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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

Omicron and ADE/Immunity

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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    Posted: November 28 2021 at 1:52am

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement ;

Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), sometimes less precisely called immune enhancement or disease enhancement, is a phenomenon in which binding of a virus to suboptimal antibodies enhances its entry into host cells, followed by its replication.[1][2] The suboptimal antibodies can result from natural infection or from vaccination. ADE may cause enhanced respiratory disease and acute lung injury after respiratory virus infection (ERD) with symptoms of monocytic infiltration and an excess of eosinophils in respiratory tract.[3] ADE along with type 2 T helper cell-dependent mechanisms may contribute to a development of the vaccine associated disease enhancement (VADE), which is not limited to respiratory disease.[3] Some vaccine candidates that targeted coronaviruses, RSV virus and Dengue virus elicited VADE, and were terminated from further development or became approved for use only for patients who had those viruses before.

DJ In short virussses using antibodies (after vaccination/infection) te spread into the body. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variantThe number of cases in the B.1.1.529 lineage is increasing throughout South Africa, mainly in the South Africa province of Gauteng.[9] Some evidence shows that this variant has an increased risk of reinfection.

DJ Only "increased risks" or are all cases reinfected ones ? 

With many countries reporting cases-some countries reporting further spread (Israel, Italy) AND often airtravel only for the vaccinated I try to see background of reported cases..were they vaccinated, did they had prior infection...Since a lot of cases may show only mild/no symptoms comminty spread in unvaccinated, persons with no prior KNOWN infection would need further testing for antibodies...

DJ I am NOT an expert...just trying to "follow the story", make up my mind...This is NOT a scientific forum...science takes time...Omicron is just a recent story...we do not know most of it yet ! 

Known cases; 

-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#History[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#History ;

All four initial cases reported from Botswana occurred among fully vaccinated individuals.[35] All three initial confirmed and suspected cases reported from Israel occurred among fully vaccinated individuals,[32] as did the single suspected case in Germany.[36]

On 27 November, two cases were detected in the United Kingdom, another two in Munich, Germany and one in Milan, Italy.[26] The Dutch health ministry estimated that 61 of the around 600 passengers on two flights from South Africa that had landed at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on 26 November (which had taken off just before the Netherlands had banned travel from South Africa) tested positive for COVID-19 of as yet unknown variants. Entry into the Netherlands (and thus getting on the flight) generally required having been vaccinated or PCR-tested, or having recovered. One of the flights originated from Johannesburg, Gauteng. Gauteng is where the Omicron variant appears to be dominant already. The passengers of both flights had been tested and quarantined upon arrival because of the newly imposed restrictions.[37]

On 28 November, two cases were detected in Sydney, Australia. Both people landed in Sydney the previous day, and have travelled from southern Africa to Sydney via Doha, Qatar. The two people, who are fully vaccinated, entered isolation; 12 other travellers from southern Africa also entered quarantine for fourteen days, while about 260 other passengers and crew on the flight have been directed to isolate.[27

DJ Community spread ; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-new-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-new-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/27/the-...d-variant.html


An Italian who had traveled to Mozambique on business landed in Rome on Nov. 11 and returned to his home near Naples. He and five family members, including two school-age children, have since tested positive, the Italian news agency LaPresse said. All are isolating in the Naples suburb of Caserta in good condition with light symptoms.

This is 7 days before Dr Coetzee notified the South African Medical Association. 

DJ Testing positive for what variant ? Omicron or (still) Delta ? From the link [url]https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/27/the-world-is-on-alert-as-the-uk-reports-cases-of-omicron-covid-variant.html[/url] or https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/27/the-world-is-on-alert-as-the-uk-reports-cases-of-omicron-covid-variant.htmlThe variant was confirmed by Sacco hospital in Milan, and Italy’s National Health Institute said the man had received two doses of the vaccine. Italy’s health ministry is urging all regions to increase its tracing of the virus and sequencing to detect cases of the new variant first identified in South Africa.

So the fully vaccinated man tested positive for Omicron...Family members ? on variant/immunity...

[url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam

Community transmission in Israel of Omicron: Three of the new cases in Israel are not travelers. Health Ministry says 7 people in Israel suspected of contracting Omicron variant https://timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/health-ministry-says-7-people-in-israel-suspected-of-omicron-variant/ via 

DJ So a look at the links there...

The Health Ministry says there are currently seven people in Israel suspected of having contracted the Omricron coronavirus variant, in addition the one confirmed case announced yesterday.

Of them, four are unvaccinated and three are vaccinated, the ministry says, with four having recently returned from travel abroad.

Does this mean the unvaccinated do not have antibodies ? Israel has seen (also) a high level of spread...unvaccinated most in orthodox groups-did see a lot of cases...

