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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

Omicron-statistics

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Omicron-statistics
    Posted: December 12 2021 at 10:44pm

DJ

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table some countries have cases going up-with most of them very likely Omicron-and also deaths-statistics going up. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics (Using highest reported Omicron number per country)

In part those deaths may be dying from the Delta-variant. However "news is unclear"....is Omicron killing this fast ?????

Norway cases +32% - deaths +126% 109 Omicron cases detected.

Denmark cases +50% - deaths -8% (so deaths not yet going up) 2,471 Omicron detections...

UK cases +12%, deaths +1%  3.137 Omicron cases detected

Finland cases +10, deaths +20%  only 9 Omicron cases detected so far...

for monitoring I include Ireland cases -14%, deaths +47% 10 Omicron cases detected (and some more in Northern Ireland)

Liechtenstein cases +12%, deaths going from 1 to 5 (=400%...)  1 Omicron case detected.... 

France (most cases still Delta ???) cases +15%, deaths +40%  only 59 Omicron cases detected...

Italy cases +15%, deaths +20% (also most Delta ???) Omicron cases only 13 detections...

Portugal cases +14%, deaths +1%   37 Omicron cases....

DJ Problem is the BA.2 subvariant needs sequencing so detection takes time...

Canada cases +20%, deaths +12%  so far 91 Omicron cases were found...

Australia cases +12%, deaths -4% 77 Omicron cases....

In Asia;

UAE cases +16%, deaths +50% only 1 Omicron case detected...

Japan cases +14%, deaths +50% ...13 Omicron cases...

South Korea cases +38%, deaths +32% ...90 Omicron cases...

In Africa Omicron must be dominant by now...one would expect to see death-statistics to go up...however a younger population, warm weather, and-maybe ???- no widespread vaccinations do change the picture ? Testing/sequencing is a very major problem ;

Zimbabwe cases +456%, deaths +460% means 5 deaths last week, 28 this week....very serious under reporting....50 Omicron cases "only"...

South Africa cases +93%, deaths "only" +1%...(169 to 171 ) ...779 Omicron cases detected...

In Latin America Brazil detected 6 Omicron cases, Mexico, Cuba, Argentina all just 1...so maybe not "a signal in statistics" yet ? 

DJ Why do these numbers matter ? It can give indications of how bad Omicron may be...does it spread more in vaccinated ???? Does it bring more severe disease in vaccinated ????

Israel reporting 55 Omicron cases - did a lot of booster vaccinations...cases +5%, deaths -20% ...but still not in winter...young population...???

Just trying to get a picture...could it be some Omicron sub-variants are much worse ???



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Littlesmile Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 13 2021 at 2:35am

Thank you for this! The numbers just don't seem to add up or be right. It's crazy!

I know for here (Northern Ireland) only 1 out of 3 wear masks, no social distancing and very few get tested... The goal posts keep moving (so to speak) on the rules. People either don't care, are confused or think it's a joke.

For instance my sons teacher in school had covid and because they changed the track and trace he was not classed as a close contact. He did not have to get tested or to isolate. His teacher was good enough to tell us otherwise we would not have know.


If (or when) this gets as bad here as it seems it could. It will be such a shock to people, I don't know what they will do.

:-)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 13 2021 at 2:50am

Littlesmile if the Spanish Flu story could give indications it would be helpfull...but the 1918-19 world end/post world war 1 is in many ways "to far away" to be usefull. 

Another complication is "some leaders" a.o. in UK, NL have discredited themselves. A result may be people only follow new rules when "bodies start piling up"....

[url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20211213002300320[/url] or https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20211213002300320

SEOUL, Dec. 13 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's new coronavirus cases fell below 6,000 for the first time in six days Monday due to fewer tests over the weekend amid concerns over the spread of the new omicron variant.

The country added 5,817 new COVID-19 infections, raising the total caseload to 523,088, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA).

Daily infections soared to a record high of 7,174 cases on Wednesday and remained above 7,000 for the following two days before falling to 6,977 on Saturday and 6,689 on Sunday.

The number of critically ill COVID-19 patients still remained at the second-highest of 876 after reaching an all-time high of 894 Sunday, the KDCA said.

The country added 40 more deaths from the pandemic, bringing the death toll to 4,293. The fatality rate stood at 0.82 percent.

The public health agency has confirmed 24 more omicron cases, raising the total to 114.

DJ  South Korea cases +38%, deaths +32%...[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=KOR[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=KOR latest info december 4,  BA.1-Omicron then 1% of cases....(Delta AY.69 at 73%, AY.122 at 22%, other 4% )

Norway info updated till december 1...[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NOR[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NOR

In general what is needed now (often not published) is what is the age of people dying from CoViD, vaccination status...what variant they tested for...If sequencing is needed (BA.2 not having deletion of 69/70...BA.1, like Alpha, was easy to detect in some PCR tests...) it may take even more time to get the info needed...

By the way, some very welcome good news ; [url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20211213002500315[/url] or https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20211213002500315 ;  

Moon says U.S., China, N. Korea agree in principle on end-of-war declaration

DJ The Korean War -as "diplomatic status" started in 1950...so far did not end...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Littlesmile Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 13 2021 at 6:02am

It's unfortunate that we can't learn from history. I can't help thinking what future generations will think of our 'history'. 

It's shocking how the numbers seem to be so different for each country. Is it because the numbers are being 'fixed'? Or are countries so far ahead? 

Excess mortality could tell a completely different picture too.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps


*not sure if this is the best one


:-)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 13 2021 at 11:53am

I've just found out that here in NZ the government has just removed the order that masks are compulsory in shops and indoor spaces. They are now recommended but not required. Apparently it's to reward everyone for being vaccinated (91%).

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 13 2021 at 12:20pm

"can't fix stupid"....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 13 2021 at 9:39pm

Norway cases +28%, deaths +150% (last week 16, this week-meaning the last 7 days) 40...so limited numbers...[url]https://norwaytoday.info/news/nakstad-comments-on-current-corona-situation-in-norway-says-it-resembles-march-of-2020/[/url] or https://norwaytoday.info/news/nakstad-comments-on-current-corona-situation-in-norway-says-it-resembles-march-of-2020/

Assistant health director Espen Rostrup Nakstad told TV 2 that the infection situation in the context of omicron is quite similar to the situation in March 2020, before the vaccination program was underway.

He pointed out that infection rates and hospitalization rates are rising and that the vaccines do not seem to provide full protection against the omicron variant.

“We are back to March 2020 a bit, when no one in the population really had particularly good protection against the new virus. Now it seems that the vaccines do not protect us very well against this new variant. So we are back in the same situation a bit, except that the vaccines may protect you from becoming seriously ill,” Nakstad told TV 2.

He emphasized that the vaccines provide important protection against serious illness and that it appears that they provide the same protection against serious illness when it comes to omicron infection.

Only 7% of everyone over the age of 45 in Norway is unvaccinated. Nevertheless, just over 40% of corona patients in Norwegian hospitals are unvaccinated, according to figures from the National Institute of Public Health (FHI).

DJ [url]https://norwaytoday.info/news/fhi-update-as-of-monday-958-omicron-cases-have-been-confirmed-in-norway/[/url] or https://norwaytoday.info/news/fhi-update-as-of-monday-958-omicron-cases-have-been-confirmed-in-norway/ and [url]https://norwaytoday.info/news/norways-fhi-the-third-vaccine-dose-by-itself-isnt-enough-to-get-the-spread-of-omicron-under-control/[/url] or https://norwaytoday.info/news/norways-fhi-the-third-vaccine-dose-by-itself-isnt-enough-to-get-the-spread-of-omicron-under-control/

“10% of omicron-infected people in Denmark had received three doses of the corona vaccine. The vaccines alone are not enough to control the spread of infection,” infection control chief Geir Bukholm at the National Institute of Public Health (FHI) says.

“It’s not surprising. We know that these vaccines do not protect 100%. Even with a booster dose, some will be infected,” Bukholm told Norwegian Broadcasting (NRK).

A total of 2,471 people in Denmark have been registered as infected with the omicron variant, Sunday figures show. Almost 10% of them became infected even though they had taken three vaccine doses. In Norway, so far, none of those infected with the omicron variant have been vaccinated with three doses, according to the FHI.

“The most important effect we expect from a booster dose is that we can protect people quite effectively against serious illness,” Bukholm noted.

DJ Statistics will give us some info on what age groups are getting what level of protection from infection/disease from the Omicron variant. One worry should be vaccines and/or immunity would increase risks for infection or severe disease. 

Denmark cases +39% deaths (still ?) -8% (down from 73 to 67 these last 7 days) 

UK cases +10%, deaths (still) -1%...

Another problem is that hospitals will get out of capacity soon. Deaths may go up because people no longer can get the care they need...not because Omicron itself is causing more severe disease (then Delta) but causing more patients....

South Korea cases +38%, deaths +28%

Israel cases +16%, deaths +8%

I did see "dr"jc misinformation "South Africa showing Omicron is mild".... SA cases +93% deaths +13%

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics is mentioning 8,222 Omicron cases being detected in 74 countries...The UK may see 200,000 Omicron cases per day..indicating the sequenced statistics only may have some value on spread...Russia and even China now also reporting cases....

To "copy" "dr"jc some "good news" no Omicron cases in Antarctica yet....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 14 2021 at 2:32am

Note: This is data from the 1st 3 weeks of the outbreak, so it might change - regard it as preliminary real-world data 

6. Important to note that the lower protection (down from 93% to 70%) against hospitalisation because of #Omicron  could be because older people were vaccinated first in SA, so there has been a longer period for vaccine-derived immunity to wane than with younger age groups

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 14 2021 at 2:50am

I wonder if Omicron may have more then two subvariants [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Stealth_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Stealth_variant  and [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues 

Does the "timeline" for Norway, Denmark differ that much that it explains the difference in % of deaths ? 

Another question is when did first cases start spreading...several countries may have seen Omicron cases mid-november. Part of them via people in travel-possibly spreading Omicron at airports...We may not have a realistic timeline for early spread (from 4 diplomats from Europe leaving Botswana november 11 ?). [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Epidemiology[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Epidemiology 

It looks like we will learn a lot this week on how bad Omicron will show itself in many countries....Zimbabwe may have been hit harder the SA in Southern Africa...but since most of Africa has "very limited testing" and lots of mega-cities (population 10 million+) - Omicron a.o. also detected in India, Brazil we will very likely also have to expect lots of mutations resulting in Omicron sub-variants. 

Since Omicron is spreading this much faster in more hosts (evading most immunity allready) and most of those hosts may have been infected/vaccinated earlier new sub-variants of Omicron may be even more evading immunity. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 14 2021 at 7:08am

[url]https://twitter.com/billhanage[/url] or https://twitter.com/billhanage ; Lots of chatter about how early data show #Omicron is "less dangerous".  But it is important to correct for the lag between infection and hospitalization when comparing the severity of variants with very different properties when it comes to transmission, here’s why 1/n

-

Imagine two viruses exactly the same in terms of severity, but one of them infects on average 3 people, and the other 1.1 (I know you can’t have 0.1 of a person, it’s an average). These are the effective reproductive numbers or Re and they determine how quickly they spread 2/n

-

If we start with 1000 infections with the less transmissible variant and just one of the more, we would expect the latter to overtake the former by the 7th generation (assuming nothing changes). Exponentials are wild 3/n


Afbeelding

2

24

135

-

This is not only an issue at the start of the exponential but for anything growing at a faster rate. because new cases enter the denominator faster than the ones that subsequently turn bad are counted in the numerator 6/n

-

To account for this when comparing variants you have to account for different growth rates *and* the lag time to severe illness (thx 

 for emphasizing this). Of course the lag time might change adding another complication 7/n

-

And many other complicated things can go on. For now, remember that we are seeing the hospitalizations that resulted from infections that started about 2 weeks ago. And that was only a few days after Omicron was described and before it was reported in many places 8/n


DJ The Omicron variants in fact just started...Good news is vaccines-so far-(even just 2x) seem to offer some protection against severe disease.

You cannot control an exponential process with a linear response.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 14 2021 at 1:38pm

Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

I wonder if Omicron may have more then two subvariants [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Stealth_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Stealth_variant  and [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues 

Does the "timeline" for Norway, Denmark differ that much that it explains the difference in % of deaths ? 

