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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Pandemic - Not If - but when

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Medclinician View Drop Down
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    Posted: February 25 2020 at 6:47pm
So I said predicting the 2009 Pandemic. Now the head of CDC says my words. It is the money people, not the doctors, who are in control. We cannot keep bringing infected people in and have it not spread everywhere.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 6:54pm
No matter what Med this is going to spread just when and how fast is what we all so not know. Yes money is the big factor look at the stock market!!! But it is coming like it or not!!

I am just glad it will not kill a lot of the young people a bunch of us old ones dying is no big deal.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 7:10pm
The Coronavirus has caused the U.S. stock market to drop at times 1800 in 2 days. Some will make millions from this. Will there be a vaccines? Not for 18 to 24 months. Will there be clinics to treat anyone? No. Those infected will be told to SIP - sit in place.
Homeland says they need 2.5 billion to contain it. Let's hope that will be enough. God help survive this.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 8:47pm
Originally posted by Medclinician Medclinician wrote:

The Coronavirus has caused the U.S. stock market to drop at times 1800 in 2 days. Some will make millions from this. Will there be a vaccines? Not for 18 to 24 months. Will there be clinics to treat anyone? No. Those infected will be told to SIP - sit in place.
Homeland says they need 2.5 billion to contain it. Let's hope that will be enough. God help survive this.

Medclinician



Well at least we're all in the same boat Med. We'll have problems here in NZ. It's already hitting our economy as our biggest exports are to China. Our health service is excellent but like every one around the world it doesn't operate day to day with a huge excess capacity just waiting to be filled by a pandemic. We're testing like mad but still haven't got a case so I can't help but wonder if our tests are faulty. Before the travel ban, we had 2000 people a day arriving from China. Surely we must have it?


You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 8:55pm
By Babycat's graphs the old people are going to take it in the ear. Just hope I can SIP before I get it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 10:21pm
Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

By Babycat's graphs the old people are going to take it in the ear. Just hope I can SIP before I get it.

You know I am in a hospital with the Flu my right arm and leg useless after a massive stroke? This entry typed with a single thumb.So hugs long overdue. I was just told we have,enough food and drugs for two years. 
Don't give up. I still have to get Pandemic Now to tell you and millions how to survive this. We both will.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 10:32pm
I agree Med! I never give up I just keep going like the energizer bunny. You take care of yourself   I have enough food for a year but only drugs enough for 3 months. Hugs to you and your family,
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 10:49pm
Kiwimum, at least your health service is actively looking for infected. The US? Nope. Willfully blind. I get the feeling I had when watching Hurricane Katrina build up offshore to a Cat 5, watching the forecast tracks, reading the warnings about New Orleans susceptibility, and thinking..surely the government must see what I'm seeing, surely they're helping prepare others, surely they're doing something. The National Weather Service warnings were as apocalyptic as I have EVER read, anywhere, anytime. Look them up sometime if you are interested. Surely, there was at least an organization who was seeing the big picture.

Nope. I stayed up all night and watched it wind up and send an Mike Tyson uppercut into New Orleans jaw. Knock out. I knew it hit, and hit bad. Surely, I thought, there's someone at the state or national level going to do something, soon. Nope.

We're sitting ducks, in a sense, and on our own for a while. That's my mindset.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 10:55pm
And by the way, Flumom, although those over 60 do have a higher increase in CFR, I think what's more likely to happen before a complete wave of infections washes over the US, various communities where it's broken out (I'm thinking places like SF, LA, or even a smaller town or two (like Italy),) then we'll see waves of SIP orders for those areas, and everyone else in the country will react by staying inside, social distancing, etc. This will give even more time. Hotspots and lockdowns. Hotspots and lockdowns. Rolling 14-day community quarantine/SIP orders, that's how I imagine it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 10:56pm
Originally posted by Medclinician Medclinician wrote:

Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

By Babycat's graphs the old people are going to take it in the ear. Just hope I can SIP before I get it.

You know I am in a hospital with the Flu my right arm and leg useless after a massive stroke? This entry typed with a single thumb.So hugs long overdue. I was just told we have,enough food and drugs for two years. 
Don't give up. I still have to get Pandemic Now to tell you and millions how to survive this. We both will.
Medclinician


Med, we are SO sorry to learn of your stroke, man!!  Thank you for hanging in there and contributing! 

Best wishes, friend.  I have a feeling that COVID-19 won't be that bad, although there will be mortalities, it won't be 1918 part two. 

That would happen if Kawaoka's lab at Univ of WI in Madison accidentally lets loose of his GOF experiments with H5N1 and H7N9.   Captain Trips stuff.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 5:59am
Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

That would happen if Kawaoka's lab at Univ of WI in Madison accidentally lets loose of his GOF experiments with H5N1 and H7N9.   Captain Trips stuff.  



