Dlugose - thanks for the info on the bulbs. What type of hybrid do you have?

Today in the morning paper there was an article that said as tundra thaws it is releasing a bucket load of methane gas which is some X times factor worse that CO2 and the scientists are all worked up now because its going to real hot and then we'll all die. But then again, we are all going to die someday anyway so party on!!! Drink that beer while it can be chilled.   

Climate has always changed, why are we worried now and why does it have to be humans fault?


Answer:

Yes, climate has varied in the past and it has varied for many different reasons, some better understood than others. The present day climate change is very well understood and is different. Simply noting that something happened before without humans does not in any logical way show that humans are not causing it today.

For example, we see in ice core records from Antarctica and Greenland that the world cycled in and out of glacial periods over 120Kyr cycles. The cause for that climate cycle's timing is fairly well understood to be the results of changes in the orbit of the Earth, though the mechanism behind the resulting response has not been conclusively established. These orbital cycles are regular and predictable and they are definately not the cause of today's warming. The other important difference between the glacial-interglacial cycles and today is the rapidity of the current change. The rate of warming is on the order of 10 times faster today than seen in the ice cores.

Such rapid warming on a global scale is very rare in the geological record, and while it may not be unprecedented, there is very strong evidence that whenever such a change has happened, whatever the cause, it was a catastrophic event for the biosphere.

Speculation on global warming is as interesting as speculation on pandemic flu but in both cases there are practical issues that really do effect us now.

Expect the cost of fossil fuel to be forced ever higher due to increased taxation. Expect environmental taxes on virtually everything. Try to arrange your lives in a way that gives you an edge.

In colder climates with hard winters insulation is a sure bet. If you live a long distance from your place of work then move your job or move your home. If you depend on air travel then be prepared for some serious cost increases. This show is coming to a cinema near you and its coming soon. Not your grand children but you. Stay ahead of the game and reap the rewards. Leave the scientific speculation to the dreamers and keep your eye on the ball. Read my lips. More new taxes.

Actually, there was a big find this week in the Gulf of Mexico.  Other than that, you are right on, Mahshadin. Keep it up!

We too gave up our pick up truck. Mainly because the payments were over $500 a month, sucking up gas, insurance sky high, wear and tear plus up keep....we have been putting that money towards paying our home off...we have a long way to go but it's a start.

We homeschool and I work from home so if we need to go anywhere we wait for hubby to get home...or since my dad died about 2 years ago, mom doesn't drive...so her little station wagon sits in the garage. She lives next door so once a week I take her shopping in that and I try to get my stuff done at the same time.
I don't miss a 2nd vehicle at all. We live in the country, hubby works 35 miles away so we do need at least one vehicle:O)

DISPENSER 4 HIR wrote: I may be wrong, but I seen to remember hearing something about there being ice-ages, then warming, then ice-ages, then warming in the history of Earth? I have also heard the sun goes through cycles where it is hotter, then cooler. The orbit of the Earth around the sun is not a constant circle, but slowly changes from a circle to an eliptical orbit. I tend to doubt predictions of climate change when predictions of next months weather seems to be so difficult. I also think the body heat from 6 billion people has as much effect on the global temperature as driving cars. You are certainly free to dissagree with me, just as I am free to dissagree with you.

some people simply don't get in. But if the light doesn't ever come on, then at least we've saved some NRG

.
    

Political talking points are not hard science.  I guess for those of us still alive in 10 years we can see if the Earth is burning up, cooling down, or neither.

jofg

It was a sweeping statement I agree, so I went and tried to find where I read it.

I did find this one:

World cereal demand to outstrip supply
Global food import bill forecast to increase by over 2 percent in 2006

FAONEWSRELEASE 06/65 e

Rome, 8 June 2006 -- World cereal demand is forecast to surpass supply in the coming 2006/07 marketing year, pushing down stocks to an uncomfortably low level and continuing the steady upward trend in prices, according to the June issue of FAO’s Food Outlook report.

“Amid political uncertainties and surging energy prices, agricultural markets over the past year have also had to confront abnormal incidences of natural disasters, ranging from devastating hurricanes to fast spreading animal diseases,” the report said.

