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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

pandemic breakfast

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2022 at 2:59am

twitter problems...









Create a financial crash by tax cuts for the rich & then ask the public to 'prepare for a new age of austerity' This isn't incompetence- it's a plan to enrich Tories/Tory allies, deregulate business, strip public services, welfare, destroy the environment, and privatise the NHS

-

Have no doubt- in this plan inequalities will rise even further, healthcare & education will be further devastated, and those with the least protections will struggle & suffer - with food and fuel poverty. While the top 1% get richer on the backs of the most disadvantaged.

and








🚨 TODAY 🚨 The largest wave of simultaneous protest in Britain in years. 50 towns and cities will take to the streets against this government. We say #EnoughIsEnough 👊 Join us: http://wesayenough.co.uk/oct1

DJ...no doubt state/billionaire owned "media" mostly will ignore protests...

In the US;








U.S. COVID update: More than 600 new deaths - New cases: 90,483 - Average: 49,689 (-650) - States reporting: 28/50 - In hospital: 28,257 (-167) - In ICU: 3,455 (-29) - New deaths: 616 - Average: 451 (-22)

DJ...so 22 US states simply stopped reporting CoViD cases...

Australia;


Australia will be a nice one to keep an eye on, because they have the top 5 of fastest growing variants. The last week is still prelimary. And numbers are still low, but that might change quickly. Data from GISAID.

and

Replying to 
One wonders about AU advisers. How does a decision get made that says if you do nothing it will outweigh by orders of magnitude cost of simple NPIs, further will⬆️hospitalisation, long covid & death?🤦‍♀️#RespsOn #CovidisAirborne #CovidIsNotOver #SimpleNPIs #PrecautionaryPrinciple

end of this part 3b...it is nice weather outside...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2022 at 10:06am

The MoA Week In Review - (Not Ukraine) OT 2022-163

Last week's posts on Moon of Alabama:

bigger

> The US views the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines as a “tremendous opportunity” to wean the continent off of Russian energy, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters on Friday. With winter approaching, Blinken said that the US wants Europe to decrease its fuel use. <

Beguiling the traitors:

Secretary Antony Blinken @SecBlinken - 15:59 UTC · Sep 29, 2022

Congratulations to my friend and German Foreign Minister @ABaerbock on being named to @TIME Magazine’s 2022 #TIME100 Next List. Thank you for your steadfast support for democracy, freedom, and human rights during challenging times.
2022 TIME100 Next: Annalena Baerbock


DJ...The Duran [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMWtgKP2ZdM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMWtgKP2ZdM on the collapse of the Euro, UK pound...Hungary planning to jump out of NATO/EU "Titanic"...lack of any US leadership, vision, plan...

Related [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-the-covid-19-enquiry-cover-up-begins/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-the-covid-19-enquiry-cover-up-begins/ ;

“The inquiry is becoming a farce and an exercise in cover-up.”.

After the complete shipshow that was the British government’s response to Covid-19, plans are afoot to ensure that the Covid-19 inquiry doesn’t reach any useful conclusions by excluding witnesses from giving evidence about the care that their relatives received, writes The Guardian.

DJ...there is music to love...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALlkMv21a7s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALlkMv21a7s it is "religious"...religion is the basis for any totalitarianism..."people speaking in the name of a (self created) "god"....still good-relaxing, hypnotizing music...from another world...

Stay safe & sane...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2022 at 11:04pm

DJ, 

We expect a bit of [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_summer[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_summer here in NL ...(in Dutch [url]https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazomer[/url] or https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazomer Old Women Summer...an -old-name also showing up in Germany etc...) Music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cN-OCHlfRTU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cN-OCHlfRTU , L'ete Indien - Joe Dassin 1975....(mmm...not the best version...but not a remix...)

I start with music because "the rest" does simply look bad....

"Politics" has been kicking lots of cans down the road..."solving" all problems by printing more money..."Vision", setting goals-just like "public spending" or "tax"were "dirty words"...privatize everything...profits first...

In the crisis we now face we need a very strong public sector...but it has been destroyed by neo-liberal phantasies...So the next banking crisis [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_Suisse#Drug_money_laundering_scandal,_2022[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_Suisse#Drug_money_laundering_scandal,_2022 may be close to collapse....will hit countries very hard...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table Europe cases +9%, Africa +8%...bad statistics-72 countries now reporting an increase of cases...however lots of countries/states simply stopped reporting...More "bird flu" cases have been detected-so far no spread into humans this year...Cholera killing people again in Haïti...Ebola-Uganda [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/ebola/ebola-the-risk-of-international-spread-cannot-be-ruled/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/ebola/ebola-the-risk-of-international-spread-cannot-be-ruled/ ...

"No news is good news" is "hopium" polio, MPX cases may simply not get reported...[url]https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/cases-data/technical-report/report-3.html[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/cases-data/technical-report/report-3.html US-CDC reporting once every four weeks...in that report CDC states 24,846 US cases...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory has 25,851 US cases (last update september 30)...global cases moving towards 74,000 but reporting is "very poor"...just like with CoViD-cases...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-the-covid-19-enquiry-cover-up-begins/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-the-covid-19-enquiry-cover-up-begins/ criminal governments simply do not want to know...

"Politics" did mix with "banksters" (financing drugs, trade in weapons, humans, organs...) the military industrial complex (more war) ...Maybe "politicians" simply did not (want to) know who their partners were...

"Saving the economy=profits" during the pandemic not only worsened the pandemic...it also destroyed the economy...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-early-data-shows-that-ba-2-75-2-and-bq-1-1-is-causing-varied-strange-symptoms-that-are-debilitating-in-many-that-are-infected[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-early-data-shows-that-ba-2-75-2-and-bq-1-1-is-causing-varied-strange-symptoms-that-are-debilitating-in-many-that-are-infected 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-according-to-insurance-claims,-lyme-disease-diagnoses-in-the-united-states-have-exponentially-increased-to-over-357-percent-in-rural-location[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-according-to-insurance-claims,-lyme-disease-diagnoses-in-the-united-states-have-exponentially-increased-to-over-357-percent-in-rural-location 

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2022 at 11:35pm

part 2, twitter;








Some bad news regarding BQ.1.1 is that it escapes all available monoclonal antibody cocktails, even those that are still working against BA.5 Now looks like a pretty good time to get a booster dose if one is eligible. I got mine a week ago.

and

Yunlong Richard Cao

@yunlong_cao
·
As expected, BQ.1.1 escapes Evusheld and bebtelovimab, making all clinically available antibody drugs ineffective. BQ.1.1 and BA.2.75.2 both displayed sufficient hACE2 binding capability. (3/4)

DJ, I expect an invitation for both CoViD-vax/booster and Flu-vax this month...I will accept both in the hope it will offer some protection...








Cornelius Roemer

@CorneliusRoemer
·
With 11 days more data, it is becoming quite clear that BQ.1.1 will drive a variant wave in Europe and North America before the end of November Its relative share has kept more than doubling every week It has taken just 19 days to grow 8-fold from 5 sequences to 200 sequences 1/  twitter.com/CorneliusRoeme…

I admit...I stopped following names...I could write something on pandemic history...how "the plague" killed 100% of the population in some parts of Europe..but also never reached other parts of Europe in the 14th century...After the (major) pandemic shortage of workers did result in higher wages...giving the economy a boost...but that was "then and there" not "here and now"...the outlook now may be a lot worse...There are links between [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_Empire[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_Empire and the plague [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theories_of_the_Black_Death[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theories_of_the_Black_Death but there are also lots of questions...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death_migration#European_outbreak[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death_migration#European_outbreak ;

In 1345 the Mongols under Khan Jani Berg of the Golden Horde besieged Caffa. Suffering from an outbreak of black plague, the Mongols placed plague-infected corpses in catapults and threw them into the city. In October 1347, a fleet of Genoese trading ships fleeing Caffa reached the port of Messina in Sicily.[28] By the time the fleet reached Messina, all the crew members were either infected or dead. It is presumed that the ships also carried infected rats and/or fleas. Some ships were found grounded on shorelines, with no one aboard remaining alive.

Looting of these lost ships also helped spread the disease. From there, the plague spread to Genoa and Venice by the turn of 1347–1348, spreading across Italy.

From Italy the disease spread northwest across Europe, striking France, the Crown of Aragon, the Crown of CastilePortugal and England by June 1348, then turned and spread east through Germany and Scandinavia from 1348 to 1350. It was introduced in Norway in 1349 when a ship landed at Askøy, then proceeded to spread to Bjørgvin (modern Bergen). From Norway it continued to Sweden, by which point it had already spread around Denmark.

