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| Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Pandemic - Not If - but when |
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Medclinician 
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 Topic: Pandemic - Not If - but whenPosted: February 25 2020 at 6:47pm |
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So I said predicting the 2009 Pandemic. Now the head of CDC says my words. It is the money people, not the doctors, who are in control. We cannot keep bringing infected people in and have it not spread everywhere.
Medclinician |
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"not if but when" the original Medclinician
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FluMom
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Posted: February 25 2020 at 6:54pm |
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No matter what Med this is going to spread just when and how fast is what we all so not know. Yes money is the big factor look at the stock market!!! But it is coming like it or not!!
I am just glad it will not kill a lot of the young people a bunch of us old ones dying is no big deal. |
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Medclinician
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Posted: February 25 2020 at 7:10pm |
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The Coronavirus has caused the U.S. stock market to drop at times 1800 in 2 days. Some will make millions from this. Will there be a vaccines? Not for 18 to 24 months. Will there be clinics to treat anyone? No. Those infected will be told to SIP - sit in place.
Homeland says they need 2.5 billion to contain it. Let's hope that will be enough. God help survive this. Medclinician |
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"not if but when" the original Medclinician
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KiwiMum
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Posted: February 25 2020 at 8:47pm |
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Well at least we're all in the same boat Med. We'll have problems here in NZ. It's already hitting our economy as our biggest exports are to China. Our health service is excellent but like every one around the world it doesn't operate day to day with a huge excess capacity just waiting to be filled by a pandemic. We're testing like mad but still haven't got a case so I can't help but wonder if our tests are faulty. Before the travel ban, we had 2000 people a day arriving from China. Surely we must have it? |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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FluMom
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Posted: February 25 2020 at 8:55pm |
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By Babycat's graphs the old people are going to take it in the ear. Just hope I can SIP before I get it.
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Medclinician
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Posted: February 25 2020 at 10:21pm |
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You know I am in a hospital with the Flu my right arm and leg useless after a massive stroke? This entry typed with a single thumb.So hugs long overdue. I was just told we have,enough food and drugs for two years. Don't give up. I still have to get Pandemic Now to tell you and millions how to survive this. We both will. Medclinician |
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"not if but when" the original Medclinician
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FluMom
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Posted: February 25 2020 at 10:32pm |
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I agree Med! I never give up I just keep going like the energizer bunny. You take care of yourself I have enough food for a year but only drugs enough for 3 months. Hugs to you and your family,
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BabyCat
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Posted: February 25 2020 at 10:49pm |
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Kiwimum, at least your health service is actively looking for infected. The US? Nope. Willfully blind. I get the feeling I had when watching Hurricane Katrina build up offshore to a Cat 5, watching the forecast tracks, reading the warnings about New Orleans susceptibility, and thinking..surely the government must see what I'm seeing, surely they're helping prepare others, surely they're doing something. The National Weather Service warnings were as apocalyptic as I have EVER read, anywhere, anytime. Look them up sometime if you are interested. Surely, there was at least an organization who was seeing the big picture.
Nope. I stayed up all night and watched it wind up and send an Mike Tyson uppercut into New Orleans jaw. Knock out. I knew it hit, and hit bad. Surely, I thought, there's someone at the state or national level going to do something, soon. Nope. We're sitting ducks, in a sense, and on our own for a while. That's my mindset. |
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BabyCat
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Posted: February 25 2020 at 10:55pm |
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And by the way, Flumom, although those over 60 do have a higher increase in CFR, I think what's more likely to happen before a complete wave of infections washes over the US, various communities where it's broken out (I'm thinking places like SF, LA, or even a smaller town or two (like Italy),) then we'll see waves of SIP orders for those areas, and everyone else in the country will react by staying inside, social distancing, etc. This will give even more time. Hotspots and lockdowns. Hotspots and lockdowns. Rolling 14-day community quarantine/SIP orders, that's how I imagine it.
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CRS, DrPH
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Posted: February 25 2020 at 10:56pm |
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Med, we are SO sorry to learn of your stroke, man!! Thank you for hanging in there and contributing! Best wishes, friend. I have a feeling that COVID-19 won't be that bad, although there will be mortalities, it won't be 1918 part two. That would happen if Kawaoka's lab at Univ of WI in Madison accidentally lets loose of his GOF experiments with H5N1 and H7N9. Captain Trips stuff. |
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CRS, DrPH
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Newbie1A
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Posted: February 26 2020 at 5:59am |
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   That sentence just sounds like totally YIKES! |
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If it's to be - it's up to me!