“Based on current indications, several agricultural commodities are likely to experience still more unstable months ahead and, in most instances, the fundamentals point to even further gains in prices,” according to the report.

Food import bill growing, especially for poorest countries

FAO is forecasting an increase of over 2 percent in the world food import bill in 2006 compared to 2005. The increase is expected to be strongest for cereals and sugar and smallest for meat. Given their higher share as importers of food and feed, the developing countries’ bill is forecast to grow by 3.5 percent, while that of low-income food-deficit countries is forecast to jump by nearly 7 percent.

Wheat
According to the report, a 10 million tonne decrease in world wheat production is forecast this year, with a strong demand outlook set to drive up world trade in 2006/07 to 110 million tonnes. The world balance sheet for 2006/07 is expected to show a sharp drop in ending stocks as well as a decline in the stocks-to-use ratio to 25 percent, the lowest in over three decades.

Against this background and even barring any major or unexpected weather problems in the coming months, wheat prices are likely to remain generally high and volatile in the new season, FAO said.

Coarse grains
International prices have started to strengthen in recent months, supported by a robust demand from the ethanol sector, a potential recovery in feed use and tighter export supplies. World coarse grain production in 2006 is forecast to decline by 13 million tonnes, but trade is tentatively forecast to remain unchanged in 2006/07, at around 105 million tonnes. On current production indications, the new season’s supply and demand balance will be tight, with a sharp anticipated fall in world stocks and a near-record low stocks-to-use ratio of around 15 percent.

Sugar
World sugar prices reached their highest level in 25 years in February 2006, when raw sugar prices exceeded US¢19 per pound. The major factors underpinning these price levels were unprecedented rises in crude oil prices, as well as the continued supply deficit in the world sugar market for the third consecutive year.

In 2005/06, world sugar production is set to grow by 3 percent to 149.7 million tonnes, with consumption rising by 2 percent to 149.9 million tonnes. Developing countries are expected to account for most of the increases, particularly those with strong economic performances, such as China and India. Consumption in developed countries is expected to remain stagnant, due to low population growth and dietary concerns. For the remainder of 2005/06, world sugar prices are expected to remain firm at current levels, the report said.

Meat and meat products
After a brief recovery in 2005, global meat markets have again been unsettled by animal disease concerns in 2006. Consumer responses to the increasing incidence of avian influenza, together with disease-related bans on North American beef and South American red meat exports, are largely shaping meat markets in 2006.

Expectations of the lowest meat consumption gains in 25 years, uncertain price prospects and escalating trade restrictions in 2006 are expected to limit global meat output to 272 million tonnes. Meanwhile, trade is expected to reach 20.5 million tonnes, up only marginally, in response to sluggish global poultry import demand from major markets and the imposition of animal disease-related trade bans.

The June issue of Food Outlook introduces a new format. The new Food Outlook will be published twice a year and will focus on developments affecting global markets for food and feed commodities.

Contact:
Information Officer, FAO
teresamarie.buerkle@fao.org
(+39) 06 570 56146
(+39) 348 141 6671

liknk to article

Scotty wrote: Fenwulfr: No one has yet proved that pumping millions of tons of poison, polution and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere is beneficial.

deleted

I just love baiting true believers, who are so enraptured by their doctrine, that any challenge or deviation is met with cries of heresy. LOL  I can see you all wisely nodding your heads and agreeing the poor man is disturbed and must be helped in spite himself.  I swear you are two steps away from crying "Witch! Burn him!"

So what is it about this subject that bothers you so much that you would resort to personal insults, and attempts to discredit what you do not understand.

 

Ya I got that

Scotty wrote: there may come a time when an 1890's lifestyle starts to look quite appealing.

In the UK that means tall hats and itchy clothes and corsets?
Not sure about that
In the US it must mean cowboys and Indians
     

Dear Mahshadin~  Thank you for posting this info.  I am learning a great deal.  I have never really had time to understand most of the more complex aspects of global warming.  Some of the more technical issues are still over my head...but, I feel like I have a clearer picture.  Please continue this thread.  Sincerely, JD

Your welcome   JD

KevO wrote: [QUOTE=DISPENSER 4 HIR]  But hey look at the west, capitalism failed.