[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericdingJust a note of caution - We know that getting a rapid understanding of disease severity with #Omicron (particularly in vaccinated individuals and re-infections) is absolutely critical, but it's just too early for reliable data.

DJ Looking at all available info however should be top of the list !!!

[url]https://sum.dk/nyheder/2021/november/to-mistaenkte-tilfaelde-af-omicron-b11529-er-paavist-i-danmark-hos-rejsende-fra-sydafrika[/url] or https://sum.dk/nyheder/2021/november/to-mistaenkte-tilfaelde-af-omicron-b11529-er-paavist-i-danmark-hos-rejsende-fra-sydafrika ; - The authorities have a reasonable suspicion that we have the first two cases of the new variant Omicron in Denmark. The variant has been captured in the variant PCR tests that SSI does on positive samples, and therefore we have quickly captured the variant. We are one of the countries with the most comprehensive monitoring of variants, and therefore it is not surprising that we find cases in Denmark at an early stage.   

DJ I can not find anything yet on vaccination/immunity for DK cases (but very likely they needed vaccination for travel...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-new-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?pp=928777#post928947[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-new-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?pp=928777#post928947

HK detects new mutant variant, adds six imported cases

Local | 25 Nov 2021 8:52 pm

snip

A total of 12 persons, who lived in the three rooms to the left and to the right of the two patients in the hotel during November 11 to 14, have been sent to Penny's Bay Quarantine Center to undergo compulsory quarantine for 14 days.

So far no related case was detected.

The center also reported six imported cases, including a one-year-old baby girl, two men and three women aged 17 to 45.

Apart from the baby girl, the other five patients had received two doses of Covid-19 vaccine before.

Among them, four arrived in Hong Kong on Tuesday, including a 28-year-old man from France on flight CX260, a 35-year-old woman from the Philippines on flight 5J272, a 45-year-old man from Russia on flight FV4501 and a 32-year-old woman from Nepal on flight RA409.

The baby girl and a 17-year-old girl traveled to Hong Kong on Sunday on flight EK384. The baby traveled from Bangladesh via the United Arab Emirates while the teenager traveled from Thailand.

snip

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/break...imported-cases

---------------------------------------

Okieman Comment: It appears that this variant is very transmissible. And based upon the information in this article one should consider that it has already spread all over the world. The next question for me is how well it gets around the vaccine or immunity and how capable it is at causing severe health effects? This article and data about it's spread in in Gauteng Province seem to indicate some ability to get past the vaccine.

DJ So also the Hong Kong Omicron cases (now three ?) seem to have been vaccinated...

Austria then ? [url]https://www.tirol.gv.at/meldungen/meldung/ein-verdachtsfall-auf-virus-mutation-b11529-nach-auffaelligkeit-bei-pcr-test-ergebnis/[/url] or https://www.tirol.gv.at/meldungen/meldung/ein-verdachtsfall-auf-virus-mutation-b11529-nach-auffaelligkeit-bei-pcr-test-ergebnis/ ; According to their own information and according to the current state of knowledge, the person concerned has been almost exclusively at home three days ago and currently has no symptoms - the second Covid vaccination with an mRNA vaccine, however, was around nine months ago. Contact persons of the person concerned have been segregated ”

[url]https://ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/domaci/3406500-liberecka-nemocnice-potvrdila-prvni-pripad-varianty-omikron-v-cesku[/url] or https://ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/domaci/3406500-liberecka-nemocnice-potvrdila-prvni-pripad-varianty-omikron-v-cesku ; The Liberec hospital confirmed the occurrence of a new coronavirus variant of omicron in the Czech Republic. He is still waiting for confirmation of positivity in the National Reference Laboratory. The suspect sample was captured by PCR. She is a woman from the Liberec region who returned to the Czech Republic from Namibia via South Africa and Dubai, is vaccinated and has a mild course of the disease. 

DJ Again-I am NOT an expert, this is NOT a scientific forum...almost all cases of Omicron infections outside the Southern Africa region in the vaccinated should not be surprising since only vaccinated could travel...

It may indicate vaccines simply offer "limited" protection...however if almost all cases in Southern Africa would be in people with prior infection more questions come up ! 

Most of the world population may by now have antibodies. Do those antibodies "only" fail to stop infection ? Or do they "help" infection may be the hard question now studied by many !



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 01 2021 at 9:00am

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ;

Again, based on wildly divergent spike protein, I'm guessing that immune escape will be substantial and so I still suspect that it's quite possible that Omicron will show lower intrinsic transmissibility than Delta. My updated diagram. 16/18


Afbeelding


DJ Also trying to copy another one...





ulio giv
In particular this abstract     and others have been trying to untangle escape-transmissibility conundrum here T



Afbeelding

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DJ The area where Omicron is increasing the most has both high natural immunity AND for SA 34% vaccination level...

