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On the possibility of a major earthquake
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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    Posted: May 30 2015 at 11:53pm
On the possibility of a major earthquake in the Japan-region june 2015

Since both panic and indifference can kill pre-knowledge on what might be possible can limit damage and sorrow. 

The 8.5 downgraded to 7.8 earthquake http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us20002ki3#general_summary Japan on may 30 2015 took place at a depth of 677.6 kilometres. Such a deep quake might translate in a stronger quake more shallow. 

When one would upgrade an 8,5 quake with a magnitude 1 or 2 one ends up with a 9.5 to 10.5 quake. 
Even a 7.8+1=8.8 quake is a major risk because of the tsunami's it can cause and the following damage to nuclear plants, dam's etc. 

The idea of deep quakes transferring into larger shallow quakes is based on the domino-effect-chain-reaction https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y97rBdSYbkg. 
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Points: 95227 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 31 2015 at 12:00am
Deep earthquakes occur quite often. If there is a relation between deep earthquakes and stronger shallow earthquakes statistics should show that. Another question is how to prepare for such a major event. What can history teach us ? 

A recent study indicated that Japan might be one of the few places that-geologicaly-could see a very large earthquake. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2012/12/15/national/magnitude-10-temblor-could-happen-study/#.VWqxeM_tmkp (Study from Toru Matsuzawa 2012 http://db.tohoku.ac.jp/whois/e_detail/91928e0f02f967b695c85f5f6d53edde.html)
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From USGS:

Earthquakes that have focal depths greater than 300 km are commonly termed "deep-focus". Deep-focus earthquakes cause less damage on the earth’s surface above their foci than is the case with similar magnitude shallow-focus earthquakes.  Large deep-focus earthquakes may be felt at great distance from their epicenters. The largest recorded deep-focus earthquake was a 2013 M 8.3 earthquake that occurred at a depth of 600 km within the subducted Pacific plate beneath the Sea of Okhotsk, offshore northeastern Russia. The M 8.3 Okhotsk earthquake was felt all over Asia, as far away as Moscow, and across the Pacific along the western seaboard of the United States. Over the past century, 66 earthquakes with a magnitude of M7 or more have occurred at depths greater than 500 km; three of these were located in the same region as today's event. The largest nearby event at these depths was a 1968 M 7.3 earthquake, several hundred kilometers to the south of this earthquake.
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Points: 95227 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 31 2015 at 12:09am
When 66 earthquakes with a Magnitude of 7 and a depth of 500 kilometres or more happened the last 100 years how many magnitude 8 earthquakes can be found ? Searching USGS you end up with 91 M8(+) earthquakes the last century. (Searching for M7(+) quakes at a depth 500km(+) ends up with 64 quakes).

One can search for a shorter period when looking if there is a relationship between a M7 at 500km depth and a M8, say within a month. That would not mean that there is another relationship than just the timing, not a proof that one quake is the cause of the other quake. 
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Points: 95227 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 31 2015 at 12:39am
The oldest quake in the USGS-archives with a depth of 540 km a m7.3 was in Peru december 18 1921. There was a 8.3 earthquake in Atacama, Chili on november 11 1922. Proberbly not directly linked !

Another search; on april 29 1939 a 7.0 in Primorýe Russia/ China-pacific region, depth 530 km. We can find a 8.1 in Sulawesi Indonesia on december 21 same year. No link !

Third try; At a depth of 610 km a 7,1 in Argentina 14 august 1950. Is there a link with a M8-event ? There are two M8 events, the next day one in China/India border region M 8.6 and another in Chili december 9 1950 M 8.2. But not in the same region or within a month !
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Points: 95227 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 31 2015 at 12:47am
A different approach, is there any relationship between the four M9(+) earthquakes (Chili 9.6 in 1960, Alaska 9.3 in 1964, Indonesia 9.0 in 2004 and Japan 9.0 in 2011) and any earlier deeper event within a period of 3 months and a depth of more than a 100 kilometres in the same region ?
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Points: 95227 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 31 2015 at 12:49am
Chili 9.6 may 22 1960 = looking for depth 100km(+) febr1-may 22 1960 M1 maybe lack of data, no results.

Try the latest one, Japan 2011....on march 11 the 9.0 Japan quake, the day before a 6.5 in the Bali-sea (Indonesia) at a depth of 510.6 km. 