Finally it spread to north-eastern Russia in 1351; however, the plague largely spared some parts of Europe, including the Kingdom of Poland, isolated parts of Belgium and the NetherlandsMilan and the modern-day France-Spain border.

At SienaAgnolo di Tura wrote:

"They died by the hundreds, both day and night, and all were thrown in ... ditches and covered with earth. And as soon as those ditches were filled, more were dug. And I, Agnolo di Tura … buried my five children with my own hands … And so many died that all believed it was the end of the world."[29]

DJ...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics ...in many ways pandemics are NOT that abnormal...we did live in a very "ab-normal" time, certainly since 1945...limited wars, climate disasters, diseases....In 1900 average life expectency was 40...something like 10 years extra compared to Roman times...in about a 100 years life expectency increased to 80...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy ; Until the middle of the 20th century, infant mortality was approximately 40–60% of the total mortality. Excluding child mortality, the average life expectancy during the 12th–19th centuries was approximately 55 years. If a medieval person survived childhood, they had about a 50% chance of living 50–55 years, instead of only 25–40 years.[5]

-

Life expectancy increases with age as the individual survives the higher mortality rates associated with childhood. For instance, the table gives the life expectancy at birth among 13th-century English nobles at 30. Having survived to the age of 21, a male member of the English aristocracy in this period could expect to live:[41]

  • 1200–1300: to age 64
  • 1300–1400: to age 45 (because of the bubonic plague)
  • 1400–1500: to age 69
  • 1500–1550: to age 71

17th-century English life expectancy was only about 35 years, largely because infant and child mortality remained high. Life expectancy was under 25 years in the early Colony of Virginia,[52] and in seventeenth-century New England, about 40 percent died before reaching adulthood.[53] During the Industrial Revolution, the life expectancy of children increased dramatically.[54] The under-5 mortality rate in London decreased from 74.5% in 1730–1749 to 31.8% in 1810–1829.[55][56]

Public health measures are credited with much of the recent increase in life expectancy. During the 20th century, despite a brief drop due to the 1918 flu pandemic[57] starting around that time the average lifespan in the United States increased by more than 30 years, of which 25 years can be attributed to advances in public health.[58]

The life expectancy for people reaching adulthood is greater, — ignoring infant and child mortality. For instance, 16th Century English and Welsh women at 15 years may have had an life expectancy of around 35 more years (50 total).[43]

DJ...in many ways one could claim we had "seven golden decades" from 1950 to 2020....but being very lucky was-in history terms-NOT "normal"...

Well this story may have cheered you up ;-) ! 

Music...another of my French favorites; Michel Fugain et le Big Bazar, Les Printemps (Spring...) 1976 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qbk9iDL6txE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qbk9iDL6txE ...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2022 at 10:10pm

DJ, part 1

-international situation/war; 

I expect/hope there are lots of talks on de-escalation. If these talks fail we may see major escalation-possibly into a world War Thee/Nuclear War scenario this week.

I will try to write my update on it in latest-non pandemic-news. Economy-wise a major crisis is unfolding allthough there is not yet news on a major bank collapse. Protests in Europe will escalate...Most European/western governments are NO longer supported by most of the public. 

-Pandemics;

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/bq-1-1/growth-advantage-for-bq-1-1-is-above-100-per-week/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/bq-1-1/growth-advantage-for-bq-1-1-is-above-100-per-week/ ;

The Omicron variant BQ.1.1 appears to be in a prime position to drive the coming winter wave in Europe.

Bioinformatics scientist and variant watcher Cornelius Roemer has published several updates on BQ.1.1 since we first published details on the variant in this post.

On the 21st September, Cornelius Roemer said that “BQ.1.1 is showing quite some growth, especially in England where the first sample was submitted 9 days ago and now there are already 28 sequences. I hope there is some sort of biased sampling going on. Otherwise this doesn’t look good.”

Today’s updates give further details of the growth advantage of BQ.1.1, which is now above 100% per week.

 

“2-3 more days of GISAID data have just appeared on @GenSpectrum. This is a worldwide view, but biased by major uploaders i.e. Europe/North America Growth advantage for BQ.1.1 is stably above 100% per week. BA.2.3.20, mostly Asia so far, can possibly compete.”

 

The latest update shows that, on the 3rd October 2022, that figure of 28 sequences had grown to 200 sequences.

“With 11 days more data, it is becoming quite clear that BQ.1.1 will drive a variant wave in Europe and North America before the end of November Its relative share has kept more than doubling every week It has taken just 19 days to grow 8-fold from 5 sequences to 200 sequences.”

 

Some bad news regarding BQ.1.1 is that it escapes all available monoclonal antibody cocktails, even those that are still working against BA.5 Now looks like a pretty good time to get a booster dose if one is eligible. I got mine a week ago.

 

A week ago, @TWenseleers estimated a growth advantage of ~14% per day for BQ.1 over BA.5 This may be a slight overestimate. But note this was for BQ.1 not BQ.1.1 which has a few extra % pts Evidence quite strong that BQ.1.1 will have >10%/day advantage.

 

For comparison:
Alpha had ~7%/day growth advantage
Delta had ~11%/day over Alpha
BA.1 Omicron had ~20-25%/day over Delta
BA.2 had ~11%/day over BA.1
BA.4/5 had ~11%/day over BA.2
Looks like BQ.1.1 is less drastic than Omicron vs Delta but comparable to Delta, BA.2 & BA.4/5 waves

 

The growth advantage for BQ.1.1 is roughly similar to Delta, BA.2 and BA.5 at this point in time:

 

While BQ.1.1 is significantly faster than BA.2.75.2, it could still happen that XBB, BS.1.1 or another BA.2.75* offshoot will be able to keep up with BQ.1.1, but this would not make wave dynamics better, only worse.

 

Raj Rajnarayanan has posted that the Covid bellwether state of New York is seeing growth in BQ lineages.

 

 

Lastly, we have this fantastic diagram by Marc Johnson showing the convergent evolution that has led to the lineages we have been discussing, including BQ.1.1. Click on the image to expand.

 

 

 

 

DJ [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-next-covid-19-surges-will-be-lead-not-by-a-one-or-a-couple-of-new-variants-but-by-a-multitude-of-sub-lineages-with-convergent-rbd-escape-mutat[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-next-covid-19-surges-will-be-lead-not-by-a-one-or-a-couple-of-new-variants-but-by-a-multitude-of-sub-lineages-with-convergent-rbd-escape-mutat ions

We are (also) on the eve of a major worsening of the global-ongoing-pandemic. STOP THE SPREAD would help...Good information would help...

But the US president, top of WHO came up recently with "the pandemic is (as good as) over....There are lots of tools (Non Pharma Interventions);

-work/study from home

-mask up

-social distance

-test when ill

-wastewater/sewage samples can give good info-try to be on top of it...

Again-this pandemic looks like it will get much worse...protect yourself now governments do not protect you (but they protect profits...) 

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2022 at 10:46pm

part 2,

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time self reporting of symptoms in the UK may give better info.

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/03/covid-hospital-total-shows-sharpest-weekend-increase-since-march[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/03/covid-hospital-total-shows-sharpest-weekend-increase-since-march ;

Hospitals are seeing an increase in the number of patients in care who have tested positive for the coronavirus. They are currently treating 842 people who are infected with the virus, a 40 percent increase in a week, said patient coordination service LCPS. That is the highest number since 5 August, almost two months ago.

Since Friday, the number of people admitted into care with the infection increased by 146. That is the largest increase over a weekend since 14 March. The LCPS stopped updating hospital figures over the weekends and holidays in mid-April.


Last Monday, there were 601 patients who tested positive, and 466 the Monday before that. That means that the occupancy has increased by just over 80 percent in two weeks. If this rate of increase continues, hospitals will be treating more than a thousand people with the coronavirus in just a few days’ time.

The LCPS figures do not distinguish between people who were admitted because of symptoms caused by Covid-19, and people who were being treated for other health ailments and also happened to be infected. The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) does make that distinction, and also observed more admissions due to Covid-19. The institute said it appears the autumn coronavirus wave has started.


Since Sunday afternoon, 149 people with a coronavirus infection were admitted to a hospital. That is the largest influx since July 26. On the other hand, people also exit hospitalized care, due to death or because they have recovered sufficiently, which resulted in a net increase.

It is especially busy in the regular care wards, where there are 798 positively-tested people. That is 143 more than Friday and 230 more than last Monday. Some 44 patients with coronavirus are now in intensive care units, three more than Friday

DJ, In NL on tuesday and friday we get new statistics on CoViD...I hope they soon will provide more -and daily- info. There may be regional differences both in variants and-with that-what (age) groups are most at risk. 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table due to not reporting most cases in the weekend in statistics only Africa has a growth of cases +4%, Europe -1%....NOT REPORTING CASES IN TIME IS KILLING PEOPLE !!!!!

