaD80rlo "Weeb Union" WU mentions rivers at low waterlevel- (a broken dam more to the south did give way to low water levels) so Ukraine could move via rivers without bridges...Also mentioning heavy rains expected in the battlezone from Monday on...

[url]https://southfront.org/russian-forces-retreat/[/url] or https://southfront.org/russian-forces-retreat/ South Front/SF a few points; 

-Ukraine forces also using forests as protection against drones/air observation (DJ If they also do not send mobile phone signals it would help...infrared still would undo the forest cover). 

-West did send extra new weapons, (over) 20% of fighters on the Ukraine side are "not Ukrainian"...

(I did see ksc post on A-10 anti tank attack aircraft the US did send to Ukraine...may work in that area...).

My impression-for now-is that IF ! Russia is still in control of the battle here it should show soon...I think Ukraine forces are over exposed, still lack air/artillery dominance...Russia only has limited time to deal with / use that....

[url]https://thesaker.is/update-on-the-ukrainian-attack-towards-kupiansk-and-some-week-end-music/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/update-on-the-ukrainian-attack-towards-kupiansk-and-some-week-end-music/

Two things:

  1. This is, by far, the most successful Ukrainian attack since the SMO began
  2. This entire battle is limited to a short and very narrow segment of the line of contact.

The Ukrainian plan is very simple: show NATO the best they can do and it appears that the best they can do is to conduct a tactical attack (not an operational level one!) at an immense costs in human lives.

-

The fact that a “super-dooper US military commander and genius strategist” like Blinken has traveled to Kiev is no coincidence and it is rather evident the true reason why this entire show has been executed is pretty obvious:  Blinken is desperate to make President Brandon look good/better/less clueless (“Presidential” in US parlance) before the upcoming elections. 

DJ, basic point-do not jump to early conclusions....The main fighting in NE Ukraine is not far from the Russian border...Russia did have extra military in reserve for an offensive...Russia also was "very well informed" on Ukraine decissions...

IF !!! Russia fails to take over the initiative in this area one should wonder why...I do not think there is a shortage of supplies for Russia-certainly not this close to the Russian border. Is there a problem in command ? Not clear-on the Russian side-who decides what ? 

-Lots of indications Ukraine "militia" will "filter" (kill?) anyone with a Russian pasport...

-Will this war end in october because of the weather ? World War Two did not stop because of the weather...

In my opinion this war will end [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/financial-guys-three-times-more-extreme-than-2008[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/financial-guys-three-times-more-extreme-than-2008 and [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/scariest-paper-2022-reveals-terrifying-fate-bidens-economy-millions-are-about-lose-their[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/scariest-paper-2022-reveals-terrifying-fate-bidens-economy-millions-are-about-lose-their (a.o.) because of western economic collapse...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-boost-ammunition-production-after-ukraine-depletes-stockpiles[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-boost-ammunition-production-after-ukraine-depletes-stockpiles western armies running out of weapons, fuel, public support...

DJ-This war should have been prevented by the west-renewing older weapon-agreements once made with the Soviet Union...Why was the west willing to talk with the Soviet Union -sign all kinds of agreements- on security and cooperation ( "Open Skies") -and NOT willing to talk seriously with Russia ? 

Did the "west" realy believe it could "sanction regime change in Moscow" ? The west is now in a much weaker position then it was early this year..."we" may be close to economic, political, social collapse..."it should not be this way"...

(I may update later/start a new post-expect MS/others to come up with new info [url]https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-september-videos-show-mechanized-ukrainian-forces-crossing[/url] or https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/9-september-videos-show-mechanized-ukrainian-forces-crossing may indicate Ukraine still in the offensive...very likely working itself in a major disaster...). 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9QyfijKCPU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9QyfijKCPU latest from "Weeb Union"; Russia moving in 3rd army...so far saving (Russian)  lives mattered more for the Russian military - they pulled back/gave way...Now decided to stop Ukraine and may be able to encircle the (Pro)Ukraine forces...

DJ Initial (Pro)Ukraine  group in this offensive was believed to be 9,000 soldiers...However lots of extra's were moved in...Ukraine reached a river-blew up bridges-but low water levels now enable Russia to cross the rivers as well...(By the way, western economies crashing will effect global markets..."rest" may not be able to create enough "demand" to replace the demand from the "west"...). 


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Chaos and disintegration awaits Russia as a result of the war in Ukraine, hinted former FSB officer and ex-minister of defense of the so-called "DPR" Ihor Strelkov-Ghirkin.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 10 2022 at 7:09am

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3zNxBahukU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3zNxBahukU ;The New Arlas

Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for September 10, 2022 - Ukraine continues its offensive around the Kharkov region after its Kherson offensive failed at great cost in lives and equipment; - Tactical gains by Ukraine in Kharkov are also coming at great cost in lives and equipment and will leave Ukrainian forces in ultimately a weaker position than when they began; - Russian withdrawals are tactical, focusing on long-term victory rather than daily headlines; - Russia has repeatedly conserved manpower and equipment in the face of Ukrainian surges to later reform lines and counter attack on their own terms; - The correlation of forces continues to favor Russia; References: Guardian - Russia sends reinforcements to Kharkiv to repel Ukraine counterattack: https://www.theguardian.com/world/202... The Duran - Kharkov, Palmyra and constraints of a 'special military operation': https://youtu.be/zMdmlZs-F9Y Where to Find My Work: Visit The New Atlas Website: https://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/ Follow The New Atlas on Telegram: https://t.me/brianlovethailand Odysee (YouTube alternative): https://odysee.com/@LandDestroyer:8 Rumble (YouTube alternative): https://rumble.com/c/c-1459863 Weibo: https://weibo.com/u/7726044004 ไบ£อัน แฟนคลับ (Facebook): https://facebook.com/BrianThaiFanclub/ Line Group: https://lin.ee/JIxTpKe Gab: https://gab.com/BrianBerletic VK (Facebook alternative): https://vk.com/brianberletic


DJ, Since the basics did not change, the present Ukraine offensive is close to Russia, Ukraine succes will be short lived....Ukraine concentrated its best forces-Russia will deal with it...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4l9E7H7Grc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4l9E7H7Grc on US operators and mercenaries in Ukraine...

-German energy, 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-germanys-energy-suicide-autopsy[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-germanys-energy-suicide-autopsy ;

In a nutshell: as Engdahl describes it, this is about “the EU plan to de-industrialize one of the most energy-efficient industrial concentrations on the planet.”