That sentence just sounds like totally YIKES!
If it's to be - it's up to me!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 8:41am
Thank you for the well wishes. I'll still today on Fox seeing a death toll of 15 with 95 cases in Iran . This a mutating virus. Let's hope this strain doesn't breed like crazy in Iran. Other countries are banning travel. The U.S. was and is not ready medically to deal with this.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sheep Lady Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 11:29am
Originally posted by Medclinician Medclinician wrote:

So I said predicting the 2009 Pandemic. Now the head of CDC says my words. It is the money people, not the doctors, who are in control. We cannot keep bringing infected people in and have it not spread everywhere.
Medclinician




Med, I remember you saying "not if, but when" for years. Too bad the talking heads had to copycat the best...no originality. Makes me wonder who else's playbook they are following.

Heck of a time to have all this coming at you. Prayers you are on the mend.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 12:18pm
Originally posted by Newbie1A Newbie1A wrote:

Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

That would happen if Kawaoka's lab at Univ of WI in Madison accidentally lets loose of his GOF experiments with H5N1 and H7N9.   Captain Trips stuff.  



That sentence just sounds like totally YIKES!

I know too much stuff, thanks to my work with the FBI.  COVID-19 is tame compared to the stuff I study.  


Let's hope it all stays bottled up.  


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 12:38pm
Chuck - you will love Med lol. Med works on the X-File branch of Fed Gov't, lol.
https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 7:35pm
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

Chuck - you will love Med lol. Med works on the X-File branch of Fed Gov't, lol.
,  Not anymore. So I continued and here I am typing with one thumb. Continued snooping. I know at Madison they made germs that were really bad bioweapons... but this one was made by the Chinese and got out... now I just write and post. tc Albert
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 7:59pm
Well, DT did get the 2. 5 billion right but did not count all those in the U.S. that others let in. Solano County first case of unknown origin - and San Francisco has declared a city emergency. You know I first said "Don't panic prepare". So, it is good we are looking at 4-8 Billion maybe. It is still scary "Not if, but when"

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 11:32pm
On the other hand, keep your eyes on the "public health industrial complex."  I've seen this type of thing all too often....PH built up a cottage industry for H5N1, and uh, what happened with that? 

Pushing coronavirus panic: one WHO expert’s outrageous record

By Post Editorial Board

February 26, 2020 | 8:04pm

No one really knows how hard COVID-19 will hit the world: It’s impossible to trust any data out of China, and it’s too early to learn much from coronavirus cases in other nations. And even “experts” can be deceptive.

We’re thinking in particular of the World Health Organization’s Bruce Aylward, who told reporters Tuesday in Geneva: “Big conclusion for the world is — it’s simply not ready.”

More: The world “could get ready very fast, but the big shift has to be in the mindset of how we’re going to manage the disease.”

Risibly, he suggested imitating China — which, in fact, clearly bungled the early stages of its epidemic.

Reality check: Back in October 2014, Aylward warned that new global Ebola cases could reach 10,000 a week “by the first week in December.” In fact, they hit just 529 that week.

As Michael Fumento noted in these pages at the time, “the Ebola epidemic peaked a full month before” Aylward made his prediction — and WHO data showed it.

The sad truth is that global health bureaucrats use these outbreaks to push for greater funding, with utter disregard for the truth.

Go ahead and prepare in case COVID-19 does break out in America — but watch out for self-interested panic-mongers, too.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 11:58pm
I dont believe anyone, 

only trust my own Common sense,

Which is telling me there's no harm in getting a few 

Bags of this and tins of that....... 

What will be will be........


12 Monkeys...............
1995 ‧ Science fiction film/Thriller ‧ 2h 11m a must for AFT
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2020 at 8:40am
There are more cases of Covid-19  in Iran. From The Guaurdian are 139 cases where 1 9 have died. From other sources are as high as 254 cases. Japan has shut down schools.  Update this minute - now 26 dead - The highest number of deaths outside Mainland China. The Vice--President of Iran was infected and on video announcing the new information.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2020 at 10:25am
Sorry, Med. my dear old Dad had us all beat. One of his go-to phrases when I was a kid was “it’s not a case of if - it’s a case of when”. Before prepping was even a thing, I remember him predicting a “plague”.

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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2020 at 11:04am
Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:

Sorry, Med. my dear old Dad had us all beat. One of his go-to phrases when I was a kid was “it’s not a case of if - it’s a case of when”. Before prepping was even a thing, I remember him predicting a “plague”.


Likewise!  My late Dad was a naval intelligence officer in WW2, and he taught me about preparing for nuclear war when I was perhaps 10.  That is over 40 years ago. 

He was also a lifetime Boy Scout leader, and our motto is "be prepared!" 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2020 at 7:49pm
Perhaps "Not if but when" has been said but I said it before the 2009 Pandemic and posted here for 10 years No person,wrote Pandemic Now. And is now - despite for money reasons - not declared. Over 3200 points in 4 days crashed the Dow.
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Originally posted by Medclinician Medclinician wrote:

Perhaps "Not if but when" has been said but I said it before the 2009 Pandemic and posted here for 10 years No person,wrote Pandemic Now. And is now - despite for money reasons - not declared. Over 3200 points in 4 days crashed the Dow.
Medclinician 


Yep, my expert sources (top notch) are already confirming what we knew, i.e. it is a pandemic.  If it looks like a duck etc.