Is there enough data for the 2004 Sumatra-quake M9.0 ? There were several deep quakes within in days before the december 26-2004 (UTC=00.58) earthquake; the largest a 5.0 sulawesi-quake http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usp000dbcu#general_summary and several at a depth of  around 500 km at december 24 Fiji http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usp000dbcb#general_summary.  Also http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usp000dbbv#general_summary a 4,7 south of Mindanao dec 24-2004. That might indicate that there is a relationship between deep earthquakes (sometimes) being followed by larger shallow quakes. (But statisticly two cases is no basis !!!)

There might be a link in time between strong shallow earthquakes and deep earthquakes up to a few days earlier. That link is not proof that the earlier deep earthquake caused the larger quake that followed. On the other hand deep quakes do not always seem to be followed by a larger shallow quake ? 
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Points: 95227 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 31 2015 at 5:47am
In my opinion one should make a difference between statistics and science. Even when there is no science based proof of a relation between deep quakes being followed by shallow but stronger quakes if there is statistical correlation governments could chose to deal with that. 

It should be possible to calculate-based on statistics-after a deep earthquake what region runs an increased risk for wich period. If science find more information that is welcome. But public interest should be priority number 1 !

Since siesmologist are paid by tax taxpayers can ask responsibility. Why did a government not take action after a deep earthquake ? How much lives could be saved, damage prevented ? (Of course that also goes for hurricane's blizzards etc). 

Fukushima nuclear disaster was caused first by the quake itself, and did get worse after the tsunami. Realistic scenario's should be the basis for preparation. There is no point in saving costs at the short term when that means spending much more money when things go wrong.
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Points: 95227 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 31 2015 at 7:08am
http://news.yahoo.com/japan-vigilant-big-one-powerful-quake-072043084.html

Japan vigilant for 'Big One' after powerful quake


Seismologists Sunday warned Japan to stay vigilant for the next "Big One" after a powerful 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of the quake-prone nation, injuring a dozen people.

Buildings swayed for around a minute in Tokyo and its vicinity Saturday night as the quake struck at a remote spot in the Pacific Ocean 874 kilometres (542 miles) south of the capital, the US Geological Survey said.

Despite its power, there was no risk of a tsunami as its epicentre was a deep 676 kilometres below the Earth's surface, the USGS and the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Points: 95227 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 31 2015 at 7:39am
http://earthboppin.net/talkshop/geology/


ENENews.com – Energy News

“Very chilling warning” from Japan expert who foretold Fukushima meltdowns: “The Gods are warning us of something even more serious… incredibly disastrous” — Professor: Suddenly, our sun is doing very strange things… Crisis much worse than Carrington Event possible… Most unstable period since ice age, I’m very concerned about nuclear plants (VIDEO)

Published: May 26th, 2015 at 12:28 pm ET 
By ENENews 
Email Article Email Article 
 

Katsuhiko Ishibashi, Seismologist and Emeritus professor at Kobe Univ., Apr 28, 2015 (at 38:00 in): “This really is what I think… The Gods of this huge nature are actually warning the people of the Japanese archipelago in steps… In 2003, there was an earthquake that shook a nuclear plant where the design basis went over the standard seismic motion… Then 2007 at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa… a direct, serious hit — and yet the Japanese people did not listen. Then it gave us Fukushima… The Gods are warning us that something even more serious can happen in this Japanese archipelago. And of course nuclear power plant accidents can result not just by earthquake. It could have an incredible, serious effect. It has been dishing it out step-by-step, warning us toward something that actually could be incredibly disastrous” … Moderator: fccj_KI“Very chilling warning” (Japan Times, May 1, 2015: “In 1997, [Ishibashi] wrote a report… where he coined the term “nuclear earthquake disaster.” The paper was written about 14 years before the Fukushima disaster, yet reads like a post-mortem of what happened: A major quake knocks out external power to the plant’s reactors and unleashes a tsunami… leading to loss of cooling and meltdowns.”
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Points: 95227 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 03 2015 at 12:36am
With several very deep earthquakes http://dutchsinse.com/6022015-extremely-deep-4-9m-earthquake-near-japan-7-8m-epicenter-location/ and http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us20002ljp#general_summary  the outlook for a major earthquake is not looking good. http://dutchsinse.com/2202015-mystery-of-the-earths-tectonic-plate-movement-solved-by-professionals-the-asthenosphere/

But I do not want to spoil a birthday !
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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