DJ...if the problem is a wrong idea on how an economy works that is not solved by any (new) energy...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 10 2022 at 3:52pm
KHARKIV / 2015 UTC 10 SEPT/ The rapid collapse of the front east of Kharkiv is the single worst defeat suffered by Russia since World War II. Reports indicate that the city of Izium has been entirely liberated, as has the transportation hub of Kupiansk.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 10 2022 at 4:09pm
Battlefield math… UKR reports 52,000+ RUs killed in action. Putin’s solatia payments seem to confirm this #. That’s staggering. For perspective, that’s the equivalent of 3 US combat divisions (think 82d Airborne, 101st Air Assault, 1st Armored). US has 11 active divisions.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 10 2022 at 5:14pm








Exactly right. The pressure on Kherson is huge. Now cut off and hearing of devastation in Kharkiv Oblast, must be extremely demoralizing for the trapped Russians.
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Paul Niland

@PaulNiland
 · 
Only... The southern offensive is not a bluff. It's very real. 20,000 Russian troops have been cut off in Kherson city because of it. And there's more coming in the south too. Not disinformation. A war on multiple fronts. Being turned up and down as Ukraine dictates. twitter.com/lorenzo_tondo/…
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 10 2022 at 10:40pm

DJ, How can Ukrainian-Russians trust any longer Russia? [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stgKKzG3kwo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stgKKzG3kwo ...

Military Summary (MS) describing total failure of (pro)Russian defense in Chorkov-area...possible further Ukraine offensives towards [url]https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-september-ukrainian-military-are-on-the-outskirts-of-lysychansk[/url] or https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/10-september-ukrainian-military-are-on-the-outskirts-of-lysychansk or Mariupol in the south-east....

I think november 4 was the new date for a referendum on parts of Ukraine joining Russia....well forget about that...As MS is telling; any "Russian-Ukrainian" working with Russia (just to get food, perspective) then falling in the hands of Ukraine simply will get killed....

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/ukraine-russian-military-explains-its-withdrawal-from-the-izium-region.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/ukraine-russian-military-explains-its-withdrawal-from-the-izium-region.html ;

Since September 4, when the Ukrainian operation north of Izium started, the Russia Defense Ministry had said nothing about the issue.

Today it finally published a statement (machine translation):

Statement by the official representative of the Russian Ministry of Defense

In order to achieve the stated goals of the special military operation to liberate Donbass, a decision was made to regroup the Russian troops stationed in the Balakleya and Izyum regions to build up efforts in the Donetsk direction.

To this end, within three days, an operation was carried out to curtail and organize the transfer of the Izyum-Balakley group of troops to the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic.

During this operation, a number of distraction and demonstration activities were carried out with the designation of the real actions of the troops.

In order to prevent damage to Russian troops, a powerful fire defeat was inflicted on the enemy using aviation, missile troops and artillery.

Over three days, more than two thousand Ukrainian and foreign fighters were destroyed, as well as over a hundred units of armored vehicles and artillery.

(Department of Information and Mass Communications of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation)

Has that been the plan all along?

In retrospect that seems likely. The Russian military must have know that the Ukrainian attack was coming. There was only light resistance against the Ukrainian attack. Major Russian units had already been moved out of the area. The region did not have any public priority in Russian planing. A larger fight would have cost many Russian soldier and civilian lives.

So there were no cunning plans to surround the Ukrainian forces and no real disaster or success on either side.

Well, that is at least what the Russian military says. It also fits to the known facts.

There may be another reason why the Russian military did not want to fight for Izium. In May 1942, during the Second Battle of Kharkov, a Soviet counterattack on Nazi held Kharkov was defeated by two preplanned Nazi attacks south and north of Izium.

The names on the map will look familiar to those who have followed the current battle over the past days.

The Soviet counterattack ended in a bloody defeat:

On 17 May, the German 3rd Panzer Corps and XXXXIV Army Corps under the command of Fedor von Bock, supported by aircraft, arrived, enabling the Germans to launch Operation Fridericus, pushing back the Soviet Barvenkovo bridgehead to the south. On 18 May, [Marshal Semyon] Timoshenko requested permission to fall back, but Stalin rejected the request. On 19 May, Paulus launched a general offensive to the north as Bock's troops advanced in the south, thus attempting to surround the Soviets in the Izium salient. Realizing the risk of having entire armies surrounded, Stalin authorized the withdraw, but by that time the Soviet forces were already started to be closed in. On 20 May, the nearly surrounded Soviet forces mounted counteroffensives, but none of the attempts were successful in breaking through the German lines. The Soviets achieved some small victories on 21 and 22 May, but by 24 May, they were surrounded near Kharkov.
...
The Second Battle of Kharkov resulted in an extremely costly loss to the Soviets, which saw 207,000 men killed, wounded, or captured; some estimates put the number as high as 240,000. Over 1,000 Soviet tanks were destroyed during this battle, as well as the loss of 57,000 horses. German losses were much smaller than the Soviets, with over 20,000 killed, wounded, or captured. Soviet General Georgy Zhukov later blamed this major defeat on Stalin, who underestimated German strength in the region and failed to prepare an adequate reserve force to counter the arrival of the German reinforcement that turned the tide.

So it's on towards Donbas.

DJ....[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-counter-offensive-so-far-more-than-4-000-dead-in-two-days[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-counter-offensive-so-far-more-than-4-000-dead-in-two-days ...The Ukraine offensives in Kherson (4000 deaths on Ukraine side) and Charkov (2000/2500 Ukraine deaths) ...point is in Charkov Ukraine did beat Russia....

It does not matter how many Russians did get killed...in PR-ways...Russia almost did loose this war...HT claiming 75,000 Russian military on their way from Moscow (HT claims they are from Vladivostok-area; travelled 3 weeks...)... The "pro-Russian" "3rd Army" made up most from volunteers -a lot of them Ukrainians with Russian roots-up to 60,000 military may be spreading on the Ukraine frontlines...

One of the things "gone wrong" from the Russian side is most of the frontline fighting was done by Donetsk/Luhansk militia...Russia limited the role of Russian military to the south (via Crimea) and limited north of Charkov. Russia "supported" Ukraine-Russians with artillery, air force, intel, special forces...Ukraine did find a weak spot and exploited it east of Charkov...

DJ-So what is next ? 

Will the "S.M.O."Special Military Operation switch to full war ? Would that only change the name ? 

DJ-All out war would see massive air strikes, missile attacks all over Ukraine...For that matter the succesfull Ukraine offensive east of Charkov is yet another escalation...Russia will react...very likely send in massive numbers of Russian forces...