The Siberian permafrost is now melting. The trapped methane is now bubbling out of the mud. Current estimates suggest that this will more than double the existing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Whilst many of us choose to debate its existence, global warming has already become self-sustaining.

In its 2001 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated, "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities." [3] Carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning and land clearing has been accumulating in the atmosphere, where it acts like a blanket keeping Earth warm and heating up the surface, ocean, and atmosphere. As a result, current levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are higher than at any time during the last 650,000 years. [4,5,6]

Background: Driving the Climate ("Forcing")

Climate is influenced by many factors, both natural and human. [7] Things that increase temperature, such as increases in heat-trapping emissions from cars and power plants or an increase in the amount of radiation the sun emits, are examples of "positive" forcings or drivers. Volcanic events and some types of human-made pollution, both of which inject sunlight-reflecting aerosols into the atmosphere, lower temperature and are examples of "negative" forcings or drivers. Natural climate drivers include the sun's energy output, aerosols from volcanic activity, and changes in snow and ice cover. Human climate drivers include heat-trapping emissions from cars and power plants, aerosols from pollution, and soot particles.

Much as the Air Force develops computer programs to simulate aircraft flight under different conditions, climate scientists develop computer programs to simulate global climate changes under different conditions. These programs use our knowledge of physical, chemical, and biological processes that occur within Earth's atmosphere and oceans and on its land surfaces. Mathematical models allow scientists to simulate the behavior of complex systems such as climate and explore how these systems respond to natural and human factors.

Fingerprint 1: The Ocean Layers Warm

The world's oceans have absorbed about 20 times as much heat as the atmosphere over the past half-century, leading to higher temperatures not only in surface waters but also in water 1,500 feet below the surface. [8,9] The measured increases in water temperature lie well outside the bounds of natural climate variation. 

Fingerprint 2: The Atmosphere Shifts

Recent research shows that human activities have lifted the boundary of Earth's lower atmosphere. Known as the troposphere (from the Greek tropos, which means "turning"), this lowest layer of the atmosphere contains Earth's weather. The stable layer above is called the stratosphere. The boundary that separates the two layers, the tropopause, is as high as nine miles above the equator and as low as five miles above the poles. In an astounding development, a 2003 study showed that this tropopause has shifted upward over the last two decades by more than 900 feet. [10] The rising tropopause marks another human fingerprint on Earth's climate.

In their search for clues, scientists compared two natural drivers of climate (solar changes and volcanic aerosols) and three human drivers of climate (heat-trapping emissions, aerosol pollution, and ozone depletion), altering these one at a time in their sophisticated models. Changes in the sun during the twentieth century have warmed both the troposphere and stratosphere. But human activities have increased heat-trapping emissions and decreased stratospheric ozone. This has led to the troposphere warming more because the increase in heat-trapping emissions is trapping more of Earth's outgoing heat. The stratosphere has cooled more because there is less ozone to absorb incoming sunlight to heat up the stratosphere. Both these effects combine to shift the boundary upward. Over the period 1979-1999, a study shows that human-induced changes in heat-trapping emissions and ozone account for more than 80 percent of the rise in tropopause height. [10] This is yet another example of how science detectives are quantifying the impact of human activities on climate. 

Fingerprint 3: The Surface Heats Up

Measurements show that global average temperature has risen by 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit in the last 100 years, with most of that happening in the last three decades. [1,2] By comparing Earth's temperature over that last century with models comparing climate drivers, a study showed that, from 1950 to the present, most of the warming was caused by heat-trapping emissions from human activities [3]. In fact, heat-trapping emissions are driving the climate about three times more strongly now than they were in 1950. The spatial pattern of where this warming is occurring around the globe indicates human-induced causes. Even accounting for the occasional short-lived cooling from volcanic events and moderate levels of cooling from aerosol pollution as well as minor fluctuations in the sun's output in the last 30 years, heat-trapping emissions far outweigh any other current climate driver. Once again, our scientific fingerprinting identifies human activities as the main driver of our warming climate.