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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Pandemic Alert Level

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carbon20 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 06 2020 at 4:51pm
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 06 2020 at 5:05pm

The Conversation AU: 100 days without COVID-19: how New Zealand got rid of a virus that keeps spreading across the world.

https://theconversation.com/100-days-without-covid-19-how-new-zealand-got-rid-of-a-virus-that-keeps-spreading-across-the-world-143672

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 06 2020 at 5:07pm

Well done the Kiwi's

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 06 2020 at 6:36pm

Interestingly, we here in NZ were all asked yesterday to get ourselves a mask in readiness for when the virus reappears here. I went shopping this morning and people were happily buying them and accepting that it's a good idea. A friend rang to ask me what our mask situation was like. I told her I'll be making the Olsen mask for my family. I'll make us two each, for variety, and they are washable and will be quick to dry. I bought a pair of extra large gym pants this morning to use as fabric and will buy some high thread count pillowcases to use that fabric as the lining. I've seen some 1500 Eygptian cotton ones, so I'll get a pair of those and cut them up. 

By and large Kiwis are coping with it just fine I think.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 07 2020 at 10:25am

Just fine?

You put everyone else to shame, the world over!

How do you fancy sharing Ardern with the rest of us?

ERCD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 07 2020 at 9:02pm

Dont worry folks we will all be exposed to Covid. Maybe not today or tomorrow, but some day it will transmit through our community. I don't believe it can ever be stopped. I believe this virus will be here forever. Just like the flu or cold. 

I say let the community get it in a controlled way as they did in Sweden and build herd immunity and lets get on with business as they have done. Sweden took a completely different approach to Covid. look it up (if you can...Google jail)

Don't believe the media hype, as its a political beat up.


Carbon; I don't fear Covid.  Bring it on i say. 

Its a powderpuff.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2020 at 1:41am

It is all very well to call this a powderpuff, if no one you love is threatened by it.  It is only such a small percentage of each population because governments the world over are frantically, maniaclly trying to suppress it.  Hospitals are still overrun in many places and it has only been in Globally-wide circulation since May - 3 months!  Spanish flu took a little over 2 years to kill its millions.  In any pandemic the larger numbers come at the end, not the beginning.

Having said all that, it is now here to stay; since several governments did not move fast enough to stop it at the start (mentioning no names..... Boris, Donald, Jair) they called it a powderpuff too.

ERCD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2020 at 3:11am

Definitely here to stay,

Can't see a vaccine...happening....

Have to learn to cope  with it,

I do wonder how we will open up.......

take care allπŸ˜·πŸ˜‰


Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2020 at 5:28am

Careful what you wish for, Cobber, fate has a way of taking you at your word.  Someone I worked with once trivialized an ordeal I went through till she watched her sister go through something similar.  Do you love anyone who is vulnerable?  Because maybe it won't be you that gets it first or badly.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2020 at 7:05am

Thanks for the question, Cobber, and great replies and input from everyone.  Much appreciated.  

This forum was designed more-so for a category 5 pandemic, and for more of a slate-wiper (an avian flu pandemic) lol, so any pandemic will seem powderpuff compared to that scenario. 

Either way you slice, it's a pandemic.  A Cat-2 Pandemic is still a pandemic none the less.   After Wave 2 this winter and once we are in the post pandemic phase, we will downgrade the alert level potentially to level 1, as covid-19 will become more seasonal with the vaccine and it will become a way of life.   Downgrading the Alert Level prior to Wave Two, which will be a severe and avoidable event, unfortunately can't happen at this time. 

Don't let your guards down too soon and before W-2.       



Thank you again for the great input!  

A


https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MamaBear4 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2020 at 9:29am

I read everything about New Zealand and containment. It is wonderful that everything is good there. The main difference is border control and the population. In the USA the borders are very porous. Our president was highly criticized for stopping travel from China.  There also was misinformation about masks. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2020 at 11:22pm

Interesting chart, Albert.


The USA is reporting a CFR of 3.2% so by this measure the Pandemic should be at level 5 (top level).

I do not know the current projection for number of deaths but using recent figures (~160,000) then by this metric the USA is currently at level 2 (near the bottom).  From the data, as it is now, it would be reasonable to say that level 3 will be reached (over 450,000 deaths) by the end of the pandemic.


So on these matrices one should say that it is fair that the USA is currently at the top level of the pandemic scale.  

To bring the level down will require much more (and faster) testing.   In general the more testing that is done the closer the CFR figure comes to the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), which some estimates put at around 0.6 - 0.8%.   This would indicate a pandemic level of 3.  


I have no crystal ball to determine the outcome other than projecting current trends (and I know trends change) but it is looking to me that this might end up as a Level 3 pandemic - serious (far more than a 'powder puff') but nowhere near making a major dent on the population levels of the country.


ps. If the IFR estimate is correct and deaths are accurately recorded then the USA case load should be around 27 million, not the 5 million reported. This is still less than 10% of the population, and the CDC chart estimated a 30% infection rate, so only about 1/3rd of the way through this outbreak. Hold tight for a long ride.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2020 at 7:33am

Yes, hopefully there will be good and effective vaccine, Albert.  Not optimistic, though.

Edwin, currently US testing is becoming, if anything, less efficient.  Officials are talking about going to a test that will be quicker, but will have many inaccurate results.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 19 2020 at 1:05pm

So here we are ten days later...

The CFR is 0.3% exactly what we calculated in February from the cruise ships. 

Don't take my word 

The CDC's figures discussed


Every country now has a vaccine. Panic over people. The hysteria fading.

We just have to get past the election and the media will stop. 

I give it six months and you will all be calling it a powderpuff

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 19 2020 at 3:22pm

Everyone is buying vaccines.  But that is not the whole story.

For instance, Britain has bought 5 different vaccines.  Sorry that is six now, I think, I'm losing track.

Why so many?  -  Because there is only a small chance any one will work.

This is far from over.

ERCD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 19 2020 at 3:34pm

Over 4,500 deaths per day and cumulative of nearly 790,000 deaths worldwide.  Nothing to see here.  

Of the 15,264,162 resolved cases deaths are 789,128.  Hard and fast division puts that CFR at closer to .5% not .3%.  

We'll have an effective vaccine in under two years when it usually takes three to five years to develop an effective vaccine.  Not to worry!  

As an aside, things I've read state the CFR of Spanish influenza was .025 to .027 over the three waves.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 19 2020 at 4:45pm
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 19 2020 at 4:51pm

5





Over ?

We haven't seen the start yet.....

Wait until the northern hemisphere gets into cold and flu season......

(seems it didn't disappear in the heat)

Not over by along way yet  .....

Keep safe all 

πŸ˜·πŸ˜‰

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 19 2020 at 6:48pm

The larger question begs to be asked.  Is this new mutation less deadly?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 19 2020 at 9:17pm

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

The larger question begs to be asked.  Is this new mutation less deadly?

Have to wait and see....

About alot of things associated with this virus.....that we don't know yet.....

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2020 at 4:41am

Either way... we all need to gird our loins.  The second wave is here.  

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