US cases would be -39%, Canada -41%, Mexico -25%...coherent regional picture...it looks like CoViD is still limited in North America...

In Europe Germany (now) +15%, France +31%, Italy +59% still delay in reporting is giving wrong statistics...

When there is a risk of flooding you need most recent numbers...not numbers that go back hours or even a day...Again-this winterwave most likely will be the worst-by far-so far in this pandemic...There are now 66 countries reporting an increase of cases (from all around the globe...)

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-next-covid-19-surges-will-be-lead-not-by-a-one-or-a-couple-of-new-variants-but-by-a-multitude-of-sub-lineages-with-convergent-rbd-escape-mutat[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-next-covid-19-surges-will-be-lead-not-by-a-one-or-a-couple-of-new-variants-but-by-a-multitude-of-sub-lineages-with-convergent-rbd-escape-mutat TMN has lots of links warning for re/co-infections, vaccines/anti-virals no longer able to help much...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/959895-avian-flu-an-unprecedented-number-of-cases-this-summer-in-europe-efsa-october-3-2022[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/959895-avian-flu-an-unprecedented-number-of-cases-this-summer-in-europe-efsa-october-3-2022 ;

An unprecedented number of detections of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus were reported in wild and domestic birds from June to September in Europe, according to the latest report compiled by EFSA, the European Center for Prevention and for disease control and the EU reference laboratory. In previous years, none or only a few cases had been detected during the summer period. The entire 2021-2022 HPAI season therefore generated the largest outbreak observed to date in Europe.

Between 11 June and 9 September 2022, 788 HPAI virus detections were reported in 16 EU/EEA countries and the UK, including 56 in poultry and 22 and 710 in captive birds respectively and wild. The unusual persistence of the virus in wild birds continued throughout the summer and was observed in 15 European countries. The virus has reached seabird breeding colonies on the northern Atlantic coast, causing mass mortality, particularly in Germany, France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.

Heavily infected wild birds also posed a permanent risk of infection to domestic birds. From June to September, the number of outbreaks in domestic birds decreased compared to previous months but was more than five times higher compared to the same period the previous year.

“With cases detected in poultry and wild birds through September, the current outbreak is clearly still ongoing. As the autumn migration begins and the number of wild birds wintering in Europe increases, they are likely to be at higher risk of becoming infected with HPAI than in previous years, due to the persistence of the virus in Europe,” said Guilhem de Seze, head of the department in charge of risk assessment at EFSA.

-

Low risk to humans


The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), which also contributed to the report, concludes that the risk of infection for the general human population in the EU/EEA is low, and that it is low to medium. for occupationally exposed persons. There is, however, a great deal of uncertainty in these conclusions due to the wide diversity of avian influenza viruses circulating in bird populations. The risk of transmission to humans via exposure to contaminated poultry products is considered negligible.

ECDC has also published a technical report entitled " Testing and detection of zoonotic infections of avian influenza in humans in the EU/EEA ", to which EFSA, the EU reference laboratory and the European Agency for Safety and Health at Work also contributed.

and;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/959892-ecdc-guidance-for-testing-identification-of-zoonotic-influenza-infections-in-humans-in-the-eu-eaa[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/959892-ecdc-guidance-for-testing-identification-of-zoonotic-influenza-infections-in-humans-in-the-eu-eaa ;

Oct 1st begins the 2022-2023 flu season, and as the chart above illustrates, the last 12 months have produced Europe's worst avian flu outbreak on record. Unlike in previous outbreak years, summer offered little respite and we've seen increasing evidence of mammalian adaptation of these viruses (see herehere, and here), making EU officials quite concerned over what the next 12 months will bring.


While the immediate concern is HPAI H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4b, which has ravaged wild birds and poultry both in Europe and North America, we are also watching zoonotic H5N6, H9N2, H10N3, and H3N8 avian viruses (along with a similar number of swine variant viruses).

Late last week the ECDC released their quarterly Avian influenza overview June – September 2022as a highly detailed 58 page PDFThe Executive Summary from the ECDC follows:


The 2021–2022 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) epidemic season is the largest HPAI epidemic so far observed in Europe, with a total of 2,467 outbreaks in poultry, 47.7 million birds culled in the affected establishments, 187 outbreaks in captive birds, and 3,573 HPAI virus detections in wild birds with an unprecedent geographical extent reaching from Svalbard islands to South Portugal and Ukraine, affecting 37 European countries.

Between 11 June and 9 September 2022, 788 HPAI virus detections were reported in 16 European countries in poultry (56), captive (22) and wild birds (710). Several colony-breeding seabird species exhibited widespread and massive mortality from HPAI A(H5N1) virus along the northwest coast of Europe.

This resulted in an unprecedentedly high level of HPAI virus detections in wild birds between June and August 2022 and represents an ongoing risk of infection for domestic birds. HPAI outbreaks were still observed in poultry from June to September with five-fold more infected premises than observed during the same period in 2021 and mostly distributed along the Atlantic coast.

Response options to this new epidemiological situation include the definition and rapid implementation of suitable and sustainable HPAI mitigation strategies such as appropriate biosecurity measures and surveillance strategies for early detection in the different poultry production systems.

The viruses currently circulating in Europe belong to clade 2.3.4.4b with seven genotypes, three of which identified for the first time during this time period, being detected during summer. HPAI A(H5) viruses were also detected in wild mammal species in Europe and North America and showed genetic markers of adaptation to replication in mammals.

Since the last report, two A(H5N6), two A(H9N2) and one A(H10N3) human infections were reported in China. The risk of infection is assessed as low for the general population in the EU/EEA, and low to medium for occupationally exposed people.


While primarily a threat to wild and domesticated birds, these viruses are continually evolving, and in the past few years we've seen disturbing evidence of increased spillover from birds to mammals, with many of these infections resulting in severe neurological manifestations and death

-

While we've seen guidance documents before on zoonotic flu from the ECDC (and the CDC), the level of concern in this document is clearly elevated going into this new flu season.


Granted, it is far from certain that an H5 virus can spark a human pandemic (see Are Influenza Pandemic Viruses Members Of An Exclusive Club?). However, the same could have been said about a coronavirus only a few years ago. And it is not as if H5Nx is the only novel threat before us.


Admittedly, we've stood on the viral precipice before with Asian H5N1 (primarily in Indonesia and Egypt), and H7N9 (in China), and each time the threat has receded. Maybe we get lucky again.

But I can't recall any time in the past 17 years of writing this blog where we've had so many plausible zoonotic threats circulating simultaneously - and as widely distributed - around the world.

DJ...Flutrackers also following Ebola in Africa (spread to Sudan from Uganda ???) 

CoViD-infection-even mild/without symptoms-may limit immunity against other diseases. Risk of a sort of Avian/Bird-flu spread in humans (maybe via another host) did increase...

"Flu-rona", "Twindemic" [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twindemic#%22Flurona%22[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twindemic#%22Flurona%22 ;

Twindemic is a term used during the COVID-19 pandemic, referring to the possibility of a severe flu season happening alongside an increase in cases of COVID-19 during the fall and winter of 2020 and 2021.[1][2][3][4][5] A consequence of a twindemic may be a mixture of two different infections in the same person at the same time.[6] The term twindemic is a portmanteau of "twin" and "pandemic".[3]

-

In April 2022, Apoorva Mandavilli of The New York Times speculated that a twindemic has not occurred because "exposure to one respiratory virus may put the body's immune defenses on high alert, barring other intruders from gaining entry into the airways. This biological phenomenon, called viral interference, may cap the amount of respiratory virus circulating in a region at any given time."[8] In the United States, flu cases, hospitalizations and deaths were up from the previous flu season, but were still lower than the pre-pandemic average.[8]

In January 2022, Israel reported, for the first time, a mixture of COVID-19 and influenza infections, colloquially known as "flurona".[9][10][11][12] In Brazil, four cases of the double infection have been identified, including a 16-year-old male from Rio de Janeiro. In Fortaleza of Ceará state, two children, including a one-year-old child tested positive without complications, and also a 52-year-old man who did not need hospitalization.[13] In São Paulo, the Secretariat of Health announced that its state had 110 cases in 2021.[14]

Flurona infections have also been reported in the United States, the Philippines and Hungary.[11]

DJ...we are already in a "twindemic" with both CoViD and Monkeypox...H3N2 may became a major "normal" flu (with some swine H3N2v also in humans....). 

Again -the perspective, outlook is BAD !!!!

Stop the spread !!! 

...politics going for more war, fiat currencies bringing hyperinflation...

Music; R.E.M. [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY ;

REMASTERED IN HD!! Official Music Video for It's The End Of The World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine) performed by R.E.M. 