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Medclinician
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Posted: February 26 2020 at 8:41am |
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Thank you for the well wishes. I'll still today on Fox seeing a death toll of 15 with 95 cases in Iran . This a mutating virus. Let's hope this strain doesn't breed like crazy in Iran. Other countries are banning travel. The U.S. was and is not ready medically to deal with this.
Medclinician |
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"not if but when" the original Medclinician
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Sheep Lady
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Posted: February 26 2020 at 11:29am |
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Med, I remember you saying "not if, but when" for years. Too bad the talking heads had to copycat the best...no originality. Makes me wonder who else's playbook they are following. Heck of a time to have all this coming at you. Prayers you are on the mend. |
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Sheep Lady
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CRS, DrPH
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Posted: February 26 2020 at 12:18pm |
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I know too much stuff, thanks to my work with the FBI. COVID-19 is tame compared to the stuff I study. Let's hope it all stays bottled up. |
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CRS, DrPH
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Albert
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Posted: February 26 2020 at 12:38pm |
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Chuck - you will love Med lol. Med works on the X-File branch of Fed Gov't, lol.
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https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk
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Medclinician
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Posted: February 26 2020 at 7:35pm |
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"not if but when" the original Medclinician
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Medclinician
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Posted: February 26 2020 at 7:59pm |
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Well, DT did get the 2. 5 billion right but did not count all those in the U.S. that others let in. Solano County first case of unknown origin - and San Francisco has declared a city emergency. You know I first said "Don't panic prepare". So, it is good we are looking at 4-8 Billion maybe. It is still scary "Not if, but when"
Medclinician
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"not if but when" the original Medclinician
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CRS, DrPH
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Posted: February 26 2020 at 11:32pm |
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On the other hand, keep your eyes on the "public health industrial complex." I've seen this type of thing all too often....PH built up a cottage industry for H5N1, and uh, what happened with that?
Pushing coronavirus panic: one WHO expert’s outrageous recordFebruary 26, 2020 | 8:04pm No one really knows how hard COVID-19 will hit the world: It’s impossible to trust any data out of China, and it’s too early to learn much from coronavirus cases in other nations. And even “experts” can be deceptive. We’re thinking in particular of the World Health Organization’s Bruce Aylward, who told reporters Tuesday in Geneva: “Big conclusion for the world is — it’s simply not ready.” More: The world “could get ready very fast, but the big shift has to be in the mindset of how we’re going to manage the disease.” Risibly, he suggested imitating China — which, in fact, clearly bungled the early stages of its epidemic. Reality check: Back in October 2014, Aylward warned that new global Ebola cases could reach 10,000 a week “by the first week in December.” In fact, they hit just 529 that week. As Michael Fumento noted in these pages at the time, “the Ebola epidemic peaked a full month before” Aylward made his prediction — and WHO data showed it. The sad truth is that global health bureaucrats use these outbreaks to push for greater funding, with utter disregard for the truth. Go ahead and prepare in case COVID-19 does break out in America — but watch out for self-interested panic-mongers, too. |
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CRS, DrPH
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carbon20
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Posted: February 26 2020 at 11:58pm |
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I dont believe anyone,
only trust my own Common sense,
Which is telling me there's no harm in getting a few Bags of this and tins of that....... What will be will be........ |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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Medclinician
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Posted: February 27 2020 at 8:40am |
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There are more cases of Covid-19 in Iran. From The Guaurdian are 139 cases where 1 9 have died. From other sources are as high as 254 cases. Japan has shut down schools. Update this minute - now 26 dead - The highest number of deaths outside Mainland China. The Vice--President of Iran was infected and on video announcing the new information.
Medclinician |
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"not if but when" the original Medclinician
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jacksdad
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Posted: February 27 2020 at 10:25am |
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Sorry, Med. my dear old Dad had us all beat. One of his go-to phrases when I was a kid was “it’s not a case of if - it’s a case of when”. Before prepping was even a thing, I remember him predicting a “plague”.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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CRS, DrPH
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Posted: February 27 2020 at 11:04am |
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Likewise! My late Dad was a naval intelligence officer in WW2, and he taught me about preparing for nuclear war when I was perhaps 10. That is over 40 years ago. He was also a lifetime Boy Scout leader, and our motto is "be prepared!"
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CRS, DrPH
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Medclinician
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Posted: February 27 2020 at 7:49pm |
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Perhaps "Not if but when" has been said but I said it before the 2009 Pandemic and posted here for 10 years No person,wrote Pandemic Now. And is now - despite for money reasons - not declared. Over 3200 points in 4 days crashed the Dow.
