October Pandemic

Swine flu pandemic 'in autumn'

A flu pandemic is likely to strike the UK in September or October, with the virus gathering strength as it spreads, a leading expert will say today.
Professor John Oxford, an expert in virology, said that even though only 229 cases of swine fu have been confirmed in the UK so far, he was certain of a flu pandemic which would take hold as autumn begins.

Children going back to school, universities re-opening and people returning to work after the summer break would give swine flu the "opportunity" it needs, he said.

He warned that a pandemic was likely to affect the UK before a vaccine becomes available, adding that the vaccine - which is expected to be ready in October or November - would only cover about 15 per cent of the population.

Prof Oxford, of Queen Mary School of Medicine, University of London, praised campaigns urging people to observe good hygiene - such as using tissues and not coming into contact with infected people - but said they would not halt the virus altogether.

"Problems at the moment are fairly low, with schoolchildren and the odd sporadic case in the community.

"But when children go back to school in September the virus has an opportunity, and normally it takes it.

"That's the scenario we should prepare for."

Prof Oxford said children were usually involved in an outbreak because they liked to be in close contact.

"Children are very social, they play together and put their arms around each other, they kiss each other. Also, their hygiene levels are not very high."

He added: "I view it [tackling flu] like a medieval castle, with several layers of defence: you've got the outer layer which is hygiene and social distancing, then the virus breaks through that and then we have antivirals like Tamiflu and then the final layer is the vaccine.

"You chuck all of this at the virus. You can't stop it, but you can slow it down."

Prof Oxford said there had already been sporadic cases which were not linked with anyone coming into the UK from the US or Mexico.

"That does suggest that the virus is silently spreading around," he said.

He said the current estimate that 50 per cent of the population may get infected was on the "low side".

He added: "The virus will be like a bushfire."

In order to avoid flu, people should keep their distance from others, wash their hands regularly and cough into the crook of your arm.

The World Health Organisation's current threat level of a flu pandemic is at level five. Declaration of a pandemic would move it to level six.

A spokesman for the Department of Health said: "Our strategy to slow the spread of the disease appears to have been effective, and the UK's arrangements continue to ensure that we are well-placed to deal with this new infection.

"But we must not be complacent - it is right to prepare for the possibility of a global pandemic."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine-flu/5416452/Swine-flu-pandemic-in-autumn.html

Kilt2 wrote: He said the current estimate that 50 per cent of the population may get infected was on the "low side". He added: "The virus will be like a bushfire." In order to avoid flu, people should keep their distance from others, wash their hands regularly and cough into the crook of your arm.

So he's stating that 50% of the Population being infected is on the low side ???

6.7 Billion people divided by 2 = 3.35 Billion people. Divided by the current mortality Rate of .5% = 16.7 Million Deaths. Don't forget that's based on his LOW side estimate.

Technologist wrote: 6.7 Billion people divided by 2 = 3.35 Billion people. Divided by the current mortality Rate of .5% = 16.7 Million Deaths.

  I was given to believe that even novel influenza viruses infect only about half the population at most, because our genetic diversity gives about 50% of those exposed natural immunity.
  The swine flu virus clip is too funny. Thanks for that 

jandressup wrote: "And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him." ............For those that are 'saved', They have nothing to fear......GOD is with Us.....for only flesh dies...Saved Souls are eternal..............

Go ahead and count on god to get you through a pandemic, and you will probably die. I don't fear death, but I choose to keep my flesh alive and raise my 4 year old son, so I will prepare.

Annie wrote: Technologist wrote: 6.7 Billion people divided by 2 = 3.35 Billion people. Divided by the current mortality Rate of .5% = 16.7 Million Deaths.   I think that 6.7 Billion people number should be changed to reflect the population of UK? The visual clip of the pig virus cracks me up!

This thing is worldwide and we have 6.7 billion people on the planet. You can't just count the UK. In 6 weeks it's already in 50 countries. It's spreading where flu season has long past. It's also several times more virulent compared to the normal seasonal flu's. This thing is going to circle the globe several times.


WorldWide Flu Map

...and the deaths from lack of routine medical availability or prescriptions if things get bad.

jandressup wrote: Then prepare by reading the Bible to your son and hope and pray that your souls are saved...because no flesh lives for long.....

the scripture was quoted by the professor from the UK.....John Oxford from Queen Mary School of Medicine........