DJ...I was also thinking of [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-diB65scQU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-diB65scQU Don't worry, Be happy...Bobby Mc. Ferrin..."Into each live some rain must fall"....time for more coffee !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, since the situation is that serious-part 3, 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-next-covid-19-surges-will-be-lead-not-by-a-one-or-a-couple-of-new-variants-but-by-a-multitude-of-sub-lineages-with-convergent-rbd-escape-mutat[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-next-covid-19-surges-will-be-lead-not-by-a-one-or-a-couple-of-new-variants-but-by-a-multitude-of-sub-lineages-with-convergent-rbd-escape-mutat giving a good description of what CoViD-9sub)variants will bring us...in part 2 I did mention "bird flu" variants very likely to jump species...

On top of that we have never been this close to nuclear-all out-war...

Since I have "limited room for decission" I will limit my (allready very limited...) social contacts further...I expect to be invited for a CoViD/Flu vaccination this month...hope the risks are smaller then the benefits...My main "tool" is trying to stay informed...

And-yes-I go for "hopium"...hope me-my "loved ones" will be able to have a "happy future" not be dead within a few years...There are major risks-it is our duty to limit those risks....

So-what can YOU do ? Contact politicians there is NO excuse ever for nuclear all out war....It is MAD !

Tell politicians they failed to do their job in protecting us from major healthrisks...they have to do more !

Why flying -kerosine- still is tax free [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Convention_on_International_Civil_Aviation[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Convention_on_International_Civil_Aviation and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerosene_tax[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerosene_tax 

Again, if you want to limit climate change, pandemics, limit air travel....

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/sars-cov-2-is-different-from-all-other-betacoronaviruses-in-that-it-only-partially-activates-the-ire1-alpha-xbp1-endoplasmic-reticulum-stress-pathway[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/sars-cov-2-is-different-from-all-other-betacoronaviruses-in-that-it-only-partially-activates-the-ire1-alpha-xbp1-endoplasmic-reticulum-stress-pathway 

and [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/university-of-virginia-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-infections-triggers-reduction-in-circulating-monocytes-that-leads-to-persistent-post-covid-pulmonar[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/university-of-virginia-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-infections-triggers-reduction-in-circulating-monocytes-that-leads-to-persistent-post-covid-pulmonar both further underline the very major risks of CoViD infections....

We have been-de facto-in this pandemic maybe up to three years...the picture is only getting worse...So we need another strategy (if we had a strategy to begin with...).

Again the main problem is political...like in climate collapse politics simply fail to do their job...protect you and me !








The last 5 times the spread between New Orders and Inventories in the ISM Manufacturing Index was this negative, the US was already in a recession. The 2001 and 1990-91 recessions never had readings this low. 

DJ, "politics" claim they "protected the economy" ...the economy is now moving into depression...very likely WORSE then after 1929...

Enough ! End of part 3...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Lets's go for a part 4....

-Economic backgrounds;

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/10/the-expected-financial-crash-is-finally-here.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/10/the-expected-financial-crash-is-finally-here.html ,

[url]https://southfront.org/british-economy-is-collapsing-its-the-energy-stupid/[/url] or https://southfront.org/british-economy-is-collapsing-its-the-energy-stupid/ should not be ignored...

One aspect making the economic outlook very likely WORSE then 1929...[url]https://tass.com/politics/1516893[/url] or https://tass.com/politics/1516893 is the economic warfare part..."de-dollar-ization"...Euro/pound now even under 1US$...is not a sign of US strength...only a sign of European collapse going even faster...

Without an economy forget about healthcare....I-in this part of the forum-leave it up to you to decide on the wisdom of no longer buying energy from your main supplier and NOT expecting it will hurt your economy...To me it is like a shop-owner without a bank...maybe on a small scale it may work...

Presented without comment! WSJ: U.N. Calls On Fed, Other Central Banks to Halt Interest-Rate Increases: A U.N. agency warns that further policy tightening risks a global economic downturn

link;[url]https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-n-calls-on-fed-other-central-banks-to-halt-interest-rate-increases-11664809202[/url] or https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-n-calls-on-fed-other-central-banks-to-halt-interest-rate-increases-11664809202 

Another aspect of wars is refugees...here in NL very likely linked to Afghan/Pakistan refugees polio(vaccine related) virus parts were detected...

-So far polio seems to remain limited. CoViD likely will go exponential...a horror show, this winter...

MPX  

Genomic accordions may hold the key to Monkeypox Clade IIb's increased transmissibility (H/T )

link [url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.09.30.510261v2[/url] or https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.09.30.510261v2 

As I noted in part 2 (Bird)Flu risks are also increasing...[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/959892-ecdc-guidance-for-testing-identification-of-zoonotic-influenza-infections-in-humans-in-the-eu-eaa[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/959892-ecdc-guidance-for-testing-identification-of-zoonotic-influenza-infections-in-humans-in-the-eu-eaa 

and what about Ebola...[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/959915-media-south-sudan-sends-samples-of-suspected-ebola-cases-to-south-africa-for-testing-october-3-2022[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/959915-media-south-sudan-sends-samples-of-suspected-ebola-cases-to-south-africa-for-testing-october-3-2022 5 possible Ebola cases (detected september 30-Central Equatoria-province) in South Sudan...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Equatoria[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Equatoria bordering Uganda...

-Let me go back in time; [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Cyprian#Epidemiology[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Cyprian#Epidemiology ;

The severe devastation to the European population from the two plagues may indicate that the people had no previous exposure or immunity to the plague's cause. The historian William Hardy McNeill asserts that both the earlier Antonine Plague (166–180) and the Plague of Cyprian (251–270) were the first transfers from animal hosts to humanity of two different diseases, one of smallpox and one of measles, but not necessarily in that order. Dionysios Stathakopoulos asserts that both outbreaks were of smallpox.[15]

According to the historian Kyle Harper, the symptoms attributed by ancient sources to the Plague of Cyprian better match a viral disease causing a hemorrhagic fever, such as ebola, rather than smallpox. (Conversely, Harper believes that the Antonine Plague was caused by smallpox.)[1][2][14]

Legacy[edit]

According to Harper, the plague nearly saw the end of the Roman Empire, and in the period between AD 248 and 268, "the history of Rome is a confusing tangle of violent failures. The structural integrity of the imperial machine burst apart. The frontier system crumbled. The collapse of legitimacy invited one usurper after another to try for the throne. The empire fragmented and only the dramatic success of later emperors in putting the pieces back together prevented this moment from being the final act of Roman imperial history."[2]

Both the threat of imminent death from the plague and the unwavering conviction among many of the Christian clergy in the face of it won many converts to that religion.[16]

-

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consequences_of_the_Black_Death[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consequences_of_the_Black_Death ;

The Black Death peaked in Europe between 1348 and 1350 with an estimated one-third of the continent's population ultimately succumbing to the disease. Often simply referred to as "The Plague", the Black Death had both immediate and long-term effects on human population across the world as one of the most devastating pandemics in human history. These included a series of biological, social, economic, political and religious upheavals which had profound effects on the course of world history, especially the history of Europe. Symptoms of the bubonic plague included painful and enlarged or swollen lymph nodes, headaches, chills, fatigue, vomiting, and fevers, and within 3–5 days, 80% of the victims would be dead.[1] Historians estimate that it reduced the total world population from 475 million to between 350 and 375 million. In most parts of Europe, it took nearly 80 years for population sizes to recover, and in some areas more than 150 years.[citation needed]

From the perspective of many of the survivors, the effect of the plague may have been ultimately favorable, as the massive reduction of the workforce meant their labor was suddenly in higher demand. R. H. Hilton has argued that those English peasants who survived found their situation to be much improved. For many Europeans, the 15th century was a golden age of prosperity and new opportunities. The land was plentiful, wages high, and serfdom had all but disappeared. A century later, as population growth resumed, the lower classes once again faced deprivation and famine.[2][3][4]

DJ...of course you need survivors to claim "progress"...

Do we see major pandemics in a sort of cycle-every 800-1,000 years ? [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics#Chronology[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics#Chronology mentions [url]https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7123324/[/url] or https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7123324/ ;

Abstract

Dr. Norrie provides a summary of the fifteen currently accepted causes for the end of the Bronze Age in the Near East and then goes on to discuss the sixteenth reason—infectious disease epidemics. These are the real reason that the end of the Bronze Age in the Near East was called either the “catastrophe” or the “collapse” due to its short time frame of 50 years, the mass migration of the general population and the “Sea Peoples” plus the abandonment of cities such as Hattusa, the capital of the Hittite Empire c.1200 bce. The diseases most likely to cause this collapse are smallpox, bubonic plague and tularemia.