Ukraine may have had "western help" going further then only weapons and intel...So far only limited info on NATO special forces (US,UK, Poland) did see the news...NATO will have played the major role in the Charkov offensive...maybe going as far as air support...

So do we already see further escalation of the RIC-NATO war ? [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/u-s-communications-satellite-galaxy-11-breaking-up-in-orbit[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/u-s-communications-satellite-galaxy-11-breaking-up-in-orbit ???

[url]https://southfront.org/briefing-by-the-chief-of-the-radiation-chemical-and-biological-protection-troops-of-the-armed-forces-of-the-russian-federation-lieutenant-general-igor-kirillov/[/url] or https://southfront.org/briefing-by-the-chief-of-the-radiation-chemical-and-biological-protection-troops-of-the-armed-forces-of-the-russian-federation-lieutenant-general-igor-kirillov/ on the diplomatic front Russian claim on US bio-labs in Ukraine...

The Iran-deal talks failed [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-european-criticism-of-nuclear-demands-unconstructive-takes-zionist-path/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-european-criticism-of-nuclear-demands-unconstructive-takes-zionist-path/ ...US selling weapons to Taiwan, Pakistan...

DJ-I would love to see an end to war....people killing eachother in lots of different ways is the opposite of humanity...We are able to kill more people in a shorter time then ever before...Even China-with its limited nuclear arsenal can "kill the world"...However "bevause we can" is NOT a reason to do it...

My best hope is that there is a "third party" trying to bring Russia-US talks to end this war....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2022 at 1:35am

The propaganda coming out of russia is hilarious and as usual makes no sense. But puppets will be puppets...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2022 at 1:46am








Russian propaganda TG channels not only started to call Russian Kharkiv defeat “a catastrophe”, but some also call Putin “idiot”, use slur “Pynya” to call him, and regret that Putin was not stopped in 2008. I would not say it is a sign of immediate revolt, but it is tectonic. 1/2


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This week, a group of council deputies in Petersburg called to impeach Putin for “high treason“ amid the war. Of course it is a naive step, but a year ago it was unthinkable. This shows how weak is Russia. When it collapses - it will come as a surprise and take weeks like 1917/91
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2022 at 2:09am

Institute for the Study of War: Ukrainian retake more territory in 5 days than Russia since April. Ukraine has “penetrated Russian lines" up to 70 kilometers and taken over 3,000 square km since Sept. 6, covering more territory than in all Russian operations since April. 

Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is also reportedly “routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis.”

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2022 at 2:14am

DJ, 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/the-izium-withdrawal-a-catalyst-for-starting-in-earnest.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/the-izium-withdrawal-a-catalyst-for-starting-in-earnest.html ;

The biggest opponents to Putin's policies are the nationalist, not the 'western' favored 'liberal' clowns like Navalny. The nationalists can be found on the political left, right and center. They are not well organized but have a voice throughout the political spectrum. (The former President Dimitri Medvedev currently plays to that audience.) The nationalists even have a voice in public media.

Here are Gilbert Doctorow's observations of their recent position discussed in prominent Russian talk shows:

For his part, Vladimir Solovyov went beyond presentation of the threat posed by the United States and its allies to analysis of Russia’s possible response. He spoke at length, and we may assume that what he was saying had the direct approval of the Kremlin, ..
...
So, what did Solovyov have to say? First, that Ramstein marked a new stage in the war, because of the more threatening nature of the weapons systems announced for delivery, such as missiles with accuracy of 1 to 2 meters when fired from distances of 20 or 30 kilometers thanks to their GPS-guided flight, in contrast to the laser-guided missiles delivered to Ukraine up till now. In the same category, there are weapons designed to destroy the Russians’ radar systems used for directing artillery fire. Second, that Ramstein marked the further expansion of the coalition or holy crusade waging war on Russia. Third, that in effect this is no longer a proxy war but a real direct war with NATO and should be prosecuted with appropriate mustering of all resources at home and abroad.

Said Solovyov, Russia should throw off constraints and destroy the Ukrainian dual use infrastructure which makes it possible to move Western weapons across the country to the front. The railway system, the bridges, the electricity generating stations all should become fair targets. Moreover, Kiev should no longer be spared missile strikes and destruction of the ministries and presidential apparatus responsible for prosecution of the war. I note that these ideas were aired on the Solovyov program more than a month ago but then disappeared from view while the Russians were making great gains on the ground. The latest setbacks and the new risks associated with the Western policies set out at Ramstein bring them to the surface again.

The recent Ramstein meeting promised "long term assistance" to the Ukraine and announced weapon transfers of new quality.

In the view of the nationalists in Russia it requires a response. Russia, in their view, needs to escalate.

The Kremlin was and is extremely averse to Russian casualties. In this war it prioritizes Russian lives over everything else. That has worked well during the first months of the war. In my estimate the Russian casualties so far were about one tenth of the Ukrainian ones. But the Ukrainian leadership has never cared about casualty numbers. The issue thus does not really matter to it.

Russia had set out to 'demilitarize' and to 'denazify' the Ukraine. The main geographic priority was to liberate the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. The land corridor to Crimea, and the very Russian city of Mariupol, were also important targets.

The demilitarization, mostly by long range weapons, has worked well. The Ukraine no longer has a defense industry. The de-nazification is an ongoing process. The fascist 'nationalist' units like the Azov battalions and their brethren in the Kraken and other groups have been decimated.

The first phase of the war was about pushing the Ukrainian government into an early agreement. The threat to Kiev was designed to achieve that. It nearly worked. At the end of March Kiev agreed to fulfill Russian demands. Then Boris Johnson was sent to push for prolonging the war to "weaken Russia". The Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski has since obeyed that order.

Russia pulled back from Kiev and started phase two of the war. Since then the Luhansk oblast and the land corridor to Crimea, especially Mariupol, have been won. The liberation of the Donetsk Republic has stalled. The number of Russian and allied forces fighting the war was kept steady or even decreased over time. Meanwhile the Ukrainian forces have grown manifold. They are getting a very significant amount of arms from 'western' sources and new promises to keep those supplies coming. Even when they are armed to a lesser degree, higher numbers of men do matter over time.

This made potentially costly defeats, like recently at the Izium front, possible. The Russian military has readjusted to this threat by decreasing the held territory and by concentrating on the original aims of the war.

The Russian public, which at first did not fully understand why the war was necessary, has since grown in its awareness. It now understands the big game that is played against its country. It demands to adjust the level of resources put into the war to the one needed for a decisive victory.

That is why Dima concludes that: "We can say that today was the best ever [..] day for the Russians in the territory of Ukraine."

It is now likely assured that they will be liberated. One way or another.