The idea that viruses tend to become milder over time keeps popping up. I know it's a comforting thought -- the idea that if we just wait long enough, COVID-19 will become just "the cold." But it's a very, very dangerous idea. And completely untrue. …


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 01 2021 at 10:32am

Another link [url]https://twitter.com/trvrb[/url] or https://twitter.com/trvrb ;

Under a scenario of 90% population immunity against previous variants, we get the following picture where Omicron could lie anywhere along the dashed line ranging from an intrinsic R0 of 3 and 83% immune escape to an intrinsic R0 of 9 and 20% immune escape. 14/18


Afbeelding

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Having two very different methods give Rt estimates of between 2.0 and 2.5 gives me some (small) degree of confidence. We can triangulate relative fitness with Rt so that Delta in South Africa is at Rt of ~0.8 and Omicron is at about three times this with Rt of ~2.5. 12/18


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DJ; The picture I am getting on Omicron is the R0 (Reproduction number) is (in this link at least) 3x that of Delta, mainly because of immunity evasion...

Work from  and colleagues gives a similar result of Rt increasing from ~0.8 to above 2 over the course of November in Gauteng (https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/subnational/south-africa/gauteng/). 7/18


Afbeelding

2

5

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DJ Numbers/estimates based on early info from SA/Gauteng...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 01 2021 at 10:43am

[url]https://twitter.com/twenseleers[/url] or https://twitter.com/twenseleers

We can tell from the genetics of the virus and the fast spread in South Africa that Omicron will pose a problem to every country”: #kuleuven researcher 

 discusses the new coronavirus variant in the Financial Times Rug van hand met omlaag wijzende wijsvinger


DJ Lots of non-sense on Omicron a "milder variant :

NEW: we know cases rising fast in South Africa, but what about severe outcomes? I spent yesterday pulling together hospitalisations for Gauteng province, so we can compare the fledging Omicron wave to those that preceded it. So far admissions following ~same path as past waves.


Afbeelding

188

2,2K

5,5K


DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Characteristics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Characteristics

Many of the mutations to the spike protein are present in other variants of concern and are related to increased infectivity and antibody evasion. Computational modeling suggests that the variant may also escape cell-mediated immunity.[12]

On 26 November, the ECDC wrote that an evaluation of the neutralizing capacity of convalescent sera and of vaccines is urgently needed to assess possible immune escape, saying these data are expected within two to three weeks.[9]

As of November 2021, it is unknown how the variant will spread in populations with high levels of immunity, it is also unknown if the omicron variant causes a milder or more severe COVID infection. According to pharmaceutical companies, vaccines could be updated to combat the variant "in around 100 days" if necessary.[31]

This is a bad news story...DJ-I am NOT an expert but...the faster a variant can spread (Omicron 3x more then Delta ?) the more hosts it can find - the more mutations-the more subvariants....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 01 2021 at 12:56pm

The information that we need is the difference between it infecting vaccinated and unvaccinated people. If ADE is present then the outcome in vaccinated people will be key.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 01 2021 at 1:55pm


https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/antibody-dependent-enhancement-and-coronavirus-vaccines


Long article but….


The Bottom Line


So here's the short version: no sign of ADE during the preclinical animal studies. No sign during the human clinical trials. No sign during the initial vaccine rollouts into the population. And (so far) no sign of ADE even with the variant strains in different parts of the world. We have things to worry about in this pandemic, but as far as I can tell today, antibody-dependent enhancement does not seem to be one of them. I understand why people would worry about it, and want to avoid it. But if you're coming across reports that say that it's a real problem right now and that you should avoid getting vaccinated because of it, well, I just don't see it. Some of that is well-intentioned caution, and some of it is probably flat-out anti-vaccine scaremongering.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 02 2021 at 7:49am

Originally posted by Pixie Pixie wrote:


https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/antibody-dependent-enhancement-and-coronavirus-vaccines


Long article but….


The Bottom Line


I just don't see it. Some of that is well-intentioned caution, and some of it is probably flat-out anti-vaccine scaremongering.

It seems Dr. Lowe has a very kind side to him.  


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 02 2021 at 8:59am

I too had my cautions, but they were mostly dispelled very quickly.  What is left:  "very long term" effects, would seem to be a diminishingly, no - vanishingly small risk,  hugely, colossally outweighed by the benefits - both to myself and society as a whole.

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His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 02 2021 at 12:22pm

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

I too had my cautions, but they were mostly dispelled very quickly.  What is left:  "very long term" effects, would seem to be a diminishingly, no - vanishingly small risk,  hugely, colossally outweighed by the benefits - both to myself and society as a whole.