DJ...of course a major pandemic in 2022 is different from the-often less global-pandemics in human history. 

Some aspects;

-CoViD and MPX are allready global..."polio in sewage" detected in Asia, Europe, North America...Ebola keeps returning in Africa...lots of other diseases very likely "have potential"..

-The present pandemic is "beyond twindemic", it is not only CoViD and MPX...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_HIV/AIDS[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_HIV/AIDS is not over...TB(C) may become very hard to limit...

-In 2018-2020 we had a global African Swine Fever pandemic in pigs...in 2019 CoViD started spreading in humans...in 2022 Avian Flu did not stop spreading during summer-spread to more regions then ever before...infecting also a.o. foxes [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/ireland/959899-ireland-1-new-outbreak-of-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-h5n1-in-a-red-fox-in-rathankar-woah-september-30-2022[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/ireland/959899-ireland-1-new-outbreak-of-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-h5n1-in-a-red-fox-in-rathankar-woah-september-30-2022 

-CoViD detected in 100 species...bats (a.o.) may have lots of other corona-virusses...

Of course diseases have been around all the time...however air-travel is spreading disease...we now have close to 8 billion people-most living in mega-cities...

DJ-The least we could do is face the potential risks and try to limit them;

-A major reduction in travel=a major reduction in spreading diseases

-Increase of testing/sequencing may bring early detection-limiting spread

-Better information/education on the risks may increase public support for limiting these major risks

Non of this is happening now...and these steps are allready late...

End of part 4

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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October 5...part 1,


DJ-Let me begin with "good news"; the expected Russian offensive in Ukraine did not start yet...maybe some people somewhere are trying to prevent further escalations...Maybe-in wars-some are facing the very major risks of further escalation...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvBk4atAaq0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvBk4atAaq0 "All we are saying is give peace a chance".....

More on wars in non pandemic latest news (later on) ...

-The pandemic picture is getting darker by the hour.....

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/xbb/xbb-and-three-other-sars-cov-2-strains-found-to-be-more-antibody-evasive-than-even-bq-1-1-and-ba-2-75-2/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/xbb/xbb-and-three-other-sars-cov-2-strains-found-to-be-more-antibody-evasive-than-even-bq-1-1-and-ba-2-75-2/ ;

The speed with which SARS-CoV-2 is now evolving is quite breathtaking – ever-fitter variants are now being uncovered on an almost daily basis.

Just over one week since we revealed that BA.2.75.2 and BQ.1.1 were approaching SARS-1 levels of escape, those two variants have already been superseded in antibody evasion by no less than FOUR new strains with even more efficient escape mechanisms. Worse still, these four new strains could adopt other mutations to make themselves even fitter yet.

Yunlong Cao, one of the authors of the preprint “Imprinted SARS-CoV-2 humoral immunity induces convergent Omicron RBD evolution“, has continued to test new strains of SARS-CoV-2, and has found four more VOIDs* waiting in the wings.

 

Yunlong Cao: “Updating results regarding convergent variants BU.1, BR.2, BM.1.1.1, CA.1, and XBB. XBB is currently the most antibody-evasive strain tested, and BR.2, BM.1.1.1, CA.1 are more immune evasive than BA.2.75.2 and BQ.1.1.”

DJ more at the link... *VOIDs = Variants of Impending Doom™ See also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Classification_of_variants[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Classification_of_variants ...WHO "going political" sticking to naming all new variants "Omicron" and "VOC" ...

A related category is "variant of high consequence", used by the CDC if there is clear evidence that the effectiveness of prevention or intervention measures for a particular variant is substantially reduced.[11]

DJ...By not naming VoHC when there are now lots of "Variants of High Consequence" again the WHO, (E)CDC etc fail again...

In short; earlier/present infection may NOT prevent catching the new variants of CoViD...vaccines/treatment "may be of limited use"...again I am NOT an expert but that is what I make of it....

Worse....

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/treatment/molnupiravir/multiple-hypermutated-sars-cov-2-sequences-that-may-have-been-created-by-molnupiravir/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/treatment/molnupiravir/multiple-hypermutated-sars-cov-2-sequences-that-may-have-been-created-by-molnupiravir/ ;

Molnupiravir, a drug used to treat SARS-CoV-2 infections, has received a lot of press attention since its launch, and not all of it has been positive.

Nearly one year ago, in a two part review of molnupiravir, William Haseltine at Forbes.com said “The FDA needs to tread very carefully with molnupiravir, the antiviral currently before them for approval. My misgivings are founded on two key concerns. The first is the drug’s potential mutagenicity, and the possibility that its use could lead to birth defects or cancerous tumors. The second is a danger that is far greater and potentially far deadlier: the drug’s potential to supercharge SARS-CoV-2 mutations and unleash a more virulent variant upon the world.”

Today, Ryan Hisner has posted a long thread on Twitter about molnupiravir that we feel should be preserved publicly in case it is removed from Twitter.  The thread looks at the approval process for the drug, then moves on to the potential for molnupiravir to cause hypermutated SARS-CoV-2 sequences, which is the part that we will focus on here.

It seems that, if this thread is correct, some of William Haseltine’s worst fears about this drug might be being realised.

-

“Molnupiravir is more than just a crap drug. It works by causing random mutations throughout a virus’s genome. Potentially, this could accelerate the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants"

DJ...anti-virals resulting in speeding up mutations making CoViD even more hard/impossible to contain...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics#By_death_toll[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics#By_death_toll the worst known pandemics may have killed more then 50% of the known population...Even the "Spanish Flu" highest estimate of killing 5% of the global population around a 100 years ago is "small" compared to what pandemics can do....

I think there is a need for knowing how big, major, the risks are....Not only from new variants of CoViD but also lots of other diseases (in Spain another a-symptomatic human H5N1 case was detected...)...

STOP THE SPREAD !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What is wrong with major reduction of air-travel (5% of pre-pandemic level) if we want to "stop" climate collapse, pandemics ????

End of part 1...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 2...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-omicron-variant-and-emerging-sub-lineages-are-decreasing-and-disarming-host-serologic-response-by-reducing-b-cell-antigenicity[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-omicron-variant-and-emerging-sub-lineages-are-decreasing-and-disarming-host-serologic-response-by-reducing-b-cell-antigenicity ...

DJ...new variants "hide" for the immune reaction...or even "undo" the immune response...(link in article)

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/university-of-wisconsin-study-validates-that-even-the-vaccinated-can-still-shed-and-transmit-infectious-sars-cov-2-virus-when-infected-with-covid-19[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/university-of-wisconsin-study-validates-that-even-the-vaccinated-can-still-shed-and-transmit-infectious-sars-cov-2-virus-when-infected-with-covid-19 DJ-A(nother) study indicating vaccines do not bring any change in spread of CoViD...only limit (long term) disease..not much more...So-again-QR-codes for vaccinated create a false sense of safety...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-university-of-oxford-study-shockingly-finds-that-lungs-of-post-covid-19-individuals-displayed-premature-aging-of-more-than-15-years[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-university-of-oxford-study-shockingly-finds-that-lungs-of-post-covid-19-individuals-displayed-premature-aging-of-more-than-15-years on the amount of damage CoViD can bring...

DJ-AGAIN !!!!!

There are lots of sensible interventions we should do NOW !!!!

-Stop spreading diseases !!!!! Virusses (etc) are still traveling for free around the globe...

-Masks !!!!

-Study/work from home 

-Information/education...know how bad the risks are....

AGAIN !!!! The worst known pandemics may have killed over 50% of the population...In 2022 massive illness and death will cause nuclear, chemical disasters....CoViD most likely does increase risks for all kinds of other diseases...MPX, Ebola, H5N1, Polio etc....

The "present strategy" is like "having a party in a house on fire"....totall madness !!! Denial is NOT a strategy !!!

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table NL cases +55% in this list...main reason is yesterdays update...Lots of countries/states simply stopped reporting CoViD cases...NL does report twice a week (maybe later on back to daily updates ?) 

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time UK must be over 2,5 million cases by now...early september it was under 1,5 million cases...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/04/dutch-covid-hospital-total-coronavirus-infections-doubled-2-weeks[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/04/dutch-covid-hospital-total-coronavirus-infections-doubled-2-weeks ;

The basic reproduction (R) value rose significantly from 1.03 to 1.18. That means that 100 people contagious with the coronavirus on 13 September passed it on to 118 others. They then infected 139 individuals, who were expected to further infect 164 more.

The BA.5 coronavirus variant remained the most common found in germ surveillance. The RIVM noted the appearance of an increase in the BA4.6 and BA2.75 sub-variants, but said there was little changed from last week.

