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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

One year on

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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: One year on
    Posted: March 10 2021 at 11:19pm

Our radio news this morning reported that it is a year since WHO formally declared a pandemic  (this site went to level 6 long before that).  

Over 115 million confirmed cases and 2.5 million deaths.   I wonder what year two will bring.


Stay safe everyone.



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ViQueen24 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2021 at 8:46am

One year ago today was the last day I worked.  The afternoon of 3/12, my workplace called me and told me it was cutting back, and that full-time employees were being cut to 24 hrs./week and part-time to 12.  It was arranged that I would work Tuesdays and Wednesdays 4-10.  Then the next day the plaza closed for 10 days, followed by the news that all of us that didn't work in the flagship restaurant or on the cleaning detail were furloughed.  They said they thought it would be for less than 6 months but I knew better.  I had been at that plaza for just shy of 23 years, and had therefore the highest salary of one not in management.  Why would they bring me back at my salary when they could bring a kid in off the street for 25 or more percent less $?

I was so relieved and grateful to not have to go out there, to be able to be safe at home, except for the shopping trips.  To work on my home, which needed some renovations that I could do.  And when case levels really soared here in the fall, I started just getting everything delivered, and only going out to get my mother's pain meds.

Where I'm at now is still grateful.  Still getting alot done around my home.  Not missing my old job.  But starting to feel like I want to be out there earning a paycheck again.  At a good job.  And a little concerned at having to start all over at a new job.  

It is plain to me that when I retire in about 12 years, I'm going to need to find something to do to feel like I'm contributing to society somehow or I'm not going to be happy.  I would not trade this time with my mother (and my cat) for anything.  We all get so busy, we don't pay attention or prioritize what really matters.  But the last year, my mother and I have had a chance to really talk, and when she has wanted to to that, there has been nothing pressing to do, so I have just dropped what I was doing and talked with her.  It makes a huge difference.  She's 82, and who knows how much longer I have with her?  This time has been a blessing in that way.  But so many people have suffered.  And we can only hope and pray that with herd immunity, we will get out of the woods, and that this past year will fade into something that we will all more or less come back from.

Well, I'm being ridiculously sappy tor me, for which I hope you will forgive me.  I have come to AFT everyday the past 14 months to stay aware and up on things, and I sure commend everyone for their contributions, and am very grateful this site is here.  Kudos, mods, and thanks, Albert!

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Technophobe View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2021 at 10:01am

One year and seven days ago, we shut the door, the gate and made a second gate further along the drive.  We placed a large box on our drive (outside the gates) for post and deliveries from the supermarket.  We stuck a sign on the door saying we were in isolation and posted a notice on facebook*.

Since then Hubby and I left home once to get his first vaccine dose and tomorrow we go out again to get mine and Technobrat's.  That is it!  

As if that was not paranoid enough, I'm still amassing preps.   





*Facebook message read.

MY DOORS ARE CLOSED NOW.  HOWEVER MUCH I LOVE YOU, YOU WILL NOT BE INVITED IN. 
Covid-19 is in the Grampian area.  
THERE ARE NO EXCEPTIONS!
If you want my help with anything - phone me.                                           We stuck to it.
Believers don't need proof and sceptics won't accept proof.
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CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (3) Thanks(3)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2021 at 2:39pm

One year ago today, I called an associate at Univ of IL who specializes in pandemic preparedness....we spoke long and hard about this one.  

Most in public health (and on our previous forum, Avian Flu Talk) were geared up for a pandemic caused by avian flu, i.e. H5N1 or H7N9, etc.   This may STILL happen, but because the "experts" were so focused on the shiny object, they missed the obvious pathogen in the wings = cononavirus, related to 2003 SARS. 

Well, if you are reading this, you probably made it through!!  Widespread vaccination is the beginning of developing herd immunity, and the mRNA vaccines are brilliant innovations....since influenza is another RNA virus, this technology may help us to conquer flu once and for all. 

I'll admit that I was wrong on many points:

a) I initially underestimated the severity of the pathogen, as did most - data out of China was misleading, and the US and global disease experience showed that this was not a "cold virus" or equivalent to influenza, but worse, although not as deadly as 2003 SARS was; 

b) I followed "common public health knowledge" about masks and downplayed their significance.  In fact, we in the West (USA) didn't have many masks to select from, as our politicians did not restock our Strategic National Stockpile after the Swine Flu pandemic!   I was somewhat seduced by the opinions of colleagues in universities, and regret that I parroted their poor advice.  Our fellow citizens in Asia who often wear masks showed us that this was, in fact, the best pathway forward. 

c) I also underestimated the rush for common household supplies, ie. toilet paper (loo paper), paper towels, bottled water etc.!!  As a longtime prepper, we never ran out, but it was very disquieting to go to stores denuded of paper, cleaning products, many types of foods etc.  Prepping helped us to avoid any real propblems.  

d) However, i did antinipate the run on firearms and ammunition in the USA and made sure that I had adequate supplies for what I thought would be necessary.  The racial unrest after the killing of George Floyd was not pandemic related, but certainly threw fuel on the fire.  To this day, common ammunition is in short supply.  

WE MADE IT!!  Hang in there, wear your masks, wash your hands (damn virus is spread by fecal/oral), and don't push too quickly to jam into a crowded nightclub or concert!!  We did that here in Arizona once, and cases exploded.  