Techno, how can you honestly say that? The vaccine has been administered for about 14 months. The fact that it's gone to millions of people does not in any suggest that there will be no long term effects from having it. Prior to this vaccine, it took 5-7 years to get that data. I understand that the world panicked over Covid and let these safety precautions go in a gamble that all would be well, and perhaps all will be well, but right now, it is a plain fact that no one knows if they will prove to be safe in the long term. There is a reason why safety protocols exist. 

I sincerely hope that they do prove to be fine, but right now, to say that they are safe is a guess and a hope at best. And that's not my opinion, that is widely acknowledged scientific fact.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 02 2021 at 12:32pm

Techno I've just seen your post on another thread acknowledging that there is no proof they are safe long term.

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Kiwimum

Why are you still crapping on about this vaccine ,go away ,come back in 5 years tell us you where right or wrong.....

Every is sick of it .......

I know from the PM's I get......

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 02 2021 at 1:20pm

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

Kiwimum

Why are you still crapping on about this vaccine ,go away ,come back in 5 years tell us you where right or wrong.....

Every is sick of it .......

I know from the PM's I get......

Yep!

And don't forget the 1/100 rule: for every one who steps up to comp!ain, 100 more are thinking the same thing.



I am the DZ Queen, and I approve this message.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote A-I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 02 2021 at 1:25pm

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

Kiwimum

Why are you still crapping on about this vaccine ,go away ,come back in 5 years tell us you where right or wrong.....

Every is sick of it .......

I know from the PM's I get......

So in other words discourse is discouraged unless you follow the party line and narrative. Is this a discussion forum or a cult? 

"Facts don't care about your feelings" I'M A UNVAXXED DEVIL so kiss my rebel ass.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote A-I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 02 2021 at 1:26pm

Originally posted by ViQueen24 ViQueen24 wrote:

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

Kiwimum

Why are you still crapping on about this vaccine ,go away ,come back in 5 years tell us you where right or wrong.....

Every is sick of it .......

I know from the PM's I get......

Yep!

And don't forget the 1/100 rule: for every one who steps up to comp!ain, 100 more are thinking the same thing.



Kinda like VAERS huh LOL

"Facts don't care about your feelings" I'M A UNVAXXED DEVIL so kiss my rebel ass.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 02 2021 at 1:33pm

AI ....

Thought you said this would be all over when the democrats took over......

So all your comments are null and void......


Still an orange faced clown worshipper......

Can't you ever ever find anything constructive to say ?

Or are you so bitter and twisted your hero LOST......


Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote A-I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 02 2021 at 2:01pm

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

AI ....

Thought you said this would be all over when the democrats took over......

So all your comments are null and void......


Still an orange faced clown worshipper......

Can't you ever ever find anything constructive to say ?

Or are you so bitter and twisted your hero LOST......


Didn't answer the question did you?

Do you really want to go political? Too bad your in AU your hero Bidum could use your support here in the US about right now. Seems his poll numbers just keep going DOWN LOL  In fact his poll numbers are lower than Trumps were at the same time in his presidency imagine that. Mid term elections are gonna be great LOL.  And just remember the words of your hero Bidum 

"You’re not going to get COVID if you have these vaccinations," and "If you’re vaccinated, you’re not going to be hospitalized, you’re not going to be in the ICU unit, and you’re not going to die." 

Well that pretty much has been shown to be false as those numbers just keep going up. Seen the latest UK vaxxed death numbers? YIKES way more vaxxed deaths than non vaxxed of those that get covid.   And now there's new and improved Omnicrom seems to really like the vaxxed. Too early to tell how that's gonna play out.

Oh and I do seem to remember you crowing and blathering on about how well AU was doing with Covid. How's that working out for ya now?? Your little country sure seem's to have went full NAZI pretty quick over it. LOL

"Facts don't care about your feelings" I'M A UNVAXXED DEVIL so kiss my rebel ass.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote A-I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 02 2021 at 2:24pm

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1032859/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_45.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3ovS_LZuk6hh0wF2MWP08HGPOekcKCfDp4q5EVzeEAXVS_J0spMEHSMo4


Looks like the vaxxed group has a significantly higher rate of negative outcomes as compared to the nonvaxxed group of those who were infected with Covid. They'd like you to look at it as a whole comparing everyone vaccinated to everyone not vaccinated but the reality is you have to look at the outcomes of those who actually contracted Covid. And clearly there is a huge difference of the number of negative outcomes between the vaxxed and nonvaxxed covid patients.

DJ these outcomes maybe ADE related as there is obviously something going on when more vaxxed covid patients are dying than non vaxxed covid patients by a significant number.

"Facts don't care about your feelings" I'M A UNVAXXED DEVIL so kiss my rebel ass.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote A-I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 02 2021 at 2:51pm

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

AI ....

Thought you said this would be all over when the democrats took over......



Hmm don't think I ever stated that. Go ahead and find the post where you seem to think I stated that. Good luck

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 02 2021 at 2:56pm

Not catching the disease or developing it at all is the primary advantage of vaccination.  I read the report you plucked this titbit out of and it was overwhelmingly in favour of the vaccinations.  

There are several studies on ADE for these vaccines, all find there is no evidence of it occurring.  Here is Pixie's post on the subject:  https://www.avianflutalk.com/omicron-and-ade-immunity_topic44381_post309723.html?KW=ADE#309723 I posted another one. This is a scientifically disproven argument.

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His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 02 2021 at 3:00pm

I did say that KiwiMum, but I also stated how tiny the risks were and how big the alternative risks were in comparison.

Yes, AI, KiwiMum you have the right to your opinions and to express them, but carping on about things which have been scientifically demonstrated to be in error is getting a bit tiring.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote A-I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 02 2021 at 5:35pm

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

Not catching the disease or developing it at all is the primary advantage of vaccination.  I read the report you plucked this titbit out of and it was overwhelmingly in favour of the vaccinations.  

There are several studies on ADE for these vaccines, all find there is no evidence of it occurring.  Here is Pixie's post on the subject:  https://www.avianflutalk.com/omicron-and-ade-immunity_topic44381_post309723.html?KW=ADE#309723 I posted another one. This is a scientifically disproven argument.

Really so when did the vaxx start stopping infection or prevent infection of covid? That statement of yours is not based on factual science. It's disinformation and 513,146 vaxxed covid cases in the UK show exactly that.

And the "tidbit" is the case outcomes of covid patients in the UK for the latest period hardly trivial by any measure. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 03 2021 at 4:57am

The tidbit was a tiny part of said report.  The conclusions you draw from it are also open to alternative enterpretation.  As I said, the report drew very different conclusions to you.

And the vaccine does stop infection, it reduces transmission; no one said the stop had to be confined to the vaccinated.  


It prevents disease from the virus, reduces transmissionof the virus and reduces the opportunities for the virus to mutate.  Yes, it is far from perfect - roll on the "whole virus" vaccination - but it is by far the best option we have at present.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote A-I Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 03 2021 at 11:29am

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

The tidbit was a tiny part of said report.  The conclusions you draw from it are also open to alternative enterpretation.  As I said, the report drew very different conclusions to you.

And the vaccine does stop infection, it reduces transmission; no one said the stop had to be confined to the vaccinated.  


It prevents disease from the virus, reduces transmissionof the virus and reduces the opportunities for the virus to mutate.  Yes, it is far from perfect - roll on the "whole virus" vaccination - but it is by far the best option we have at present.

Hmm never seen basic math require an "alternative interpretation", is that like common core math? LOL. The report data of the negative outcomes of both vaxxed and nonvaxxed covid cases was quite clear and the numbers speak for themselves, no interpretation required. 

Now the WHY of those numbers does require some interpretation. Age clearly plays a major primary role in outcomes regardless of vaxx status as do other secondary factors such as immune system status and preexisting health conditions ect.

Curious how you say " it prevents disease from the virus, reduces transmission" for if it prevented the disease there would be no transmission would there. 

True you work with what you got, but you also have to be truthful about what it is exactly that you got. Which is a "leaky vaccine" and all that it entails.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hazelpad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 03 2021 at 12:40pm

We did speak about ADE a lot while the vaccines were being developed.  Especially as vaccines to the original SarsCoV1 and MersCoV never got passed animal trials due to it.  Also in natural infection SarCoV2 disease tends to worsen in week2 around about time of seroconversion (natural Anitibody production).  Leading some scientists to believe antibodies can be helpful to the virus.  

ADE ( Antibodies that enhance viral entry to cell) and iADE  ( antibodies that switch protective intracellular  antiviral responses off  by decreasing interferon gamma and increasing an immunosuppressive cytokine IL-10).  Have always been a worry for both natural viral infections, monoclonal therapies and for all vaccines.  

We cant say for sure if it is occuring at present or not. The data isnt there and S Africa data is generated from a population where HIV infects 20% of the younger population.

The original data points to a type of IgG2a antibody generation by vaccines that isnt known for ADE., but at the moment everything is new. We have to be open minded.  

Importantly I feel we cant draw conclusions from S Africa alone.   19% of population under 40 are HIV positive. These people got vaccinated at their clinics so may be skewing the data as those with weaken immune systems were vaccinated.

