On Global News in Canada

Key health and security personnel in the transportation sector might refuse to work during an influenza pandemic, complicating efforts to handle the crisis, warns a new intelligence report.

The prospect of front-line staff at border points and airports staying home is among the worrisome scenarios flagged by analysts bracing for a possible flu pandemic that could result in "temporary collapse" of Canadian transportation systems.

The report says the entire country would probably experience "severe (possibly life-threatening) shortages of everything from fresh food and health supplies, to fuel and electricity, due to worker sickness and fear of public exposure."

The World Health Organization has cited a serious possibility of a bird flu pandemic with the potential to kill tens of millions of people. The H5N1 strain has killed at least 95 people since 2003, mostly in Asia, according to the World Health Organization, and has devastated poultry stocks. Scientists are concerned that the virus could mutate into a form easily spread among people, sparking a pandemic.

A declassified version of the secret Transport Department report, Potential Effects of a World Pandemic on Canadian Transportation, was obtained by The Canadian Press under the Access to Information Act.

The assessment, completed in late October by Transport's intelligence branch, was distributed to federal security and transportation officials, and select U.S. government and private-sector personnel. "A worldwide pandemic may be looming on the horizon," says the Transport Canada report. "Or, nothing might happen."

However, the document says, widespread fear of a pandemic could prompt Canadians to refuse to travel by any public means for fear of contracting the disease.

Anti-viral drugs, which may blunt the severity of illness, would be given to airport, port and ground transportation officials on an urgent basis.

"When vaccines eventually become available, these officers would again need priority inoculations to ensure that they can carry out their tasks without fear of contracting the disease," the report says.

However, as vaccines would not be available for months after the pandemic emerged, many quarantine officers and security officials such as airport passenger screeners might refuse to work, knowing they would be exposed "to higher risk of infection and death."

A major disruption, or even temporary collapse, of Canada's transportation system could lead to widespread shortages of essential products, including food, soap, medicines and fuel, making recovery more difficult.

Transport Canada officials met this week in Ottawa with transportation industry representatives to discuss plans for handling a pandemic as part of a continuing dialogue.

"We might be able to find ways that we can mitigate this," said John Read, a director general with the department. "And we should be doing this in quiet time before a pandemic rather than under pressure should one erupt."

The report notes that historically pandemics have spread across Canada and the world following major transportation routes: ports, airports, rail lines, roads and major river systems.

"A pandemic today, travelling in airliners flying at near the speed of sound, might circle the globe in several days or less, unless governments severely restrict air travel on the first warning of a possible pandemic."

The assessment adds that even a localized outbreak in China or Southeast Asia could have "widespread economic impact" in Canada since China has become one of the world's main manufacturing centres and transportation hubs.

"Shipping companies and airlines would probably stop service to Asia, possibly causing a domino effect of bankruptcies in companies depending on just-in-time delivery of goods."

Many countries in Southeast Asia have ineffective and decentralized health systems, making it difficult to get accurate, timely information, the report says. "In other words, a warning may come too late, only after (avian flu) has spread to thousands of people in Asia's rural areas and cities, and reached our shores."

In other developments yesterday:

* Quebec Health Minister Philippe Couillard said that province is preparing for a worst-case scenario in which 2.6 million of its people would be infected in the event of a human influenza pandemic. In Ontario, the provincial government is looking to pass legislation before next summer that grants the premier "extraordinary" powers during emergencies.

* In Washington, Homeland Security Michael Chertoff said that the H5N1 virus could appear in North America in the next few months as wild birds migrate from infected countries.

* In Geneva, the World Health Organization said health authorities in Azerbaijan are investigating a worrisome cluster of possible human cases of H5N1 avian influenza. A total of 11 suspected cases, including eight members of the same family, are being assessed. Of the 11 suspect cases, three people have died and one is in serious condition in hospital. While clusters may be the result of several people from the same family or village each having exposure to infected birds, they could also signal the virus has passed from one person to another.

It is believed there have been a number of cases of limited human-to-human transmission of the H5N1 virus. But any sign of continued spread could mean the virus had mutated to more easily jump to and between people.

* In Germany, the H5N1 virus has been found in a weasel-like mammal called a stone marten, indicating the disease has spread to another animal species, according to a German laboratory. H5N1 was found in a cat last month, the first time the virus has been identified in an animal other than a bird in central Europe. Infected cats have since been found in Austria. Cats are believed to have caught the virus by eating infected birds.

with files from The Associated Press

AS POSTED BY Darlman in the forum discussion Room..I copied and pasted to this thread..with humbled thanks to Darlman...for us Canadians this is impotant...adjust tin hat and says thank you...