Folks, a pandemic such as this is a once in 100 year event....take a moment to reflect on how we all acted and performed.  I'm proud of each and every one of you and consider you all to be my friends. 

Cheers, Charles the DrPH in Arizona, USA 

CRS, DrPH
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Technophobe View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 12 2021 at 5:20am

You were only half wrong on the masks, Chuck.  You taught me to wear mine properly.


As to the toilet paper, who knew?   Not I - but I was stocked up on it, thanks only  to KiwiMum, who mentioned such preps (in general) some time ago and got me thinking.


Yes the type of pathogen surprised everyone.  We dodged the dangerous bus, the big truck and the fast sportscar, only to be run over by the kid on a push bike.  A coronavirus was less likely than a flu and therein lies a lesson for all of us, not just you.  Life is full of surprises.


So don't beat yourself up over it.  You were not wrong, just a little inaccurate on some of the smaller details.  That is the best prediction score anyone can get - ever. Compare it with Cobber's: "It will all be over with the US election.", or Medclinician's usual: "The sky is falling!" You did really well overall. You are one of the reasons we outperform the usual curve of predictions on AFT.  Remember that.

Believers don't need proof and sceptics won't accept proof.
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roni3470 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 12 2021 at 5:45pm

A year ago, when I saw some of the posts coming out of China before they really started censoring things......well, I knew we were in for something.  When they were building hospitals in 3 days, I knew.  We all knew.  We just didn't know.  haha

NOW is the Season to Know

that Everything you Do

is Sacred
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CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 12 2021 at 8:13pm

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

You were only half wrong on the masks, Chuck.  You taught me to wear mine properly.

Thank you, dear!  I was wrongly "seduced" by people at my own institution:

https://publichealth.uic.edu/news-stories/commentary-masks-for-all-for-covid-19-not-based-on-sound-data/

Quite honestly, our public health infrastructure (CDC, state/local health departments, universities and others) let us down badly from the outset!!  

a)  They didn't even predict the possibility of a resurgence of the SARS coronavirus, and rather haughtily declared the virus to be "extinct."  (hint - it is very hard to declare a virus extinct, as we don't know all of the animal reservoirs and other hiding places!)

b) We could have had an early jump on the US outbreak of the CDC weren't so arrogant about THEIR test being the one to use, vs. South Korea or WHO test!  This lost many valuable weeks, due to unforeseen contamination of the CDC tests: 

https://www.pharmacist.com/article/cdc-coronavirus-test-kits-were-likely-contaminated-federal-review-confirms

c)  The Trump administration shut down our NSC pandemic surveillance mechanism since they thought it was redundant with bioterrorism surveillance!!  John Bolton's stupidity was largely responsible....there is a world of difference between monitoring for naturally occurring pandemic agents and bioterrorism agents, but he stupidly thought that, since both required infectious epidemiologists etc., they were equivalent.  WRONG! 

I could go on.  We should now be generating a universal influenza vaccine using the mRNA tools we have at our disposal - one vaccine could take out seasonal H1N1 strains, potential pandemic H5N1 and H7N9 varieties, swine flu variants etc.  However, I see us making the same stupid mistakes all over again....if H7N9 were to emerge suddenly, we'd be as badly prepared as we were for COVID-19.  

Be safe, Techno and everyone!!  I'm working as hard as I can on many different topics, and it pains me to see so many people suffer needlessly.  

CRS, DrPH
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 13 2021 at 9:22am

I stupidly suffered from "analysis paralysis" and watched horrified as the pandemic unfolded in January and February rather than buying some more masks, gloves and TP.  Future generations who are reading this to find out how 21st century humans dealt with a pandemic -- don't do that!!!  You always think you have more time.  You don't!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 13 2021 at 3:01pm

One year on,

Apart from not being able to leave the state,and losing my dear mother in law to Covid 19...

We haven't been touched by this pandemic,

I have always said on here ,I live in the safest place in the world to survive a pandemic, providing it doesn't start here....

Our Premier listened to the science,not some snake oil salesmen,

Feel sorry for all that have and still are suffering ......

Take care all ๐Ÿ˜ท๐Ÿ˜‰

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.๐Ÿ––

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2021 at 10:09am

I fear its not over yet. The 3 rd wave is hitting Europe hard. Just wait the US is about to come out of this lull just like Europe COVID will have the last laugh because we humans don’t learn from our mistakes

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2021 at 7:37am

You're right, I'm afraid, Usk.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 24 2021 at 2:52pm

Originally posted by ViQueen24 ViQueen24 wrote:

I stupidly suffered from "analysis paralysis" and watched horrified as the pandemic unfolded in January and February rather than buying some more masks, gloves and TP.  

I get why, Vi.  Who'd have thought? 


 A year ago, I was six weeks into a self-imposed lockdown.  Getting deliveries instead of going out.  And... thanking my lucky stars that because of my vision issues I had more toilet paper than you could shake a stick at the previous December (I bought two 2-packs of 48 per not seeing it was a 2 pack).  I also had a sort of "event horizon" timeline of February 28th where I needed to be prepped and ready before there was no going back.  Glad I did.   After lockdown here in NYC there were precious few delivery slots open for months.  

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