All we can do is wait. It is a realistic worry.  We have quite a few cases of omicrom in Scotland so will see how that goes.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 03 2021 at 1:20pm

Originally posted by Hazelpad Hazelpad wrote:

We did speak about ADE a lot while the vaccines were being developed.  Especially as vaccines to the original SarsCoV1 and MersCoV never got passed animal trials due to it.  Also in natural infection SarCoV2 disease tends to worsen in week2 around about time of seroconversion (natural Anitibody production).  Leading some scientists to believe antibodies can be helpful to the virus.  

ADE ( Antibodies that enhance viral entry to cell) and iADE  ( antibodies that switch protective intracellular  antiviral responses off  by decreasing interferon gamma and increasing an immunosuppressive cytokine IL-10).  Have always been a worry for both natural viral infections, monoclonal therapies and for all vaccines.  

We cant say for sure if it is occuring at present or not. The data isnt there and S Africa data is generated from a population where HIV infects 20% of the younger population.

The original data points to a type of IgG2a antibody generation by vaccines that isnt known for ADE., but at the moment everything is new. We have to be open minded.  

Importantly I feel we cant draw conclusions from S Africa alone.   19% of population under 40 are HIV positive. These people got vaccinated at their clinics so may be skewing the data as those with weaken immune systems were vaccinated.

All we can do is wait. It is a realistic worry.  We have quite a few cases of omicrom in Scotland so will see how that goes.

Hz x

Thank you for your post Hazelpad, this is precisely why I worry about the potential long term effects of these vaccines. The science has simply not been adequately tested before being given to millions of people. We will just have to wait and see.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2021 at 8:28am

[url]https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v43/n24/rupert-beale/on-omicron[/url] or https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v43/n24/rupert-beale/on-omicron ;

Viral origins aren’t always easy to determine. It’s interesting that Omicron has arisen not from Delta but from a different branch of the Sars-CoV-2 evolutionary tree. Delta has had plenty of opportunity to become its most transmissible version. There are suggestions that Omicron might have been transmitted to an animal reservoir (reverse zoonosis), and then jumped back to humans. It’s not impossible, but I doubt it. It seems more likely that Omicron arose as the virus lingered in an immunosuppressed individual, gradually acquiring all the mutations it needed to escape ineffective immunity – plenty of such cases have been described. Untreated HIV is the most prevalent cause of immunosuppression in Southern Africa: yet another reason, if any were needed, to take global health inequality more seriously.

Still, it seems that only a modest quantity of neutralising antibodies is needed to prevent Covid-19. Three doses of vaccine, in people with normal immune systems, provide enormous amounts of antibodies to previous variants: they will be less effective against Omicron, but the hope is that they might still be enough. Other aspects of vaccine-induced immunity that help protect against severe disease (mediated by our T and B cells) will still work. The next generation of vaccines may include Spikes from multiple variants and should possess an even broader neutralising capability. The antiviral drugs will be useful. We aren’t going back to square one, but some hospitals are already struggling. Many intensive care beds are still occupied by unvaccinated adults infected with Delta. Also at high risk are immunocompromised people whom we must do all we can to protect. Get your third jab.

DJ Vaccines may be far from perfect-but among the best-limited-tools we have...in combination with NPI (LOCKDOWN NOW !!!! Omicron is no joke !)

[url]https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1466807346487869445/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1466807346487869445/photo/1 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 11:41am

DJ Worries on ADE in some posts; 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream ;latest;

It is a startling phrase, however, the study shows that the partially vaccinated people had higher viral loads than the fully vaccinated people, and that a high proportion of the deceased were immunocompromised. Given all that, I don't think they are saying there is any direct evidence of ADE, just something that needs further study.

-

Saw a startling phrase this morning:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....03.21267155v1

High viral loads: what drives fatal cases of COVID-19 in vaccinees? an autopsy study

Klaus Hirschbuehl, Tina Schaller, et al View ORCID

Background: The rate of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in vaccinees is becoming an increasingly serious issue. Objective: To determine the causes of death, histological organ alteration, and viral spread in relation to demographic, clinical-pathological, viral variants, and vaccine types.