DJ...lots of cases are NOT reported, miss even testing..."living with CoViD" is the "new political disfunction normal" resulting in more spread, more mutations, more variants...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/04/45-million-animals-culled-bird-flu-cases-year-4th-case-groningen-3-weeks[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/10/04/45-million-animals-culled-bird-flu-cases-year-4th-case-groningen-3-weeks

Europe is in the midst of the worst bird flu epidemic in 20 years, the European health service ECDC reported. In the Netherlands alone, over 4.5 million chicks and other birds have been culled in the past year, NOS reports.

See also [url]https://thebulletin.org/2022/09/is-the-next-pandemic-brewing-on-the-netherlands-poultry-farms/[/url] or https://thebulletin.org/2022/09/is-the-next-pandemic-brewing-on-the-netherlands-poultry-farms/ DJ-First human "avian Flu" infection in NL this year ? Possibly even a "Flu-Rona" co-infection...resulting in a combined spread ????

-On [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twindemic#%22Flurona%22[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twindemic#%22Flurona%22 ;see [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_interference[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_interference ;

Viral interference, also known as superinfection resistance,[1] is the inhibition of viral reproduction caused by previous exposure of cells to another virus.[2] The exact mechanism for viral interference is unknown.[3] Factors that have been implicated are the generation of interferons by infected cells,[4] and the occupation or down-modulation of cellular receptors.[1]

Viral interference was observed as early as the 16th century. An example is the smallpox vaccine which used cowpox to prevent smallpox infection.[5]

DJ...My-non expert-perspective however is new variants of CoVid may not be stopped by a Flu-immune-response...So Flu-patients may catch CoViD on top of the flu...(and it may present itself as a bad flu...certainly when some CoViD variants also escape testing...)....

End of part 2...part 3=high risk twitter...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 3...twitter and this forum are not "mixing well";








The common ancestor from Illinois (from August) appears to be a BA.4 that has picked up K444N. The main difference between is that the Australia/Texas/MOwastewater added N460K. This virus is moving fast mutationally and spatially.


DJ "Double Individual Speculator" also more info on the economic collapse...like;








WTI Oil Rises by 8.8% Past Two Sessions for Largest Two-Day Gain Since April 13

Without an economy there is no healthcare...








At best, molnupiravir (MOV) is a useless drug we’re wasting $$ on. At worst, it could accelerate the emergence of novel variants with unpredictable characteristics. First I’ll explain why MOV is useless. Later, I’ll present evidence I’ve found that it could be dangerous. 1/

See earlier posts...do we invest billions of tax payer money in big pharma strategies making the pandemic even worse ????

DJ-I hate to ask the question-If we had no pharma interventions (vaccines, anti-virals) would we be in a better situation pandemic-wise then we are in now ? My "view" is more Non Pharma Interventions longer and in time could have worked...








Rise in hospitalizations after Oktoberfest: The number of people hospitalized in Munich with Covid increased by 61% to 478 compared to last Tuesday, Bavaria’s capital announced today. Compared to the last day before Oktoberfest hospitalizations rose 137%.

What are we (not) doing ?????






Naomi Wu 机械妖姬

@RealSexyCyborg
·
Replying to @zexpe @Cox_A_R and 3 others
I mean, you killed and disabled millions and convinced them it was unavoidable because actually doing something about it might slightly slow the process of wealth transfer from your poorest citizens to your richest. I stand in awe.

If "governments" fail to do even a basic job-protect their citizens...instead worsen pandemics, inequality and go for more wars it is time for "better governments"...

The "strategy" on CoViD is "much to close" to "genocide by pandemic(s)"....

Josette Schoenmakers

@JosetteSchoenma
·
From the top 10 growing variants that were researched, only BN.1 evaded immunity after 3 CoronaVac + BA.1 infection a bit less than after BA.5 inf.. XBB, CA.1 and BA.2.3.20 evaded BA.1 immunity a bit better, but BQ.1 

From NL...CoViD vaccination/boosters "have a slow start" in NL...no sense of urgency...

On the US; [url]https://www.nber.org/papers/w30512[/url] or https://www.nber.org/papers/w30512 ; Overall, the excess death rate for Republicans was 5.4 percentage points (pp), or 76%, higher than the excess death rate for Democrats. Post- vaccines, the excess death rate gap between Republicans and Democrats widened from 1.6 pp (22% of the Democrat excess death rate) to 10.4 pp (153% of the Democrat excess death rate). The gap in excess death rates between Republicans and Democrats is concentrated in counties with low vaccination rates and only materializes after vaccines became widely available.

DJ...poverty. lack of education, "religion" also increase risk of death/severe disease international...See also [url]https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/COVID19UPDATESUSA/COVID19_USA[/url] or https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/COVID19UPDATESUSA/COVID19_USA ....


We are now flying blind—The  announced it had ended its #COVID19 country travel health notices as **fewer countries reported enough data for accurate assessments**. Basically, they admit they have no idea how much COVID is worldwide—so forget it? 🤦🏻‍♂️

"bankruptcy has many faces"....

End of part 3


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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part 4...lots of-bad-news...

DJ-Let me start with the EU...In World War Two Italy managed to be in war with both the allies AND Germany...A major risk for Europe could be we end up-still-in conflict with Russia...but also "not very happy" with what the US is doing...

When you look at the history of Argentina, Lebanon...once very rich countries now in crisis for the last decades...Europe could end up in such a-bad-scenario if there is not "more wisdom",,,

-I was looking for more flu-info [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/960006-study-influenza-a-h6n6-viruses-isolated-from-chickens-replicate-in-mice-and-human-lungs-without-prior-adaptation[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/960006-study-influenza-a-h6n6-viruses-isolated-from-chickens-replicate-in-mice-and-human-lungs-without-prior-adaptation ;

When we talk about avian flu viruses with zoonotic (or even pandemic) potential, the various incarnations of H5N1 first come to mind, followed perhaps by China's H7N9 virus. Between them they have caused thousands of infections and hundreds of deaths during the 21st century, but reports of both have declined sharply in recent years.


H5N6, also from China, continues to worry researchers, with 80 cases reported on the Mainland since 2014 (see map below) and a high fatality rate (40%-50%).

LPAI H9N2 has caused roughly 100 known infections (and undoubtedly many more undiagnosed), primarily is Asia, but generally produces mild to moderate illness. To that we can add sporadic human infections by H10Nx and H7N4 viruses in China, H7N2 (infecting cats and humans in NYC), and this year, China reported the first two known infections by avian H3N8 (see IJID: A Review Of The Pandemic Potential Of Avian H3N8).


There are a lot of novel avian flu viruses with zoonotic potential (that, along with swine variant viruses), could spark the next global health crisis.

Including H6 viruses, which don't get a lot of attention, but are common in both wild birds globally and in domesticated poultry in China, and have demonstrated the ability to jump species (to humans, to pigs, and to dogs) as well. Some past blogs include:

But since H6 viruses only rarely produce clinical illness in poultry, and are not legally reportable to the OIE (now WOAH), we are only rarely aware of their presence, or of the potential threat they may pose.


Two years ago, in Nature: Evolution & Pathogenicity of H6 Avian Influenza Viruses, Southern China 2011-2017we looked at study on the evolution of H6 viruses in China, and their growing adaptation to mammalian physiology.


Today we have another study published in the Journal of Virus Eradication, which warns that H6N6 viruses continue to evolve, and are becoming better adapted to human physiology, and that their threat to human health may be increasing.

DJ..more info in the link...see also [url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2022/10/study-influenza-h6n6-viruses-isolated.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2022/10/study-influenza-h6n6-viruses-isolated.html 

-[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/10/articles/animals/dogs/domestic-animal-monkeypox-surveillance-uk/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/10/articles/animals/dogs/domestic-animal-monkeypox-surveillance-uk/

The big thing this study suggests is that serious infection with monkeypox virus in pets is unlikely. It doesn’t prove it can’t happen, since the numbers are relatively small, but it shows that transmission to pets and subsequent serious disease is probably uncommon, if it occurs at all.  That’s useful information.

It’s still just one step on our path to understanding more about the potential for human-to-animal (and human-to-animal-back-to-human) transmission, as well the range of species that are susceptible to monkeypox.

DJ, the study did not look for asymptomatic spread...may have missed lots of info-but at least it is a start...

-[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-chinese-researchers-warn-that-new-sars-cov-2-recombinant-variant-xbb-is-the-most-immune-evasive-strain-that-is-comparable-to-the-sars-cov-1-s[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-chinese-researchers-warn-that-new-sars-cov-2-recombinant-variant-xbb-is-the-most-immune-evasive-strain-that-is-comparable-to-the-sars-cov-1-s train..."Omicron" is seeing a lot of mutations...DJ-I think labs may NOT be able to do all the sequencing that is needed...

Exponential growth will result now in lots of CoViD (sub)variants able to evade immunity and coinfect...

Mixed with the "flu-potential" it is becoming more and more a nightmare scenario...

-[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-u-s-nih-study-warns-of-potetial-human-outbreak-of-a-new-primate-hemorrhagic-fever-causing-arterivirus-from-africa-that-is-far-worse-than-hiv[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-u-s-nih-study-warns-of-potetial-human-outbreak-of-a-new-primate-hemorrhagic-fever-causing-arterivirus-from-africa-that-is-far-worse-than-hiv ;link [url]https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(22)01194-1[/url] or https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(22)01194-1 ;

Highlights

  • SHFV uses an intracellular receptor, CD163, for cellular entry
  • CD163 divergence in primates of some species poses a barrier to SHFV entry
  • All cellular proteins required for SHFV replication are functional in human cells
  • SHFV replication in human cells suggests potential for zoonotic transmission

Summary

Simian arteriviruses are endemic in some African primates and can cause fatal hemorrhagic fevers when they cross into primate hosts of new species. We find that CD163 acts as an intracellular receptor for simian hemorrhagic fever virus (SHFV; a simian arterivirus), a rare mode of virus entry that is shared with other hemorrhagic fever-causing viruses (e.g., Ebola and Lassa viruses). Further, SHFV enters and replicates in human monocytes, indicating full functionality of all of the human cellular proteins required for viral replication. Thus, simian arteriviruses in nature may not require major adaptations to the human host. Given that at least three distinct simian arteriviruses have caused fatal infections in captive macaques after host-switching, and that humans are immunologically naive to this family of viruses, development of serology tests for human surveillance should be a priority.

DJ...see also latest news-new pandemic (Kiwimum had a good link...) [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deltaarterivirus_hemfev[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deltaarterivirus_hemfev ;

Deltaarterivirus hemfev

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(Redirected from Shfv)

Jump to navigationJump to search
Synonyms[1]
Virus classificatione
Deltaarterivirus hemfev
(unranked):Virus
Realm:Riboviria
Kingdom:Orthornavirae
Phylum:Pisuviricota
Class:Pisoniviricetes
Order:Nidovirales
Family:Arteriviridae
Genus:Deltaarterivirus
Subgenus:Hedartevirus
Species:
Deltaarterivirus hemfev

Simian hemorrhagic fever virus

Deltaarterivirus hemfev, formerly Simian hemorrhagic fever virus or simian haemorrhagic fever virus (SHFV), is a highly pathogenic virus in monkeys. It is a positive-stranded RNA virus classified in the family Arteriviridae. It is the only member of the subgenus Hedartevirus.[2]

Hosts[edit]

Patas are believed to be the natural host for the virus since about 50% of wild patas monkeys have antibodies for the virus, while antibodies are much less prevalent in other simian species such as vervets and baboons. In macaques, however, infection with this virus can result in acute severe disease with high mortality. Recently, red colobus monkeys and red-tailed guenons have been identified as natural hosts for SHFV.[3][4]

Symptoms[edit]

Asymptomatic infection of the virus can occur in patas monkeys, vervet monkeys, and baboons, although it is observed primarily in patas monkeys. Infection has a rapid onset with animals developing a high fever, facial edemacyanosisanorexiamelena, and may begin to hemorrhage at the cutaneoussubcutaneous, and retrobulbar levels. Thrombocytopenia will develop soon after. Death usually occurs within 10–15 days after symptoms appear.[5]

...I need a drink....end of part 4...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ, part 1...

Is the OPEC-production cut of 2% linked to the pandemics ? YES !!! It will worsen the pandemic ! Here in NL latest inflation number was 17,1% (year-to-year) so healthcare, consumers, did see their income drop in a major way...It will mean hospitals have less money to spent; decrease of healthcare capacity with an increase-due to the pandemics-of healthcare demand = more serious illness, more (excess) deaths...

There are (by now lots of) stories Ukraine going for a "dirty bomb false flag"...this will increase number of refugees...further escalation of wars is more wounded...In the Ukraine-war a lot of those wounded go to western European hospitals...Refugees are often "not in the best of health"...transport diseases (but still need the best available care !)...More wounded from wars is less healthcare capacity with pandemics getting worse...

Like in wars there are "statisticians" calculating (the best they can) what the effect is of "developments"...Policy can use the info to increase/decrease healthcare capacity..Here in NL we did see a spread of CoViD patients being restarted to get more capacity for new CoViD-hospital cases...We are still in "low numbers" for hospital/ICU but preparing for a worsening that is expected...

Statistics [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table were supposed to give us info on how the pandemic is developing... Europe-in these statistics-are the only region with an increase of cases...very limited +0,7%...

One of the remarks one can make is the regions being used; Asia has more the half the global population...Oceania just over 0,5%...but still-it can provide some indications..Another aspect most countries stopped daily updates...so the statistics are "eroded"...

Still 68 countries do report an increase of cases...Europe may-again-be a starter for a winterwave...In this worldometers-list UK cases -90%...[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time has UK-self reporting cases-now over 2,5 million...early september it was around 1,5 million...

So...the use of worldometers as even indicator for what the pandemic is doing is "limited" at best...

-From the big picture to the virus;

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/china-xinjiang-covid-epidemic-most-difficult-major-public-health-emergency-in-local-history/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/china-xinjiang-covid-epidemic-most-difficult-major-public-health-emergency-in-local-history/ ;

China’s daily newspaper, the Global Times, is giving prominent coverage today to the ongoing Covid outbreak in Xinjiang, headlining it as the “most difficult major public health emergency in local history”.

The current round of epidemic prevention and control work in Xinjiang has not achieved the goal of “dynamic zero-COVID” for two months not only due to the reasons of strong infectiousness, fast transmission and short incubation period of the Omicron BA.5.2 variant, but also because of some loopholes in the anti-epidemic work.

In a strongly worded article, the Global Times also quotes a local official saying “nucleic acid testing has become the biggest weakness” in Xinjiang.

-

This is, by far, the most critical article on the response to Covid-19 that we have seen in the Chinese press since the beginning of the pandemic. Its tone probably reflects Chinese frustration at the enormous amount of time and effort that has been expended on controlling the virus so far, with seemingly little to show in return.

The question for China, though, is what is the alternative to continuing to try and control the virus?

In response to nearly three years of the pandemic, western capitalist societies have become increasingly relaxed about the value of human life.  The “herd immunity” and “living with Covid” policies have utterly destroyed the initial sense of solidarity built up between ordinary people who were fighting a common enemy. Mitigations and testing have been largely abandoned, millions have died, tens of millions have been disabled, and the functioning of economies and the making of profits remain the top priorities for western leaders.

Living with Covid has been a catastrophe as far as containing the pandemic is concerned. The hands-off approach to Covid-19 has also left weakened populations at risk of new variants, and diseases such as polio, monkeypox, cholera and perhaps even ebola.  Some of these new threats will be far more pathogenic than anything we have had to deal with so far.

To let the virus simply rip in China, as we have seen in the US and Europe, will endanger the lives of tens of millions of people. Is that something that the Chinese leadership are willing to contemplate? We hope not.

The fight against Covid is an existential fight for mankind. There is no living with Covid. There is only dying with Covid.

 

Global TImes: Xinjiang region’s latest epidemic becomes most difficult major public health emergency in local history

DJ...China worldometers cases +1% (1497 this week, 1479 last week) ...Xinjang has an Uyghur-muslim population...I think the statement on "zero CoViD' on "living with CoViD=dying from CoViD" represents more or less my view...

STOP THE SPREAD !!! The alternative we now face is an out of control worst-ever healthcrisis worldwide...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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part 2, 

In non-pandemic-latest-news I may write more on the global background...from storms, wars, economy, politics...

Again; the "disease triangle"= disease-transport-host..."

You have to know what the risks are from a disease, how it spreads to what hosts to develop a strategy...If "profits" become a major factor one may see a disasterous strategy...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-early-data-shows-that-new-sars-cov-2-sub-lineages-bq-1-1-and-bm-1-1-attacks-the-endothelial-cells-of-the-gut-ferociously-and-causes-disease-s[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-early-data-shows-that-new-sars-cov-2-sub-lineages-bq-1-1-and-bm-1-1-attacks-the-endothelial-cells-of-the-gut-ferociously-and-causes-disease-s everity

DJ...the story (with links in article) describes 14 patients developing major "gut-problems" ..no lung problems...9 out of the 14 have died so far...(3 of them from heart faillure..very likely linked to the virus spreading further). Known medication not effective...It is very early-but if this may become "the trend" for "newer CoViD variants" we have a very serious problem...

-One of the major problems we have to deal with is "lack of imagination" on how bad things can get...