Stock markets will likely go down even further.  The global economy has been weakened by Chinese trade war, Brexit etc., so our international systems are already fragile. 

I'm not worried about disease as much as I'm worried about economic disruption.  Take care, Med!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2020 at 10:19pm
Exactly, Chuck. It’s not the virus - it’s the damage it can do to our way of life that we should be worried about.

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 28 2020 at 5:10am
Same page here.
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So Bii Gates thinks it. Is a Pandenic too 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Medclinician Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2020 at 8:18pm

Today it has become The Coronovirus Pandemic. The hospital I am at went to lockdown. 4 passengers got off from the liner in Oakland in Pacific Grove 3 miles away. Today it was called a Pandemic yet only a CFR of about 3%. A lot of panic over something far less dangerous than this year's flu.

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This year's flu has a CFR of about 0.1% so the Coronavirus is much more deadly..  

What it hasn't had the chance to do is spread to infect at least 10% of the population.   Even if it reaches just 1% of the population then the Wuhan-Bat Sars-Cov2 virus will be more deadly than the flu.

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(CNN)For the first time in 11 years, the World Health Organization has declared a pandemic as a top US health official calls for "all hands on deck" to fight coronavirus.

A pandemic is defined as the "worldwide spread" of a new disease.
The US has more than 1,000 cases of novel coronavirus. And growing clusters of the disease are forcing many Americans to change their daily lives.



https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/11/health/us-coronavirus-cases-wednesday/index.html

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There is a vaccine for flu, not a perfect one but far better than none at all which is what we have for covid19.  

Plus flu is seasonal, there is no evidence that covid19 is.  

Finally, when your kid gets flu you know, you put him to bed and he infects few people.  If he gets the wu, you don't know and the whole school, the postman, everyone at your local wallmart and the corner shop catch it at the same time.

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Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

I really hope people aren't listening to Kilt and Med, lol.  

Obviously there are others who feel the same way, e.g. the latest cruise ship that can't doc.  They too thought it was nothing, now there are 4 dead bodies on the ship with another 200 who are sick.   We need to be cautious on this forum when spreading news that there is nothing to worry about, when the fact is, this is a cat-5 pandemic.  God I hope people here are not part of the problem in this with spreading disinformation that the flu is worse, as people are not taking the stay-at-home orders seriously and they are booking cruises.   

If you think this is all a hoax and nothing to worry about, not sure why you're even here on the forum.   Maybe it's time for some folks to find another group instead of spreading disinformation here with the old "flu is worse" campaign, and this is a hoax, and more people die by drinking diet coke or whatever.   This is a pandemic awareness group, and we are in a cat-5 pandemic, so if you feel differently about it, maybe it's time to find another group for the time being.  

I'm not going to use this forum to have people lower their guards and put others in harms way.  


Well said, Boss!

This virus kills more sufferers than the seasonal flu, this virus hospitalises more than the seasonal flu, this virus is more contagious than the seasonal flu.  We do not have a full set of statistics yet, but it may yet 'outperform' the 1918 flu.

The flu has vaccines - but not the wu, we (as a species) have some flu immunity - but none for the wu, there are drugs to fight the flu - there are none for this wu.  This damn bug mutates faster than the flu as well.

Our hospitals are already overwhelmed and it has barely started cutting its swathe through the world.

This probably kills around 3% - unless/until you get the nastier L strain* and your health system fails - then the CFR goes up and up and up.  Worst projections say 10% - but that does not take places like India into account.

To compare this to the flu is akin to comparing one man with a rifle to an approaching army with ICBMs.  Both kill.





*Seasonal flu requires a vaccine change every couple of years due to its mutation rate.  For instance last year's flus are circulating again this year.  The Wu has been around since December and there are (to my knowledge) about 5 strains now.  The more people who get it, the more mutations can emerge.  Don't be afraid, be terrified!


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^Thanks, Techno, well said.  This ain't no flu.  

We have many more tools to fight seasonal flu (antivirals like Tamiflu and Relenza) and we understand the dynamics of flu very well, since we start looking for emergent strains early.  

This thing just jumped out of a box at us.  Since we lack immunity, all of us who are doing a good job of avoiding this virus with social distancing/STFH practice can expect another go-around in future waves.  Experts predict that SARS-CoV2 will join the mix of other circulating corona viruses which tend to have low lethality, so those of us who are at low risk at present will likely get a dose of this thing in coming months/years. 

That being said, I'm impressed with the progress being made on the medical front.  Even serious cases of COVID-19 resulting in ICU hospitalization can, and have been, turned around with supportive care and use of ventilators.   There are many prospective antiviral drugs being tested, and some of these are likely to help reduce the severity of infection.  A vaccine is a long way off, but I think we will eventually have one, and it will likely help in the global fight against other potential pandemic threats like MERS. 

We are all on a big cruse-ship called Planet Earth, all we can do is support one another and be vigilant.   Best wishes to all, Chuck

CRS, DrPH
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