Results: Autopsies were performed on 16 partially and 13 fully vaccinated individuals. Most patients were elderly and suffered from several relevant comorbidities. Real-time RT-PCR (RT-qPCR) identified a significantly increased rate of generalized viral dissemination within the organism in vaccinated cases versus nonvaccinated cases (45% vs. 16%, respectively; P = 0.008). Vaccinated cases also showed high viral loads, reaching Ct values below 10, especially in the upper airways and lungs. This was accompanied by high rates of pulmonal bacterial or mycotic superinfections and the occurrence of immunocompromising factors such as malignancies, immunosuppressive drug intake, or decreased immunoglobulin levels. All these findings were particularly accentuated in
partially vaccinated patients compared to fully vaccinated individuals. A fatal course after vaccination occurred in only 14% of all COVID-19 deceased in Augsburg. Limitations: Restricted number of cases Conclusions: Fatal cases of COVID-19 in vaccinees were rare and often associated with severe comorbidities or other immunosuppressive conditions. Interestingly, we observed striking virus dissemination in our case study, which may indicate a decreased ability to eliminate the virus in patients with an impaired immune system. However, the potential role of antibody-dependent enhancement must also be ruled out in future studies.

If ADE is a factor, Omicron "mild" infections will rip through previously hard-hit areas.

DJ Also Geert van den Bossche..

Continued mass vaccination will only push the evolutionary capacity of SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein beyond the Omicron version

Updated 7:41 AM EST, Tue November 30, 2021

By By G. Vanden Bossche, DVM, PhD
...

As the scientifically perverse narrative continues to add fuel to the fire, it is difficult to believe that Omicron will be the end station of the pandemic train that’s out of control. Omicron is likely to start out as a mild disease because short-lived, poorly functional anti-S antibodies (Abs) that resulted from previous asymptomatic infection (e.g., with another previously dominant variant) will no longer recognize Omicron.

 It is, indeed, highly likely that resistance of Omicron will not be limited to vaccinal Abs but also to naturally induced low affinity Abs that result from asymptomatic/ mild infection. Consequently, Abs from such previous infection would no longer compete with relevant innate Abs for binding to the virus. Individuals who previously contracted asymptomatic/ mild infection will, therefore, be able to fully rely on their first line of immune defense to deal with Omicron. This will leave our ‘experts’ with the impression that the virus (in fact Omicron) is becoming less virulent (than Delta) and is on its way to transit into endemicity.

 However, the overall pattern of ‘mild’ disease would only prevail until Omicron becomes dominant and causes high infection rates. When this happens, short-lived, low affinity anti-S Abs will start to compete with innate Abs in an increasing part of the population as a direct result of the enhanced likelihood of re-exposure shortly after previous infection. High Omicron infection rates will prevent short-lived, poorly functional anti-S Abs from declining in large parts of the population. This, combined with continued mass vaccination with (inevitable?) anti-Omicron vaccines, will enable large populations to exert immune pressure on Omicron’s infectiousness. None of these immune responses is, however, capable of curtailing viral transmission (it’s now widely acknowledged that the type of C-19 vaccines used by the industry is not capable of blocking transmission)....


I do not know what to think of all of this...

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 12:59pm

I'm not sure if I'm reading that right Josh, but is it saying that on the first wave of Omicron, it will present itself as a mild disease in vaccinated people but once it is the dominant strain and is everywhere, that the people who are vaccinated and have had the mild disease will then be primed to catch it again in a more severe form? 

Please correct me if I've misread that.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 1:38pm

KiwiMum, If Geert van den Bossche turns out to be correct vaccination strategy (only) made matters worse...He was pro-vaccination for (very) limited groups...The rest would have to accept being infected...And there I do not get his point..."natural infection" also gives an immune response...

I do not know if NOT vaccinating would have been better, would have stopped variants ? I do not think so...(In fact if I remember correctly GvdB stated some of the early variants started in slumps...population pressure in poor urban area's...lots of infections in hosts "on top of each other" resulting in mutations with high spread becoming variants...). 

So if you do vaccinate you end up with vaccine-selecting variants, otherwise you end up with other immunity evading variants...

Denmark has a high level of vaccinations [url]https://www.thelocal.dk/20211205/denmark-reports-concerning-jump-in-omicron-cases/[/url] or https://www.thelocal.dk/20211205/denmark-reports-concerning-jump-in-omicron-cases/ ...[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-reports-4-more-omicron-infections-bringing-total-to-11/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-reports-4-more-omicron-infections-bringing-total-to-11/ even in/with boosters....[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/more-omicron-cases-detected-in-ny-as-hospitals-strain-under-delta-surge/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/more-omicron-cases-detected-in-ny-as-hospitals-strain-under-delta-surge/ New York announced three more cases of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus Saturday, bringing the number of state cases linked to the new variant to eight.

DJ So-again I am not an expert...just running out of words...(may need more "singing angels !" !) Non Pharma Interventions-slowing the spread ?

Stay safe & sane !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 1:49pm

Josh I suspect with 7 billion of us on the planet, we would have been damned if we did and damned if we didn't. Amongst us all there would have been many Typhoid Marys regardless of what we did or didn't do. We can only act with the information we have to hand at the time and hindsight is always in 20.20 vision. 