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-counter-offensive-so-far-more-than-4-000-dead-in-two-days[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-counter-offensive-so-far-more-than-4-000-dead-in-two-days

Upward of seventy-five-thousand (75,000) additional Russian troops are on the move.   Those troops came from Russia's Eastern Military District, all the way out by Vladivostok, and were moved to the Moscow area over the past three weeks.  Initially, it was thought that these troops would be used in normal troop rotation.  However, it NOW appears that Ukraine's counter-offensive may have resulted in re-tasking of those troops to the front as reinforcements.

When that body of troops arrives in theater, it will not only tip the scale to Russia's advantage, it will flop the scale to Russia's advantage.

DJ, The Ukraine war will further escalate....

-Western/Ukraine propaganda in the coming days will repeat claims of Russian mass murders-most likely the result of Ukraine neo-nazi's killing all those that may have worked with Russia in the area's now under Ukraine control...

-There will be a lot of public opinion pressure in Russia to regain control over those lost area's to save the ethnic Russians...

-The conflict between NATO/west and RIC/rest will widen...Israel seeking NATO support for strikes on Iran, US sending more weapons to Taiwan (as far as is possible...US high tech weapons may need chips/parts/raw materials from China/Russia). 

-As described in the MoA article; Russia may attack civilian infrastructure, administration...so far it limited that kind of warfare...

So if the goal is peace, end-of-war, we moved further away from it....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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NEW: The #Ukrainian counteroffensive in #Kharkiv Oblast is routing #Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern #Donbas axis. /1 The latest with https://isw.pub/RusCampaignSept10


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2022 at 2:56am

DJ, 

In a further update [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTRZ0gGc1U8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTRZ0gGc1U8 Weeb Union reporting Ukraine gains in the Kherson offensive...One of the comments here;One thing that would be really nice to have to give context is numbers. I know such information is really hard to get, but they would be helpful. I've heard anything from 500-700 thousand soldiers are involved in this on the Ukrainian side. The Russians are defending with 200-210 thousand along the entire length of the front here. With a 3-fold advantage in men, Ukraine can find the weak points where Russia has relatively few men and just flood the place. This appears to be what they're doing, and Russia's just going to pull back until it has better odds for fighting rather than risk losing things stupidly. If we knew how many men were involved in these pushes, it might be helpful to give context as to why Russia is retreating. Are they being beaten horribly or is this a strategic retreat under cover of their artillery? It's hard to say with just the social media reports.  Thank you for compiling this information. It's much better than what we're getting on any mainstream news outlet. I also appreciate the effort as being unbiased and only presenting the data.

DJ...one of the MoA comments from a Russian in Moscow; 

Thank you ( b ) rarely read such a detailed summary !
I follow some blog and 3 telegram channels, but mostly nothing comes from them without taking sides and partly glorifying them!
Yes, it's true, contrary to all reports in the Western media, not only does the majority of the population support the SMO, but the voices are getting louder, more forces to use more weapons!
But, don't forget one thing... the danger of NATO escalating at the Finnish border is not small, which would almost automatically involve Belarus in a real war!
The Russian public also sees this as a real danger, at least in discussions among colleagues and neighbors! Incidentally... came through that the Chinese forces that took part in the maneuvers have not YET left Russia ??
Putin, our leadership is getting more and more pressure from ALL directions to finally come clean with NATO in Ukraine, it's just not communicated that way in the media. An attempt is made to appease these increasing opinions!
Many reservists, some of whom are Syrian fighters, are giving up their jobs and volunteering, the problem for some is that they are not allowed to because they are mostly industry professionals who are needed.
A relatively large number of women also report, which was little knowledge in Russia and there are pure women battalions!
What do I want to say with my comment (first here)?
The mood in Russia is more positive towards the SMO than it is portrayed in the media, on the contrary, the anti-NATO mood is becoming more aggressive, not only in large parts of the military leadership, but also among the people!
The SMO is not hidden, which we can already see here in Moscow from the fact that hundreds of military vehicles driving equipment mostly at night through Moscow and being relocated. Last night we counted about 700 of them, but we don't know where they were moved to? Is it now escalating in Ukraine = NATO? Many demand it, some call for moderation...but all say it must end before winter! Since a winter standstill would only serve to upgrade and plan! Oh yes, many fugitive Ukrainians IN Moscow are demonstrating for an escalation! Yes, there are plenty of these refugees in Moscow and on the outskirts!
I am trying to machine translate these words... sorry if some of them sound a bit strange.
Greetings from Moscow, I hope to have contributed something to the mood and opinion here in Russia...I read very little about that in your blog.
Except for some "clever Americans" who don't know anything about the Russian mentality, some East Germans who have a hunch, many Westerners who find Russia on the map here, but know everything?
It should be said to them that every sanction and every fallen Russian brings us closer together!

Posted by: oleg | Sep 11 2022 7:44 utc | 6

DJ...based on Russia media a lot of Russians may support further escalation....[url]https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/11-september-explosions-reported-in-voznesensk-of-mykolaiv[/url] or https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/11-september-explosions-reported-in-voznesensk-of-mykolaiv wich maybe could start today...september 11...(1973 US coup in Chile, 2011 US terror attacks). 

Another MoA comment; 

The Kremlin was and is extremely averse to Russian casualties. In this war it prioritizes Russian lives over everything else.

This is always true. Whatever the collective west says, RF forces, earlier the Soviet forces, always cared for the soldiers' lives. A Russian soldier is a part of a family, and the life a family member is valued, so has to be safeguarded. A piece of terrain can be regained, but a dead soldier cannot!

DJ, there were some claims North Korea offered 100,000 soldiers for this war....I think Russia is able to fight in winter(conditions) may be interested in both;

-ending this war, avoiding another "never ending war"/Afghanistan scenario

-making a very clear point to the west...[url]https://southfront.org/us-led-coalition-wants-to-deploy-air-defense-systems-in-syrias-al-tanf-monitoring-group/[/url] or https://southfront.org/us-led-coalition-wants-to-deploy-air-defense-systems-in-syrias-al-tanf-monitoring-group/

The US-led coalition wants to deploy air-defense systems at al-Tanf garrison in the southeastern region of Syria, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported on September 10.

“The international coalition is preparing to deploy anti-drone air-defense batteries at al-Tanf garrison amid threats from Iranian-backed militias,” the London-based monitoring group said in its report.

Some 200 US troops are usually deployed at al-Tanf. The coalition maintains a 55-kilometer no-fly zone around the garrison, which was established in 2016. The large garrison blocks a strategic highway between the Syrian capital, Damascus, and the Iraqi capital, Baghdad.

Earlier, the SOHR reported that the US-led coalition had placed its troops in al-Tanf on high-alert out of fear of a new attack by Iranian-backed forces in Syria and Iraq. Coalition warplanes were also spotted flying over the 55-kilometers zone.

DJ, Syria, Iraq want US forces out of their countries...now also talks on a new Iran deal failed, the "west" further escalated the Ukraine war, Iran, Russia may join forces to get the US out of Syria and Iraq...Türkiye wants to limit the Kurds...

[url]https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1274853.shtml[/url] or https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1274853.shtml ;

China will strengthen cooperation with Russia and work together with other members of the international community to boost the multipolarization of the world, Chinese experts said, as the 7th Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) is being  held in Vladivostok, Russia. Russia also harshly criticized Western sanctions against it over the Ukraine crisis as they have brought great damage to everyone around the world including their own people in the West.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday at the forum that "the West is failing, the future is in Asia." Western nations are hurting everyone, including their own people, in an attempt to preserve global dominance that is slipping from their hands, Putin noted.

He also said that efforts to isolate Russia were in vain amid a pivot toward Asia, media reported.

DJ, Russia-Iran-China (RIC) are strategic allies...Syria, North Korea could be willing to further escalate...

I notice some western media think Ukraine is about to win the war...I would love to see an end to wars...Again-all indications are in the other-escalation-direction...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2022 at 5:56am

ANASTASIIA KALATUR — SUNDAY, 11 SEPTEMBER 2022, 07:00

Due to casualties on the front, the Russian authorities are planning to carry out the "mobilisation" of the male population in the temporarily occupied territories. Men have been forbidden to leave populated areas.

Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Details: The occupying authorities are strengthening administrative and police measures in the temporarily occupied territories of Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts. Entry to and exit from settlements are prohibited, and a curfew has been introduced.

Searches of residential premises were conducted in the Skhidnyi microdistrict in the city of Kherson, from which the Antonivka Road Bridge can be seen. Russian troops warned local residents of Nova Kakhovka and Kozatske that they would shoot to kill if the locals approached the crossings.

During the day [of 10 September], the enemy launched 16 missile and 34 airstrikes, affecting 28 settlements, including Slavhorod, Velyka Pysarivka, Velyki Prokhody, Avdiivka, Nevelske, Marinka, Neskuchne, Velyka Novosilka, Dnipro and Bruskinske.

In the vicinity of Kharkiv, enemy units from the 3rd Motorised Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army were left without supply routes, and the personnel were in a state of panic.

We have launched English Twitter! Follow us!

Numerous Russian casualties were reported in the said vicinity. Over 75 wounded Russian soldiers were brought to Valuyki in Belgorod Oblast of the Russian Federation, and over a hundred Russian occupiers were evacuated from Belgorod to Moscow.

The situation on the Volyn and Polissia fronts has not changed significantly.

The Russian forces fired from tanks, mortars, tube and rocket artillery in following areas:

  • on the Siverskyi front - near Bilopillia, Lynove, and Hrabovske, Sumy Oblast;
  • on the Kharkiv front - in the areas of the settlements of Liutivka, Tymofiivka, Dementiivka, Zolochiv, Sosnivka, Pytomnyk, Ruski Tyshky, Cherkaski Tyshky and Borshchova;
  •  on the Sloviansk front - in and around the settlements of Sloviansk, Dolyna, Krasnopillia, Velyka Komyshuvakha, Dovhenke and Dmytrivka;
  • on the Kramatorsk front - in the areas of the settlements of Kryva Luka, Pyskunivka, Sydorove and Rozdolivka;
  •  on the Bakhmut front - in the areas of the settlements of Vesela Dolyna, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Bakhmut, Yakovlivka, Bilohorivka and Vesele;
  • on the Avdiivka front - near Avdiivka, Opytne, Vodiane, Pervomaiske, Karlivka and Krasnohorivka;
  •  on the Novopavlivka front - near Velyki Novosilky, Shevchenko, Vuhledar and Marinka;
  •  on the Zaporizhzhia front - in the areas of the settlements of Huliaipole, Rivnopillia, Novosilka, Vilne Pole, Chervone and Malynivka;
  • on the Pivdennyi Buh front - in the areas of the settlements Myrne, Stepova Dolyna, Bila Krynytsia, Sukhyi Stavok, Liubomyrivka, Bezimenne and Nova Zoria.

Ukrainian Defence forces repelled enemy attacks in the areas of the settlements Sosnivka, Maiorsk, Mykolaivka Druha, Zaitseve, Vesela Dolyna, Soledar, Bakhmut, Pisky, Pervomaiske and Novomykhailivka.

Ukrainian Air Forces launched 23 strikes. Four air defence systems were destroyed, 4 strong points and 15 places where Russian manpower and equipment were concentrated were hit. In addition, Ukrainian air defence units destroyed two jet aircraft (Su-25 and Su-34), a Ka-52 helicopter, two UAVs and one guided air missile.

Two unmanned aerial vehicle control points, various strong points, and places where the Russian army’s weapons and military equipment were concentrated were also affected. A pontoon crossing and Russian vessels carrying military equipment came under Ukrainian fire.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2022 at 6:36am

⚡️ Russia admits its troops were pushed back from almost entire Kharkiv Oblast. The Russian Defense Ministry published a video showing that Ukraine’s Armed Forces knocked out the Russian forces from the north of Kharkiv Oblast.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2022 at 6:37am

The Institute for the Study of War earlier said that Ukrainian forces have “penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers” and taken over 3,000 square kilometers since Sept. 6, liberating more territory than Russia captured since April.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2022 at 8:24am
A Russian military column fleeing Kupyansk for Svatove was caught by Ukrainian MLRS near Kyslivka. Severe casualties on the Russian side. Ukrainian forces continue pushing east, its a matter of time before they reach Svatove.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2022 at 8:49am

[url]https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/11-september-ukrainian-forces-reached-dvorichna[/url] or https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/11-september-ukrainian-forces-reached-dvorichna it looks like Russia pulling back east of the river...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/covert-intel-declaration-of-war-coming[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/covert-intel-declaration-of-war-coming behind a paywall...would not be surprised if Russia now goes for all out war with Ukraine...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIcxTZrP9U8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIcxTZrP9U8 Weeb Union; Russian forces north of Charkov pulled back into Russia-civilians allowed to go with them...