I see a lot of similarity between how "politics" deals with climate change, fiat-currencies and the present pandemics..."kicking cans down the road", "buying time" (by printing more money) is NOT solving any problem...

-Fiat currency may mean the "real value" of Dollar, pound, Euro, Yen could be <1% of what "we" love to think it is...Part of the "major global economic powers" is bluff...western-fiat-currencies are "empty"...(there is the war-link...)

-Climate collapse-like a lot of things-goes exponential...not linear...so sealevel-rise may not go 1,2,3,4,5 cm but 1,2,4,8,16 cm. over time...

-A flu-pandemic may be "self limiting"...in the Spanish Flu the flu itself offered immunity against reinfection...with CoViD forget about "herd immunity"...you can catch CoViD variants over and over again...

So-for a more realistic view on the present CoViD pandemic-causing all kinds of other diseases to get out of control looking at the Spanish Flu (killing maybe up to 5% of the global population about a 100 years ago) may be "to optimistic"...The 14th century plague "Black Death" maybe killing up to 50% of the population may be more accurate...

In a 2022 world only "good management" putting priority at preventing major nuclear, chemical disasters with "most of humanity ill and dying" may prevent "end of live" on this planet...

DJ-Of course..."I am not an expert"...point is even "experts", the best virologists, epidimologists...even medical historians may not have the experience to get an overall view...

We have never seen this kind of pandemic in our lifetime...so all we can do is put the best science we have together to try to get "the best possible view"...

-Is my "view" unrealistic overpessimistic ? I hope so ! I hope to be completely wrong ! Again-I do not claim to be an "expert" of any sort...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/ does NOT show exponential growth...we may now getting close to 625 million tested & reported cases...last winter did see an increase of 220 million cases per september 1 -2021 to over 440 million cases by march 1-2022...

September 1 this year had 609 million reported cases...so by march 1 2023 around 1,2 billion cases "should be expected"...?

Bulk of daily cases were before vaccines showed up...january 2021 did see days with over 3 million cases per day...however "we stopped most of the testing"...even with that july 2022-this year-did see days with 1,1 million tested + cases...

Also when you look at the "number of tested/reported CoViD deaths" ...no exponentials...However [url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps excess deaths (in Europe) -still not exponential-may picture 2022 as a year with high excess deaths...

DJ-The potential for "exponential growth" is also in the new variants now starting to spread (most in Europe - for now)...in an increase of all kinds of other diseases...For that matter limiting airtravel=limiting variant/disease spread still could be welcome & wise...

But again...I only can hope to see things completely wrong...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 3..twitter;

Double Individual Speculator

@x2IndSpeculator
·
Mind you, 15% excess mortality for 1Q 2022 is ABOVE the WHOLE YEAR of 2020 (14.7%). How is that even possible if #Omicron is mild, and the vast majority of people had by then already built up immunity vs. #SARS2 (through vaccination and/or infection)?

fits in with what I tried to describe in part 2...








Holy smokes! This is maybe the most important paper I’ve read in 2022… We know that this #COVID virus is good at hiding from the immune system. Now we have a solid idea of how it scrambles our immunity signals: it messes with the chemical markers the body uses to turn on genes.

and


Eric Topol

@EricTopol
·
We knew about how #SARSCoV2 blocks our defenses by its mutations (immune escape) and inhibiting interferon. Now a new mechanism, mimicking a protein,  described @Nature  https://nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05282-z @PennEpiInst @KorbLab https://nature.com/articles/d41586-022-02930-2 @ProfVolkerThiel

DJ, less immune protection (after CoViD infection) may/seems to provide more room for other diseases...like [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory (updates/testing = poor) 

Also, the method confirms what labs already observed about the progression of severity (& syncytia) of Omicron, with BA.5 being worse than previous ones. Amazing. It would be great to see where new candidates like XBB & BQ.1.1 fall in here.

DJ...there was a trend for claims like "it will get milder" ...CoViD develop into a cold-like issue...[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-early-data-shows-that-new-sars-cov-2-sub-lineages-bq-1-1-and-bm-1-1-attacks-the-endothelial-cells-of-the-gut-ferociously-and-causes-disease-s[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-early-data-shows-that-new-sars-cov-2-sub-lineages-bq-1-1-and-bm-1-1-attacks-the-endothelial-cells-of-the-gut-ferociously-and-causes-disease-s suggests CoViD is becoming more of a killer-virus...

Herbert Simon stopped traveling in order to get more work done. And bonus: Avoid getting infected.  

and

Study: Holding fewer meetings could save $25K per employee, per year. Excessive meetings are draining employees' brains and employers' bank accounts https://beckershospitalreview.com/hospital-management-administration/holding-fewer-meetings-could-save-25k-per-employee-per-year-study.html

DJ...work/study from home would limit (urban) traffic, save a lot of traveltime and reduce these pandemics...One could try to calculate the cummulitive effects...do vaccines limit CoViD better then work/study from home for 50% of the work/study population ? Could masks, work/study from home, vaccines slow down/limit the winterwave to avoid a major disaster...? 

Information-communication on risks however is major !

Update: Sixty-three confirmed and probable cases have been reported in the Ebola outbreak in Uganda, including 29 deaths

link [url]https://medicalxpress.com/news/2022-10-uganda-ebola-outbreak-death-toll.html[/url] or https://medicalxpress.com/news/2022-10-uganda-ebola-outbreak-death-toll.html ;

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus lamented that the outbreak, declared two weeks ago, was taking a deadly toll on health workers as well as patients.

There are six species of the Ebolavirus genus and the one circulating in Uganda is the Sudan ebolavirus—for which there is currently no vaccine.

"So far, 63 confirmed and probable cases have been reported, including 29 deaths," Tedros told a press conference in Geneva.

"Ten health workers have been infected and four have died. Four people have recovered and are receiving follow-up care."

The east African nation's Health Minister Jane Ruth Aceng Ocero said that a 58-year-old anaesthetist had died of Ebola early Wednesday, following the deaths of a Tanzanian doctor, a health assistant and a midwife.

DJ [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/959915-media-south-sudan-sends-samples-of-suspected-ebola-cases-to-south-africa-for-testing-october-3-2022?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/959915-media-south-sudan-sends-samples-of-suspected-ebola-cases-to-south-africa-for-testing-october-3-2022?view=stream on possible spread into South Sudan...So far Ebola has been limited to Africa...only a few sporadic cases -travel links-outside Africa. 

More CoViD...








And then an interesting BA.2.75* x BJ.1 (which is itself a BA.2 sublineage - BA.2.10.1.1) recombinant - XBB. Fairly standard looking simple breakpoint recombinant (in spike) but growing faster than any other recombinant currently...

and








With so many immune escape variants, I'd love to see experiments with something like a quadrivalent BQ.1.1, XBB, BN.1, BA.2.3.20 vaccine. Maybe it's better to mix a couple of candidate variants than wait until we know which single one wins. Should not be too hard with mRNA tech.

DJ...end of part 3...may go for a part 4 with more from twitter/flutrackers etc...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2022 at 11:17pm

internet-link with this website sometimes is problematic...gets disconnected (while other links still work...)..

Maybe something on sources; There are official websites from the WHO, (E)CDC, ...I see them as "political"...public healthcare is not #1, economy is...Like the IPCC in climate change they may provide a lot of info...but translation to policies is "problematic"...[url]https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea[/url] or https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea or [url]https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/situation-updates/variants-dashboard[/url] - https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/situation-updates/variants-dashboard 

I do not have that much patience....

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/denmark-a-soup-of-120-covid-variants-sequenced-in-one-month/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/denmark-a-soup-of-120-covid-variants-sequenced-in-one-month/  

You may have heard the expression “a soup of Covid variants” recently..

Well, Denmark has just provided graphic evidence of that variant soup. It has just published a list of no less than 120 variants found circulating in the country in the last four weeks in its latest infection report.

BA.5* lineages still represent about 93% of current sequences in Denmark, but the other seven percent is an unholy cocktail of every variant we have ever heard of, and even some that we have not. 

-

In other news in Denmark, Covid cases are up, Covid hospitalizations are up, and Covid deaths are also up. Full report in English below, with a link to the Danish version.

DJ, I learned from these kinds of sites much more then from "official ones"..[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-numerous-studies-are-showing-that-mild-symptomatic-sars-cov-2-infections-can-lead-to-a-variety-of-cardiac-issues,-some-with-fatal-outcomes[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-numerous-studies-are-showing-that-mild-symptomatic-sars-cov-2-infections-can-lead-to-a-variety-of-cardiac-issues,-some-with-fatal-outcomes with a study-link no doubt...

twitter;









Infuriating. The urge to cover up the pandemic is unstoppable.

and