Religion or no religion, this will be a nasty pandemic... I will get plenty of preps and stuff so we will not die. I really can't afford to be sick. I have a disabled GF who needs me... So I will prep as if my life depends on it because it does....

Kilt2 wrote: Swine flu pandemic 'in autumn' A flu pandemic is likely to strike the UK in September or October [2009], ... he was certain of a flu pandemic which would take hold as autumn begins. ... a vaccine ...would only cover about 15 per cent of the population. ...the current estimate that 50 per cent of the population may get infected was on the "low side". ..."The virus will be like a bushfire."

And yet, the people do not heed the warning to prepare their homes and families.

Jandressup, go back to your church and be with your own kind.Your bleeding is not wanted here.

do you really believe all that crap?  You've certainly been enlightened enough to at least try to think a little on your own.

Since the H1N1 flu is mild at this point in time, it may be better to catch it now before it mutates into something worse.  This way we would obtain some sort of immunity to it.

That's my thinking anyway.

jandressup wrote: " Therefore when you see the 'abomination of desolation' standing in the holy place....Then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains"(Christ) ...no church for me.....read your bibles.....and pray..... Also...if you're gonna stock up...stock up on large quantities on GUIAFENESIN...and whole chickens with bone...for respiratory infection, which this H1N1+H5N1 will be....breathe the vapors while cooking, and drink the broth for the natural antibiotic therapy...also add garlic and bleu cheese  to your diet, as they are also natural antibiotics......don't deep breathe in crowded situations and keep a vessel of 10% bleach to swipe surfaces daily,,,throw out the otc lysol-type brands of disenfectant.......drink lots of plain tea as it cleans the lining of the lungs....Jan...Pathology m/a

 Chicken contains an amino acid called cysteine, a substance released when you make the soup. This amino acid is similar to the drug acetylcysteine, which is prescribed by doctors to patients with bronchitis. It thins the mucus in the lungs, making it easier to cough out or expectorate. And hot chicken vapors have been proven more effective than hot water vapors in clearing out the cold in your nose and easing affected lungs in bronchitis, a secondary implication to respiratory virus infections.......Jan

lol!..as long as they are boiled, it wouldn't matter........

cool!...but as long as I gotta eat...why not anyway...so where is the pharmaceutical N-acetyl-cysteine  derived from  naturally? ... or is it synthesized...thanks...Jan

jacksdad wrote:   Jan - I saw from your profile that you have some experience in the medical field. Interesting posts and welcome aboard

Yes, ditto Jan- interesting stuff.

Medclinician

jandressup wrote: ...so where is the pharmaceutical N-acetyl-cysteine  derived from  naturally? ... or is it synthesized...thanks...Jan

I'd like to know too. My wife (along with her two brothers) has suffered with severe asthma all her life, but she's vegetarian and wouldn't be interested in the chicken derived version. If it's synthetic however (and as effective as it sounds) I'm sure she'd want to try it. She goes through so many different inhalers and is still prone to bad attacks every so often.

Acetylcysteine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia  will give you all the medical and dosage info.......copy and paste the name above in your browser..and take your pic, many info sites to choose from...I also have a certificate in RX.. and would strongly suggest upon purchase to ask your pharmacist about dosage anyway to be safe......ref:

N-acetyl cysteine (NAC) is a specially modified form of the dietary amino acid cysteine. When taken orally, NAC is thought to help the body make the important antioxidant enzyme glutathione. It has shown promise for a number of conditions, especially chronic bronchitis.

  ref:

Cysteine (abbreviated as Cys or C)^[1] is an α-amino acid with the chemical formula HO₂CCH(NH₂)CH₂SH. It is a non-essential amino acid, which means that humans can synthesize it. Its codons are UGU and UGC. With a thiol side chain, cysteine is classified as a hydrophobic amino acid. Because of the high reactivity of this thiol, cysteine is an important structural and functional component of many proteins and enzymes. Cysteine is named after cystine, its oxidized dimer.

   Thanks for that Jan.

My grandmother always saved chicken, pork and beef  bones until she had enough to make a big pot of broth...then simmered it for a few hours. She first put a couple teaspoons of vinegar  in the pot to leach out more calcium into the broth...she said it made for stronger bones in old folks like her.