A war has no winners...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 11 2022 at 11:09pm

DJ, 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4rYrFxkxl4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4rYrFxkxl4 Military Summary (MS) describing Russia had to pull back reservers from the Charkov area (starting it before the Ukraine offensive) to have enough military in the south. Russia expected an Ukraine offensive in the direction of Mariupol. MS thinks Ukraine wanted to pin down Russian forces in the Charkov area so those forces could not be used in the south of Ukraine...in that view Russia getting most of its military out of the Charkov area could be seen as a Russian succes...

A comment;

if this analysis holds true, than we can deduct two things from it: 1) The Ukrainians have received a lot more equipment than publicly admitted, to the point that they were able to bring material to the frontlines AND equip large assault forces in the back. It may also be that the reports about rampant corruption in the armed forces were overblown and perhaps deliberately planted in order to conceal the collection process for the offensives. 2) The Russian forces in Ukraine are too low in manpower to fulfill their tasks. Yes, the annexation of the occupied territories would bring in conscripts for hold and defend these territories, so that the active forces could attack somewhere else, but the new operations there would again take a lot of time and then the Ukrainians would try to do the same as they do now, but perhaps with even more weapons delivered by NATO. The Ukrainians seek success in numbers, no matter how many soldiers have to be sacrificed, and use the terrain and the shorter inner lines to their advantage, to stretch Russian forces thin and overwhelm them. I see why Moscow is still refusing to mobilize at least partially, but in the not too distant future, there might be a point where the Ukrainians can equip enough soldiers to overcome the resistance and achieve their offensive strategic goals, if NATO provides them with enough support.

[url]https://southfront.org/ukrainian-forces-prepare-new-large-scale-offensive-in-ugledar-region-reports/[/url] or https://southfront.org/ukrainian-forces-prepare-new-large-scale-offensive-in-ugledar-region-reports/ 

MS claims Russia has to move its forces via Russia from Charkov to Kherson-no shorter route, not enough airlift ? 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5hes7o7WEM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5hes7o7WEM Weeb Union (WU) what an all out war scenario would look like...

DJ-Basic point by both MS and WU is Russia keeps high risk fighting as much as possible to non-Russians (for public support reasons...) so less/in-trained militia made up of Russian Ukrainians are confronted with 750,000/1 million Ukraine military (?)...pro-Russian forces around 200,000 ???

Another point, so far Russia tried to "limit the war" because they had the view Ukraine citizens are "Russian"...Russia is fighting nazi/nato...not the Ukraine citizens...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-russia-launches-massive-missile-barrage-hitting-power-plants-for-first-time[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-russia-launches-massive-missile-barrage-hitting-power-plants-for-first-time Russia now trying to knock out power, infrastructure etc. all over Ukraine...Russia has clear air/artillery/missile superiority, Ukraine by now may have more soldiers willing to take risks...

-What will be next ? 

DJ-I think Russia may go on with air/missile strikes for some days...trying to destroy not only the Ukraine army but also the infrastructure needed for that army to move...Another goal most likely will be to deny Ukraine extra supplies...

Some risks;

-NATO most likely has "lots of military" in Ukraine now running increased risks

-Poland-Ukraine border more or less open; Polish police did take over job of Ukraine police in western Ukraine, Poland itself may have "thousends of militia" fighting on the Ukraine side..

-Further Russian escalation will bring a NATO escalation; the west may run out of military hardware for ground war...increased risk of NATO airdefenses getting involved in this war...

-Perspectives on other frontlines Syria,Iraq, Kosovo, East Asia only getting worse...

DJ-All together we take another step towards "major global war"...very unwelcome & unwise...

We had arms agreements between the west and the Soviet Union/Russia, we had an Iran-deal...both were given up by the US under trump...biden however did not undo that damage...At the end most conflicts end in talks...those talks could have prevented those wars bringing scars to generations...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2022 at 1:33am

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#Kharkiv Update: Geolocated footage also shows that #Ukrainian forces took control of #Izyum and settlements south and southwest on September 11. /3 https://iswresearch.or
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2022 at 1:35am

#Kharkiv Update: #Russian troops likely withdrew from the area in great haste, and social media posts show abandoned tanks and other heavy military equipment near #Izyum, which indicates that Russian troops failed to organize a coherent retreat. /4 https://iswresearch.org

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Ukrainian forces have targeted Kherson's Antonovsky Bridge once again. There are local reports of Russian troops surrendering en masse on the Kherson front.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2022 at 1:47am
Just a quick reminder that the russians (Not just Putin, the russians) murdered little Lucy and hundreds of thousands more. They are utter scum and the World needs to be free of them. NO MERCY!!!!! #SlavaUkraini #KharkivOffensive #KhersonOffensive #Russians


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You don't negotiate with terrorists, you eliminate them. 









From a military perspective, this is just one of thousands of things Russia has done in the last six months that makes absolutely no sense…unless they were just intent on committing war crimes.
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Oleksiy Sorokin

@mrsorokaa
 · 
Today Russia fired 12 missiles, worth nearly $100 million in total (according to Forbes Ukraine), to shutdown electricity in four Ukrainian regions for several hours. Meanwhile, millions of Russians still don’t have a sewerage.
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Interesting admission from Russian "Vostok" battalion commander Aleksandr Khodakovsy who, discussing potential mobilisation, says it's not going to solve essential issues including lack of reconnaissance, EW, and lack of manpower is a more minor issue. https://t.me/aleksandr_skif/2376


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2022 at 9:32am








Ukrainian Su-27s getting in on the SEAD mission, carrying a mix of A2A and anti-radiation missiles.








Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ

@CalibreObscura
Very nice images of a Sukhoi Su-27S of the Ukrainian Air force armed with not just AGM-88[B/C] HARM anti-radar missiles, but R-27R and R-73 AAMs. Very multirole.


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Russian air defenses have absolutely faced degradation in the face of continued Ukrainian attacks, allowing Ukrainian assets to contest the airspace over portions of the frontline. The Russian Air Force was noticeably absent in Kharkiv Oblast over the last week.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2022 at 10:11am

Municipal deputies in 18 Moscow and St. Petersburg districts demand Putin's resignation

In eighteen municipal districts of Moscow and Saint Petersburg, deputies have signed a public demand for Russian president Vladimir Putin to step down from his post.

“We, the municipal deputies of Russia, believe that the actions of its president Vladimir Putin are detrimental to Russia’s and its citizens’ future. We demand Vladimir Putin's resignation from the post of the President of the Russian Federation,” reads the demand, as published by Ksenia Thorstrom, a municipal deputy of the Semenovsky District in Saint Petersburg.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2022 at 5:33pm

DEEP STRIKE: Major explosions rocked the RU air station at Taganrog, followed by a number of secondaries & fires. Russian AWACs, including the including the newest A-100 platforms, are forward deployed at Taganrog. This strike will negatively affect RU air defense in the region.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2022 at 9:32pm

DJ, 

Sources a.o. Moon of Alabama (moA), Alexander Mercouris (AM), Military Summary (MS)..

