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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

PA Resident on life support in Japan

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Sheep Lady View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sheep Lady Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: PA Resident on life support in Japan
    Posted: February 28 2020 at 12:17pm
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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 28 2020 at 11:53pm
The CFR for the Diamond Princess will keep rising.

[Deleted, as I messed up a spreadsheet and copied data without checking]


The strike rate/penetration (ie numbers who got sick) is only about 19%. This seems low compared to other estimates of how it would spread.
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Little House View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Little House Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 29 2020 at 5:19am

Let’s do that math again.  705 people infected; 4 dead.  Divide 4 by 705 and you get 0.56%. This is a far cry from 4%.  Still 5 times worse than seasonal flu, but less than one percent. 

Divide 6 by 705 and you get 0.85%.  8 times worse than the seasonal flu.

Divide 705 by 3011 (the number of people on the ship who were tested) and you get 23%. 


For some more interesting numbers, lets divide 40 (the number of critical plus the number who died) and divide it by 705.  You get 5.6%  This is the number of people who were infected and needed to be in the hospital.

These numbers don’t sound so bad, but let’s do some more math.  If 23% of 1000 people get sick that is 230 people infected.  5.6% of 230 is more than 12.  That means 12 people out of every thousand would need to be in the hospital.  Here in the states, we have 4 hospital beds for every 1000 people. 


But, on the other hand, the Diamond princess was a confined area.  Maybe we won’t have so many infected.  The Diamond princess had a lot of older people on it.  Maybe not so many will need to be hospitalized.  Maybe it won’t be so bad... (Read my sarcasm and wishful thinking into that last sentence.)

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purereason View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote purereason Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 29 2020 at 6:14am

In fairness the 705 infected are not the actual number in total. Many ex Princess passengers have been diagnosed as infected after returning to their countries.

Six people have been reported as having died on the ship, just not sure how many more have died after returning home.

Think there is a long way to go before we can come to any sort of accurate infection or mortality rate for this virus. Also doesn't help that most countries seem to have differing criterea on their reporting


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Little House View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Little House Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 29 2020 at 6:25am

Interesting.  I thought that all of the infected were taken off the ship to Japanese hospitals.  The number of deaths is increasing, so they must be counting those who are dying in Japanese hospitals.  But you are right in that I have no idea of whether or not those who have been infected after leaving the ship were counted, and if those who die in other countries are counted.

You are right that it is almost impossible to get accurate numbers.  In the end, the only numbers that will matter are the ones that directly affect each person and their family.

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ksc View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 29 2020 at 6:39am

Here's a little data from https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ 


  • Japan: The 705 people from the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship are listed separately and they’re not included in the Japanese government’s official count. 380 were asymptomatic. Fourteen of them are U.S. citizens whose test results weren’t known until they were taken off the ship.
  • Diamond Princess: The total does not include 3 employees of Japan’s Health Ministry and 1 staff member of Japan’s Cabinet Secretariat, all of whom were infected while working on the ship. It does also not include people who tested positive upon their return home: 44 people in the U.S., 8 in Australia, 4 in the UK, 4 in Hong Kong, 3 in Israel, and 2 in Japan.
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Little House View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Little House Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 29 2020 at 7:21am

Thank you!

That brings the total infected to 26%.

The CFR is 0.8%

The number not given is the number of serious cases, but if we use the 40 number reported in other places the number of people needing hospital care is 5.2 percent.

Put these numbers together and for every 1000 people you have more than 13 people who need to be hospitalized.  (Remember the US has 4 hospital beds for every 1000 people.  Some areas a bit more, some areas a bit less.) 

It is not the deaths that scare me, it is the lack of medical care that increases deaths...  I should research surge capacity.  I don’t have any idea how fast hospitals could ramp up to deal with larger numbers.

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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 29 2020 at 9:08am

Oops... I must have set up my spreadsheet wrong, and didn't check it.   [Oh my embarrassment]

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Little House View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Little House Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2020 at 3:53am

No problem, can’t tell you how many times that has happened to me.

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