A friend of mine, whilst doing his medical degree, found an extra bone in the foot of his cadaver, and all the other students came to view it. He thought he had found something unique but the lecturer told him that the human body was so incredible and complicated that many people were walking around with an anomaly or two and were never even aware of it. There are bound to people around right now who are incubating something deadly, much as there must be people around with an inbuilt, and as yet, unexplained immunity to all sorts of nasties.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hazelpad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 2:09pm

Hi DJ

Sorry dont have time to look at second paper yet but will soon.


First paper not impressed by. 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....03.21267155v1

High viral loads: what drives fatal cases of COVID-19 in vaccinees? an autopsy study

Klaus Hirschbuehl, Tina Schaller, et al View ORCID 

Too many contributing factors and  low sample numbers. These aren’t people with normal functioning immune systems, so not representative of what would happen in general vaccinated population. 

They say patients had malignancies (  Malignancies turn off the NK cell response which also happens to be a major player in antiviral responses.  Patients with NK deficiency often die from overwhelming viral disease ).  Others had superinfections with fungus and bacterial.  There are 2 arms of the immune system Th1 and Th2.  If someone has major bacterial or fungal infection  the Th2 arm comes into play and the antiviral Th1 responses lower.  ( opportunistic infections can be viral and in heavy loads especially with coexisting fungal infections).  Also if the pulmonary infections and malignancies caused lesions, the area would be more vascular and have more cells in the airways, more cells for this virus to evade and replicate in, so higher viral load.

Even if we look past all these factors and simply accept their vaccinated patients had higher viral load than unvaccinated,  it could be down to stage of their disease.  The patients that are unvaccinated are probably not as sick beforehand as the ones in the vaccinated cohort.  Those vaccinated have probably had more clinic interactions and experienced more pressure, advice and availability  to get vaccinated ( study ran from Jan 2021 so covers early days).   The sicker patients were the more likely they were to accept a vaccine ( there is data on this in the UK).  So you could argue the possibility that ...the vaccinated patients were  sicker to start with ......  so were   more immunocompromised ....  so  higher viral load.     Also if we remember during 2021 immunosuppressives were given as a last resort to those unvaccinated,  they got alternative therapies where possible.  All this can skew data.

Lastly these immunocompromised vaccinated people bear no resemblance molecularly to healthy vaccinated/ non vaccinated people.  So their  immunological profile  cant be compared to what will happen in the general population.   On one hand the study is  suggesting having a heavier viral load  could be down to ADE, on the other they are saying their sample patients were mostly  immunocompromised, elderly and ill with malignancies, or on immunosuppressive medications.  Importantly at one point they state some of the people had decreased immunoglobulin ( antibody) levels.... so probably didn’t generate much antibodies.  The next they are talking about Antibody dependent enhancement ( in patients with low antibody levels).  Its all a bit messy and too much background.  

So concerning article 1 I don’t think much can be taken from it in terms of ADE.  I think ADE is important to be aware of and I have always said this, I just dont think this paper is clean enough to add much.  Of course this is just my opinion.

HZ X

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2021 at 8:57pm

Hazelpad/KiwiMum-thanks for reacting....ADE (in any form) would be such a major factor it would show itself up in statistics...

My big worry (at least one of many in this phase) is ADE has to be the "end of the road" for the virus...it will end up there ?  The higher the level of immunity (via natural infections or vaccinations) the more the virus will "react" in it in its evolution...

In my opinion NOT going for vaccines was not an option...(but maybe more limited would make a difference ???) ...NPI should have stayed #1 as strategy....

Basic point-well known by almost all of us by now-coronavirus is very "elastic"...will find away around any blockade we try to use...as seen in coronavirusses in animals....

Time will tell, to limited data for now...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 12 2021 at 7:56am

Some twitter ; [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ;








Longitudinal analyses of plasma from individuals who were vaccinated only (2x mRNA or 1x J&J) shows substantial Omicron escape

-

Longitudinal analyses of plasma from convalescent individuals (1m, 6m, 12m after infection) shows substantial Omicron neutralization escape

-We compared Omicron to an antibody resistant spike (PMS20) that we previously designed. Omicron distribution of changes and neutralization properties  are similar to PMS20. Suggests that antibody evolutionary pressure drove Omicron emergence

DJ As far as I understand it, further confirmation present vaccines do not offer enough protection against Omicron, neither does immunity after infection. (Other studies indicate boosters offer at best some sort of short term protection...). 

Omicron is "the outcome of antibody immunity"...DJ; What I make of it vaccines and/or "natural immunity after infection" (most likely both)  "created" the Omicron variant.

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