Complex situation;

-A basic point to start with; Russia wants to protect "Russian Ukrainians" in Ukraine-however also limit exposure of Russian military...has a basic view of Ukraine being Russian...

-MS claims Ukraine may have up to 1 million "soldiers" (from logistics to fighting on frontlines), on the pro-Russian side that number may be 150,000-200,000 so far..

-However Russia (so far) had superiority (more, "better") weapons, missiles, artillery air force

-Since Russia wanted to see Ukraine as "sort of Russian" it did not go for large scale attacks on civilian infra structure...

Recent changes;

-Russia pulled back forces from the Charkov region; high risk/limited use/gains-those forces were needed on more strategic parts of Ukraine under Russian control (Mariupol)

-Ukraine moved into the area Russia gave up...claimed it as a major victory...

-Both in Charkov and in the south/Kherson Russian artillery did kill possibly up to 7,000 Ukraine military-of 30,000 fresh NATO trained elite used (15,000 in Kherson, 15,000 in Charkov) in the Ukraine(NATO) offensive

-In reaction Russia attacked powergrid-now it is clear the goal was to stop and destroy military train transports (no doubt killing another hundreds of Ukraine soldiers...) 

(Most likely this war so far did see over 100,000 Ukraine military killed, on the pro-Russian side the losses are much more limited; 10/20,000. Civilian losses may also be limited-however "filtering" may see secret police killing civilians-very likely on both sides...). 

-We now see Ukraine (?) attacks deeper inside Russia...so escalation is going on here..

NATO

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/the-end-approaches-for-ukraine-as-germany-refuses-tank-supply[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/the-end-approaches-for-ukraine-as-germany-refuses-tank-supply

German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht on Monday rejected demands to supply Kyiv with main battle tanks.

"No country has delivered Western-built infantry fighting vehicles or main battle tanks so far," she said in Berlin.

"We have agreed with our partners that Germany will not take such action unilaterally."

DJ, Most weapons until recent going into Ukraine were older Soviet era weapons from east European countries-once Warsaw pact members;

-Ukraine had knowledge/spare parts to use them

-Eastern European countries wanted to get rid of them-often getting more modern western weapons in return..

In the last months Ukraine did get more modern western weapons;

-Ukraine military had had some basic training

-Western advisors/instructors (HIMARS !) most likely in Ukraine

However the massive flow of NATO countries weapons into Ukraine had major problems;

-Getting it to the frontline from (most Poland) NATO territory is a stretch up to a 1,000 kilometers-with rail/roads under Russian aircontrol ...lots of transports/storage places were destroyed..

-Corruption, selling those weapons on the black market-maybe sometimes for good reasons (selling weapons they can not use to buy weapons they need) also was/is a problem

-Weapons in untrained hands not only may cause waste of those weapons, also risk of accidents...

Where are we now ?

Russian strategy has been destroying the Ukraine army...so far they were succesfull in doing so-with very limited risks for their own forces..

The fighting most is done by Ukraine-Russians from Luhansk, Donetsk and now in a "third army" made up of all kinds of volunteers (60,000 soldiers on top of the 150/200,000). 

Growing unease in Russia over the duration of this "Special Military Operation"(SMO) ...it is taking to long. The plan in february most likely was a short campain-NATO escalation was not expected...(maybe some Russians hoped for an uprising in Ukraine against zelensky...) 

Next;

-Russia may go for further escalation-certainly in reaction on attacks in Russia it self...So very likely more attacks on Ukraine military transports, railroads and Ukraine/NATO command centers...

-Again NATO is over its ears in this war, via "advisors/instructors" to intel, command, drone-pilots etc. inside Ukraine. With special forces, mercenaries, volunteers from as good as all NATO countries also on the frontline-they are more likely to become a target. 

-Escalation of other wars..

end of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 12 2022 at 10:32pm

DJ, 

The idea that the "west-rest"war can have "winners"is-at best-"primitive", an underestimate of the seize of the-global-conflict...The only way out is talks, compromise, allow each other some gains against some price...That sense of reality is -sadly- still missing in the west..

In short the western goal is control over energy, resources, currencies...global economy. A "global"NATO fits in such a plan..."the rest"-90% of the global population only can see that as a continuation of (neo)colonialism based on racism and total lack of respect...from Saudi Arabia, Brazil to India, Malaysia...they have had enough...

On that basis "the west" can not win...however that "west" has nuclear weapons, an air/military force able to strike around the globe within a day...the west is keeping the rest poor at gunpoint...

Other wars;

-[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/large-scale-fighting-breaks-out-between-armenia-azerbaijan[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/large-scale-fighting-breaks-out-between-armenia-azerbaijan ;

Update (2305ET): The overnight outbreak of fighting in multiple spots along the Armenian-Azerbaijan border is serious enough for Yerevan to have asked for its powerful ally Russia's help. This has been revealed hours after Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held a late night telephone conversation with President Vladimir Putin. The Armenian government has since confirmed it has requested Russian military assistance to repel Azerbaijan aggression and shelling, according to a statement (machine translation):

"During the meeting, further steps were discussed to counter the aggressive actions of Azerbaijan against the sovereign territory of Armenia that began at midnight. In connection with the aggression against the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia, it was decided to officially appeal to the Russian Federation in order to implement the provisions of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, as well as to the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the UN Security Council. 

Armenia is basing the request on the Collective Security Treaty Organization pact it has with Russia, and under which Russia previously sent peacekeeping forces to Nagorno-Karabakh after the Fall 2020 conflict. 

DJ..it is no coincidence this conflict started after talks on the Iran deal failed...Azerbaijan borders (close to) Iran, Türkiye...Armenia is a Russian ally...In the past both Azerbaijan and Armenia tried to get better ties with the west...Azerbaijan even may have had Israeli/US planes meant to keep an eye on Iran..The Caspian Sea-in the east of Azarbaijan-is a major transport route for Russia-Iran-India trade...

Since Russia, Iran, Türkiye-the main players in the region- all need to limit this conflict the outcome here will be another ceasefire soon...

-[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/military/xi-poised-build-support-taiwan-reunification-4-top-military-picks[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/military/xi-poised-build-support-taiwan-reunification-4-top-military-picks DJ-China is following Russian intervention in Ukraine "with great interests"...Taiwan did send drones to Ukraine...Taiwan chips are used in western weapons...

Russia and China see reunification of Taiwan with China, a united Korea, as in their interests...One country-two systems was not "a major succes" in Hong Kong...all out war, invasion of Taiwan will do to much damage for China's global reputation...(DJ-The US may try to stop such an invasion...however for now may not be able to do so...) 

Further worsening of the "west-rest" relations (western sanction on India, China for doing trade with Russia, NATO attack on Iran..) however could "open doors"...

-[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israeli-pm-lapid-announces-berlin-iran-nuclear-talks-are-dead[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israeli-pm-lapid-announces-berlin-iran-nuclear-talks-are-dead ; In yet more confirmation that the long-running attempt to reach a restored JCPOA Iran nuclear deal has failed, a senior Israeli official representing Prime Minister Yair Lapid on Monday declared that Iran talks are "dead"

DJ...Israel claiming talks on a new Iran-deal are "dead" was during a visit to Berlin...Since Saudi Arabia made a choice for OPEC+/BRICS Israel needs other allies against Iran...Iran did take the side of Russia in the Ukraine War...Israel supports Ukraine (and wants "things" in return"...

-Lots of other frontlines...

Syria/Iraq both governments want US forces out...ask "foreign" support for that goal...Russia, Iran, Türkiye may provide such support...

Kosovo-NATO created aganist Serbia...with "the west" increasing pressure on (a.o) Serbia to "change its stand" on doing trade with Russia, China...(Hungary may even move closer to the Serbian side...). 

Lots of other conflicts in Africa, Latin America, Asia...

Economic war;

AM mentioned Ukraine on its way to economic collapse...Ukraine getting 7 billion US$ per month-some claim-from "the west" to keep that "country" going...The US would not mind if Ukraine-Poland once had plans-introduced the Euro....

DJ-Western "leaders" lead the west to destruction....I believe in a balanced energy policy...on the long run we have to minimize fossil fuels...Keeping Russian fossil energy from EU economies are destroying EU (and UK) economies....A transfer to renewable sources-a mix-energy sources takes years...

The present sanction war is pushing inflation up high speed-and we are only at the start of that process...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poland_and_the_euro[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poland_and_the_euro Poland has a "complicated relationship" with the EU...at least the catholic extremist government-rural supported-has...Since Poland "almost united" with Ukraine (the Polish-Ukrainian history is a story on its own !) and Ukraine was welcomed by the EU I would not be surprised if "Poland joined the Euro only when also Ukraine can join the Euro"....

DJ-As an idea the Euro once was "great"...however in practice European countries/economies are much different. Greece trade/export is totally different from that of NL...The Euro is used in Kosovo, Zimbabwe...even to a certain level in Venezuela...countries in crisis...Introducing the Euro as support to Ukraine could crash that Euro...

Maybe some economists believe that is a good idea; European exports-facing very high energy costs-could benefit from a very weak/cheap Euro...Weak spot in that idea is to where the EU would/could export what goods ? Could a car-industry survive in the EU on such a basis ? Can EU citizens survive at such-hyperinflation-basis ? 

-The days of the US-petro-dollar are over....

However the US did become the largest oil producer worldwide-most of it used/wasted for own consumption...Fracking is a high risk way of getting oil...European demand for US energy "is high"...wiser use of US energy inside the US "is more then welcome"....still the US$ in global trade is being "kicked out" by "the rest"...India, China, Türkiye want to use their own-or BRICS-currencies for energy deals with Russia, Saudi Arabia...

Using the US$ for global trade was a way to keep "the west rich, the rest poor"...One of the US goals in present foreign policy may be to "limit the Euro" ...

DJ-It could be a strategic move-possibly by BRICS-to start (also) using the Euro as their currency;

-Could solve disagreements on a BRICS alternative for the US$

-May pull the EU to the BRICS side-away from the US, so split the west...

-The Euro already is used worldwide...also in French overseas departments...after the US$ the most widespread currency

-The ECB is supposed to control the Euro...not one country...

We live in interesting times...I hope we soon may see an end to wars...the most horrorble thing people can do to eachother...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2022 at 2:56am

As Ukraine counterattacks, Russia’s military facing steep artillery, resupply challenges

Even before this weeks' gains by Ukraine, there were signs that Russia's artillery is wearing down, and that it is running low on munitions - potentially limiting Moscow's options.

WARSAW — The rapid success of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in recent days has left Russian forces retreating and yet more videos on social media of abandoned tanks and artillery units. And for Russia, every piece of hardware destroyed or abandoned on the battlefield underlines a growing consensus among Russia watchers that Moscow’s losses of both personnel and equipment in Ukraine are reaching a potential breaking point.

In discussions with Breaking Defense and in public writings, analysts particularly point to industrial challenges facing Russia’s military. Six months into what was expected to be a quick strike campaign, facing a Ukraine push that has reportedly liberated the key Russian logistics hub of Izium, Russia’s ability to resupply for its own counter is deeply in question.

Pavel Luzin, a Russian defense sector analyst from the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), has compared Moscow’s declining production in the defense industrial sector and sinking manpower levels with the rate of consumption of munitions and personnel losses in the war in Ukraine. He came to the inescapable conclusion that the Russian war machine will soon be unable to function due to a lack of both.

“For Russia, six months of war have led not only to colossal irreplaceable losses in manpower, but also to a huge waste of weapons and military equipment: guided missiles are already very scarce, shells for artillery and armored vehicles will be exhausted by the end of the year, and the state of military aviation precludes a full-scale air campaign,” Luzin wrote in an Aug. 30 analysis. “Because of the sanctions, Russia cannot continue full industrial production of weapons and replenish its arms stockpiles, which are rapidly running out.”

There are plenty of anecdotes to back up the idea that Russia is having a hard time keeping its forces supplied. One recent video shows two Ukrainian soldiers inspecting a Russian T-80BVM model tank produced at the Omsk plant. They reveal that none of the reactive armor compartments were loaded with the explosive charges that are supposed to detonate and destroy an incoming ATGM before it can penetrate the hull.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2022 at 2:58am
⚡️The Kremlin is trying to buy ammunition for Soviet artillery systems from the republics of Central Asia, - Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine.

Recently, the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation of the Russian Federation turned to the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Tajikistan with a request for the transfer of 220-mm rockets to the "Uragan" MLRS. 

The Russians are also interested in ammunition for the 203-mm self-propelled gun "Pion" and UTD-20 engines for Infantry fighting vehicle -1 and Infantry fighting vehicle -2, which are stored in large quantities in military warehouses in Tajikistan. 👉 Follow 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2022 at 4:25am








“U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russian military is just beginning”