Another question is when did first cases start spreading...several countries may have seen Omicron cases mid-november. Part of them via people in travel-possibly spreading Omicron at airports...We may not have a realistic timeline for early spread (from 4 diplomats from Europe leaving Botswana november 11 ?). [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Epidemiology[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Epidemiology 

It looks like we will learn a lot this week on how bad Omicron will show itself in many countries....Zimbabwe may have been hit harder the SA in Southern Africa...but since most of Africa has "very limited testing" and lots of mega-cities (population 10 million+) - Omicron a.o. also detected in India, Brazil we will very likely also have to expect lots of mutations resulting in Omicron sub-variants. 

Since Omicron is spreading this much faster in more hosts (evading most immunity allready) and most of those hosts may have been infected/vaccinated earlier new sub-variants of Omicron may be even more evading immunity. 




DJ - I did see that it has 3 sub variants on Twitter last night. Let me see if I can find it again... 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 14 2021 at 8:52pm

Thanks for the link KiminNM; I try to keep an eye on [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues . Omicron allready 2 sublineages this early is remarkable...some other sublineages so far have limited data. 

With Omicron exploding so will data give lab's a 24/7 job...Sequencing is taking-I think-to much time. So the medical world may start looking at pattern of symptoms. Sequence-info then comes later to provide more info. 

By now the effect of a lot of mutations in CoViD is known in itself. Omicrons mutations is half "old mutations"seen earlier...one problem is to learn what these mutations may bring in Omicron...

Another point of discussion is should one compare the UK with SA or DK/Norway statistics ? I think you have to look at ALL the info on Omicron. Nationalism/tunnelvision does not help in dealing with a global problem. 

-Numbers (I try to keep the list short). 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics Omicron now detected in 77 countries. Global inequality is reflected in only 50 cases detected in Zimbabwe, UK 4,713 detections. DJ-In my non expert opinion Omicron is spreading worldwide-and still gets all the room to do so....boosters to avoid restrictions in rich countries-resulting in even less vaccines for countries we keep poor. WHO warning vaccines alone can not do the job....

UK cases +12%, deaths -7%

DK cases +36%, deaths -7%

Norway cases +26%, deaths +717% ! (6 last week, 49 this week)

SA cases +84%, deaths +7%

South Korea cases +32%, deaths +29%

USA cases -4%, deaths -9% / Canada cases +32%, deaths +1%

Israel cases +13%, deaths +27% (11 last week, 14 this week)

Several statistics indicating both Delta and Omicron numbers are increasing (a.o. in London UK)

Africa statistics cases +85%, deaths +4%...positive test to death may take a few weeks...(CFR round 1% ???)

In Spain cases +45%, deaths +65% ? Portugal cases +10%, deaths -12% (More Delta related ? Spreading from Portugal into Spain ? Spain 50, Portugal 37 Omicron detections...)

Finland cases +13%, deaths +22% (49 last week, 60 this week). Sweden now cases +3%, deaths -75%...did Sweden manage to keep Omicron cases out ? Or were they just lucky ? So far Sweden 28 Omicron cases...but when detected/isolated at border posts they may not spread...

China cases -5% (last week 586, this week 559 China cases only with symptoms) So far only 1 Omicron case ?

Russia cases -8%, deaths -4% This far 16 Omicron cases...

What is Turkey doing ? Cases -8%, deaths -6% so far 6 Omicron cases...

DJ-In a lot of these countries Omicron has become a dominant factor. Deaths may reflect still a lot of Delta cases. However the Delta wave is going down in many (but not all !) places...

Some factors influencing statistics;

-Summer/winter/tropics

-young/old population

-Hit hard by earlier variants or not 

-Vaccination level

-Testing/sequencing capacity & reporting

-What variant(s) are spreading

DJ-Comparing just one country with one other (UK with SA as example) may be misleading if you want to give a picture of what to expect from Omicron. But for instance comparing Norway with Denmark, Finland with Sweden may provide usefull questions. (Why in one country deaths going up, the other still going down-when the spread may have started around the same time ?)

DJ-The picture I am getting Omicron is NOT mild ! Spreads like crazy !


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