Medclinician
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"not if but when" the original Medclinician
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CRS, DrPH
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Posted: February 27 2020 at 9:11pm |
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Yep, my expert sources (top notch) are already confirming what we knew, i.e. it is a pandemic. If it looks like a duck etc. Stock markets will likely go down even further. The global economy has been weakened by Chinese trade war, Brexit etc., so our international systems are already fragile. I'm not worried about disease as much as I'm worried about economic disruption. Take care, Med!
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CRS, DrPH
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jacksdad
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Posted: February 27 2020 at 10:19pm |
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Exactly, Chuck. It’s not the virus - it’s the damage it can do to our way of life that we should be worried about.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Technophobe
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Posted: February 28 2020 at 5:10am |
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Same page here.
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Medclinician
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Posted: February 28 2020 at 2:08pm |
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So Bii Gates thinks it. Is a Pandenic too |
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"not if but when" the original Medclinician
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Medclinician
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Posted: March 11 2020 at 8:18pm |
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Today it has become The Coronovirus Pandemic. The hospital I am at went to lockdown. 4 passengers got off from the liner in Oakland in Pacific Grove 3 miles away. Today it was called a Pandemic yet only a CFR of about 3%. A lot of panic over something far less dangerous than this year's flu. Medclinician |
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"not if but when" the original Medclinician
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EdwinSm,
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Posted: March 12 2020 at 1:50am |
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This year's flu has a CFR of about 0.1% so the Coronavirus is much more deadly.. What it hasn't had the chance to do is spread to infect at least 10% of the population. Even if it reaches just 1% of the population then the Wuhan-Bat Sars-Cov2 virus will be more deadly than the flu. |
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Kilt5
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Posted: March 12 2020 at 2:59am |
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(CNN)For the first time in 11 years, the World Health Organization has declared a pandemic as a top US health official calls for "all hands on deck" to fight coronavirus. |
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Technophobe
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Posted: March 12 2020 at 4:03am |
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There is a vaccine for flu, not a perfect one but far better than none at all which is what we have for covid19. Plus flu is seasonal, there is no evidence that covid19 is. Finally, when your kid gets flu you know, you put him to bed and he infects few people. If he gets the wu, you don't know and the whole school, the postman, everyone at your local wallmart and the corner shop catch it at the same time. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Technophobe
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Posted: April 01 2020 at 8:22am |
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This virus kills more sufferers than the seasonal flu, this virus hospitalises more than the seasonal flu, this virus is more contagious than the seasonal flu. We do not have a full set of statistics yet, but it may yet 'outperform' the 1918 flu. The flu has vaccines - but not the wu, we (as a species) have some flu immunity - but none for the wu, there are drugs to fight the flu - there are none for this wu. This damn bug mutates faster than the flu as well. Our hospitals are already overwhelmed and it has barely started cutting its swathe through the world. This probably kills around 3% - unless/until you get the nastier L strain* and your health system fails - then the CFR goes up and up and up. Worst projections say 10% - but that does not take places like India into account. To compare this to the flu is akin to comparing one man with a rifle to an approaching army with ICBMs. Both kill. *Seasonal flu requires a vaccine change every couple of years due to its mutation rate. For instance last year's flus are circulating again this year. The Wu has been around since December and there are (to my knowledge) about 5 strains now. The more people who get it, the more mutations can emerge. Don't be afraid, be terrified! |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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CRS, DrPH
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Posted: April 01 2020 at 8:44am |
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^Thanks, Techno, well said. This ain't no flu. We have many more tools to fight seasonal flu (antivirals like Tamiflu and Relenza) and we understand the dynamics of flu very well, since we start looking for emergent strains early. This thing just jumped out of a box at us. Since we lack immunity, all of us who are doing a good job of avoiding this virus with social distancing/STFH practice can expect another go-around in future waves. Experts predict that SARS-CoV2 will join the mix of other circulating corona viruses which tend to have low lethality, so those of us who are at low risk at present will likely get a dose of this thing in coming months/years. That being said, I'm impressed with the progress being made on the medical front. Even serious cases of COVID-19 resulting in ICU hospitalization can, and have been, turned around with supportive care and use of ventilators. There are many prospective antiviral drugs being tested, and some of these are likely to help reduce the severity of infection. A vaccine is a long way off, but I think we will eventually have one, and it will likely help in the global fight against other potential pandemic threats like MERS. We are all on a big cruse-ship called Planet Earth, all we can do is support one another and be vigilant. Best wishes to all, Chuck |
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Medclinician wrote: